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CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note

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TNX BreakoutTNX failed on the first breakout attempt but quickly reclaimed and is now looking poised for another leg up. Many are calling for a move back up to 5% and I personally think that is likely to happen as well. We may get a reaction tomorrow morning after PPI and jobs data and I expect it to be up for now. I refuse to believe stocks will be able to go up in unison for yields much longer. We are nearing beginning of the end now, it is inevitable. Question is when and how bad. We'll find out.
TVC:TNXLong
by AdvancedPlays
10yr TreasuryGoing into NFP, before a POTUS election and FOMC guidance next week, the 10yr has been quite a moving train these last few weeks. There are too many gaps to be filled to call any lower pricing target. With the November contract taking over volume yesterday we may see some calming down while the fundamentals reveal themselves these next few business days. I'm sure most new home buyers or potential buyers would appreciate some retracement on this run since it will reduce the 30yr mortgage rate. For some USDA purchasers the 5yr may also hold some relevancy. Also, as a side note the 10yr has either dipped (.2% to .5%) or went sideways when reading the last 5yrs of price action (Oct31st-Nov25th zone).
TVC:TNXShort
by j_nathan
Yields Revisit a Key LevelThe recent rise in Treasury yields has caused some worry among stock investors. However there could be reason to think the move is ending. Today’s chart of the 10-year Treasury note yield uses two-week candles to provide a longer-term view. It highlights the 4.324 percent level, which was a peak back in June 2008 that became important again in October 2022. TNX paused at the same spot in August 2023 before surging toward 5 percent. There was further churning at 4.324 percent between February and June. Also notice how yields accelerated lower in July after breaking the level. All those points may confirm its importance -- and make traders more attentive to it being tested this week. Will a reversal here confirm lower yields are coming? Next, March 2024 saw a lower high than October 2023. If yields decline from here that would represent another lower high. Finally, you have the March 2023 low of 3.25 percent. At that time, the Federal Reserve was still raising interest rates. Now, with an easing cycle underway, some investors may see a possibility of yields filling at least some of that space. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
TVC:TNX
by TradeStation
3
20% Interest Rates Could Crash The Market 98%It’s been a while since I last posted, but I’ve got a good reason to start again. If you take a close look at the charts in this video, you'll notice the potential for a significant market decline across the board. By analyzing the Dow Jones and interest rates together, it becomes evident that we are nearing this point. I'm not influenced by news or personal biases—I just prefer not to invest when the market is in this state. Whether it’s stocks, precious metals, or crypto, I believe it’s wise to be cautious when these signals appear. The long-term interest rate chart gives me strong reasons to believe we could see a historic drop in asset prices. Basic concepts like mean reversion and resistance turning into support are some of the key factors that back my AriasWave analysis. Stay tuned for more updates now that I’m back to sharing new ideas.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
2
Apparent Downtrend in 10-Year Treasury YieldsTreasury yields have been sliding since April. Now, after a two-month pause, some traders may see further downside. The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since mid-July. TNX could be stalling at the same resistance, potentially confirming the downtrend. Second is the December low around 3.785. Yields tried to hold that level in August but remained mostly below it in September. Is the level breaking? Third, stochastics have reached an overbought condition. (Notice the white arrows on the lower study.) Next, TNX is still about 50 basis points above last year’s low. That may cause some chart watchers to see space for a move lower. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
TVC:TNX
by TradeStation
TNX goes up from this levelMODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading system is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at bottom channel Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level TTM Squeeze just turned off Impulse MACD is crossing over to the upside Price very near Fibonacci level In at $3.679 Target $3.9, top of channel will add to position at $3.6, $3.5
TVC:TNXLong
by chancethepug
Head & Shoulders pattern: 10 year yield could drop to 2.87%The series of tops shaped notorious Head & Shoulders pattern on 10-Year Treasury yield (TNX). The tallest peak is the Head and Shoulders are on both sides. The Neckline is the support that is built through valleys of the Head. The price has breached the Neckline this summer triggering the pattern bullish scenario. The target is calculated by subtracting the height of the Head (from top to Neckline) from breakdown point on the Neckline. It is located around 2.87%. Almost 1% down from the current level
TVC:TNXEducation
by aibek
Treasury Yields: The Downtrend SteepensThe 10-year Treasury yield has been a key chart for risk appetite since interest rates started rising in late 2021. Now it might be confirming a move in the opposite direction. The first pattern on today’s chart of TNX (using 2-day candles) is the series of lower highs since October. Notice the steepening downward slopes of the falling trendlines. Does this reflect a growing belief that interest rates are headed lower? Second, the yield broke June’s low 4.188. It’s also under the key 4.32 level dating back to June 2008. That may suggest the 2-3 year uptrend is fading. Traders may next eye the December low around 3.80 as a key level to watch. The move comes after the Federal Reserve suggested a rate cut is more likely next month. News and data could also support the change. For example, initial jobless claims were above forecasts and continuing claims reached their highest total in almost three years. Unit labor costs were below estimates and productivity surprised to the upside. Data from the Institute for Supply Management also indicated a potentially sharp slowdown in manufacturing last month. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
