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btcusdHello, my dear friends! I hope everyone is doing well. My beloved father has passed away, and I kindly request you to remember him in your prayers. After taking a break for some time, I am back to share my Bitcoin analysis today. Please note, this is not financial advice, but rather an idea that I’m sharing. Feel free to incorporate your own opinions. Currently, BTC/USD is trading in the 109,000 to 104,000 zone, which has been the target area for the market. If the market breaks this range, it could potentially move towards the 159,000 to 149,000 range. However, if the market chooses to retrace from here, it may reverse around the 60,000 level. If the 60,000 level is decisively broken to the downside, the market could target around the 31,000 level. I have shared my areas of interest; the rest is up to you to identify your points of interest. Thank you, and please remember me in your prayers.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by WiKiFX
What if This Bitcoin Scenario Happen ?Lets compare this scenario has lag around 12-14 weeks With this chart maybe we see more dumping ? I not spreading fud, but just "some" historical data. IMO it still can be happen, especially we have around 77k-80k CME gap, yes massive gap Can it fill it now ? or later ? If 87k support breakout i think it could happen But if still hold 87k area i think we create more up movement before dumping and alt season begin Notes : Based on my related ideas below, FYI China M2 still increasing, I more confident if 2025 run will be led by China
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Calon_Sultan
BTCUSD on the Brink: Massive Moves Expected – Are You Ready?Summary : This analysis examines two ascending wedges visible on the BTCUSD chart—a larger wedge on the weekly timeframe and a smaller wedge on the 4-hour chart. The price has broken out of the smaller wedge and is consolidating above the upper boundary of the larger wedge, which currently acts as support. Projections suggest a short-term decline to $82,000, followed by a rebound to $114,000 in mid-February, and a subsequent decline to $106,000 by the end of March. Key decision points are identified where trendlines for MACD, ATR, and RSI intersect, providing areas to monitor for potential price reversals. Indicators such as RSI divergence, MACD crossings, and increasing ATR signal weakening momentum and heightened volatility. Historical analysis aligns with the expectation of significant price movements between mid-December and mid-January. Ascending Wedge Patterns Two ascending wedges are visible: - The larger ascending wedge is on the weekly timeframe . - A smaller ascending wedge is present on the 4-hour chart . The price has broken out of the smaller wedge and is consolidating above the upper boundary of the larger wedge, which serves as support. There is a possibility of the price falling back into the larger wedge if support weakens. Price Projections Short-Term : The price is expected to decline to approximately $82,000 by mid-January . Medium-Term : A rise to around $114,000 is projected by mid-February . Long-Term : The price is anticipated to drop to approximately $106,000 by the end of March . Decision Points Mid-January : First decision point, suggested by MACD. Mid-February : Second decision point, aligned with ATR. Mid-March : Third decision point, indicated by RSI trends. RSI Divergence A bearish divergence is observed, where the price forms higher highs while RSI forms lower highs . This divergence is present on both the daily and weekly timeframes , signaling potential weakening momentum and a possible reversal. MACD Observations The MACD line has crossed below the signal line for the second time, reinforcing a bearish sentiment . ATR Analysis The ATR (Average True Range) on the weekly timeframe is increasing alongside price action. This indicates heightened volatility , often preceding significant market moves. Historical Volatility Bitcoin historically shows increased volatility between mid-December and mid-January . This aligns with the current technical setup and suggests the potential for significant price movements during this period. Sentiment Short-Term : Neutral to bearish , with a decline to $82,000 expected. Medium-Term : Bullish , with a rise to $114,000 anticipated. The overall outlook is mixed, with caution advised around key levels. DISCLAIMER: THIS ANALYSIS IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALWAYS CONDUCT YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE MAKING TRADING DECISIONS.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by fiki
Weekend Crypto Pulse: $BTC at $95,415 & $ETH Leading DeFi – Top Good morning, champions! ☀️ While traditional markets take a breather, crypto keeps the grind alive. 🕒 CRYPTOCAP:BTC holds strong at $95,415, still defying gravity, and CRYPTOCAP:ETH sits at $3,527, the DeFi heartbeat going strong. Weekend movers: 📈 CRYPTOCAP:AVAX up 4.5%, turning heads in the Layer-1 race. 📈 CRYPTOCAP:SOL climbing 3.2%, showing resilience in its recovery arc. Take a moment today: plan, prep, sip that coffee. 🛠️ Balance your charts with a bit of mindfulness—crypto’s a marathon, not a sprint. What’s your strategy for today’s market movers? Any hidden gems on your radar? Let’s share some insights. 💡
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DCAChampion
What's next for BTC? Will the correction go lower?Hello everyone, I invite you to review the situation of BTC, which has currently had a -15% price correction. This is a natural correction in the growth cycle, and what's more, much larger corrections at 20% or 30% levels often appeared in bull cycles. Let's start with how the price moved in the local growth trend channel, in which we can see how dynamically we went down to the lower zone of the channel, which translated into a further drop in price reaching the support level at $ 91,712. In such a situation, it should be taken into account that very often leaving the channel gives a movement close to the channel height, which could cause the BTC price to drop to the support level at $ 84,072. If the current rebound from the level of around $92,000 ends the current correction, however, here we see how the level of $95,004 poses effective resistance for the price, only when it is broken again will it go further to the area of ​​$101,000, and then again move towards the strong resistance zone from $106,000 to $108,000. On the RSI, taking into account the 12H interval, we have a visible descent with crossing the lower limit, which in previous situations gave rise to renewed price increases.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by cryptodailyuk
My Best analysis The chart you've provided shows a bearish trend on the 4-hour timeframe for Bitcoin (BTC/USD). It highlights key resistance and support zones: Resistance levels: Around 102,759, 100,958, and 99,376. Support level: Price is approaching 94,000. If the price fails to reclaim the resistance levels, the bearish momentum might continue. Ensure you manage risks effectively and follow your trading plan. Let me know if you want this analysis rephrased for TradingView or need further insights!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LunaTrader_SingnalsProvider
Breaking News: US Government Shutdown and Its Impact on Traders.🚨 Breaking News Alert: The US government has officially shut down as of midnight on December 20, 2024, due to Congress failing to pass a spending bill. This political drama has sent shockwaves through the markets, and traders need to be on high alert. What Happened? The House of Representatives rejected a spending bill backed by President-elect Donald Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk. The bill included a three-month extension of government funding and a two-year suspension of the debt limit. However, internal disagreements within the Republican party led to the bill's failure. Potential Market Impact Stock Market Volatility: Expect increased market volatility as investors react to the political instability. Major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average may experience sharp declines. Currency Fluctuations: The US dollar may weaken as investors seek safer assets, leading to fluctuations in currency markets. Commodity Prices: Commodities like gold often rise in value during times of political uncertainty. Keep an eye on these markets for potential gains. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve's response to the shutdown could influence interest rates. If the shutdown leads to economic disruptions, the Fed may reconsider its stance on rate hikes, affecting bond markets. Strategies for Traders Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on news updates and government announcements. Being aware of the latest developments can help you make informed decisions. Diversify: Diversifying your portfolio can help mitigate risks associated with market volatility. Consider spreading your investments across different asset classes. Hedge Your Bets: Use hedging strategies to protect your investments. Options and futures contracts can be useful tools for managing risk during uncertain times. Be Patient: Market reactions to political events can be unpredictable. Stay calm and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements. Conclusion While the government shutdown poses challenges, it also presents opportunities for traders who are prepared. By staying informed, diversifying portfolios, and using hedging strategies, traders can navigate the uncertain waters and potentially capitalize on market movements. Remember, even in times of political drama, there's always a strategy to keep you ahead of the game!.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by OakleyJM
$BTC recoveringMARKETSCOM:BITCOIN has recovered nicely. For now I think it is especially important that we really break the upcoming suply zone and retest it at the latest. In that case we are back in the trend and we have completely completed our correction. For now it looks good, but I remain slightly skeptical. Especially with a possible government shutdown. Although I just read the latest news that this will not happen. Hopefully this will bring some more certainty back to the market and that we will have a nice Christmas run in return. For now the supply has to become a demand sin and we are back on the right side. Be kind to the world and each other!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by RidgerR
Bitcoin Overall: Not a time for Panic!As you can see from the monthly candles, it is commonplace for the middle of a move up to have a monthly 'doji' type candle as we will probably have here this month. I think the probabilities are BTC closes the month similar to the other times in history, and then in January begins a nice monthly candle will be seen, just like before. There is a warning though--we are approaching the end of the bull market. According to Elliott Wave Theory there are only move waves in an impulse move like we are currently experiencing, and we are on wave 5/5!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Ian_Carsen
Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429. However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.' While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes. In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded): 1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x 2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x 3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x 4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x 5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors: 624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease) 122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease) 22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease) 7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease) The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916. There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around: On the bullish side: It's 'different' this cycle A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs Currency debasement means more demand for BTC The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow The halving pattern is still playing out Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest On the bearish side: The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction) A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now. There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021 The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble Discussion I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides. On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April. While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher. On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern. It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t . However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar. In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin. This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve). 2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs. Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k. There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals. Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy. Conclusion In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here. There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently. As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by pasojov
1
Technical Review - BTCThere are lots of confident predictions about where markets will head next. However, at its core, trading is about speculation and taking calculated risks—not about certainty. In this post, I'll share some technical trades in BTC from recent price action. While hindsight bias will naturally come into play, I did take several of these setups in real time. Higher Timeframe Context (1-Month) In terms of the higher timeframe context, there has been a clear uptrend with two distinct continuation setups (noticeable move up, followed by a contraction towards the mean price which then sets up for a continuation). At the current time there has been an attempt for a third move. These could have been entered on the range expansion from the contractive state, however when prices become extended towards the outer boundaries we better be cautious due to risk of mean reversion. At such extremes, its better to scale out or look for better opportunities. These locations are often reached as measured moves (assumed average price volatility is sustained, as seen on the right side of the chart). This does not meant the move is over, but rather where the risk of mean reversion is increased, price can deviate from average volatility all the time. This analysis is not a prediction of future behavior, but rather a review of recent events and how they could have been traded in technical terms. There is also a component of discretion, which occur in in real time, but is not relevant to asses at this point. Before we take a trade we want to consider: What is the current structure in play, is it a trend or a range? Where is price located within that structure, are we at or near extremes? In case above conditions are met, is there a setup or an entry trigger? This all boils down to the search for imbalance. Daily Timeframe: Range-Bound Trading Opportunities In terms of my trading timeframe, which is the daily, BTC has spent the past months within a distinct range. When such a structure is in play, the locations of interest are at or near the extremes (upper and lower boundaries) where imbalances tend to occur. Efficient trades at these extremes typically arise when there’s a failure test (also known as a failed breakout or 2B pattern). In these cases, price pushes outside the boundary, fails to follow through, and reverses back inside—often trapping participants and can fuel a move in the opposite direction. This dynamic tend to hold until there is an actual breakout, there is no bulletproof way to know what will happened, but most of the time it can be helpful to reference the higher timeframe. For example, in case breakout happen in opposite to the trend we can treat them as potential failures, while with trend (as in this case with BTC to the upside) we can either treat them as breakouts or at least not fade the move. There are however exceptions and nuances to these type of plays. On the chart, I’ve marked all failure tests where price moved back into the range and formed bullish continuation structures. These setups offered opportunities to enter and take profits. In my case, I typically targeted 1R trades on these setups, with some extending into full measured moves. In conclusion, its probably a decent idea to have a structured framework to locate imbalance, but it must be combined with discretion so we can adapt to different conditions. Its not about confident predictions, but rather probabilities and calculated risks. Don't become attached to positions, let the cumulative effect drive results.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trader-Shah