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2024-08-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Got their expected pullback but indexes have still not touched even the 4h 20ema. Markets closed near their open which was near yesterdays close. Mostly. Since bears could not even print something than a bear doji, we can expect more sideways at the highs before we will probably get another breakout above. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Small stop in the meltup but bulls bought it above the bull trend line. Same as for dax that I do not expect anything below 5600 for now and it should not go above 5650 before FOMC or you can consider me surprised. If anything, I’d bet on a bull breakout and not for strong bears. current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart key levels: 5600 - 5650 bull case: Bulls are currently buying the 2h 20ema and did so today. If they keep it above 5600 then 5650 is probably a magnet for tomorrow. On the 1h chart posted today was a two legged pullback down to the current channel and odds favor the bulls to trade back up. Invalidation is below 5600. bear case: Bears are happy with stopping the advance and scalps. They took profits at new lows today and the market was barely red on the daily chart. I absolutely expect bears to come around big time again but just not right now. Can JPOW surprise the markets this week or can the market look for an excuse to sell it hard again? Sure. Is this more likely than a continuation up? No. Invalidation is above 5650. short term: max bullish above 5600. Below I turn neutral and wait. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Selling above 5635 was good multiple times but only for scalps tbh.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
ES (S&P 500 Futures) continue with the UptrendOn ES (S&P 500 Futures), it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5618. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. GAP + Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
ES Analysis Week of 8/19/2024From the weekly perspective ES has a very large fair value gap (FVG) below. This week's candle is responsible for how large or small the FVG will be by the end of the week. So because of this we may want to look at a lower timeframe to gain an understanding of how much trading range we have this week to trade with. From daily perspective, there is a FVG above current price or a "Resistance FVG" with candlewicks (or "kids left in the daycare") left in it. This is a signal that price will come back and test the close of the daily FVG at 5630. If we continue with our top down analysis and look at the 2HR perspective, there is again, additional confirmation with candlewicks and bodies, left in the resistance FVG above current price action. The 2HR FVG closes at 5643. We also want to ensure we look below price action at "Support FVGs". From the daily perspective, price action could fall to retest the opening of the daily FVG at 5536. But beware of the 15min FVG close at 5550, above the daily opening! If price action is not ready to enter this lower FVG, we may find support at 5550. There is potential for this week's candle to form like a doji. We have inflation data later this week, so I believe today and tomorrow's movement will help set up the charts for any surprises with the data. Trade safe this week and take what the market can give you and be grateful for a profitable day! Happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RandiMichelle
ES continue with the UptrendOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price 5492. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
Fair Value for S&P 500, Price Targets for the next 12 monthsGoing into next week I calculate fair value for the S&P 500 to be between 5,400 and 4,800 with an average target of 5,100 over the next 12 months. The low end of the range factors in any chance that we see the economy creep to a stagnant point over the next 12 months. If by some miracle the economy should continue to experience above average GDP growth, the S&P 500 could go as high as 6,300 in the year ahead Investors should be cautious about making any large stock purchases if we continue to see unemployment rise and GDP growth slow. Holding off for better buying opportunities is for the best with the S&P 500 above the 5,400 level. The market is likely to continue to see downward pressure. Right now, earnings growth projections are lofty and likely to be revised downward over the next 6 months.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by D1Finance
8.18.2024 Weekly Pre-Market Analysis S&PThis is my Weekly Pre-Market Analysis on the S&P> Right now we are going to wait for market structure to form. We saw lower highs and higher lows form on Friday after the last bullish move up. So we do not have a clear direction as to which way if may head. We have a plan for a SHORT position as well as a plan for a LONG position. We just need to watch the LOWS & HIGHS form on the 15 minute chart, before we even think of getting into a trade.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by MoneyDuck_Butch
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday. comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. current market cycle: Trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: From panic to euphoria. Good times. Bulls want a close of the bear gap to 5650 now and if they manage that, no reason we can’t print a new ath. More likely though is that we stay below 5600 and go much more sideways and wait for a new impulse. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears are gone it seems. Best they can hope for now is to stay below 5600 and make the market go sideways. If big sellers appear again, first target would be 5500 and then a close below daily ema but that is very low probability as of now. No bigger update this week since parallels to dax are big and I do think it’s best to be neutral here and wait for a pullback and see where that goes. Invalidation is above 5650. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there. → Last Sunday we traded 5370 and now we are at 5578. My upper targets were 5450 and bulls just melted it. Part of outlook was ok because you don’t get bearish at climactic selling lows but this reversal is not anything that is likely to happen after such selling. short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. medium-long term: Same as dax. I wait and let market give more info. Right now it’s max confusion. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed all but the small bear gap.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds