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10 Year T-Note Futures10 Year T-Note Futures10 Year T-Note Futures

10 Year T-Note Futures

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ZN1! trade ideas

10-YR. Using Fib's as sell zone.If you're late to the party, like I am, 10-year has been getting ridden way down in '21. I see the 'M' reversal double bottom. There are some subtle signs of bullishness, including flattening 200 MA. It's been a steep downhill run, and I would expect the momentum will continue with another spike low. but. every trend comes to an end. I would much rather be the one pushing the boulder than catching it, so I'm looking to sell in the upper Fibonacci area. Seeing as sellers have been letting price get pretty high before displaying control recently, This keeps me less interested in the .5 level. Also, my risk manager can't tolerate using the .5. Too much volatility. ---- Anybody else's crystal ball come out differently?
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by emehoke
2
A longer term perspective on BondsThe recent sell off in the bonds has been sharp and is having reverberations throughout the broader markets. This is a monthly chart looking at bond prices going back twenty years. I was surprised to find that although the current price action has felt extreme, the bonds are still well within a 2 standard deviation regression channel. I've drawn in some possible pathways for bond prices over the next decade. While I believe there's a fairly high probability that the bottom of the regression channel around 125'00'0 will be tested and prices will eventuate toward high value areas on the volume profile, the pathways are less of a forecast and more of an illustration of questions that I have. Specifically: will the highs around 142'00'0 during the March 2020 COVID crash be tested (and possibly taken out), or will they end up being the high for the foreseeable future? If Bond prices continue to fall, when will the FED step in and apply yield curve control? Most importantly, what effects will all of this have on the broader markets? In April 2019, the Federal Reserve released a report which stated that for every 2.5 move up in the DXY, there is a 10% decline in new C&I bank loan origination. Not only do falling bond prices lead to more challenging debt environments for businesses and consumers, they can lead to a stronger dollar thus putting deflationary pressures on an economy. Needless to say, trading bond positions on a Monthly time frame isn't really viable (or exciting) for most retail traders. However, keeping these kind of macro ideas in mind help me provide a context and framework toward my own trading.
CBOT:ZN1!
by InnerMotionTrading