BLX, Bitcoin on the long termA view on BTC's cycles. Check the market cycles on a full bitcoin view.
BLX trade ideas
BTC Monthly RSI Tells the storyRSI has reset and the price is at previous bull run ATH. See how much more we can/will run? Patience....its almost time.
BTC TimetravelHere you can see the diferent time phases from bitcoin. If this time is not different, then we should see a run soon into the green phase.
5th Wave Extension can bring bitcoin to 250KTo show you how an 5th wave extension looks like we need to look back to the bullrun of 2015
Bitcoin started the move in 2015 with an impulsive move into wave 1
Then a sideways flat correction ABC into wave 2
This created the Base Channel, when the price breaks out of it, wave 3 has started
Once wave 3 ended we corrected and held support on the Base channel in wave 4
Afther that the extended wave 5 begins and we create a parabola
After the buying climax we retrace back to end the elliot wavecycle
Now we come back to present to see if we can have an 5th wave extension in this cycle
The confusion part is that this elliot wavecycle there are 2 halvings included
one halving right before the 3th wave and the second one will happen during the 5th wave were are now in
Bitcoin is almost at max supply, so in the future the halving will have less and less impact on the price
This viewed from a supply standpoint, not a psychology standpoint, that will remain i guess
This view also concludes that we are in lenghtening cycles, so the price moves are also spread out in time so there's a relative belief the returns are diminishing in a time-related view
Looking back to the chart i posted, some of the moves are already set in stone
The only variabel is where that 5th wave of the 5th wave will end
We are now in wave 2 correcting to find a higher low between 22k en 20k
Wave 3 wil end around previous All Time High to begin re-accumulation in wave 4 between 42k en 65k
This chart projects a extended 5th wave to up tot 250k, real moonboy targets
For the more realistic people, this charts show no extended wave 5
The only difference is the 5th wave in comparisson with the other chart
The theory is to reach peak euphoria when we pierce 100k en come back down to start the bearmarket
To end this analysis, it's difficult to look that far in the future but it gives you an good idea for what is to come, some things are likely to happen en some things are now to early to tell
Know where you are in the cycle, there is much time to go, have patience and let the trade come to you
1340 The Bitcoin ProphecyThis is about an authentic Bitcoin halving index.
We place the prices between the halving dates at a common starting point. But what makes this index more credible? I’ve seen many similar indexes, but none of them were properly constructed. Satoshi Nakamoto mined the genesis block on January 3, 2009. This date marks the beginning of the Bitcoin network. Everything we know today as cryptocurrency started from here. There was no exchange rate at that time. The first known exchange rate came 591 days later, on July 18, 2020. So, if we want to correctly represent the halving cycles on the chart, we need to shift this first cycle by 591 days from the other halvings brought to a common point. It can be observed that the Bitcoin price drops ~1340 days after each halving, including the genesis block.
Analysis: You can find the previous analysis at the following link:
I published the above-referenced analysis on March 23, 2021. After that, all we needed was patience. Then, on May 1, 2023, I posted the following text in the Crypto Bitcoin Hungary Facebook group: “Analysis for skeptics: On January 11, 2024 ± 2 days —> BTC collapses, and so do the ALTs.”
Initially, the following comments arrived, I quote a few:
- I see the May Day celebration went well!
- I only believe in Alarik because he is a real time traveler
-I think Biden will either die or not. Now, top that!!!
- At least it’s comforting that not everyone in foreign groups believes they are Nostradamus
- Are you some kind of prophet?
Then, as January 11 approached, the comments changed:
- Predict more for us, Master!
- I caught the peak!
- You were right
- I’ve been following this post for a long time, now I want to be one of the first to congratulate you You can seal it now, it came true. With ARK/SEC setting such a date for the ETF (conspiracy theories, anyone? ) one way or another, but I think you’ll be right. If they accept it, then either a) after one last “ETF pump” comes the increasingly due correction, or b) immediately on the “buy the rumor sell the news” basis, but you’ll be right. If they don’t accept it, probably after such a pump there will also be a significant FUD-based correction, so… you’ll be right. There’s not really a losing outcome. In any case, you seriously made me wonder whether coincidences exist, or ARK and SEC deliberately set the deadline for this day
The continuation of the analysis: Actually, since the exchange rate perfectly brought the expected fall, everyone is curious about the next date: a bigger fall is expected around December 15, 2027 . This date fits well into the almost traditional series of end-of-year seasonal rises, which is usually followed by a fall.
(enough) May Satoshi be with you!
