Short 10YToday shorting 10 rates year future. More than a 1 SD move up so feel like what goes up must come down.
TNX.P trade ideas
TNX ZN TKT ZB - 10Year / 20Year / 30YearSh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically
crushed.
It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4.
One by one these are failing.
Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound.
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Short term, we'll see how YCC and an overall Market Panic can trend Yields.
The Fed has permitted the Bond Market to generate the necessary adjustments.
Strenght - historically has been in control of only the short end.
Operation twist is no longer relevant, the FED can simply clip coupons and trend into
expiration of Holdings while reinvesting across the entire Curve.
Sadly, engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC) crossed the Rubicon.
My thesis has been proven entirely correct - instability by design.
TNX arrived! 10 years bond yield arrive at the top! Every moment that touch this trendline stocks decline and arrive at a bottom!
10 Yr T-note $TNX Break-out$TNX has broken out of its long-standing 35 year descending channel, first time breaking out above 50 EMA and pushinf towards 100 EMA since 1994.
The descending channel includes both the dot.com and housing bubbles without breaking above the 50 EMA.
Given add'l rate hikes on the table and bloated CB balance sheets, extreme supply of money in the markets, overnight reverse repo in the trillions... there's an incredibly long way to go walking back unfettered money printing, unless the Fed gives up and lets inflation run unabated.
Either way, TNX isn't done climbing.
Expecting a bear market rally to bring it back for a 50 EMA retest is reasonable and normal; however, the broader macroenvironment is unhealthy and there's more room for these yields to run this year.
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - The Everything Bubble is Popping!I have been going to great lengths in order to bring you a complete picture view of these types of changes that are happening in these charts.
Sometimes less is more.
During the process of writing my upcoming book I want to make sure that it ages well therefore I had to up my game.
The reason that it helps to know the exact patterns that have occurred in the past is that it will help you with improving the level confidence and about what moves you believe will happen next.
In the case of what we are seeing unfold now, it is like a perfect storm of patterns on these charts that really help confirm what the next move will look like.
In this case we are going to witness large impulsive moves that will rewrite history in terms of price and (or) percentage movements that break records and make history in the process.
Making the case for learning the waves puts you in control of your destiny instead of getting sucked into the constant and ever changing narratives and social mood biases.
I strongly encourage to challenge yourself to be able to read a chart like its second nature as it will clarify how you identify risks and opportunities.
I hope you enjoy this video and thank you for watching!
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
Bond Yields tell FED to BRING IT ONYields continue their upward thrust, calling on the FED's bluff yesterday. It says, "either you take responsibility and end this completely irresponsible fiscal delusion, or I shall do it for you." Either way, things will not end well. Will we see the Fed's Mjollnir or rocket ship inflation take will take down all forms of debt on its own first?
TNX in Cup & Handle - Breaking out - BullishThe TNX looks like it's been in a huge cup and handle pattern since early 2020. It also looks like the handle is breaking out and if the pattern plays out, we could see the TNX all the way up to 3%. That could put pressure on the precious metals, real estate, and the stock market. I think the Fed would have to intervene if we saw rates go that high.
TNX 10-yr yield: 2 patterns both indicating A PEAK AT 3.25%The rapid rise of the 10-yr yield puts a lot of pressure on tech stocks, TLT bonds & gold.
Recently TNX overshot the upper downchannel which may be a bulltrap.
These 2 patterns both point to a top at 3.25โฆthe inverse H&S & the measured move of the bullish flag.
For your guidance only on the possible market pivoting going forward so be ready to react accordingly.
10 year treasury yieldspotential double top around 3.23% on 10 year treasury rate, coincides with resistance of multi decade down trend (yellow). on a logarithmic price chart.. or do we break out of a multi decade trend and see rates go higher? even if we did break out, could the Fed respond with YCC to stop long end rates going up, which could break the financial system..? thoughts and comments welcome.
TNX10 yr rates are at an interesting spot. Blue trend line goes back ~40 years. Just above that (pink line) is the target for the inverted h&s. Could be a sick false breakout if the h&s target holds.
$TNX Hyperinflation here we come.. The TNX has created a solid Hekin Ashi Resistance level in January of 2014 at 3.034% that has been tested multiple times on the yearly chart. This level is our first short to mid term target on the TNX looking to breakout from a decades long downtrend. Should the TNX break out above this level subsequent areas of resistance are circled as targets in white. This being a Bullish box on the Indicator would suggest that we will likely take that top target resistance created in Jan 1983 at 10.12% Should the shit really hit the fan, we have supply at 13.99 % circled in red. Hold on to your Butts..
