CVS trade ideas
Buy CVS Apr17 85 Puts @ $4 ~ Swing short in DowntrendCVS is in a healthy downtrend and broke through the 200sma with strength. The RSI peaked with the prices retraced. Prices are now retracing with 34EMA and 200sma resistance. In addition, the 2nd leg of the retracement will be found @ 85.7. Multiple areas of resistance confluence.
Target a move to $80.50 for first profit stop and move to breakeven.
Rebounding off bottom: Buy.GOOD FUNDAMENTALS
Rated buy by analysts with 20% upside
Less volatile than the market (Beta 0.89)
Sensible valuation (P/E 15.72x, P/BV 2.18x)
Healthy growth (5 yr avg revenue +10%, ROE +14%)
TECHNICALLY IMPROVING
Has been on a downtrend since the historical top of July 2015
Long and medium term technical pictures still negative
Has retraced 53% of major move started in Dec 2011
Stock now appearing oversold (RSI<30)
Has found a temporary floor at $69.30 post disappointing earnings
This also corresponds to the 61.8% Fib retracement ($68.87)
FLOWS IMPROVING
After earnings sell-off on Nov 8 the stock traded up significantly on 5.5x average volume
PLAIN VANILLA LONG STRATEGY
Buy at the market
Stop loss $69.30
Time horizon year-end
Target 1 $81.25
R/R 1.73x
Target 2 $86.00
R/R 2.82x
$CVS Do or Die MomentHourly chart of $CVS consolidating after the earnings breakdown and subsequent follow up
Symmetrical triangle completeThere is only one way this can end up. I'm betting on breakout to higher side. IV is crushed. Calls are so cheap.
CVS cup&handle Not sure which direction but chances are more towards UPSIDE, if we clear 50/200 SMA around 97~97.50
CVS showing relative weakness, major support is broken Fundamentals:
Amazon’s growth has come at the expense of Wal-Mart, Target. Walgreens and CVS. Amazon’s key competitive advantage is its multiplatform approach with Amazon Prime, which includes same-day delivery for many goods, all of which should lead to rising number of consumers skipping the trip to the local supercenter, drug store or grocery market. For this reason, some old retailers may loose audience.
Technicals:
The price came off of the highs at $106.67, failed to hold support area around $102-103. And finally, broke major support on big volume that held since mid of March. ANd that happened during the rise of S&P - relative weakness.
Trade and Risk Management:
As the price went through my technical zone of entry on Friday, I will initiate short position at open price on Monday, with STOP above 21 EMA and measured target to $94.
CVS Potential Breakout to 113 & Beyond Hi all,
Here's an idea which is about capturing the possible continuation of price increase for pharmacy chain CVS.
1 Price for CVS has been steadily trending upwards, since price managed to break above $40.00 after 2012.
This trend took the price to as high as $113 in 29 July 2015. So between Jan 2012 to July 2015, CVS experienced a price increase of $73.00 over 43 months.
2 After reaching the $113 high on 29 July 2015, price went into a bearish retracement phase.
Price channeled lower from 113, breaking below $100 but managed to find support at around $92.
Subsequently the stock traded higher, hitting $104 on 04 Apr 2016 and maintaining the price above $100 for the whole of April, before closing at $104.85 on 9 May 2016.
The price action from Aug 2015 up to May 2016 is potentially a head and shoulders formation.
In this context, it means potentially the overall 5 month retracement phase from 113 to 92 is likely to be over, with the continuation phase underway.
A simple measure of the inverted Head and Shoulder height indicates that a possible target of $118, if price does a reversal breakout.
Projection:
We project that price will try to trade higher and aim to trade at the previous high of $113.00, if price is able to do a daily close above 106.00.
Entry Condition:
When price can do a daily close above $106.00.
The neckilne of this pattern is arond $105.00.
However there maybe some last ditch attempts by the bearish traders to keep the price below 105.00.
Therefore a close above $106.00, will be a safer entry.
In a sense you are "trading" off a bit of the risk reward ratio, due to a higher entry price, for more certainty of a profitable position.
Stop Loss:
Below 103.30.
The moment a breakout of a Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern occurs, price should never trade back below the neckline.
If price trades below the neckline, the pattern is rendered failed and a short squeeze of the bulls caught in the trap will likely occur.
Hence a stop below the 105.00 is proposed.
Please trail the stop higher to breakeven, if price is able to trade above 109.00.
Taking Profit:
Close 80% at around $113.00
Close 20% at around $118.00 or if price trades below 108.00, after reaching 113.00.
Should a breakout be successful and price trades higher, it is very likely that price will try and hit 113.00. and beyond.
This is purely behavioural for the market to find out what was the highest price traded and use that as a targeting basis.
Which is what trading trending markets is all about: reaching new highs and diving new lows.
Therefore it is quite certain, should the breakout happen, that price can hit around 113.00.
However there is also a possibility that price can trade above 113.00 and hit around 118.00, as indicated by the Inverted H&S height projection.
Hence we might consider closing 80% of the position, on a high probability target of 113.00 and leave 20% for the price to run further up towards the inverted H&S target.
