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BTC1! trade ideas

Bitcoin CME Gap finally filled That CME gap that was created on 22 March has finally been Filled. For me, the pressure has been on PA to Dip back into that gap to fill it and so we have been ranging above it for weeks. This takes the battle lines between Bulls and Bears to a higher level. PA can move on. But will It ? Hong Kong just approved BTC And ETH ETF's. We may see outflows from USA BTC ETF's and Inflows into Hong Kong now.... We need to watch that space very closely because if the Flows are Large, the USA has to approve ETF for ETH pretty quick
CME:BTC1!
by Orriginal
The Local Line in the Sand for ESE-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5207.75, down 52.50 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,196.75, down 163.00 E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower after a barrage of negative news. CPI for March was a touch warmer than expected, coming in roughly one-tenth higher across the board before a poor 10-year Note auction lifted yields further. The U.S. 10-year Note yield rose by 20bps from 4.36 to 4.56, and according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds for a rate cut in June fell to 16.9%, while July shows a 43.7% probability. Now, we brace for an ECB policy decision, PPI data at 7:30 am CT, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices and a 30-year Bond auction at noon CT. This has certainly put stock index futures on their back foot. Still, on a positive note, the low in each of the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ that traded in the immediate aftermath of the CPI release was never taken out during the intraday session. For the E-mini S&P this low aligns to create a critical line in the sand with the 50% retracement back to the February 13th low at 5163.75-5176.50. We will look for construction above here to help shift tides more positively as the rest of the week unfolds. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 5203.75-5208.25***, 5214.75-5217**, 5223-5226.50***, 5030.75**, 5241-5244.25***, 5260.25***, 5272-5274.25***, 5280.75-5285**, 5295.25-5300.75***, 5207-5208.50*** Pivot: 5191.50-5196.75 Support: 5185-5188.25**, 5163.75-5176.50***, 5145-5147.25***, 5123.75-5124.25***, 5112.25*** NQ (June) Resistance: 18,215-18,224***, 18,264**, 18,313-18,350**, 18,405-18,414***, 18,474-18,498**, 18,568-18,607***, 18,691-18,709*** Pivot: 18,185 Support: 18,102-18,118*** 18,051-18,070***, 18,006-18,029***, 17,767-17,881**** Crude Oil (May) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 86.21, up 0.98 Crude Oil futures slipped early yesterday due to the broader risk-off sentiment, and saw further selling on larger builds within the weekly EIA inventory data. However, price action held major three-star support (newly adjusted to 84.55-84.69 and 84.90-85.10) before geopolitical premium brought a fresh bid as news flow called an Iranian strike on Israel imminent. Price action is again slipping into the onset of U.S. hours and with support well-defined, we will look to a pivot and point of balance at 86.02. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 85.29**, 86.58-86.71**, 86.91-87.10***, 87.07-87.22**, 88.37-88.64*** Pivot: 86.02 Support: 84.90-85.10***, 84.55-84.69***, 84.04-84.09**, 83.71***, 83.12-83.25*** Micro Bitcoin (April) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 70,410, up 1,055 Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 71,355**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600***, 74,800-75,300***, 80,503***, 82,110*** Pivot: 70,355-70,410 Support: 69,990-70,005**, 68,540-68,785**, 67,75-68,034***, 66,330-66,500***, 64,715-65,260***, 62,955-63,435**, 60,830-61,680*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:MBT1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Bitcoin Halving 2024 – This Time It’s DifferentREPORT HIGHLIGHTS: The fourth bitcoin halving event, scheduled on or around April 19, 2024, heralds a significant transformation in the cryptocurrency landscape. This halving, marked by the reduction of bitcoin supply subsidy, the emergence of a liquid investment ecosystem via CME Group futures and options, the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the introduction of Ordinals, brings forth novel dynamics that could reshape prevailing narratives around bitcoin economics. The Halving Mechanics At its core, the quadrennial halving event entails a reduction in the reward granted to miners for each block mined on the bitcoin blockchain (the block subsidy) as determined by the bitcoin protocol. It is scheduled to occur roughly every four years, or every 210,000 blocks until the entire 21 million bitcoin supply is mined, approximately by 2140. As part of bitcoin's deflationary approach to its capped supply, the upcoming halving will reduce the bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 bitcoin per block to 3.125 bitcoin, fostering a more stringent supply landscape. By gradually decreasing the number of bitcoin entering into circulation, and, so long as the adoption of bitcoin grows over time, the halving mechanism ensures that the laws of supply and demand will consistently impact the value of the asset. Satoshi Nakamoto, in the bitcoin whitepaper's Incentives section, noted: “In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes. I’m sure that in 20 years, there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.” Impact on Price Dynamics Source: CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate Historically, each halving event has been accompanied by a significant surge in bitcoin price in the months preceding and following the event. Notably, in the 365 calendar days after the November 28, 2012, halving, bitcoin prices rose 8,447%, when the reward was cut from 50 bitcoin to 25 bitcoin. In the year following the July 9, 2016 halving, bitcoin prices rose a more modest, but still impressive, 283%, and the block reward was reduced to 12.5 bitcoin. In the 12 months after the May 11, 2020 halving, where the reward was cut to 6.25 bitcoin per block, bitcoin prices jumped 527%. The pre-halving rally has shown a diminishing trend over time, likely due to miners selling off their bitcoin holdings to secure profits ahead of the impeding reward reduction. Nevertheless, the historical pattern suggests the potential for bitcoin to reach new all-time highs in the aftermath of the 2024 halving. Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs The landscape surrounding bitcoin has evolved significantly, particularly with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the influx of institutional capital into the market. These ETFs have generated substantial daily demand, surpassing the pace of new bitcoin supply even before the halving and have the potential to absorb a considerable portion of the limited new issuance, To put the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows into perspective, at the current rate of block rewards, the bitcoin network produces about 900 new coins per day, or around $54 million worth of bitcoin (assuming an average price per coin of $60k). In April 2024, issuance will fall to 450 coins, or about $27 million worth of bitcoin. During the month of February, net inflows into the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs averaged $208 million per day, far outstripping the pace of new supply, even before the halving. This imbalance between new demand and limited new issuance has likely contributed to the strong upward pressure on the price. Evolution of a Large Liquid Derivatives Market The emergence of a robust, regulated derivatives market facilitated by CME Group Bitcoin futures and options marks a fundamental shift in the narrative surrounding the halving for three key reasons: it enables price risks to be hedged, facilitates the management of bitcoin demand risk and provides market participants with actionable price discovery. Miners typically sold their bitcoin for fiat currency as they mined them, to pay for operational costs. This constant selling meant that price appreciation was measured. After a halving event, miners would have fewer bitcoin to sell, meaning the price could go up. Mining is now dominated by larger, often publicly traded, companies and with a liquid regulated derivatives market, it is possible for these firms to hedge and lock in future bitcoin prices to cover expenses without selling their coins. If this is the case, then selling pressure from miners is less likely to act as a drag on bitcoin prices going forward. Through the emergence of a healthy options market, investors can take price signals and consensus estimates about market expectations. Options could allow for additional income to be earned by miners or enhance long bitcoin positions, which would further cushion the impact of the upcoming halving. A higher number of investors and traders means better liquidity and enhanced price stability for bitcoin. It’s worth noting that bitcoin has become less volatile in recent years, with fewer extreme moves both to the upside and to the downside (link to Erik.N’s article). Growing institutional participation drove Bitcoin futures average daily open interest to over $11 billion so far in March (+29,000 contracts). Year- to- date average daily volume in Bitcoin futures at CME Group is roughly $4 billion (+15,400 contracts). Large Open Interest Holders (a LOIH is any entity that holds at least 25 Bitcoin futures or Micro Bitcoin futures contracts) reached a record of 272 holders, indicating growing institutional interest for bitcoin exposure. Impact on Miners The impeding halving poses challenges and opportunities for miners, as evidenced by shifts in miner behavior and industry dynamics. Decreased bitcoin reserves held by miners, coupled with heightened competition and record high hashrates, underscore the need for operational efficiency and strategic adaptation. The number of bitcoin held in wallets associated with miners has dropped to the lowest level since July 2021, suggesting that miners are perhaps capitalizing on bitcoin's recent price surge, running down their inventory ahead of the halving or leveraging them to raise capital for upgrading machinery and mining facilities. The bitcoin hashrate, a measure of network security, is near an all-time high and a sign of high competition, meaning miners need to marshal ever more computing power to earn new rewards. The difficulty in mining a single block is also at a record, and with high energy prices, the mining landscape remains tough. In previous cycles, there weren't many large-scale miners and even fewer publicly traded ones. The halving may catalyze merger and acquisition activities among mining firms, driving industry consolidation and fostering innovation in sustainable mining practices. Several publicly listed mining firms have already indicated they will use the halving to capitalize on strategic opportunities as mining rewards decrease and competition among miners intensifies. Depending on the operational cost of each miner, less efficient, unprofitable miners may be forced to leave the network or merge with larger companies to survive. In a more competitive landscape, miners will be driven to enhance their overall operational efficiency, including machine optimization, enhanced security and best-in-class risk management practices. This could likely spur increased innovation throughout incumbent mining technologies and methodologies, ultimately benefiting the industry as a whole. As the world becomes increasingly conscious of environmental impact, bitcoin miners that are at the forefront of adopting eco-friendly, sustainable practices and renewable solutions, such as carbon capture and heat waste recycling, will likely ensure that the future of crypto aligns with global sustainability and ESG goals. The rise of Ordinals The recent surge in retail demand can be attributed in part to the rise of bitcoin Ordinals BRC 20 tokens, which are reshaping the crypto landscape. These tokens, often likened to “NFTs for Bitcoin,” have the potential to drive on-chain activity and increase transaction fees, thereby bolstering miners’ revenue streams amidst declining block rewards post-halving. Long Term Outlook Bitcoin’s designation as digital gold underscores its role as a store of value, particularly amidst the scarcity reinforced by halving events. Institutional investors who view bitcoin as a hedge against inflation may find the halving supportive of its perceived value. Shifts in central bank policies, such as prolonged higher interest rates and potential quantitative easing measures, could further bolster bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation. Looking ahead, the implication of bitcoin’s programmed scarcity intersecting with evolving demand dynamics remains intriguing. With 28 more halving events expected over the next 112 years, the future trajectory of bitcoin adoption and network growth warrants close monitoring – especially when broader retail and institutional access to bitcoin was only made possible in the U.S. less than 90 days ago with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. In conclusion, while past having cycles, with the associated price rallies offer valuable insights, the 2024 halving presents a unique confluence of factors that could usher in a new era for bitcoin. As institutional and retail interest converges with regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts, maintaining a balanced perspective is imperative to navigating the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available on TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Payal Shah, Director of Equity Research and Product Development at CME Group. *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:MBT1!Education
by CME_Group
9
75: BTC Hits Target of $62K, What Can We Expect Next?Bitcoin has once again surged to new heights, hitting the anticipated target of $62,000. As traders, it's crucial to reassess our strategies and expectations in light of this milestone. Technical Analysis: Following an extended bullish run, it's reasonable to anticipate a slowdown and a potential pullback. Taking profits at this juncture might be a prudent move. Key support levels to monitor are at $46,000 and $30,000, which have historically demonstrated significance in Bitcoin's price action. Upside Potential: Despite the possibility of a slowdown, the bullish momentum remains palpable. With institutions continuing to pour funds into the market, the upside potential remains considerable. Setting our sights on $95,000 as the next major target seems justified, considering the ongoing institutional interest and broader market sentiment. Institutional Influence: It's essential to acknowledge the increasing involvement of institutional players in the cryptocurrency space. While their influx of capital has undoubtedly contributed to Bitcoin's meteoric rise, it's worth noting that their positions are continuously growing. This suggests that the current bullish trend may still have room to evolve further. Price Action Outlook: While a pullback would align with traditional market dynamics, Bitcoin has repeatedly defied expectations with its volatility and resilience. Hence, while a clean pullback is a plausible scenario, there's also the possibility of the upward trajectory persisting. In summary, while it's prudent to prepare for a potential slowdown and consider taking profits, the overall outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. With institutional interest showing no signs of abating, the path to $95,000 seems increasingly plausible. However, it's essential to remain vigilant and adaptable in response to evolving market dynamics.
CME:BTC1!
by Soldi75
BTC1! - HARD TO BUY AT THE TOP? - BUY AT THE RED LINE - WEEKLYBTC Future price is ranging at the top of his historical price range zone. We feel that there is a potential for the price to just leave earth and go beyond easily and at the same time deception can occur with possibility to see the price squeeze down buyers before going in its potential historical run up to new highs. This is when DCA or Entry could potentially be done at the RED LINE zone. Long Entry to not miss history! Who still believe that it could go to zero? here fundamental analysis is necessary depending on how regulation is going to evolve in the next years....
CME:BTC1!
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
$BTC top could very well be inOpinion: CRYPTOCAP:BTC is likely forming a short term top. Top is March 14th. We've posted that consolidation takes anywhere between 1-3 months on average. 1 month from top would be April 13th. Coincidentally, it's where the end of the #BTC pattern would break. Sell signs signs have been there, RSI & $ Flow have been cratering. ----------------------------------------- Let's do another scenario. Top = 3/14, 3 months from then puts it at 6/14. The #BTC pattern can last until 6/6/23 (ooo 666). If #bitcoin is in a hard consolidation the pattern could last until July 15th, making it a 4 month consolidation.
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC