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ZN1! trade ideas

Bonds Ranging Between Our LevelsBonds have edged up, but as predicted, are facing resistance at 128'24. We saw a red triangle on the KRI at this level to confirm resistance. Currently, we are seeking support at 128'10, which we also anticipated. Two green triangles on the KRI are suggesting support here. As discussed yesterday, bonds are establishing value between 128'10 and 128'24. The Kovach OBV has edged up, but has leveled off. If ZN is able to break through 128'24, then there is a vacuum zone to 129'11. Otherwise, we should see support at 128'00.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
ZN - 10 Year Note Futures / An important ChartThe importance of ZN as an Instrument cannot be overstated. It has been extremely technical and Reliable in assisting us in forecasting Rate Mid Curve and provided the ROC's for TNX. Today's MAcro Data begins with the CPI @ 8:30 AM EST using the new Base Effect from the BLS. ______________________________________________________ CPI is projected to be 4%. Food prices have already increased substantially into 2022 as we indicated Mid-Q4 2021 - Pordiucer were going to begin passing along increases at an average rate of 20-23%. Energy continues to Rise as do Commodities, on balance, across the Board. M2 continues to move higher, as does the Fed's Balance Sheet. _______________________________________________________ The reaction to the CPI this morning will provide direction for the Indexes the balance of the week. Pricing Power is being passed along to end-users (consumers) at a time when the Federal Reserve is indicating they are about to begin an aggressive reduction in Liquidity and an accelerated pace of increases to the Fed Funds Rate. We have seen back to back ALGO driven increases in the ES / NQ / YM and indicated 10 Yr Yields would pullback ~ 1.81% (1.808 was close enough). 2021/2022 measured move is now .998 to 1.808 - a near doubling of the Mid Curve. ________________________________________________________ The Bond "safety" Trade wasn't entirely wrong until the Curve began to work its magic. We indicated in July Rates would begin rising again into the end of 2021. Where the Bond Buters lost sight of the Safety Trade was quite simple - Convention holds only when the Yield Curve is steepening. As YCC gave way to a FED backstop where the recycling ballooned the Fed's Balance Sheet and Auction after failed Auctions began to appear beginning at the long end of the Curve. My Thesis proved 100% correct, then as now. We anticipate a reaction to Mid Curve on today's ReCalc. Safe Trading.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
2
Have Bonds Bottomed??Bonds have stabilized at lows, and have started to form a range, as we suggested yesterday. We have started to find value just above 128'10, and below 128'24, the exact range we identified in the last report. After plummeting two full handles since the beginning of 2022 it was time for ZN to reach some sort of equilibrium before its next move. From here we expect value to continue to form at current levels. A relief rally is not out of the question, especially after such a selloff. If so, we could make a run for the 129 handle again. There is a large vacuum zone above to 129'11, which should be considered a max upper bound at this point. The floor seems to be 128'10 for now. The Kovach OBV is still quite bearish, so there is little hope for a genuine bull rally any time soon.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Yields Soar, Treasuries Smash Lows!!Bonds have tumbled off soaring yields. Rising inflation seems to be one of the key drivers, along with paradoxically increasing risk on sentiment in stocks, as the indexes are testing new highs again. ZN smashed through support in 130 handle. We saw absolutely no support from 130'00, the final barrier to the 129 handle, and even less from 129'26, the first level in the 129's. We finally bottomed out (for now) at 129'11, one of the levels we have identified months back using inverse Fibonacci Extension levels. The Kovach OBV has fallen off a cliff with the selloff, but appears to be leveling off as the price stabilizes here. Anticipate some ranging at current levels are digested. The next level down is 128'24. If we catch a relief rally, then 129'26 should provide resistance.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
3 JANUARY 2022 10 YEAR T-NOTE DAILY BIAS ANALYSISSummary : Sideways market Confluence : -10&20 EMA (DAILY) = BEARISH -BEARISH SMS/FAILURE SWING - 1D ICT BEARISH FRESH ORDER BLOCK - MOST RECENT LIQUIDITY RUN ON MID TERM SWING HIGH (DAILY) Conclusion : -Bias = Bearish possible bullish even testing the 1D FRESH BEARISH OB , Bullish for Dollar, Bearish for Major Foreign Currencies (EUR,GBP, etc.) -Target = EQL -Probability = LOW, still very biased because it's still the first day in 2022, t-note still delayed, market still have to create a setup to go somewhere. Well it's safer to have a bias about the market condition. and trade later when the market unfold a high probability setup. -Suggestions = Find another confluence, in the dollar index & the pairs that you want to trade, Higher Time Frame Or Lower, wait till Tuesday/Wednesday.
