I just entered too late,but it is a valid entry Bull triangule broke up, I just enter in a buy position, to swing trade
SMCI trade ideas
SMCI: Call Buying Into Wave 2 of Larger 3SMCI has sold off aggressively in the last few weeks and I see that Wave 1 of larger 3 is complete. I'm expecting a hard wave 2 bounce next week to 627, then reject before filling the gap at 667. At that point I will be buying PUTS.
PT1 627 PT2 667
SMCI.....Price target achieved!Hello Traders,
on February 24th I wrote this analyzes for SMCI→
www.tradingview.com
The price target I called out, more than 5 months ago, was achieved and undercut the last days!
Yesterday's closing price was @ $ 492.70, the pre-market today suggest price levels @ $480.-!
If the move from $1229.- indeed has been a waves w-x-y, the price target for a wave c of y of (4) is much steeper than today's levels.
Contrary to the w-x-y count, there could be a chance for waves a-b-c. In this case, the final price target for a wave c of (4) is short @ hand!?
Keep in mind. A wave w-x-y is always an "a-b- (1-2-3-4-5) →c"!
We will follow the stock and track it in the coming days ahead! Probably a great chance is waiting for the bulls.
Have a great week.....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as needed.
Trading based on this analysis is at your own risk.
Penny Stocks and the “Pump and Dump” Pattern Penny Stocks and the “Pump and Dump” Pattern
📚 Penny stocks are shares that trade at a very low price, generally below $5 per share.
📖 These stocks belong to companies with a small market capitalization, meaning the total value of all their shares in the market is relatively small.
📊 The “Pump and Dump” is a common pattern in the penny stock market where stock prices rise rapidly and then fall. This pattern develops in 7 steps:
1-Pre-Pump or Promotion: The stock begins to be heavily promoted.
2-Ramp: The stock price starts to rise.
3-Supernova: The price reaches its peak.
4-Cliff Dive: After the peak, promoters and early investors begin to sell their shares.
5-Dip: The stock falls significantly.
6-The Dead Pump Bounce: After the initial drop, there may be a small bounce in the price.
7-The Long Kiss Goodnight: Finally, the stock stabilizes at a low level.
Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) Plummet 20% on Weak Earnings ReportSuper Micro Computer (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ), once a darling of the AI investment world, is experiencing a dramatic downturn. The company's stock plummeted after a disappointing earnings report revealed a significant margin squeeze, casting a shadow over its previously rosy outlook.
The AI gold rush had propelled Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) to new heights, with its shares more than doubling in 2024. Investors were betting big on the company's ability to capitalize on the soaring demand for AI servers. However, the recent decline has raised serious questions about the company's long-term prospects.
A Perfect Storm
SMCI's troubles stem from a confluence of factors. Firstly, the rapid shift to more expensive AI chips has eroded profit margins. The company's attempt to lower prices to compete with rivals like Dell and HP has exacerbated the issue. Secondly, supply chain challenges and component shortages have added to the cost pressures.
While the company maintains an optimistic long-term outlook, the immediate future appears bleak. Analysts warn that the stock's lofty valuation, relative to peers like Dell, makes it particularly vulnerable to market volatility.
Technical Analysis: A Bearish Outlook
SMCI's stock price has broken down from a descending triangle pattern, a bearish technical indicator. The stock is now trading below its crucial 200-day moving average, signaling a potential long-term trend reversal.
Investors will be closely watching key support levels at:
$496: Potential buying interest could emerge around this level, which would fill a gap from January’s impulsive move higher.
$357: Another support level where the stock may find a horizontal line connecting past swing highs.
$260: A significant correction could lead to support around this trendline, linking June 2023 highs with levels from August to December 2023.
What's Next for Super Micro?
The AI market remains undeniably promising, and SMCI's position as a key player in the industry cannot be ignored. However, the company must address its margin issues and navigate the challenges of the evolving AI landscape to regain investor confidence.
As the dust settles from the earnings report, investors will be scrutinizing SMCI's actions to mitigate the margin squeeze and its ability to maintain its competitive edge. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but the company's long-term success hinges on its ability to adapt and overcome these hurdles.
Will Super Micro be able to rebound from this setback, or is this just the beginning of a more prolonged decline?
SMCI in at $516, $658 targetPrice at bottom channel
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
TTM Squeeze momentum is down, stretched
Currently in a corrective wave I have smci in a corrective wave c in a wave 3 of 5 wave impulse to the downside price targets
450-110 just depends on how this ai bubble pops.
not financial advise.
Earnings Watch: August 6th Airbnb (ABNB 🏠)
The travel accommodation giant is expected to report an EPS of 0.91 and revenue of 2.73B. With a solid beat rate of 85%, can Airbnb surpass expectations? Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.98 and revenue of 2.48B.
Fortinet (FTNT 🔒)
Fortinet is projected to deliver an EPS of 0.41 and revenue of 1.40B. Holding a beat rate of 71%, investors are keen to see if they can maintain their streak. Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.38 and revenue of 1.29B.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI 💻)
The company is set to announce an EPS of 8.10 and revenue of 5.31B. With a beat rate of 72%, will SMCI impress the market? Last year, they delivered an EPS of 3.51 and revenue of 2.18B.
Coupang (CPNG 📦)
Expected to post an EPS of -0.01 and revenue of 7.37B, Coupang has a mixed outlook. Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.08 and revenue of 5.53B.
Sunrun (RUN ☀️)
The solar company is anticipated to report an EPS of -0.33 and revenue of 515.16M. With a beat rate of 50%, will Sunrun manage to impress the market? Last year, they delivered an EPS of 0.25 and revenue of 590.19M.
Redfin (RDFN 🏠)
Redfin is expected to deliver an EPS of -0.26 and revenue of 291.58M. Last year, they reported an EPS of -0.25 and revenue of 275.55M.
Shopify (SHOP 🛒)
The e-commerce platform is expected to report an EPS of 0.20 and revenue of 2.01B. With a beat rate of 58%, can Shopify exceed expectations? Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.14 and revenue of 1.69B.
Disney (DIS 🎥)
The entertainment giant is set to announce an EPS of 1.20 and revenue of 23.11B. Holding a beat rate of 77%, will Disney continue to enchant the market? Last year, they reported an EPS of 1.03 and revenue of 22.33B.
Lyft (LYFT 🚗)
Expected to post an EPS of 0.19 and revenue of 1.38B, Lyft has a beat rate of 80%. Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.16 and revenue of 1.02B.
CVS Health (CVS 💊)
CVS is projected to deliver an EPS of 1.73 and revenue of 91.51B. With a beat rate of 88%, investors are keen to see if they can maintain their streak. Last year, they reported an EPS of 2.20 and revenue of 85.27B.
Monster Beverage (MNST 🥤)
The beverage company is expected to report an EPS of 0.45 and revenue of 2.01B. With a beat rate of 42%, will Monster impress the market? Last year, they delivered an EPS of 0.39 and revenue of 1.87B.
Lumen Technologies (LUMN 📡)
The telecom company is anticipated to report an EPS of -0.06 and revenue of 3.24B. Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.10 and revenue of 3.66B.
🔍 As these giants reveal their financial health, it's not just about the numbers but also the story they tell about the consumer market and economic trends. Keep your portfolios ready for any surprises!
#EarningsSeason #StockMarket #InvestmentInsights
8/6/24 - $smci - Punting long print @ $6008/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SMCI
Punting long print @ $600
- liquidity conditions generally look favorable for a day (maybe more?) but enough to punt on this beaten up sector on a name growing high 30's CAGR+ and trading 25x PE next year
- think the "surprise" that there's a lot more demand for full stack data center will drive more upside toward the $800 level (fair value, but that's what was hard for me to own back in april).
- will be volatile. took a 50 bps punt (typically wb 25 bps on EPS like this) mainly bc of the sell off y day leaving more room for upside in my estimation than downside risk.
- as always. size accordingly.
- curious if anyone has nuanced POV.
V
SMCI getting ready to give up 2024 gainsSMCI getting ready to give up 2024 gains as the recession fear grows. On a bigger picture this could signal an upcoming selloff in the AI sector as a whole since NVDA and SMCI were the two biggest beneficiaries of the recent AI boom. This analysis is for informational purposes only.
507 BB this is earnings seasonCrossover 100/200 is a significant concern. Indicators are beyond a retest, but one session can change that if, for any reason, this can go lower as it's shown us the 500 sides now, I believe 584, before the bounce to 600s. I would be inclined to take a position in the 5s as long as the earnings and the future of this organization don't slap me too hard across the face. I still believe this belongs in the 1000s.
SMCI Short Trade SetupSMCI broke below a longer term bear flag today, but it's hard to say if the trade works or not yet. However, semis have been getting hammered and this is a longer term pattern so I like the odds. I took some puts when it tested the trendline, target is the bottom end where the trend started around $675.
All set for bounce towards 900?This may be the end of selling for this stock (OR CLOSE) and nvda(94 support). It must stay above 600. Sitting right at support price now. All the best.
SMCI in the middle of SMC, further flush coming?SMCI in the middle of SMC with higher probability of a flush down. This analysis is for informational purposes only.
SMCI: The Next Major Inflection Point! (D&W charts)On the daily chart, the stock experienced a notable downward breakout, moving sharply below a confluence of trendlines that had previously served as support. This breakout is significant as it suggests a strong bearish momentum, possibly indicating a shift in investor sentiment. The price is below the 21-day EMA, and there is no bottom signal on it yet.
In our previous public SMCI analysis, I warned you about this trend line, as a downwards breakout would frustrate any possibility of a bullish thesis, mid-term speaking. The link to our previous study, here on TradingView, is below this post.
Transitioning to the weekly chart provides a broader perspective, showing the stock's performance over a longer timeframe. Here, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level stands out as the next significant support level following the recent declines. This specific Fibonacci level is often watched by traders for potential reversal zones and could act as a strong area of interest for buying activities if prices were to reach this point.
The weekly chart also underscores a general downtrend after failing to maintain higher levels, which aligns with the bearish sentiment observed on the daily chart. The consistency of lower highs further emphasizes the pressure on the stock.
Overall, the convergence of these technical factors across different timeframes suggests that SMCI may face continued downward pressure in the near term, with crucial support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level possibly serving as a pivotal area for the stock's next directional moves.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
SMCI 2H 2024 vs ARKK '20-'23Posting this comparison to see how it plays out. SMCI is moving much faster than ARKK did during the covid boom, hence SMCI 1d vs ARKK 3d.
If this plays out, this is going to get real interesting real fast.
SMCI Death by a 1000 cutsSuper Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) has had a parabolic run, but to me, it’s looking a bit like a bloated pig on stilts. Amidst the geopolitical tension with China and the Taiwan situation, it's a precarious spot for U.S. tech.
If the republic of China political mandates starts get inforced by the PRC of China policing into Taiwan and this start to hold up the chip facilities things are shaky..
SMCI’s got a gorgeous bear flag pattern going on, with the 325/200 EMA crossover giving the green light for a swing trade. The ATR is low, so expect more of a slow bleed rather than a dramatic drop—think death by a thousand cuts.
This is the Second Flag ive caught, I believe its a magnet to the yearly level (Orange)
Long way to go from here
Current situation: SKILLING:US100 : NASDAQ:SMCI is currently at support level.
Potential scenario: If tomorrow's earnings do not meet expectations, the stock could drop to around $450 in a heartbeat.
Why?
1. The movement that started on 4.03.2024 appears to be an ABC correction, and the stock is currently in wave C of that correction.
2. In an ABC correction, the most common Fibonacci level for wave C is when
Wave C = Wave A = 1 = $446
3. Other indicators, such as MACD, are also indicating a downward trend as expected.
The WavesInvesting indicator is also pointing to the same level as the Fibonacci ratio for its lower channel line.
However, if the earnings turn out to be very good, we may see support at the current level.
Simple question for you: support or down the water slide we go?
SMCI at 50% retrace and Trendline - long This is a fib pitchfork and Fib retrace. we have confluence at the 50% and trendline. This is a long for me.
SMCI - Getting ready for a take offSMCI has pulled back from the peaks, now it's trying to catchup with it's peers.
Long anywhere here
Target#1 1000
Target#2 1260
Stop Loss 650, it's little wide but that's the level to invalidate this move.
Clearly could take some timeAs a second to the third or maybe fourth post, I am glad to be confident that a reversal is in place. I do see 800 and more, more than I see 666 or less; the bottom is in.
Still back to 800 before earningsDue to tech, like everything else, this has cultivated into a string of selling just the same as the indices and other struggles from earnings reports, fundamentals, technicals, and geopolitical.
This is still on the cards, but at a low of 700, a good formation can fulfill the reversal as the candles are slowing down and resuming with lower volatility than they are accustomed to.