TVC:TNX
by TradeStation
US 10-Year Yields: The Domino Effect on Global MarketsHey traders! 🌟 Let's dive into the fascinating world of the US 10-year Treasury yields and their ripple effects across the financial markets. Buckle up! 🚀 The Bond-Yield Symphony 🎻 US 10-year yields are like the heartbeat of the financial markets. 💓 When they move, everything else follows. Here's a quick rundown on how these mighty yields impact commodities, stocks, and the United States dollar: Commodities 🛢️💰: Higher yields often lead to a stronger dollar, making commodities priced in USD more expensive for foreign buyers. This usually puts downward pressure on commodity prices. Stocks 📈💼: Rising yields can spell trouble for stocks, especially high-growth tech stocks. Why? Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs and potentially lower profits. Investors might shift from equities to bonds, seeking safer returns. United States Dollar 💵📊: When US yields climb, the dollar tends to strengthen. Investors flock to the higher returns offered by US assets, boosting demand for the greenback. What Rising Yields Mean 📈🔥 We’ve got some interesting levels on our radar. Demand is spotted between 4.032% and 4.233%, while supply looms large at 5.115% to 5.306%. With expectations pointing towards more rising yields, let's break down what this could mean: Commodities 🛢️💔: Brace for potential downside. As yields rise, the stronger dollar could weigh heavily on commodities like gold, oil, and silver. Watch for key support levels to gauge buying opportunities. Stocks 📉🚨: High-flying growth stocks might feel the pinch as investors rotate into safer, yield-bearing assets. Look out for increased volatility in the stock markets, especially in tech-heavy indices like the NASDAQ. United States Dollar 💵🚀: The USD could see a significant boost, attracting global capital. A strong dollar might also impact US exports, making them more expensive on the international market. The Fun Part: Chart Watching! 📊🔍 We’re keeping a close eye on those critical levels. If yields push through the 5.115% to 5.306% supply zone, we could be in for a wild ride. 📉 Conversely, if yields find support within the 4.032% to 4.233% demand zone and we see a bullish reversal on the daily chart, a rally up to the supply zone could be on the cards. 📈 In essence, buying at demand and selling at supply remains a classic strategy. Should bond yields enter the demand zone and reverse back bullishly, we might witness a significant run up to the supply levels. 🚀 Keep those charts handy, and let’s ride these waves together! 🌊📈 Happy trading, and may the pips be ever in your favor! 🤑✨ #Trading #Finance #Investing #US10YearYields #Commodities #Stocks #USD #MarketTrends #TechnicalAnalysis #Bonds #Yields #InvestSmart
TVC:TNXLong
by Mike_SnD
Bull Trap! The Market Crash is Well Underway I believe this past week was one giant bull trap. One of the primary reasons for this is the strength of TNX and fed fund futures adjusting after more strong jobs data to end the week. DXY went back to beast mode as well. Treasury yields are the single greatest threat to the market in my opinion and I believe the market is going to come to the realization that we are not getting any cuts this year. I think this.is written all over the market, a major top is being put in as we speak. I think the reaction from silver and BTC today says a lot. My only question is, what is wrong with VX? How can it be so low if we're actually about to crash. I have never seen such bearish charts without a strong VX. Very tricky IMO. Will follow up with videos and more on the short thesis.
TVC:TNXShort
by AdvancedPlays
The TradingView Show: Charting Markets with TradeStationHello to all global traders! We're live with David Russell, TradeStation's Global Head of Markets giving us an inside look at the most important moves in markets. He’s the expert behind the research and analysis from TradeStation’s official TradingView account. Follow them here: www.tradingview.com In this show, we examine the most important charts, interesting trades, and offer valuable education for all traders. What’s on David’s radar? The Fed, inflation, the upcoming Apple iPhone, the big money shifts moving from energy to tech, and other areas to watch including homebuilders and more. We look forward to connecting with traders worldwide. Share your questions in the comments, contribute your insights, and don’t forget to subscribe for more shows on TradingView with our partners, influencers, sponsors, and global community. Thanks for watching! This show is for educational and entertainment purposes only, not financial advice. Markets require hard work and dedication, so stay informed and keep learning. Look first, then leap! - TradingView Important disclaimers for ETFs: www.tradestation.com Important disclaimers for options: www.theocc.com All other important disclaimers: www.tradestation.com
TVC:TNX
by TradingView
5
Triangle on the 10-Year Before Big EventsBond yields are converging before some big events this month. Today’s idea studies the yield on the 10 Year Treasury note. It is arguably the most important chart in financial markets given the current focus on interest rates. Upside in TNX has punished sentiment on various occasions, so potential downside signals could be especially noteworthy for risk appetite. First we have a pair a converging lines. This triangle is a potential reversal pattern after a few years of steady increases. Second is the 4.324 percent level. It was a high in June 2008 as the subprime crisis took hold. TNX peaked there in February and March before bouncing there in mid-May. Remaining above that level could potentially suggest yields haven’t peaked. Will a push below trigger more declines? Next is 4.70 percent. That was the location of a major gap on November 2 as investors looked for inflation to ease. Yields peaked there in late April. Remaining below it may confirm that markets believe inflation is headed lower. Finally, major catalysts that could influence TNX are marked. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates on Thursday. U.S. non-farm payrolls are on Friday. Then the big events are next Wednesday, June 12: The consumer price index (CPI) inflation report in the morning, followed by the Federal Reserve meeting and dot plot in the afternoon. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
TVC:TNX
by TradeStation