CBOT:ZNZ2021Short
by wekelex
ZN - 10 Year Note Futures / Monthly @ 20 Yrs / The Abyss of DEBTIt is often said by Quantity Theorists echoing, Milton Friedman - "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Conditions... matter, they change as does the "moneyness of money" - but you can't keep the Chicago School of Economic mind poisoning down. That could be why I didn't play with academia, it is a toxic sandbox wed to a beach at times. Polluting the incoming tides. Friedman could not have imagined how awry his QT has been turned on its collective head. Gold Bugs to this day, quote this - scores of times every single day. "Were Gold Priced in DEBT it would be $250,000+" No one cares, least of all Central Banks who Demonetized it but made it legal to own under Nixon. You all swap fungibles for... Silver? A Weimar home? Taco Bell? Good luck, it's a Tier 1 asset on the Books of Central Banks for a reason and trades at a varying rate as it always has. Q of M clearly isn't tied to it and it's not chasing away Good Money for Bad any longer... those storied days passed very long ago. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Money loses its purchasing power parity in a number of ways - not simply through more money chasing goods and services, this is merely one-sided - "ceteris para bis" Jedi Mind Fuck at its finest. Causation is always assumed from the money supply increase to price rises...a very basic truth, but ONLY a precondition and not a fate acompli. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Fundamental causes of a general price inflation are still supply-side factors - for example, rises in wages or prices of factor input costs - which we see in the PMI data - to date not fully passed onto Consumes due to Supply-Side Shocks ) or demand-side ones - high demand causing price increases in markets. The fatal flaw is QMT assumes an exogenous money world and the wrong direction of causality. The contraction in Broad Money with a Credit Money System aka Bank Money is destroyed as people move to acquire CASH money or what is perceived to be a CASH Equivalent. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Simply Put: Aged Theory is flawed beyond. Supply Side Cocktails and the Ingredients of the CREDIT MONEY Elixirs are quite different than in 1963 Uncle Milty. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Speaking of Credit (DEBT MONEY if you can al it that) the BOE recently raised rates. China, faced with new lockdowns surrounding the - Credit Squeeze (TY to Shevchenko for the prod to dig in and determine WTF) . Turns out 6 property developers including the "Grande" have deferred wages the CCP now says must be paid by the start of the Lunar New Year, oh and... yer gonna need to pay $21.37 Billion in Bonds or default. Sounds bad huh? Not remotely... Back wages amount to $174.38 Billion, can't pay 'em? Lock 'em down, which is precisely what the CCP is setting up to avoid immense Social upheaval. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Are we seeing a trend appear? We are indeed. Debt Defaults have been propped by Governments to stave off tragic Social disruptions. Hardly a footstep in the direction of Trust for Journey of 1,000 miles to default. S'ok China, yer not alone, we proudly stand with you, although we've been at tit longer on this turn, so we're just better at wallpapering over it with Currency Seniorage. Yaun / Renminbi - only one works inside and one outside. Hmmm... That could not possibly happen here in the US of A, could it? Naw. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ When you destroy the Moneyness of Money with it goes all attendant prior theory as well as the very thing used to bring Money into Circulation @ Tier One - The BOND MARKETS. Fractional Reserve Banking merely extends it to obscene levels of Leverage and DEBT which are far beyond repayment. Toss in the 6% Vig the FED takes for this privilege and after a hundred or so years, they end up owning everything. They are, after all, the lender of last resort, the DTC merely the record keeper for when the payments halt and DEBT becomes unserviceable. What are your opportunity costs to Debt? What do you value? Forget Price it's no longer a metric for the sane, merely a distended and starved stomach. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Moral: When Risks are ignored, they are mispriced...
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
7
Bonds Gain as Stocks Sell OffBonds have picked up as stocks have sold off due to increased risk sentiment. We have edged up to 131'02, the technical level we discussed yesterday. The Kovach OBV has picked up significantly, but is starting to level off as ZN finds value in the low 131 handle. We are gradually trekking up in a zig zag pattern, but will face resistance at the next technical level at 131'12. This is a relative high for December which will be difficult to break as we enter the holiday week for Christmas next week. We should have support from below at 130'26 and 130'19.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
2
The Bond Marekt Awaits Inflation DataBonds have continued their slow decline trough support at 130'07 and are hovering just above 130'00. We are starting to see support form in the middle of the vacuum zone between these two levels, confirmed by two green triangles forming on the KRI. Both Kovach momentum indicators have dropped precipitously, which might indicate that we are staring to become oversold and that 130'00 is a floor for now. If we see a relief rally, watch 130'07 or 130'19 for a target. If we continue to decline and break 130'00 then 129'26 is the next target. ZN is likely not to make any significant moves until CPI data comes out this morning.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy