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CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note

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Treasury Yield at Lowest Since When?The 10-year Treasury yield is one of the most important non-stock indicators because it reflects expectations about the direct of interest rates. That, in turn, can impact growth stocks and the Nasdaq-100. Today’s chart shows the rapid evolution of the rate environment since the banking crisis emerged in the middle of last month. First consider the December low of 3.40%. TNX bounced there in February and tried to hold it in March. But yesterday it plowed through that level, ending the session at the low. (It was the lowest close since early September.) Second, you have the series of lower highs starting on March 14. Combined with the horizontal line at 3.40%, the result could be a descending triangle. Next, roll back the clock about two months. TNX ripped through a falling trendline after holding 3.40%. It tried to establish a new high above December’s peak but failed. That price action could now look like a failed breakout, with the more recent patterns pointing lower. This downward movement in yields corresponds to a falling U.S. Dollar and weakening economic data. (Last week’s jobless claims were higher than expected. March manufacturing data missed on Monday, February job openings missed yesterday and ADP’s March private-sector payrolls missed today.) These points may help confirm a new regime of lower rates and less-hawkish policy from the Federal Reserve. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TVC:TNX
by TradeStation
AW BOND YIELD\RATE RISE ANALYSIS - Something Big is Coming...This latest count for the 10 YR suggests that interest rates are close to a top and whatever comes next will be significant. This lines up with my Dow Jones analysis which suggests that we are looking for one more all-time-high before we see the top. I think the markets will continue to oscillate in a large range over the next several years which will be a result of these types of movements. I believe that there are certain times during these cutting and raising cycles that will dramatically increase asset prices and see inflation see-saw. Another factor here will be the amount of currency units that are pumped into the system during these times. It seems as though when the FED tightens, they still appear to be expanding their balance sheet effectively pumping the gas and brakes simultaneously. In my opinion, this could potentially lead to hyperinflation down the road which may kick off once this expanding 5-Wave move finally ends. According to the AriasWave methodology, the historical CPI chart also supports the hyperinflation theory, but it could still be a while before we see any signs. Some analysts suggest that we are actually seeing deflation, but I don't know whether or not that is true as there could be periods of both during these the next few cycles. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
$TNX & short term yields breaking support levelsWhile the #fed reserve has made it clear they're not stopping rate increases yet, #bonds yields put a top in days ago. $TNX actually did it some time ago! We noticed certain sectors, like insurance, began lowering premiums done time ago. Did they know something was start didn't? Small community banks are getting crushed and if rates crater it may alleviate the balance sheets of those remaining. Anyway, the fed tends to overdo everything they do. Many are calling recession or something much harsher. Time will tell but banks going busy is not a good sign.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$TNX is weakening, no longer holder better vs short term Yields$TNX has held better than short term #yields but could this be changing now? - The 2yr & 1Yr are holding. - Of course, it's early in the trading day so we'll see tomorrow morning how things go. - In reference to the post last week on #yield in 2008, we need to keep an eye on TOPS in these #bond yields. It took 1 year at that time before there was a lower high. IMO will happen MUCH FASTER. Perhaps 6 months tops, no pun intended. :) #stocks #cryptotrading #rates #interestrates
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$TNX Bouncing nicely as are shorter maturity YieldsWas kind of expected to get some bounce from #Bond #Yields. The last two days, especially yesterday, was RARE in yield price action. It happens but it's rare. The buys could have been investors trying to take advantage of higher rates being that they are "expecting" the Fed Reserve to lower rates. We mentioned that most yields, when we posted, were at or close to support levels. So the bounce we are getting today is not unexpected. Furthermore, the gap from two days ago attracted and it is filled today. $TNX was also oversold. Yields from here are tough to gauge but likely go a bit higher.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
The masterplanSo here's the final master plan for the next few months. It will materialize to the letter and there will be no laughs when 10Y hits 10% at the end of an extended wave 5. The question is - why do I believe that wave 5 will be extended? There is no numerically or analytically certain way to tell this with 100% confidence. I can bet my life on yields going higher, but going as high as 10% is just a speculation based on my subjective assessment of how much the market still believes in "low yields forever". If it happens (and I'm ~90% certain about that), the stocks will react viciously. Remember that AAPL still trades at 0.62% dividend yield today. The fresh MBA-graduated fund managers, contemplating 10Y at 10% will have nothing to do but sell the stocks in order to at least partially bring the stock yields closer to the new yield baselines. The market is designed in such way that it will keep moving the yields higher until everyone is forced to accept the idea of the secular high-yield world. Sometimes the adoption of the new market trend comes gradually during waves 1, 3 and 5. But quite often the old beliefs are so strong that the market participants only part with them during wave 5. In that case the magnitude of price action far exceeds even the most audacious targets. Considering how complacently low the yields in stocks are, I think this will be the case this time. The selling in the stocks department will be extremely violent. AAPL may be worth 20..30 at the end of the sell-off. Other stocks will follow for sure. As usual, no one sees this coming (as it should be), and no one alive has experienced the market action of such magnitude and speed.
TVC:TNXLong
by AndyM
11
Yields are CRATERING - WHy?The Debt Market is significantly larger than the #stockmarket so it's VERY IMPORTANT what happens there. It's way too early to see data but, JUST A HUNCH, this is most likely the #FED stepping in & buying bonds trying to calm the markets. This is not normal to see #yields cratering so much. The 1Yr is off almost 3.26% The 2Yr is off 5.01 The 10Yr is off 5.33% This is causing more of an inversion to the yield curve. On other news, banks faltering isn't helping the case for stability or easing the fears of #economy being in turmoil.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
AW 10Y Bond Yields - The Large Pullback Ahead Means Recession...In this video I talk about the bigger picture going back to 1150AD and how I have always anticipated this move up in rates. See down below all videos that are related to this idea. We are in a correction phase of Wave 2 in Bond Yields. This type of expansion means that they are preparing themselves for a recession even though they don't mention it. They know. The FED must always keep the public distracted with the inflation narrative. The truth is that they have to keep the party going therefore they will use manipulated data to justify their actions. This is all done through compartmentalization which is used by governments and the military industrial complex. This is also done to the public to make sure you are happy even though you are losing everything. Sound familiar? The truth is they have been slowly preparing you for the future. Don't think that it's coming because it's been here the whole time. #BoilingFrog. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
TVC:TNXLong
by AriasWave
Another Pusher Higher for Treasury Yields?Treasury yields have been falling since October as traders look for inflation to cool. But now there could be signs of a rebound. This chart of the 10-year Treasury note’s yield highlights the series of lower highs in November and December. TNX kept squeezing downward in January, but this month jumped back above the trendline. Is the period of consolidation ending? If so, will the longer-term uptrend resume? Second, notice the slightly lower lows in January and early February. The resulting trendline has a weaker downward slope than the higher line along the highs. That’s formed something of a descending wedge -- a potential reversal pattern pointing to the upside. Third, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made higher lows at the same time TNX made slightly lower lows. Some chart watchers may consider that a non-confirmation of the lows, or positive divergence. Again, such an interpretation would point to the upside. Finally, yields have remained above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in green. They’ve also returned above the 50-day SMA. Neither of those facts point to yields going lower. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TVC:TNX
by TradeStation