BLX trade ideas
MicroStrategy - Bitcoin Holdings Chart & Purchase HistoryPrices and volumes of Bitcoin purchases at MicroStrategy
Over 9k BTC at an average price of 58000. 19452 Btc at $52765.
Even these whales are buying at the tops and sitting in the minuses for years
The largest holder of Bitcoin on the planet is not Microstrategy , but the Chinese government, cryptoanalysts found (twitter.com/cryptoquant_com).
In 2019, Chinese authorities confiscated 194 thousand #BTC , 833 thousand #ETH and other coins as a result of an investigation into PlusToken fraud. To this day, the confiscated crypto lies in the wallets of China's national treasury.
In comparison, MicroStrategy has about 130,000 bitcoins .
27 march
MicroStrategy repaid its $205M Silvergate loan at a 22% discount . As of 3/23/23, $MSTR acquired an additional ~6,455 bitcoins for ~$150M at an average of ~$23,238 per #bitcoin & held ~138,955 BTC acquired for ~$4.14B at an average of ~$29,817 per bitcoin .
Best regards EXCAVO
Bitcoins tumultuous path to 130kAs we entered the bull cycle after exiting the red bubble, the clock started. We have measured each bull market gains since the beginning of bitcoin, and the factor is 1.618. Formula is as follows;
To find the next number in the pattern, let's examine the relationships between the given numbers:
297 ÷ 183 = 1.626
51.8 ÷ 30.8 = 1.678
10 ÷ 6 = 1.667
1.4 ÷ 0.8 = 1.75
The pattern appears to involve dividing each number by a decreasing, but relatively close value. The differences between these division results are not consistent. However, there seems to be a general trend of division with values around 1.6 to 1.7.
Let's continue this pattern and divide 1.4 by a value close to 1.6 to 1.7:
1.4 ÷ 1.65 ≈ 0.848
So, the next number in the pattern could be approximately 0.848.
848% is the next gain percentage of next bull cycle.
Thats the easy part; the factor we cannot relate to is TIME. We are left to charting fractals and Trying to find ratios between previous cycles and bull markets. My calculations say Nov '24. Election time.
I titled this tumultuous because though we have the ability to go straight up and God candle, I think that is unlikely as 70k resistance is strong. I think the faster we go up and touch that resistance (40k in 2wks) the quicker and deeper the downturn would be, we see our purple line stretching diagonally to november, its not straight up and down like the previous bull markets. Leaving us to infer we could have a deep ABC wave depending how quick we touch 70k from here (35k)
Slow bleed up $BTC (weekly)How is the bull market treating everyone?
Not as fast as you might like? I feel you
My creentrend pressure script which is free and open source on my page has printed (x) and held that stance for multiple weeks now, making bitcoin have that upward wave. The creen trend pressure signals are (in one part) the relation of price to the upper and lower bollinger bands, which are slowed to 55.
These printed signals signify the impending move of bitcoin, as there is no faking the move that is already happening.
UPDATED $BTC Quantitative ChartDear Traders and CryptoLovers!
I am saddened I need to update this QUANTITATIVE Chart as a tradingView Mod removed my last post for having a logo... but rules are rules. If you need to prove my awesomeness and accuracy of the last chart, I will add the post to Medium, and you'll also find it on social media - links at the bottom of this post and on my profile.
My thoughts...
I'm about to speak Elliott Wave - so if you are not a fan, skip this part.
BTC is likely in the 1st subwave of the PRIMARY 3 of the Supercycle Wave structure
In the current wave pattern, the current wave is one primary wave of the 3rd supercycle.
This needs to pass the ATH to confirm 1 of 3 Supercycle - which it almost has, so here we are!
1st of 3rd PRIMARY WAVES - SUPERCYCLE!
3rd SUPERCYCLE WAVE Formation corrections in the larger pattern 'should' be faster as Elliott wave describes a 3rd wave as the swiftest and usually longest.