๐ญ๐ฌ-๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: $TNX Monthly. 40-yr Trendline! Most have eyes on this, but a reminder its the most important chart right now. 40+ year trend-line being tested! ๐คฏ
$TLT $ZN_F $ZB_F $TYX $DXY $ES_F $SPY $VIX $QQQ #Tech #Bonds #Rates #Trading ๐
$spy $tnx $rlt Will it hit the target? You are better off buying bonds right here vs selling, but may still be some more pain to the downside short-term. Sentiment at extreme pessimistic level.
US10yr yield near topping point; TLT may fall more to 120-114TNX may be seeing a top soon at the 0.786-0.854 Fib zone somewhere near 2.81-2.83%.
Also, if you measure the inverse head & shoulder move, TNX may peak at 3.25% which is a very significant pivot line.
And if you look at the downtrend channel, TNX topped out several times at the upper channel. This time it overshoot due to the aggressive selling of TLT bonds doing the work for the FED.
TLT, which is inverse to TNX, may also be nearing the bottom. It may still fall some more to the 120 to 114 support zone. (Very Good buy zone)
Market is not acting normal these days: XLE bank stocks falling despite rising rates. Banks may be due for a bounce so watch carefully this earnings week for GS, WFC, JPM.
Transports IYT is also diverging also seems reversing going up. It may be a more leading market indicator this time than IWM smallcaps.
Watch carefully the reaction in TLT bonds & gold in the coming weeks.
Not trading advice
TNX coming to the topThe moment we have been waiting for. the 10 year is cooling off the risk assets, real estate and everything else under the sun. Markets are set up for a rude awakening which will create a drop in rates. All time low in 2023. Refinancing everything that was originated in 2022 is going to keep the market pumping.
10 YEAR Bond Yield Just Broke Above Multi-Decade TrendlineHey Guys, in this video I give my opinion that the 10 Year Bond Yield has broken out above it's multi-decade downward trendline and it's set to go higher because inflation is growing significantly and is at historical extremes above the 10 year yield. I think it's because of the Fed that has absolutely over-flooded the system with liquidity, check out the chart below of central bank assets as a % of GDP. This has big long term implications for all investors and traders, it could possibly cause poor stock market returns for decades to come in addition to the already painful higher cost of living relative to wages. Imo, Fed official's have turned millennials pensions and investments into "boomer exit liquidity" for their own benefit. They borrowed from the future and we will pay the price for that for years to come.
Let me hear your comments below with what you think about all of this? Did the Fed go too far? Are rates at the start of a multi-decade bull market?
Jared
๐ญ๐ฌ-๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐น๐: $TNX Weekly. Nice Run, Key ResistanceHuge run after breakout in early February. Now hitting key resistance area. Will 2.6-2.7% hold?
$TLT $ZN_F $ZB_F $TYX $DXY $SPY $VIX $QQQ #Tech #Bonds #Rates #Trading ๐
Where Are Yields Heading ?This chart of the $TNX now reflects that yields are heading into a "correction." Perhaps its time to take a look at TLT as their is a potential money flow out of equities back into fixed income.
Yields at 7%?1987: Inflation was 3.7% and Yield 7%. The Trendline has been broken twice. Above 3.5% will have a Recession and with a 7% Yield, we'll get a 50%-60% S&P500 correction.
Dark time is coming.
Let's also consider that the actual overall debt is huge. Much much larger than in 1987 so the problems could be much worse. I guess they should invent another Plan-demic or some wars to justify the events that will occur.
Unchartered Territory-TNXAnyone who thinks they know for sure what's going to happen in this market should follow price action very, very closely. TNX just closed the month of March by very bullishly crossing the monthly cloud. Since the 1980's interest rates have been in a down trend. TNX could have crossed the monthly cloud bullishly on a couple of occasions but it never had the power to do what it did this month. What happens now?
Here are the times TNX could have had the strength to cross the monthly cloud bullishly but it got rejected:
Here is this months action:
Looking at it from a different angle...below is the monthly chart of ZN. When interest rates rise, ZN futures goes down. Does a 6% Interest Rate sound crazy? Don't break that neckline!
