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ISP1! trade ideas

2024-09-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Since today was a very slow day, my weekly update is more interesting than today’s daily update (in case you haven’t read it). Indexes - Disappointment for the bulls was my assumption for today and that we got. Boring sideways movement in tight trading ranges. DJI was the only market with strength, printing a new ath but closing below 41700, so probably mostly a liquidity grap. Wednesday we have FOMC and I don’t expect markets to move far away from their current ranges. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Small green doji on the daily chart. Not much to comment about. Market closed 11 points above the open price and mean reversion was profitable today. I expect the triangle on the daily to hold until FOMC. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 -5670 bull case: Please see my weekly update. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears got 1 decent bear bar on the 1h chart and bulls bought it. Until bears can print 3-4 consecutive bear bars on the 1h tf, they have nothing going for them. Best they can hope for is to stay below 5670 Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Neutral between 5600-5670 and I don’t expect a break of this range until FOMC. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying bar 39 low was perfect but any bar from 39-46 was ok. Market clearly did not want to go lower then open price is always an obvious magnet on ranging days.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
ES (S&P 500 Futures) continue with the UptrendOn ES (S&P 500 Futures) , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price 5570. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Trader Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
Combined US Indexes - Bullish Flip?Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support. Current flip to Bullish Confirms with breakout of trendline (after Gap closure) Watch these week's price action...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
$MES1! 4hr AnalysisWhat's up ya'll?! Based on what I'm seeing, the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Future ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) on the 4hr is in a consolidation zone between 5,592.50 and 5,661 (68.5 ticks). I have marked the chart with a bearish Fibonacci retracement from ATH on Jul 16th to the low on Aug 5th. If price goes below 5,619 (mid-point of previous day ), then there is a possibility price will run back down to the 0.786 mark at 5,592.50 (26.5 ticks). If price surpasses the heavy resistance at around the 0.9 bearish Fibonacci (5,661) then next price target is all-time highs at 5,721.25. A lot will be based on the economic and financial news this week.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Brandonthrives
s&p in expanding formation, likely a higher high incominghey. s&p is creating a lower low, then as buyers surpassed the previous low, buyers proved themselves, they likely will go to the previous high and create a higher high as price 'breathes' how high? i dont know, breakeven at previous high and attempt a 1:4 look at this chart on 5m timeframe , then divergences will make sense as confluences, we dont care about h bear, its uptrend so we can ignore that, we like the bullish ones
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by user2839409
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Neutral. Big triangle on the daily chart and we are 40 points below the previous big resistance. Resistance is just that until clearly broken. Sideways movement between 5400 - 5670 is more likely than a new ath above 5721. If bulls break above 5670, a new ath becomes more likely and bellow 5550 I think the bears are favored again, at least for 5400. Quote from last week: comment: Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 - 5700 bull case: Traps on both sides and 5630 is a very good place to trap bulls again, like they did 2 weeks ago. Not much more to say other what I wrote in my comment. Bulls are slightly favored here until bears come around again but buying above 5600 right now is a bad trade, no matter how you put it. If bulls get follow through on Monday, I join them but no earlier. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high or probably face a new ath test. Since bulls printed a 5 bar micro channel last week, bears have no good arguments until they print a bear bar on the daily chart. Market is undecided and erratic, don’t overstay your welcome to either side. If we see 5700+ next week, I will think deeply about when and where to short. Last time we hit 5700, market spent 5 days around that price before turning down hard for 10%. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. → Last Sunday we traded 5419 and now we are at 5629. I warned against being bearish at the lows and wait for a pullback. Pullback was way stronger than expected so meh outlook. short term : Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed the ABC correction and added the bull wedge.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Possible Massive WhipSaw Twice More into EOY.Certainly, if a new high is made whatsoever, I would say we're going to the moon. But this last rally sucks. It was highly irregular, felt like day trader covering, and had no real commitment. If you take the last two lowest points on the long term, and you create this channel on it with the high. You get this channel and I made some subfibs also. We've already double tested that trend line, but if you are shorts, that is the exact line you'd need to break to go into recession. In my limited experience, when a second break out happens like it did in Oct 23, and you skip over some of the first small fibs to make this run on weak squeezes, you could trigger a slow moving violent dip that shows MACD (Linda's modified) getting stronger and more bullish even as price takes huge dips. I'll be watching this divergence. And I think it will take it right back to the last 23% sub fib of the last zone of this channel. I mean, right to the brink before we see the greatest covering of all time. I expect some wild stuff on this contract change since the next contract over is trading 50-60 pts above our current one. I bet we have to drop hard into that contract change, and then we gap up but still in down trend and we enter into this next of 3 dives. I will be doing my best to not trade the middle of these trends, because you have zero idea how price action will move. If in fact it does honor these levels, and I get a short or long at the right pivot, I'll just hold small contract size hoping to accumulate my account for the final high risk high reward finish to this thing. Psycho Market.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by CaptainLogik