The-Line, Bitcoin prophet
Bitcoin Market State - February 2024Current highest probability scenario for BTC. In this sequence I believe that Bitcoin is more likely to push for a liquidity sweep above the ATH till September, before plunging to the 5k-8k target (currently estimated to be reached in 2025)
In general, this is not a bull market move, but a higher order corrective structure. As before, I continue to anticipate altcoins to pop off during the bullish sequence.
Crazy analysis and forecast for bitcoin Bitcoin Chart in my expectation:
- The pattern of cup and handle:
The cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern often seen in price charts. It consists of a rounded bottom (the cup) followed by a smaller consolidation period (the handle) before a breakout to the upside. The target for the cup and handle pattern is typically measured by adding the depth of the cup to the breakout point of the handle.
the 1st round target is 135000 satoshi
the 2nd round target for the main coup is 265000 satoshi
- Magenta color 5 waves:
it shows that the prices are moving in 5 wave elliott waves.
Elliott Wave Theory is a method of technical analysis that attempts to predict future price movements by identifying repeating patterns in market data. According to this theory, markets move in waves, both upward and downward, in a series of five waves. These waves are further categorized into motive waves (1, 3, and 5) and corrective waves (2 and 4).
The final target for the wave is 135000 satoshi and it matching the 1st round of the main shape formed coup and handle targets for the handle part.
- Blue color 3 Correction waves ABC:
The ABC correction pattern is a fundamental aspect of Elliott Wave Theory and can be found in various time frames and across different financial markets. Traders often use these corrective waves to anticipate potential entry points or to confirm the overall direction of the market trend.
1- Wave A: This is the first wave in the correction sequence and represents the initial move against the trend. In an uptrend, Wave A is a downward move, while in a downtrend, it's an upward move.
2- Wave B: Following Wave A, there is a partial retracement, labeled as Wave B. Wave B typically retraces a portion of the preceding Wave A but does not surpass its starting point.
3- Wave C: Wave C is the final wave in the correction sequence and typically represents the strongest move against the trend. In an uptrend, Wave C is a downward move, often extending beyond the starting point of Wave A. In a downtrend, Wave C is an upward move, again potentially exceeding the starting point of Wave A.
- Main trend in yellow will be the final correction of the blue wave
- Red color 3 Correction waves ABC:
the prices will drop down for the correction area between 27000 to 32000 satoshi and it is the start for the end of this wave by final lvls in between 218000 to 265000 satoshi.
the final red wave target is matching the 2nd round target for the main cup and handle shape 265000.
this will take years to achieve and i am writing this analysis on 5-5-2024.
Thanks for reading and remember these words if we will achieve them
best regards
The monthly on btcusd.The price confirms that it has reversed the bear market of 2022. We already knew this thanks to the analyzes of the lower time frames. With the engulfing bear not yet confirmed, the price draws a new price structure above the previous ath on a monthly timeframe, I know this is something we have already seen, but now we have the full picture and it is not something to be underestimated after we have seen on What resistance levels there was the first significant profit taking. Btc could catch its breath a bit before starting to run again, because with this confirmation which sees the sequence of highs and lows rising and the number of monthly sessions greater than the previous bear, it is only a matter of time, the price will take the direction of the rise and it will do so forcefully, when we cannot know, we have the long-term trend on our side, this would be enough even if we cannot predict the future.
BTC Movement longtermSee my TA on BTC for the next few months. Nice opportunities coming if you trade correctly.
BTC bias over timeI wanted to quickly highlight my biases over time for BTC.
It does seem like I cannot accurately predict the tops and am pretty much a permabull. However recently I have gotten better at predicting local tops. I was bearish at 70k, but held onto my bullish bias because I was long from 38-44k and thought price would revert back to bullishness much earlier than at 56k levels. I was wrong. I do want to say that just because I am bearish doesn't mean I will sell everything. In a bull market, I typically like to hold onto my positions with a death grip and sell only after I believe we have hit the top for this cycle. That is in part why I did not sell 70k and remained bullish despite the tape being bearish.
I am also much better as a forecaster than I was in 2017-2021. If I was sent back in time with no memories of price action but the skills I have today, I would have 100% sold the 2021 top. I may have held through the initial 60k -30k top though.
Similar to 2016 dipbased on uptrend length since 2022 bottom we are at a point comparable to the 2016 dip coming out of the 2015 bottom.
Price might wick to 50k and bounce back to 60k fast so I would bid around 51 now.
With BTC Close To All-Time-High, Here's The Bull and Bear of ItHey Tradingview. As my posts have really become sparse, I tend to only write when something pretty significant occurs. Right now, Bitcoin has made it all the way from $15.5k, back up close to its all-time-high from 2021. That's a pretty substantial feat. What it proves is that if a thing exists that can make money, people will buy it.
