10 yr back to 4.0Bounced off 1 year trendline support .
So far I've been spot on with the moves here.
My TA tells me in the next 2weeks expect a leg higher back to 4.0
TNX.P trade ideas
$TNX $SPX ride the wave of the 10 Year?$TNX nearing support of its recent uptrend, an indicator to watch as we get closer to FOMC and VIX seasonality
tnx possibilitynot confident of this path but have to note it. general tink ing see inflation will be low if it negative or we continue
Treasury Yields Show Signs of a TopTreasury yields have been a major driver of sentiment since early 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped above 1.75 percent at the beginning of the bear market last January. But now it may be showing signs of a top.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the highs of October, November and December. Notice how TNX began the New Year (and a new week) by sharply dropping from this resistance.
Second, the rejection occurred at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Interestingly, this is different than we saw in August, when the yield leaped above the SMA. It’s also noteworthy that the SMA has been falling since early December, another potential sign of the trend reversing lower.
Next, consider the longer-term levels. TNX peaked at 4.32 percent in 2008 and 4.014 percent the following year. Given the recent price action, that general zone seems to be holding as resistance.
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10Y Rate - Headed HigherToday you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1W linear scale chart for 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX).
In December 2021, I posted a chart showing that the 10Y rate was going to go much higher. I was exactly on point almost to the exact number.
Today I was reviewing the 10Y rate chart and saw the RSI formed a double bottom base with the 10Y rate ready to make another move higher. I also added in the Keltner Channel indicator which shows that when the 10Y rate is higher than the median line, there is a strong chance it touches the top of the Keltner Channel. I see the 10Y as well as other long term rates going much higher as shown in the chart.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
10 yr yield ... TNXAfter 3 gaps up from a falling wedge, I'm looking for a pullback here on the 10yr
TNX10 year yields bouncing where they need to for the uptrend to remain in tact imo. Still think rates have a ways to go higher based on the quarterly chart, which broke out of a ~40 year downtrend earlier this year.
$TNX outperforming 2yr last few days$TNX #yield pumping, above both avg's
2Yr not as much
Does this mean the street has finally caved in and believe that longer recession is a sure thing?
#economy
AW 10YR\INTEREST RATES ANALYSIS - Coiling Up for Higher Rates...In this video I explain my long-term view on 10 Year Bond Yields also known as Interest Rates.
If there is one view of mine that has stood the test of time it is my view of this chart.
My timing couldn't be better if what I talk about in this video comes to pass.
It appears that we have just completed what appears to be the first wave of the upcoming 5-Wave move for Wave E.
This pattern has been unfolding since at least 1100AD and it still hasn't completed yet.
It provides so many clues as to what is coming in the not-so-distant future.
There is no better time to learn how the waves operate in these psychology driven markets.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
$TNX break rising wedge pattern & craters$VIX hits 1st target & likely bounce & then fill gap down
$DXY almost hit 1st target but hit this one PERFECTLY & almost to the day!
Not sure if 3rd target can be hit
$TNX falling hard on possible #FED pivot soon
All fits narrative we pointed out early Oct
IF fed keeps pushing, which they likely will, next year, we can see this pumping hard again
Why is $TNX NOT popping with hike?This year alone we've seen almost 400 basis points!
#FED rates are finally @ $TNX level!
We called this some time ago, catching up
Why is #TNX not ripping?
Likely believe there's not that much more in hikes by the fed
That HUGE negative divergence is telling
#stocks #bonds #crypto
10 year treasury looks tiredLooks like the 10 year treasury will start to cool down and start forming an ABC pattern after just forming a 12345 pattern using Elliot Waves techniques.
10yr breaking uptrend 3 days with no Fed speak and 10yr is flirting with dropping back below 4.
The pullback to the uptrend was expected but dropping below it would be a correction to 3.5 which means equities rally isn't over
TNX 10 Year Treasury Yield10 year treasury yield broke the 37 year parallel channel.
Using measured movements from 1976-1986 I took measured movements to project where rates may go.
It already exceed #3
Enjoy
The TNX journey: no top in sightTNX is firmly above 4%, and the rise in rates will continue. For the first time in 40 years both the Stock and Treasuries are going down, which is detrimental to the long-term investment portfolios worldwide. The investments that seemed protected, diversified - split between Stocks, Bonds, Treasuries - all of a sudden start to move sharply lower. Social security, retirement savings - all begin to evaporate. The world, however, does not seem to pay attention: AAPL still trades at 0.6..0.7% dividends yield.
It will take much more of the move in Treasuries to force everyone to take notice. I think 7% for TNX is a very conservative target. 8-10% in the apogee of the panic look more realistic.
The rise in yields to the figures above will lead to the "impossible three" in the next few months:
1. SPX below 1500
2. EURUSD at or near 0.75
3. USDJPY at 100..110
Real-world side effects: the sudden bankruptcy of the "developed" world will imply their defeat in Ukraine. Nobody from US or EU will send any more weapons or money while there is financial apocalypse at home.
US 10 Year Treasury Yield: What's Next?Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1M Linear Chart.
1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s.
2) It is currently headed to the top trendline of the channel with a possibility to break in the coming months.
3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges.
4) This may fall in line with the US Dollar strengthening (in the idea section below).
5) If US 10 Year Treasury Yield goes lower, there is not much more room for it to get to 0.
What are your opinions on this?
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
10 yr looks toppy Is toppy a word?
10 yr is look overextended here.
RSI overbought on weekly and Monthly
Also look at the divergence on my rsi
Also outside its Bbands for 3weeks..
I'd be looking for a pullback starting by EOW or next week.
10 yr is now trading in a Rising wedge so if it does break support, I'd be looking for a retest of 3.2 area.
I know outside economic events could throw the 🖕 at my technicals, but until then I'd be on the watch out for a pullback in yields and a equity rally
TNX Coming out of the base accumulation to retest the next run ups. Waiting to see what happens w CPI on thursday
TNXOut of all of the charts out there, this is the one that scares me the most. I have 0% confidence that the Fed will be able to maneuver a "soft landing". The more likely outcome is that they over do it and break just about everything in their path. These are the same idiots that thought this inflation would be "transitory". My 4 year old daughter could have told them that inflation wasn't going anywhere. I still don't truly know if they're morons or if they want to break the economy. Bullish interest rates for the foreseeable future imo.
$TNX softness - Another indication for the expected rally Makes sense $TNX stopped falling as they stopped the bond buying program
It's been weaker so likely they started buying again
#inflation #interestrates
Will #fed reintroduce QE and/or also stop raising (short term at least) rates???
Reaching the limits of rationalThe market has reached the limits of what humans see as rational:
10Y Yields: nearing 4 percent, yes, still acceptable, still manageable.
EURUSD: 0.96..0.98 - with all things happening around the world, yes, understandable.
SPX: down ~1000 points from ATH, totally acceptable for the challenging environment we are in.
But it's all going to be fine. Things will come back to normal, and we just need to buy more SPX, and add to our long EURUSD position, because it cannot fall forever.
This is the current market sentiment. Such sentiment precedes the extended wave 5, which goes far beyond rational and will transition the world into the state of complete panic.
SPX below 1500, EURUSD at 0.75. 10Y yields above 7 percent in 3 months.
The world still hasn't realized that something is wrong with their beliefs. Once it happens, the sellers will flood the markets in FX, Stocks and Treasuries overnight. The problem is, the buyers will vanish at the same time.
Taking a Long-Term Look at Treasury YieldsU.S. Treasuries have gone through a period of historic turmoil as the Federal Reserve starts shrinking its balance sheet. Today’s weekly chart considers just how dramatic the moves have been using the 10-year note’s yield index (TNX).
The first thing that stands out is the accelerating rate of change since about March 2021. This chart shows ROC with a nine-week interval, which peaked above 80 percent almost five months ago. Moves like that are simply unprecedented in the six decades of TNX’s history.
Of course, there are problems with viewing percentage change for an index that is itself a percentage. (After all doubling from 0.6 percent to 1.2 percent isn’t a huge feat.) So we used TradeStation’s analytics to compare the changes in net points and found they’re still unusually large.
For example, TNX rose about 120 basis points in the last nine weeks. Aside from the spike in April and May of this year, that was the biggest increase since August 2003. Before that surge, you have to look to the 1980s, when yields were twice as high.
The second interesting pattern is highlighted by our Price Streak custom script, which shows TNX has risen for nine consecutive weeks. That is the longest unbroken upward move since 2004. (The only longer runs occurred in 1968 and 1972-1973.)
Finally, consider the simple price level. TNX hit 3.992 yesterday, just 2 basis points from its peaks in both 2009 and 2010. While yields may continue higher over the longer-term, will traders look for consolidation at this historic resistance level?
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
Important Information
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