Taking into account the 4-year cycle, the 5th subwave of Primary 1 of the 3rd wave Supercycle should be completed by 21st March, allowing for 1-2 months correction for the Primary 2 of the 3rd Wave Supercycle with this 2nd wave bottom formed before APRIL -MAY 2024 or before the bitcoin halving event. Coincidence or not, there is a LUNAR ECLIPSE on 24-25 MARCH :)
QUANTITATIVE CHART
I have adjusted my idea starting from August 22, 2022, as more data becomes available.
This chart shows the 4-year cycle broken down and event timing, which are accurate.
QUANTITATIVE CHART
Scroll down to the last idea, as this preceded the taken-down post.
SUPERCYCLE WAVE PROJECTION - Using "LISANACCI" I have projected the following -
Depending on wave measurements as we progress well into 2025 we could see a high to over 200K - super bullish or lower wave targets as shown on the chart when more data is available.
I will update as the chart progresses, and if you want my daily BTC updates, my information is in the footer and on my profile.
end of bull run planplaying around with dates
look at the bleu line .very interesting pump today
send me your toughts
BTC ROAD TO 200K: Its Not Magic Just Follow The Pattern Pinky: Its too early for a rally, Perky; we need a correction...
Perky: Hold my bear, Pinky; you'll get it when I'm high.
PS: This chart is a continuation of our previous BTC chart published on May 16, 2022, with slight modifications; a link to the previous chart is below.
Chart Keys
Orange Horizontal Line|~Prox Halving Dates
Yellow Bars: Range From Halving to ATH
Pink Bars: Range From ATH to Bottom
Red Channel: Period of Accumulation
Not so much has changed in our chart since the last time, with prices taking shape as earlier expected. Currently, we've seen the price scale through the accumulation phase after hitting the lows of <$16,000 in Nov 2022.
Highlights:
1. From charts, we can see it takes bitcoin exactly 3 years from the last ATH to get back to ATH levels again, as seen in 2013–2016, 2017–2020, and 2021–2024.
2. Usually, breaking ATH signifies the start of the MARK-UP phase in the cycle movement.
3. In the past, ATH is usually broken after halving has taken place, but this time we may be seeing a price break past ATH before halving, which is a massive change and huge indication for exponential growth. These changes might be due to Bitcoin ETF effects on the macro perspective.
4. After halving, we have approx. 1 year until the new ATH, and if the trend continues the way it is right now, we may see massive upside change.
My Expectations for the Cycle:
Usually, i base my BTC price expectations on several factors;
1. Total Market Cap: In the last cycle, we saw a 3X Mkt Cap growth from the previous ATH of about MIL:1T in 2017 to $3T in 2020. If the same applies, we might see net Mkt Cap grow from $3T in the last cycle to >$9T by 2025. This is very possible, as ETFs, futures, and mass awareness are already in place.
2013-2017 Cycle: Mass Awareness Propelled by Retail Investors.
2017-2021 Cycle: Futures Market, Institutional Acceptance by Mixed Retail/Institutions.
2021–2025 Cycle: ETF, Futures, Institutions, by All Parties.
Honestly, this might turn out to be the biggest cycle rally since the 2013–2017 cycle.
All things being equal, at $9T, Mkt Cap bitcoin dominance will likely be around 40–50%, which should set it at $T3.8–4.5 and likely put the price in the range of $178k to 238k/BTC. MASSIVE!!!
2. Halving Effect: This year, the halving effect should set the mining reward at 3.125 BTC per block, which would increase the average cost of mining from the previous $19k to about $38k. Naturally, this will set the new average fair price for BTC at $40,000 and, of course, the market value at $60,000.
Based on history:
2013 Cycle: >9000% Growth from Halving Price
2017 Cycle: >3000% Growth from Halving Price
2021 Cycle: >1000% Growth from Halving Price
2025 Cycle: >300% Growth from Halving Price???
As seen above, I'm expecting a 300% growth from the halving price, which likely should be from $60k to $180k, which is a fair value and tallies with our Mkt Cap Expectations above.
This makes a lot of sense as naturally supply and demand tend to kick in with full force after halving, and considering ETF in play, the demand will be massive, coming from large institutional investors, hedge funds, asset management firms, BTC intrinsic market trading being the best performing asset of the year, and so on.
PS: Chart will be updated after halving in April
Honestly, this might turn out to be the biggest cycle rally since the 2013–2017 cycle.
Disclaimer: This chart analysis is purely done with price action, personal observation, thoughts, and halving cycles; it does not take into consideration any fundamentals and should only be used for educational/entertainment purposes, not to be construed as a form of financial advice
it seems a bit crazy but Jonas askedlet's see in 2028 how it actually unfolded
its gonna be a wild ride
Trade #10 ShortMacro: No high inflation likely during next 4 years of Republican term. No reason for Bitcoin to breakout to new ATHs yet. If it's not going up, it's probably going to retest the lows instead of being stable (to push for max pain).
Technical: ETFs provided exit liquidity for smart money
BTC/USD Elliott Wave Analysis Monthly ChartHere is my Elliott Wave analysis of past cycle tops and bottoms along with projections for future wave counts.
We can see some very interesting fractals regarding the date ranges between the Bitcoin halving events and the corresponding tops and bottoms.
Bitcoin's very first halving event was in November 2012 and it took ~365 days to reach the market cycle top followed by ~516 days to hit the market cycle bottom.
It's interesting that starting with the second halving event in July 2016 the fractal reversed in that it now took Bitcoin ~518 days to reach it market cycle top followed by taking ~365 days to reach its market cycle bottom.
With this historical fractal in mind, I'm projecting that ~518 days after the upcoming halving in Apr 2024 we will see the Bitcoin price completing the Wave 3 count and marking the market cycle top at ~$79K. This top aligns with Steve's 5.3 theory and would also align with the white median line on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it maintains its current trajectory. Now from this top, I'm projecting that Bitcoin will complete the Wave 4 count ~365 days after hence marking the market cycle bottom at ~$31K. This bottom aligns with the upper green band on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it continues its current trajectory and is also critical support.
Also with this fractal, I'm projecting that ~518 days after the halving in April 2028 we will see the Bitcoin price completing the Wave 5 count and marking the market cycle top at ~149K. This top aligns with the lower red band on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it continues its current trajectory.
Happy trading!
8 month accumulation of a lifetime.This is a monthly chart of the BLX and I think it might be possible we will be this type of bear market, Long and grueling for most but the opportunity of a lifetime for others. I'm fairly certain our bottom has been hit and we'll go sideways for most of this year.
Lets see what happens.
None of this is financial advice.
BTC where should be the Bitcoin ATH based on previous cycles.On the chart, I marked 4 previous peaks, which have been matched to the current cycle and halving. This helps us know approximately when we should sell Bitcoin. In the drawing, we have 4 vertical lines symbolizing the peaks from previous years, namely 2021, 2019, and 2013. They are about from 350 days from the halving to 520 days after the halving. The red area is a high-risk zone for buying new coins, it is rather a place to exit investments and secure satisfactory profits. Holding altcoins for too long leads to losses. Bitcoin's fluctuations can reach -70% to -80%, so it's worth realizing profits, withdrawing the initial investment, and securing your position.
This chart will be corrected for time shift, depending on when BTC breaks the previous peak from 2021. The provided data serve as guidelines and do not constitute a perfect source for exiting BTC.
PL:
Na wykresie zaznaczyłem 4 poprzednie szczyty, zostały one dopasowane do obecnegu cyklu i halvingu. Dzięki temu wiemy kiedy mniej więcej powinniśmy sprzedać bitcoina. Na rysunku mamy 4 kreski pionowe symbolizujące szczyty z poprzednich lat tzn 2021, 2019 i 2013.
Są one około od 350 dni od halvingu do 520 dni po halvingu. Obszar czerwony jest obszarem wysokiego ryzyko kupowania nowych coinów, jest raczej miejscem wycofania się z inwestycji i wyciągnięcia zadowalających zysków.
Przetrzymania altów za długo prowadzi do straty. Wahania bitcoina potrafią wynosić -70%-80% więc warto zrealizować zyski, wyciągnąć wkład i zabezpieczyć swoją pozycję.
Wykres ten zostanie poprawiony o przesunięcie czasowe, zależne od tego kiedy btc przebije poprzedni szczyt z 2021 roku. Podane dane służą jako wskazówki i nie stanowią idealnego źródła wyjścia z BTC.
BTC when should it break the ATH based on 3 cycles (timing)I have marked on the chart when CRYPTOCAP:BTC broke its previous ATH from 3 cycles. This will help us determine where we are in the cycle, and whether to adjust our sale and in which direction. If there is no breakthrough of the ATH from the previous cycle this year, then we have a problem. I remind you that cyclicity is not statistically confirmed.
On the chart, you have 3 arrows with the year labeled. The arrows indicate the time Bitcoin needed after the halving to break the previous ATH.
The green vertical line represents the current halving.
PL:
na wykresie zaznaczyłem kiedy CRYPTOCAP:BTC przebil poprzednie ATH z 3 cykli. Pomoże to nam określi w którym miejscu jesteśmy cyklu, oraz czy przesunąć naszą sprzedaż i w jakim kierunku.
Jeśli nie będzie przebicia ath z poprzedniego cyklu w tym roku, no to mamy kłopot.
Przypominam że cykliczność nie jest potwierdzona statystycznie.
Na wykresie macie 3 strzałki z podpisanym rokiem. Strzałki są czasem ile potrzebował bitcoin po halvingu do przebicia poprzedniego ATH. przetlumacz
Zielona pionowa linia oznacza obecny halving.
BTC possible targets 2024Previous 2 expansion periods BTC did: 18x during the 2015-2017 expansion and then a 4x during the 2018-2020
for the 2023-2024 expansion cycle a 2x puts BTC at 122k and a 3x at 177k
Using Gann Fans To Time The Parabolic Move To The TopUsing Gann fans, admittedly in a way that they are not supposed to be used, it seems to give a reliable indication of when Bitcoin will begin the parabolic move to the top.
If you draw a Gann fan from the top to bottom of each cycle, you can see that whenever Bitcoin leaves the 8/1 line of the fan, it appears to start a parabolic move to new ATHs with very little downside. These 8/1 lines were a downward sloping 18 degree angle in both 2016 and 2020, and in 2023 it is a 13 degree angle.
The yellow line marks the halving. In 2016 Bitcoin found itself right at the 8/1 line on the halving. After a bit of a pullback, it began a parabolic move to the top.
2020 is a little less clear due to the black swan of covid, but it went above the 8/1, then came back down for a retest, then went on a parabolic move to ATH.
At this point in 2023, we are right in the middle of the 8/1 line (at 47k) and the 4/1 (at 32k). I think a push to 47k is probably more likely, but either way, I expect it to be near the 8/1 line at the halving, which would be around 44k.
Once it moves away from this line, I think a parabolic move with little to no downside will have began on the way to a new ATH.
This Gann fan, which you can get by drawing from the top of 2014 to the top of 2018, created several significant trendlines, which we have just come above, but remains to be seen if they will hold.
Similarly, you can get this Gann fan by drawing one between the 2018 and 2020 top, which also resulted in several significant trend lines.
The top of that channel is at about 51k, and the bottom is 37k. On a potential pullback, this would be a first area that I would look at of significant possible support.
Major Resistance
After rejecting off the L1 ( white line ) in the second week of January @48k my next target by default is the L2 ( red line ) @30k by the end of Q2 or beginning of Q3.
These support & resistance levels are calculated using my proprietary tool called LifeLines. Think of them as moving averages on steroids.
I doubt that this happens but in the case that we close the month of February above 48k then I will be waiting for a closure below again before entering another position. In other words I am very confident that we will see a greater pullback before continuing the greater trend to the upside.
Stop loss @49k
TheKing & Time- Everything is in graph and simple.
- Check Dates range.
- Check Fibo Channels.
- Check bubbles with colors ( green, yellow and red )
- More it will take time to get out from the bear market.
- More the final price will melt some faces.
- I don't know the future.
- I know how to draw magical trends.
- Most of the time stories repeat.
- If by any luck, BTC retraces again one more time near 20k, it's a pure gift.
Happy Tr4Ding !
