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CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note

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2020 Market Crash and Recession - #TNX #US03MY Yield InversionFor the past couple weeks, essentially every media channels were screaming out about TVC:US03MY - TVC:TNX yield inversion. While more scrutiny is desired, we are essentially sitting at the crossroad with heavy down-pressure in our shoulder. Just took a step back and looked at the big forest winding all the back to the 1980s. Let's take a look and see what's happened in the past and where we are headed in terms of the yields (long-term vs short-term yields). So what's the deal? How does this impact the investors and banks? In a normal occasion, long-term investments require higher yields as it requires you to take risk for longer period of time. When yield inversion occurs it wipes out the risk premium for the long-term investments. For you as an investor, you have no reason to take extra risk and opt-in for short term investments. For banks that borrow short-term and lend long-term, their profit margins become slim, so they cut short-term bonds, pushing up yields even further. Central banks cut M2 supply, recession begins. M2 supply as you many of you know already is a leading indicator of the markets, especially equity markets. When there is no GDP growth, there is no EQ growth, which will negatively impact the market overall. Including, but not limited to TVC:RUT , SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY , DJ:DJI . This will also spell cascade effects in markets rest of the world. History doesn't have to repeat itself but these key indicators are not negligible either.
TVC:TNXShort
by JDS_6ix
Long Term Interest Rate Yield Plunging !Much is being made about the Inverted Yield Curve right now where the 90 Day T Bill is yielding 2.43%, but the 10 Year Note only obtains you a rate of 2.37 %, for locking up your money for 10 years. Ouch. Implications are growing that the significance of this inversion will soon show up in a much more broader economic recession later this year in the United States., than expected. Bond traders live or die on fractions of a % moves in interest rates. And bond trader's are some of the smartest in the business. 10 yr long term interest rates bottomed at 1.33% in 2016, at the time of Brexit referendum and then topped at 3.25 % in 2018, as worldwide growth, suddenly, and with very little warning began showing a marked slowdown. Line Break Daily Chart shown here for TNX confirms a massive rollover top in yield, Look at how ugly that chart looks if you are trying to capture yield. Consider these possibilities... 1.Is the 50 % pullback in long term rates now sufficient to reach an equilibrium, between top end growth, and bottom line recession ? 2. Does this dramatic, and unexpected pullback in long term interest rates, have a much more significant meaning that we don't fully understand yet, to the health of the US economy ? 3 How will the stock market react, six-nine months out from now , to the unmistakable signals of a slowing economy that the bond market is foreshadowing now ? My own belief tells me that the equity crowd, stock market traders and investors, pundits galore, will simply choose to ignore these striking bond market divergences, ,..until it's too late. ""Don't Worry. Be Happy" :) TNX Last 2.37 % THE_UNWIND 3/28/19 Mountains/New York
TVC:TNX
by The_Unwind
2
Yield explosionThe yield curve is still in a bear market. Downward trending resistance at 3.1% Once that is broken, it could easily go up to 7% which will act as a magnet due to it being a historical support line (1973-1992) and resistance (1992-2000). This would be disastrous for the US government as interest on debt would rapidly rise. More fundamental reasons of why the yield curve would go up is off course the US debt which is absurdly high. There is no reason for lenders to keep lending at these low yields. Russia stopped doing it and sold all US treasuries, China stopped doing it and now that the babyboomers are retiring they are stopping as a buyer as well. Soon only the fed will be a buyer of these bonds. Long term up is the only way to go for yields and the road is open until 7%. This would cause a panic since the US will have it very difficult to service the debt without creating more bonds, enlarging the supply. Very good news for gold (65% of the monetary reserve of the US) which could be doing extremely well just as it did in the 1970's
TVC:TNX
by fatjohn
10 year yield is too damn high! It will be slammed to 1% or near it. or even better just make it 0%. Sounds crazy??... in late 90's or year 2000 if you ever asked people "do you think the 10 year bond will ever yield like 1.5%?" they would of looked at you like a lunatic. Now what is lunatic is the federal reserve went full dove retard with the 10 year at 2.75% and we are not even in a public known main stream recession or state of economic distress. When we eventually will be in one.. 2.75% to 1%-1.5% will be easy since we already were there.
TVC:TNX
by fuckwallstreert
10 Year Treasury Note Yield to 4%+ in 2020Hi all, This is publish mainly to link to an analysis on the S&P 500 (published 2nd September and updated today), using the Shiller PE Ratio, that indicates over-valuation of the equities market, as well as pointing towards a possible correction. Increasing volatility from U.S. equities that are less able to provide investors competitive dividends, leading investors to be increasingly reliant on price increases to provide returns. Increased volatility would normally lead investors to seek safer investment. At the same time interest rates are on the rise, which will in turn make these safe investments more attractive. Anyway, I am not in the market in any way. But am an interested observer. Good luck everyone and protect those funds. This is published for my own education.
TVC:TNXLong
by flyinkiwi10
SPX500 July 24th 1987SPX500 price actions are similar to those in 1978 (Today is 07/24/1978) It is interesting to see how 10YR yields moved in 1987 and today. The late July 1987, it was around 8.60%. By mid Oct, it shot up to above 10% . SPX500 hit the top on the 26th of Aug 1978 and 10YR yield was about 9%. My point is that current move of yields are also similar to those in 1978. It is possible that yields can move towards mid 3% and indices can make one more new high before yields shoots up above 4% and indices tank.
TVC:TNXLong
by Zoukers
TNX ( DXY) OILGOOD LUCK TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TUMBLES WITH OIL ... It should come as no surprise to see bond yields tumbling this week along with crude oil. Both markets have been trending higher together over the past year (with a 60-day Correlation Coefficient of .77). And both have similar chart patterns. The daily bars in Chart 3 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) falling 13 basis points this past week. . The TNX is now testing its first line of support near 2.91% and its 50-day average (blue line). If that doesn't hold, a further drop toward its early April bottom (2.71%) could be in store.
TVC:TNX
by walled7863