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CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note

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TNX.P trade ideas

TNX - 10 Year Note Yield / High to Highs FIB Wave ExtensionsThe 10Yr Yield is performing as indicated. The Reversal is trading the Trend Line and FIB Extensions to near perfection. Beyond the 1Hr, which is a better TF to illustrate the Price action - The Daily continues to remain in Strength within the trend. The Trade Plan has a break of the 1.7650 Highs as the Catalyst for the test of the Equity Complex 200SMAs. Given the Complexity of this Counter-Trend, Equites could continue to rise as Yields Rise for the Short Term. _________________________________________________________________________ The current Environment is dis-similar to 2016 when Yields and Equities were rising. Traders cite this as a non-conditional similarity and are using it to Echo. It is entirely dis-similar and not a confirmation by any metric. The Markets in 2016 were fueled by a Tax Cut, a Give-away for the very Wealthy and Corporations. Since March of 2020, Price action has been fueled entirely by the "V" Shaped Recovery narrative - Supported by $10s of Trillions in DEBT - Daylight and Shadow. The Meme's for Buying are far and wide - Fundamentally, they are almost always, without exception - Incorrect - Fundamentals do matter, Debt matters, Solvency matters... This abject degeneracy will meet its maker in 2022 as 5/5 concludes. Never in the History of the US Equity Complex has Factual Reality been this distorted. It will end with the Equities Markets down 50% - 90% IMHO. _________________________________________________________________________ During Powell's Friday discussion, his admission "Inflation is not Transitory, but here to stay longer than the Federal Reserve had Initially indicated..." Any Human purchasing Food & Energy was far ahead of this malaise from Chair Powell. Inflation Fears will need to be calmed for there not to be a Panic event, we indicated it would be Supply Shortages devolving into a 30%+ Price increase. Historically - this is the trigger of prior Inflations throughout History. _________________________________________________________________________ The Hourly indicated it is time to pay attention to a return to Fill at least one of the GAPs below and backtest the lower trendline, the overthrow appears to be short-term exhaustion. This would provide the NQ with room for a retest of the recent highs @ 15483, well short of our Price Objectives Between 15513/17.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
TNX - A break of 1.645 during GlobexThis break, although outside of RTH, is indeed important. It signals a retracement potential, but more importantly it opens the Higher Price Objective @ 1.71 - 1.76. The Equity Complex is pretending the "what me worry trade" once again. We are concerned, as it represents a very large issue for the Equity Complex should the ROCs continue to build. All eyes should be on the Yield Curve's MidPoint. It can imply a rather large selloff. Today thru Tomorrow has all the hallmarks of problems developing.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
5
A market event in Treasuries: wave 3 of E is loomingIt's hard to believe, but 3-4 weeks from now the 10Y yield will break above 3% (could hit 4..5% in a couple of months). This should cause all stock markets to lose 2/3 of their market cap, and should bring EURUSD way below parity (0.88 is the target). For the last few months the cycle always ended around the 20th of the month. Just compare DB, TLT / TNX - if you want to appreciate the subtleness of action of the invisible hand of the market.
TVC:TNXLong
by AndyM
TXN - 10 Year Note YieldWe Indicated the 10 Year Note Yield would initially retest the Highs several months back. We can see the APEX resides at the Prior Highs. The effort will be a multi-week affair, although as ROCs continue to build we are beginning to see Wider spread within the FIB Wave, indicating caution at a Resistance of 1.645%. The DX is benefitting from this as GOLD begins to SELL once again. It's time to pay attention very closely to the Bond Complex - it remains at Risk for now and the unexpected is shaking the confidence of a great number of Retail Traders who piled back into TLT on the aspirations of yet another Large Bull run to 172. Probability, 007s - is not on your side. The coming Reaction will provide some very real indications over the coming weeks. We can see the effects upon the NQ this morning. As 8 AM ET approaches, let's see how the Bond Complex begins its Position for the Week ahead. New2021 Lows for ZN as Financials appear to have made a Double Top. Trade safe out there, speculators. The past is not Prologue.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
3
TNX - 10Yr Yield /'Come on IN Equity Dip Buyers"The waters warm - just fine and we assure you there are no predatory creatures lurking about. Please ignore the Trend. Our assumptions include: The Herd is always Correct. CNCB and Lacy Hunt are "Pitch Perfect". Rates are heading lower, towards ZERO. TLT's hiccup this morning is nothing, simply a small bump on the road until 172. Debt doesn't matter, It's in the "Future" - we never subscribe to the idea of "Back to the Future" as our overlords are merely us from the Future... We are cocksure confident - "This is It~!" No more down, only up, the SELL is Over. No one would dare SELL Bonds here with Negative Real Returns. No one would demand higher rates, ever... regardless of the insurmountable DEBT Load. The FED won't' permit the Bond Vigilantes to Price in Inflation again as it is - wait for it... "TRANSitory. Yeah, naw, wrong again desperados. Looking rather forward to the NEXT SELL in TLT. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
4
ARIASWAVE LONG TERM VIEW -BITCOIN -DOW JONES -GOLD -10YR YIELDSThis video was originally intended to be a members only video but I have decided to share it with all my followers. In this video I share my thoughts about the long term view of these markets. It has been a long process in terms of thinking about how certain markets will impact each other in the long run. Every time I share my ideas it allows me to reflect on each one after the fact at a deeper level in order to identify possible faults in the analysis. This leads to a lot of background process thinking and is entirely based on the AriasWave methodology. This is why they are called ideas and they should never be taken as financial advice. My goal is to understand where we are in the long term patterns in order to produce better long or short trade ideas consistently depending on the pattern for that market. These ideas are also mostly understood by current members that have already begun learning and using the AriasWave methodology. The AriasWave methodology teaches you exactly whether or not a correction is complete because it describes exactly what is involved in the corrective process. In essence everything is a correction, it just depends on the magnitude and the observable degree of trend using available chart data. I welcome productive comments and hope to bring you some actionable ideas that help you with your own analysis in the years to come. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
Three Time Domains and their ImplicationsAs a foundation to my theory - this chart shows crypto to be the new Gold regardless of predictions by talking heads. Fundamentally, most disasters are man made, usually when we see ourselves as God. That is a whole other topic. COVID itself being man made is not as important as the power grab by ideologists (the bane of mankind) and the restriction of freedoms and trade. Volatility will remain high based on government manipulation to the point of collapse. My theory is this - that unrestrained supply and demand of crypto as an asset gives credibility to the use of Fibonacci retracements in crypto trading when it comes to order timing. The charts that follow show how Fib retracements based on unique chart characteristics can give insight for price action and risk analysis. My assumptions are; * Volatility regime consistent *Algorithm trading still fear/greed based, not driven totally by AI, yet *Market manipulation not feasible in crypto by design For everything there is a season, hope this helps your situational awareness regarding price action and risk analysis Grace and Peace
TVC:TNXLong
by Roger_Ball
TNX - 10Yr Yield largest SELL Side Offer since Mid-FebruaryPricing in "Inflation" has been a series of rapid events for Price. Yields began the highest velocity spike in History during the January to April adjustment. Bond Sellers have begun to increase their Sell. Retail is now 83% Short against the NQ ES YM... ahead of the most important Week we have had in Months, Since February. TNX has run-up to its -.236, a Catalyst Level. Duress in Bonds will further increase VX in Equities, both directions as there are only a limited number of Capital Pools. Money will flow where the returns can develop: CASH METALS COMMODITIES BONDS STOCKS REAL ESTATE Crypto (Unregulated Illusory Capital) Choose wisely, this cuts both ways. It is remarkable how few Bond Holders did not envision this possibility. The engrained mindset becomes one of defiance at any cost to preserve the Cult's Dogma. The Bond Market within the United States is ever so slowly being destroyed, its destruction is accelerating for reasons we have outlined repeatedly. Trade Safe out there, disruptions are simply beginning. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
12
10 Year Note YieldPrice is moving in a well-defined channel on the Shorter duration. The DX remains stubbornly over 94, a level that appears to be acting as Support for now. A pause that refreshes, one that TLT is attempting to make sense of in its way to 139. TLT tracks a market-weighted index of debt issued by the US Treasury with remaining maturities of 20 years or more out to 30 years. What remains a clear divergence is the weighting to the Mid-Point of the UST Curve. TLT is sickly as ZB underperforms ZN to the downside, it holds up better in a SELL due to duration. This divergence has been growing for some time and provided a clear indication all is not well in the Land of Wood Paneling. A veneer so thin, you can see through it... if you are paying attention. Fortunately, most do not, the tendency towards swilling the "conventional wisdom" satisfies their cleft palates. Repeated Pies in the face, a welcome event as Purchasing Power Parity continues to decline. The Market is raising rates out the Curve in defiance of YCC. The thinking is... you're borrowing insane amounts of Debt and we are collecting Chicken Scratch... you'll need to pay us more. You may control the Short end of the Curve, but out here... all you can do is offload your accumulated Debt on your balance sheet to feed us - xoxo 007 Reverse Repurchases increased 60% in 30 Days to $1.621 Trillion. 60% in 30 days. Yeah, naw, that is not going to work much longer - the revolt has simply just begun.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
8