VALEBearish short term,
It is still about to touch the trend line, vale/iron ore RATIO,
watch next week
XVALO trade ideas
VALE: Elliott Wave AnalysisWe're looking at an Expanded Flat correction in Wave 2, with Wave C forming a Complex Corrective ABCDE triangle pattern
After breaking down from the triangle pattern, Wave C is likely to terminate near major support levels (~$7.50-$6).
Implications for Wave (3):
Once Wave (2) concludes, a powerful impulsive Wave (3) is expected, with targets around:
$27-29 (161.8% extension).
~$40 (261.8% extension).
The triangle within Wave C suggests exhaustion of the bearish trend, setting the stage for a multi-year rally.
Based on Vale's goals in producing and expanding on their "energy transition" metals like nickel (currently the second largest nickel miner in the world) and copper, and the demand for EV batteries. It's likely that Vale will benefit.
This is a long projection so Vale will have to execute on all its timelines and goals for production capacity.
Best of luck all.
Vale - Breaking Trade 12/3/2024There was a great breakout trade opportunity on Vale's stock, enhanced by a refined entry strategy. The red zone highlights a key support level where the price struggled to break through. Eventually, a breakout occurred with a strong bearish candlestick, confirming sellers' strength. However, instead of entering immediately at the breakout, the ideal entry point would be on the pullback to the red zone.
After the breakout, the price retraced back to the support zone, which then acted as resistance. Notice how the price tested this zone but failed to close above it, indicating that sellers remained in control. The optimal entry would occur when the price breaks below the low of the retracement candle, confirming the continuation of the bearish move.
This approach allows for a more precise entry, reduces risk by setting a stop-loss above the resistance zone, and offers a better reward-to-risk ratio as the trend resumes downward. It’s a textbook example of a breakout-retest setup with confirmation.
Thank you for reading! If you found this content helpful, don’t forget to like, comment, and share the idea. Follow me on TradingView!
Vale - Breaking Trade 12/4/2024There was a great breakout trade opportunity on Vale's stock, enhanced by a refined entry strategy. The red zone highlights a key support level where the price struggled to break through. A breakout occurred with a strong bearish candlestick, confirming sellers' strength.
Thank you for reading! If you found this content helpful, don’t forget to like, comment, and share the idea. Follow me on TradingView!
A case for long term investment and DCANYSE:VALE Is at an inflection point. It is a stock I have been watching for a long time as it has a nice Elliott wave pattern (If correct)
Here I present the Weekly chart as I consider it for my long term portfolio (3+ years BUY and Hold)
Although the chart presented here looks great (Read: Phenomenal), as an analyst utilising multiple methods, the story does not unfold as easily as I'd like.
As can be seen in the snapshot below there are multiple 'anomalies' still outstanding at those green zones on the magnified weekly chart. They may or may not be filled, but our awareness of them should cause us to move forward with caution.
On the Elliottwave side of things, there are two ways of looking at this. Either the recent top at ~$23 was wave i of 3 of (3) or the top of Primary w(1). If the latter is true then we will likely drop lower in to one of the green bands.
So the question remains - how do we take advantage of this given a drop to just above $3?
1) You can Dollar Cost Average in at each stage distributing your allocated capital
2) Wait for a bounce in a five wave move and enter at the correction for w2 of that bounce. Use the low for a stop loss.
There is no perfect way to manage the unknowns, you can only manage your primary objective, which should be to safeguard your capital -
If you want to know my thoughts on NYSE:VALE and other names give this a boost and follow.
best of luck!
Position trade with 50%+ upside potentialTrading near 8-year lows (not considering COVID-19 drop) VALE seems way undervalued both from PE - PS ratio standpoint and also when comparing with its peers. The stock price has reacted three times in $9.75 - $9.80 level. The period of November-December is the starting point of price appreciation since 2021 (although each time the rise in price was not as great as in the previous year). There is a significant resistance at the $12 mark (a level that acts as a strong support also). The stock is in a downward channel, with lower highs since the summer of 2021, where the stock hit a 12-year high of $22.50 approximately. The stock drops steadily on low volume and that signifies an exhaustion in selling power. If buyers step in and the $12 resistance breaks, first target will be $13 and the next one will be near $16 which is my goal for that trade.
When analyzing the options market, volume and open interest, as well as the call vs put sentiment, show that bullish sentiment dominates with 72% (approximately) of trades reflecting optimism, mostly through calls targeting higher future prices.
Iron ore prices and demand (mainly from China) might pose a threat, but at these levels I cannot see the price sliding further.
VALE ADR Possible buyIt´s been almost five years of congestion.
Definitely it will resume to the upside after a break of 17 ... and still far away from there.
From now I point several supports that could be good buying points.
According to valuations and fundamentals the stock look Cheap.
VALE LongNear Weekly support line.
Weekly demand Zone, not fresh.
Entry 10.24
Stop 8
Target 22
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
VALE LONGGGGthis stock will boom up to 50% higher, with earnings coming tomorrow i think it should act as a trigger to this consolidation, it might touch 10.11$ - 9.92 at most before reversing back up
heavily buying this correction
6 stocks to add to your portfolio for huge upward potentialI believe at least 5 stocks from these 6 stocks will offer more than 100% return in 2 to 3 years. Regarding TSLA I will be waiting for better entries.
Disclaimer: Not a financial advice. Do your own analysis.
VALE
retraced as expected to 10.85, looking extremely bullish on the weekly and monthly charts. locking in 12% dividend at current rate with a P/E ratio at 5, this stock is a steal
Vale S.A. is riding the wave of optimism as the Brazilian stockVale S.A. is riding the wave of optimism as the Brazilian stock market rebounds, buoyed by China's economic stimulus and rising iron ore prices.
Vale S.A. has emerged as a frontrunner in the recent upswing of the Brazilian stock market, with shares soaring over 4.5% thanks to an increase in iron ore prices driven by renewed demand from China.
As the world's largest iron ore exporter, Vale stands to benefit significantly from China's stimulus measures aimed at revitalizing its economy. This positive momentum underscores Vale's vital role in Brazil's economy, reflecting broader trends in the commodities sector and showcasing investor confidence in the company's future performance amid ongoing global challenges.
Rewards
Price-To-Earnings ratio (5.3x) is below the BR market (9.9x)
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 29%
Risk Analysis
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.8% per year for the next 3 years
Dividend of 11.58% is not well covered by free cash flows
Vale trend downVale the biggest brazilian iron ore company is showing a big weakness mainly due to slow down in the chinese economy, for moment its sell
$9.70 for new support and possible bottom?Support around $9
I am long on Vale.
Please point out any mistake on drawings.
$9.70 for new support and possible bottom?Support around $9
I am long on Vale.
Please point out any mistake on drawings.
$VALE looks like a good longQuite a big timeframe. building support at this level. RSI/momentum looks like it can easily pull us up. Nice easy stop location. What do you think?
The stock (VALE S.A.) Analysis
1. Price Range and Trends:
The stock (VALE S.A.) has been in a downtrend since early 2024, falling from highs around $15.50 to current levels near $11.20. There's a clear long-term downtrend, but we're seeing signs of potential reversal.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
- Strong resistance: $13.04
- Key support: $11.20
- Secondary support: $11.00
- Potential resistance: $12.61
3. Recent Price Action:
The price has recently found support around $11.20-$11.24, forming a potential bottom. This level has held multiple times, suggesting it's a strong support zone.
4. Buy Point and Take Profit:
The chart indicates a "Buy Point" around the current price levels ($11.20-$11.24) and a "Take Profit" target near $12.61.
5. Potential Trade Setup:
Based on the chart, a long (buy) position could be considered with the following parameters:
- Entry: $11.20-$11.24
- Stop Loss: Below $11.00
- Take Profit: $12.61-$13.04
6. Risk/Reward Ratio:
Assuming an entry at $11.24, stop loss at $10.95, and take profit at $12.61:
- Risk per share: $0.29
- Potential reward per share: $1.37
- Risk/Reward ratio: approximately 1:4.7, which is favorable
7. Volume Analysis:
Without clear volume data, it's difficult to confirm the strength of the potential reversal. Ideally, we'd want to see increasing volume on up days to confirm buying pressure.
8. Timeframe:
This setup appears to be targeting a medium-term trade, potentially over several weeks to months.
Risks and Considerations:
1. The overall trend is still bearish, so we're trading against the main trend.
2. There's potential resistance at $12.61 before reaching the main take profit level.
3. Lack of volume data makes it harder to confirm the strength of the potential reversal.
Conclusion:
The chart suggests a potential buying opportunity at current levels, with a favorable risk/reward ratio. However, traders should be cautious due to the overall bearish trend and confirm the reversal with additional indicators and volume analysis before entering a position. It's crucial to adhere to strict risk management practices, given the stock's volatile nature and the uncertain market conditions.
VALE Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of VALE prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 12usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $0.79.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Support until dieMining Companies discount based on FEF prices. Support area where we can find good opportunities for Long position.
VALE at weekly supportConsidering the iron ore price, the company's valuation (and it's historic) and the chart support between $11~$12, I'm longing it. Main target between $15~$17.
VALE is just hanging togetherVale S .A. (VALE), one of the largest producers of iron ore, recently posted controversial financial results. On the one hand, the company was more than successful in executing its strategy, largely led by record iron ore prices (a 22% increase YoY in Q4 2023). Both revenue and EBITDA exceeded consensus estimates, however, EPS was a large miss.
Vale’s adjusted net earnings have been thwarted by the increase in provision for environmental settlements. Brazilian company reported a 35% drop in fourth-quarter net income, missing analysts' expectations due to a 40% increase in provision for environmental settlements totaling $4.21 bn from $3 bn announced previously. This will have a devastating effect on the company’s FCF in the coming quarters.
VALE stock is notches towards the lower end of the support channel, bringing hopes of a rise in stock prices. The stock price, however, is subject to fluctuations in iron ore pricing, which has recently hit 3-year high, while the stock price has been in a downtrend since 2021. A further slump in iron ore prices could thus trigger VALE selloff.
VALE Wedge I have been tracking this Vale wedge for a long time and I have been averaging into this stock all last year, I continue to add to my position. Vale is a play on iron with a huge capacity for revenue and increased earnings. The dividend is strong and the upside potential for this wedge is substantial. At some point during the green box I expect a huge move to the upside or downside. My target is 24$ at the fib, but we will see.
Vale longCiao,
nice looking consolidation for Vale. Premarket is showing weakness, but I'm hoping to get back to the zone and trade LONG.
We shall see, but I like the setup here.
-Arnold
