Full Trading Plan For ES/SPX Oct 25thPlan for Friday:
Supports:
• Major: 5842, 5825, 5805-07, 5787, 5763, 5756, 5746, 5725-29, 5711, 5690
• Minor: 5853, 5848, 5838, 5818, 5814, 5798, 5783, 5774, 5768, 5751, 5740, 5733, 5715, 5702, 5695
Overview:
Today was a straightforward backtest of 5864 followed by a dip, then a return to that level, marking a typical rangebound day. We are now in a new consolidation range between 5865-68 and 5825. Trading within this range could be tricky and highly technical, so predicting is a losing strategy. For tomorrow, I’ll trade light, expecting continued chop unless the 5865-68 resistance clears.
Key Zones for Tomorrow:
• 5842 is the first support down but is now less reliable due to today’s battleground. If ES dips to 5838 and reclaims it, I may consider going long, but only if no new highs above today’s peak are made first.
• Below 5838, expect a fast flush to 5825 (major support). I’d consider a long here if there’s a failed breakdown of today’s low (~5822), meaning a recovery above 5825 after a brief flush. If 5825 fails, it could indicate that bears still have control, and longs become riskier. The next key long interest is 5805-07 or failed breakdowns of yesterday’s low.
• Deeper support for long interest would be 5756 if we see a larger flush.
Resistances:
• Major: 5865-68, 5882, 5890-92, 5910, 5919, 5945-47, 5971
• Minor: 5861, 5878, 5886, 5899, 5902, 5907, 5914, 5927, 5933, 5940, 5958, 5966
We haven’t cleared the significant 5865-68 resistance yet. Even if we pop up there tomorrow, another dip is likely before any breakout. If we do break through, we could see a squeeze up to 5882, potentially followed by a dip before pushing higher to 5892. If the breakout continues, we may see a push toward new ATHs in the next leg up.
For those interested in shorting, 5882 is a potential level. However, I won’t be shorting above 5865-68.
Buyers Case Tomorrow:
Buyers case would see ES continue to consolidate between 5825 and 5865 before breaking to the upside. The scenario would likely involve a pop to 5865-68, followed by one more dip (could be significant or small), and then a breakout targeting 5882 and 5892. Afterward, a dip may happen before pushing higher toward ATHs.
• I’ll keep an eye on 5842 for long opportunities on dips and potential recoveries at 5848.
Sellers Case Tomorrow:
Sellers need to break 5825 to regain control. If 5825 fails, it could indicate that the recent dip was not a one-off. However, breakdown trades are risky as 80% of breakdowns typically trap traders. These setups require a high skill level and may fail multiple times before paying off significantly.
• I won’t chase shorts after a 30-point sell-off. I’d prefer to see 5825 tested, or a failed breakdown of today’s low before shorting under the bounce structure (possibly around 5818 or higher).
Summary for Tomorrow:
• Expect consolidation between 5825 and 5865-68 with potential ping pong price action.
• Leaning toward a pop to 5865-68, then possibly a dip before breaking out higher to 5882+.
• If 5825 fails, we could see further selling.
Trade cautiously in this consolidation range, as the price can take complex, unpredictable paths.
