Next Price Movement My prediction for the next move of the market will be a drop of more than 3500 points and then move up to complete the scenario mentioned in the previous post.
YM1! trade ideas
The beginning of a bear market!Hi
My yesterday analysis had a mistake!!
The market will Drop and then go to Fake BrakeOut ATH and then Hello to bear market :)
DJIA SHORTshort djia as per the given levels shown in the zigzag waves , do remember to add proper stoploss that will be swing high + few more points - to avoid the hunting spikes .
The beginning of a bear market!This is my prediction of the market situation in the next few years...
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Remember this analysis to review it in the next few years.
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Hello bear market :)
YM Dow spike and channel pattern, Break of pattern = 37% dumpThe final push up in this spike and channel pattern. I don't know when it will resume the up move and from where. I also don't know what the top will be. I will trade the bearish break of this pattern. There is about 1000 points left to the upside.
I got in too early back on the 18th and will wait until it gets up to my levels.
Short Term Bullish until February 9th-15th
January FOMC probable no rate changes
Long Term Bearish
March FOMC possible rate cut/ Pivot = Dump
Statistics show price trading roughly 3% lower into the Fed Pivot
YM Bullflag Pull Back Into FOMC Bullish What I am seeing is a bull flag in a sideways range. It poked above and failed. Most likely pulling back into the half way point. Pulling back getting ready for the FOMC next Wednesday for a, more than likely, bullish FOMC. I believe we have one final push up before the 37% sell off down to 23,000.
I am currently short, notated by the orange line. I admit I got in too early and still am underwater. I am still 100% confident the sell off is around February 20th and will have to endure a bit more upside.
Dow Futures (YM) Pullback Should Find Support in 3, 7, 11 SwingShort Term view on Dow Futures suggests rally from 10.27.2023 low ended at 38113 as wave (3). Pullback in wave (4) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave W ended at 37470 and wave X ended at 38038. Wave Y lower ended at 37298 as the 1 hour chart below shows. This completed wave (4) in higher degree. The Index has resumed higher in wave (5).
Internal subdivision of wave (5) takes the form of a 5 waves impulse structure. Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 37897 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 37633. Index then resumes higher in wave ((iii)) towards 38157. Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 38061 and final leg wave ((v)) ended at 38302. This completed wave 1 in higher degree. Expect Index to pullback in wave 2 in 7 swing as a double three Elliott Wave structure. The first 3 swing lower is in progress and can reach 37731 – 37930 where wave ((w)) should end. Afterwards, it should rally in wave ((x)) before turning lower again in 3 waves to complete wave ((y)) of 2. As far as pivot at 37298 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
YM DOW JONES 8 Year Gameplan 2032 Buy At 20,000 Hold 200,000My personal gameplan on how I am tackling these sideways choppy markets.
First, I will sell this 37% sell off that is about to occur February 20th
Second, I will buy for the explosive short squeeze 60%, wait for the dip and buy off the rising wedge bottom for another 12,000 points
Third, I will sell the upcoming 49% sell off on year 2029.
Finally, the bottom will be in place at 20,000 in 2032 and I will be holding for next 15 years until DOW 200,000
The chart I am presenting is the weekly chart. I have the up channel drawn with 4 channel lines. The bottom channel line will line up with 2029's 49% sell off.
YM DOW JONES Final 6% Rally Before -37% Sell Off March TopThis is going to be a repeat of my prior post as I now have more up to date information on the 37% dump that is around the corner. It will be hard for me to thouroughly explain what it is that I am personally seeing but I will try.
First off, I am basing this entire thesis on 1969 as price action is lining up near identical. I first noticed this back in September of 2023. Here is a monthly chart of 1969.
Evidence:
Bearish rising wedge up at the top of the up channel
Rising monthly 200sma coinciding with the demand zone from the prior crash. 1962 and 2019 respectively.
The October "Low" that bounced off the minor price support of the 1962/2019 crash
A "bounce" of 15-20% off of the monthly 21ema at the bottom of the rising wedge during the last push up before the ultimate dump
Now onto the daily time frame:
Starting with 1969 with the big rip off the monthly 21ema
Now onto 2024 daily, notice the same wide separation of the daily's 21 and 200
From that rip off the monthly 21ema, in 1969 it was a 15% rally, pullback into daily 21ema then another 6% rally before that was all she wrote. Start of the down trend -37% sell off.
2024 rip off the monthly 21ema with a projected 20% rally followed by the same 6% rally at the top before it dumps
Thank you for being patient with my and me trying to explain what I am seeing. Feel free to leave your reply below. Am I seeing things? There seems to be too many similarities to fully ignore.
US30 Full AnalysisPrice Action:
It is time for the monthly price to get back to the mean reversal where the Weekly open/close is inside-bar (but broke the low). Price hovering around the inside-bar is prone to break on either side.
On the Daily structure, we have 3 days of Dojis, bearish engulfing followed by Gravestone Doji followed by two days of bearish doji and the price is moving in the channel.
I expect monthly/weekly price to test the baseline while price from daily and below timelines are already below the Baseline in TDI.
SK System:
After sustaining a recent high, the price is respecting the SK Levels.
My Bias is SHORT, if not SL and up, and shall look for the LONG.
NB: US30, NAS100, S&P have a correlated move but both NAS & S&P price action are very distinct from US30. Let us Observe :-)
YM Thursday Guess. Trying To Improve My Pre Game PlanAnything can happen tomorrow. I am only making this post as a personal skill development of trying to improve my strategy and try to figure out what the market tries to do. I may be completely wrong and I am ok with that. I will react to what the market does in the moment. This is mostly a thought experiment.
YM DOW Sell Set Up On 1 Hour RTH Chart Wednesday 17th JanI will be looking for a couple more green candles to rally into the declining hourly 21ema. I will keep raising up my sell limit order under the body of the highest green candle until a red candle eliminates it. The candle can rally past the 21ema by a bit and is still acceptable, in fact, preferable. This would "close" the gap and hit stops up high.
I will be placing a stop above the high of that bar and will be using a 125 point stop. My target is a fixed 2 to 1 or 250 points. It has room for 450 points down to the red support line but I don't care. I am only taking my 2 to 1.
Dropping down to the 15 minute, the rally would be into the declining 200sma, which should halt it in its tracks. Its ok if it pops above by a little bit
Dow Jones YM Week of January 15-19 Expected Range BoundI am expecting another choppy range week and will buy the lows, sell the highs. Will take it slow this week and try to avoid getting chopped up.
I am only going to allow 2-3 trades per day.
I am only going to allow 2 losses per day as Max daily loss
I am only going to allow 2 winners in a row as Max profit protection
I will only do 2:1 on every one of my trades and at the end of the week, add up my P/L stats.
I will try to shoot for 50-60% win rate.
10 trades at 2 to 1 at 50% win rate is 5% gain.
Buy mini dow 37750 limit if filled, stop at 37018, tgt is open Looking to buy mini Dow ahead/ right after CPI report with a 37750 limit
if filed, stop at 37018, tgt is open
YMCurrently YM is in an upward trend, but when it breaks the red average indicated by the blue arrow and enters the green zone, we open a buy deal.
YM weekly analysis Jan 15-19 2024Strong bullish trend.
We have buyside liquidity above old weeks highs.
Below the previous week low we have a FVG that’s not been tested yet.
At the Moment, the 20 SMA is the "Tell"Right now, many indexes are breaking under the 20 SMA, while the /ES and /NQ remain above it. I deal in probabilities. If the other indexes continue to stay under the 20 SMA, then the probability is the the ES and NQ will break under them.
YM Daytrade Buy Channel Range Bottom Limit Order 37701I put my limit order at 50% of the last 15 minute fat bar. I am waiting for a pullback for a trap shorts. The 200sma on both the 15minute and the 5 minute is flat. My stop is 49 ticks with target at 37864 just before resistance for 162 ticks. About 3.3 to 1
4 Hour Next Day CPI Pullback Setup IdeaI was tinkering around with news ideas and I have come up with this setup that I will try if market sets up with all my rules. I must have these rules in place, Most importantly, a fat CPI green bar followed by an even fatter, Bear engulfment bar. Once these are in place I will place a sell limit order in the middle of the golden pocket of that bear engulfment's High/Low range. I will target just a bit before that 50% mark of that prior fat green bar from December 13th.
December 13th 2022 setup blueprint
This post is merely a tutorial of sorts to show a potential 4 Hour Swing trade idea. I will give it a try. As long as my risk is contained then I am ok with the loss.
YM1 US30 - SMART MONEY BEARS? 📈💥Just a quick update – the Cpi has hit, and as a result, the YM1 US30 DOW JONES is now priced in. Yesterday's high and low prices have been swept, and the current price is in a state of flux. However, it seems that bears are starting to take over, and it's possible that the price will decrease since liquidity has already been swept and we are in extreme premium price. We'll have to wait and see if the price retraces and takes the lows from last week out.
YM DOW FUTURES Still Range Bound Topping Pattern My long term thesis is an 18 month sell off back down to the monthly rising 200sma. My only concern is when is the market going to start. We are bumping up on the yearly up channel. My guess is it might take a couple of months to get going.
Short term we have the CPI report in 12 hours. My best speculation is that it will be bullish and choppy to hit the stops up high and the top of the bear flag. I notice it is a bullish pullback on declining volume.
Also, on the weekly chart, the 10 week rally that we had so far, is also on declining volume. The short sell off before it was on increasing volume. I also noticed that on the weekly, the 21ema is flat, range bound and not respected by price. This is indicating a flagging pattern or consolidation pattern.
Here on the monthly, the topping process is forming. When will it start? I have no clue. The market takes it time to build up before it starts moving. Here on the monthly, it is like watching paint dry
YM1 US30 - SMART MONEY BULLISH MOMENTUM 📈💥US30 Dow Jones Retraces to Bullish 4-Hour Order Block
During the New York session, we capitalized on the demand from this area and took long positions once again as the US30 Dow Jones retraced to a bullish 4-hour order block.
