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10 Year T-Note Futures10 Year T-Note Futures10 Year T-Note Futures

10 Year T-Note Futures

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ZN1! trade ideas

10Yr - A Very Clear Capital Return PanicSince January there has been a stealth accumulation out the Curve. In March it began to quietly accelerate. While Algo's drove ZN into the 131s, buyers were gobbling up each and every drive lower, building an outsized position which saw Volume peak in May from May 2nd to May 31st. Dark Pools began their acceleration in March. There is a clear trend deeply concerned with an "Event" - one which saw Volumes begin to accelerate June 16th. Volatility in Bonds should begin to pick up dramatically. Extreme Caution is warranted for Equity Complex, in particular Technology and Regional Banking. The VIX Curve, specifically SEP/OCT spread should be closely watched. We are seeing clear signs of Backwardation that could quickly invert.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
10 Year Treasury Note into Jackson Hole10yr Yields peaked at ~1.70 as the Federal Reserve began YCC (Yield Curve Control) well in advance of recognition by the Retail Bond Market. With a shortage of T-Bills and Janet Yellen attempting to Fund the Fiscal Malfeasance out the Curve in order to reduce Short Term funding. With CASH mounting in Money Market Funds, there remains a large pool of Cash with the potential to absorb further issuance while driving Notes to Bonds Yields even lower. The issue becomes the non-transitory nature of shortages, rates of labor, price levels for those of us keeping track and a number of perversions to the integrity of Data presented. There is a long history of Intervention Failures, the approaching one will be historic. Europe has by any measure, already defaulted. This Point of recognition is quickly approaching in August. It will spread and generate a panic.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
2
Similar bull flag visible on 10 year. Same but different.Here is almost the exact same trade from a signals and trigger standpoint. It's basically the same formation, but in a different market. ---- What is different about this one than from gold? Quite a lot actually. It's better to go through that kind of stuff on one's own, but what I would really want people to notice is this bond trade looks like it broke out of an area of consolidation, and is now using the flag to dip into a retest of a broken resistance area. Do not blow any fuses adding confluences to your trading, but if you can find places where it looks like all the bull tribes are uniting then you can find high probability areas where price will move higher from in the future.
CBOT:ZNU2021Long
by emehoke