Time Limit:
Close all positions if price is unable to reach 113 or higher by 01 Aug 2016.
Close all positions if price is unable to reach 118 or higher by 06 Sep 2016.
Have a profitable day~!
CVS short I purchased several put contracts for 98 strike jan 15 for 1.45 before the bell on thursday. Looking foward to ride it down to 95. Will sell puts for 100% gains at 3.00 then wait for retest of 97.76 to reshort down to 91.57 . Looking foward to gains this next couple weeks. gonna be hugeeeee
CVS short98 puts bought friday for 1.45 plan on selling for 3.00 sometime next week when stock hits $95. Sell for bounce back to 97.77 then repurchase for cheaper price to ride down to 91.57
CVS - Retesting Several Points of ResistanceUsing a similar trade setup from an October post, which resulted in gains of 155% within 10 days. Since returning to it's 52 week low in min-November, CVS has rallied back into the ~$100 area. Its current rally has lasted 21 trading sessions, nearly identical to the length of the 20-day October rebound.
It now faces several significant points of resistance: 1) back testing the channel that it previously broke down out of in mid-November, 2) the $100 previous gap and psychological level, 3) the descending trend line formed by the previous two peaks, 4) the RSI backtesting the longstanding trend line, and 5) the RSI having returned to the level (53) where CVS previously peaked in late-Oct. General market also appears heavy - the S&P 500 is down 0.75% today, following a retest of its 200 day MA.
Bought some Feb '16 $95 puts @ $2.05/contract. CVS shares were last trading at $98.51. First target is between $94 & 95.5. Allowing a maximum of 20 trading days for this trade, with a stop loss just above $100.
12/28/2015 - 11:21am EST
Long at retracement to supportWell this is one of the stocks I like to trade at least 2-3 times every quarter. I'll keep this brief because I'm at work lol. But as you can see the stock made a new high followed by a retracement to support at the 106 /108 area. So I entered long yesterday during the New York lunch hour. My initial target is 112.50 - 113.00. Stops are below 104.10.
Cheers, and best of luck! =D
Notes:
Some confirmations that you can look for is an MA cross between the fast / slow moving averages, currently resistance is at the 20-day moving average. A daily close above gives more conviction to the position. Also price has found support at the 50-day moving average which adds a little more confidence to the position. Historically when the 9 / 20 MA's make a bearish crossover it has payed well to start looking to buy the dip below the cross.
CVS - Stage 4 rally anticipatedCVS - this has been one of the best bull of the year. Making all time highs over and over again. Is it tired? Not until the last accelerating line is broken.
CVS breaks pivot high but with a bearish barCVS has been trending well throughout 2013 and 2014 although there have been a couple of deep pullbacks in this time.
Since the deep February 2014 pullback the trend has been good but not great. A wide stop would've kept you in the trade but there have been more linear trends in play which would be less stressful to manage.
So saying, CVS has continued to make higher highs on a consistent basis. Yesterday's bar broke out on higher volume (against over market sentiment). Unfortunately the bar ended the session fairly bearish and did not clear the pivot high enough to inspire confidence for a further push up today. With price almost tipping $95 we're not far short of $100 (a psychological resistance) so it may be difficult to get into this stock even if price does continue it's upward move.
Filtering stochastic buy swingsKey takeaways:
Red lines are buy swing fake outs that could have been avoided by realizing MACD was under sub signal line (black)
Blue spaces with *'s represent times where the stochastic would move into OB territory (telling you upside should be limited) but it maintained continuous upward momentum (filtered via MACD upward cross as soon as the oscillator moved into this position)
Rare GEM ^_^Before Sept, a search of ALL-TIME-High stocks will return a results of at least 500 of them.
Right now, it is only about less than 25 of the all-time-high stock when i did the search
which is why this is a RARE GEM to me ^_^ That's right, my GREEDY face for shorting
*My projection is unfounded, so please do not treat this as an encouragement to start selling.
Based on the last two major market crash, CVS exhibited this characteristics. Once the uptrend commenced, the first leg of high will be made in one breath. And then came a correction or saw tooth period before making a 2nd higher high. Subsequent crash was the result once the higher high is formed.
Though not a strong warning, RSI has shown sign of fatigue and sliding lower as the current trend goes parabolic.
My take: If there is a rebound in major indices, i expect CVS to push to the max. That would give me a cheaper options to buy.
Plan: 1. Put options @83 strike
2. Put options @84.5 strike
3. Put options @86 strike
Yes, short all the way up.
Great rising Wedge CVS SHORTAnother picture perfect chart that was sent last week. Monday I will be focused on DPS short but better yet VZ flag long.
$CVS Intra Day Trading LevelCVS Caremark Corporation (NYSE:CVS) is coming under a little bit of early selling pressure. Short term day traders should watch for some intra-day support around the $61.90 level. This is area that should see a short term bounce.
Nicholas Santiago
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
CVS Short (Options)After third attempt to break $52.77(ish), seeing triple top. Short position to 50-day MA. Target #2 is lower support line. If price breaks upper resistance, exit short position and prep for long.
