TNX.P trade ideas
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treasury buying slowstreasuries coiling up for another move. momentum on 10y crashing even with feb no-hike odds at 98%. hawkish minutes meeting next month could very well send yields ripping. good watchlist candidate.
Gold Intraday Trade ideaMajor resistance - $1188
Major support - $1152 (200- H MA)
The yellow metal has made a high of $1183 and declined sharply from that level. It is currently trading around $1174.
US 10- year bond yield shown a slight jump till 2.42% from low of 2.34% after US Non farm payrolls.The yield is trading slightly below 2.45% (200- HMA) and a break above confirms 2.52%. It is currently trading around 2.42%.
Gold major resistance is around $1188 (Dec 5th high) and any break above targets $1200 in the short term.
On the lower side, immediate support is around $1172 (60- H EMA) and any indicative break below targets $1161 (61.8% retracement of $1145 and $1188)/$1156 (200- HMA).
It is good to sell on rallies around $1175-77 with SL around $1185 for the TP of $1161/$1156.
Economic cycle, market cycle, interest rates, trend lines & SPXThis chart provides probable market behavior given current market behavior, interest rates, and other factors such as presidential elections.
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I am expecting a down turn during the next week which would last until late February and another leg up in SPX until the final move down in August 2017.
Trend line colors mark the same conditions on both cycles.
tnx tow way for a same goalwell the way to go to the lise seem to be different , orange and blue but we will hit the red line.
US 10Y Yield. The US 10Y yield has been in a downtrend for an extremely long time (further back that this data shows). We could be capped at between 2.5-3% from here on in and the yield suggests that future interest rates are going to remain low. Well, the expectations theory says that long-term rates embed a prediction of future short-term rates. So we could imply from this that we could see a rate rise in December. However, after, we could see risk off behaviour on bond buying which could send the yields heading back closer to 0.
Short US10Y Yield (long 10Y bond)I feel as though bond buying is going to commence again. The risk on behaviour is hugely unfounded. The only caveat is that Yellen has almost completely said there will be a hike in December. This would obviously be bullish yields. I dont necessarily think it is the right move, as this will deleverage equity indices, which I think are very fragile still as well. If you look at the downtrend that yields have been in, it would be foolish to expect that it would break here, considering the trend has lasted for 8 years. Now that I have said that I'll probably end up eating my words.
Market says "Fed Must Follow"!Market is showing the Fed the way...again...expect Ms. Yellen to concede tomorrow that December rate hike will be done...
Short 10 Year...for the next couple of years...
TNX SPX and the CPIThe divergence between stocks and bonds is the key. Stocks can't hold at present level if interest rates, as measured by the 10 years treasury, continue their path to higher grounds. On a short term basis my target is 2.49, which would completely erase the preceding 5th. A bad CPI number (out tomorrow before opening) could certainly do the trick.
More on the TNX long term view later.
Stay tuned and happy trading.
tnx seem to be in a descending triangle despite of the trump illusion, we shoud see the big reality comme back
gold and interest ratethe intereste rate is related ty gold value. It is a fact . So you can elect anyone, the intereste rate seem to go higher in short term. so the gold have tow strikes for now . Interest rate and the fear that will disipate after the election.We go down for now.
Inflation really here?TNX has been rising very rapidly. Now it's above 200-daily moving average. RSI is signaling overbought, but one must remember that it can stay overbought for some time.
Maybe investors are realizing something?
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Shorter term bearish on the TNX with a longer term bullish viewWe like the short side of the 10 year treasury note for a bearish move to the 1.59 level as a target. Price action could continue higher to 1.73 from current levels, but the 1.59 should be achieved before a longer term bullish move is sustained. So on the longer term scale, we are bullish for price action to make a move for the 2.11 level, which could be reached by year end 2016.
US Ten Year Notes ShortThe reason for the usd rally last week despite poor data was the rally in tens.
looking at the technicals I see channel resistance confluenced with a strong resistance level and double top.
pin bar rejection at this level suggests sellers entering
US 10-year yield at major crossroadsThe TNX should be watched very closely next week as the daily chart currently indicates a high risk of seeing another bond rally in the wake of the latest US employment figures (which weren't all that bad). If doubts over a possible Fed rate hike towards the end of the year strengthen in September, the 10-year yield could fall back to it's historical lows, reached earlier this summer. This trade setup currently suggests that so long as the TNX trades sub 1.65%, bond prices are likely to rebound in September. The other scenario would consist in prices breaking support, perhaps in the wake of hawkish comments by FOMC participants, leading to a new period of rising rates similar to that which we saw in 2013 and 2015.
Update: 10 Year T-Note Yield: Rates Fell From 1.64% To 1.56%This is an update to a chart I published yesterday (Sunday) for 10 Year T-Note Yields.
Because the Fed struck fear in to the credit markets last Friday, I maintained that rates were not going to spike. Why?
The charts I looked at had digested the Fed-Speak and didn't show much conviction.
This is a 30 minute chart for-TNX.
You can see that rates have fallen. Here is what I see on this chart:
1. Rates are coming back from a news induced event.
2. Alligator jaws now feeding in down-trend.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) (this indicates a trend or choppy action) is below the 38.2 shaded area, indicating a trending asset , which is trending DOWN.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is heading lower (multiple consecutive red bars and the action is BELOW the zero line).
5. Momentum (middle top indicator) is the 5/34 measure, and this is heading sideways to DOWN.
6. Prices are trading into the Ichimoku Cloud .
7. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud.
So, believe it or not, the sky is not falling. Not yet, any way. Good luck to you. Don.
TNX: 10 Year T-Note Yield Headed Higher? The Jury Is OutYes, the Fed has spoken. Halloween came early and the sky was falling.
I don't think the 10 Year T-Note Yield is going much higher.
The Federal Reserve doesn't control the front end on the curve. The market does.
I still remain bullish on bonds and-TLT.
The above chart is still in a down trend channel.
The CHOP is high (indicator under the chart), but is back in the shaded area below 61.8.
Look, Friday was a good cop bad cop Fed speak mumbo jumbo gumbo. The markets don't have clear direction.
So, I will think rates are going higher ONLY IF yields break the down trend channel to the upside.
If the Fed does raise rates - this will most likely have very negative effects on all markets, especially foreign.
I don't think they will.
So don't panic. Follow your charts. They will know when. Right now I think rates head lower.
Good luck to you. Don.