Even if I write a ridiculously bearish doom post, I usually provide the bullish alternative. You can see this in my last major Bitcoin post:
Even when I was mostly bearish throughout 2022 and 2023, I've made some long posts here and there, detailing why price could go against my bias.
In this post, I put the short label because I'd rather be right if it drops heavily than if it goes up a lot more. That's just an ego thing.
Clearly, against my expectations, Bitcoin ETF's have been successful, and have ushered in what appears to be a major bullish impulse. As I've stated, I don't think that means anything encouraging about society. But, what's good for society and culture is not necessarily what makes money. That's something one learns pretty early on in adulthood. Anyway, you can read up on my bearish fundamental stance on Bitcoin on my page. As I was once fundamentally bullish on the asset, you can even watch as my opinion shifted over time. This page is really an interesting place.
Anyway, here's the bull and bear of it right now.
On the bull side, volume looks decent in spot markets. Price has managed to reclaim a very important long term trendline lose in 2022, as shown on the chart above. Price also appears to have gone parabolic, meaning it has not tested any major daily moving averages in some time, as price appears to go up in an almost straight line. This kind of price action can keep going much longer than short sellers are prepared for. It can also end in mere minutes, punishing top longs.
Looking at the shorter-term chart, Bitcoin fell out of its last bullish channel, but that didn't seem to matter at all. Price keeps pushing higher, bull flag after bull flag.
Here's the bear of it:
Bitcoin active addresses continue to stagnate near 2017 high levels. studio.glassnode.com
That's weird, right? You'd expect with countries "adopting" it and with new ETFs there would at least be some meaningful increase. Bitcoin is being stored by a few wealthy entities and individuals. It is very unlikely to end up in the hands of the everyday person. Again, this is one of the primary reasons I am against Bitcoin. My opinion on that is unlikely to change, regardless of price. I simply don't think Michael Saylor, for instance, is going to get out of his assymetric bet unscathed.
Additionally, open interest (primarily long interest) is extremely high. In fact, it's really on par with price, which is something that happened in 2022. This may not matter so much with ETFs on the market, but it could at least cause some volatility as traders need to be knocked out of their positions.
Looking at the shorter term chart, it seems bulls might want to be careful here. There are a lot of sellers in this range, which is not surprising at all. What also wouldn't be surprising is a touch of the all-time-high, at $69k. My guess is a LOT of traders are ready for a tap on that number, and that it's not going to be that easy. It does really look like another bull flag, but volume tells me that the likelihood of a fakeout to new highs is fairly high.
I'm still in a low-risk short, but stopped adding at $52k. I may close it out at the start of next week - I do think the likelihood of at least a quick flush towards weekly MA support exists. But who knows? Regardless - position size is important here. There's no leverage for me. I'm not going to be completely rekt if price keeps going up. BUT I would like to minimize further losses, and I don't want to be trapped in this position if Bitcoin goes to $90K or higher.
As always, this is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not as financial advice. Let's see what happens!
Thanks for reading.
-Victor Cobra
BTC Macro CyclesOverview of previous macro cycles. Repeatedly going from all time high to golden ratio 1.618 of previous cycle peak, and peaked around 2.272 in the new cycle. Now finding support at 1.618.
one, two, three... will the cross happen along with the halvingHi All
Been a long 2 years.
Can we have few more months for "stacking" before the substantial move upwards?
What do you think?
Thnx
jad
PI-Cycle-Top-Indicator And 2YMA Is All I NeedI Will Sell When BTC Touches 2YMA (Black Lines) And The PI-Cycle-Indicator Marks The Cycle-Top. Pi-Cycle-Top Will Trigger When The Red Line Crosses The Blue Blue. Is It That Simple? Why Not?
BTCUSD shortterm: cloudy but calm, with chance of meatballs.Disclaimer: It's been really hard to count the waves since the start of 2023, not helped by erratic political and geopolitical movements.
These counts are based on super-basic Elliot Wave rules:
- 5 wave movements (3 impulses, 2 correctives)
- Wave 2 is never a triangle, often retraces 61.8%
- Wave 3 is never the shortest, often the longest
- Wave 4 is opp in nature of Wave 2 (impulse vs triangle)
- Wave 5 tend to see hidden divergences
The tension that I have with these counts is that I have not yet seen a 'proper' macro 2nd wave retracement of 61.8%.
While it is customary with Elliot Wave counts, however, it is not always necessary, even if I opine for it.
Could we go straight to $100k or $200k from here? Perhaps.
Of course, the probability is always there (with crypto you never know~), cautious optimism dictates that we need a breather ever since we rallied through 2023, from 2022's bear market.
While the price has been sideways for 1.x months, it plays out as a bullish pennant, a sign of accumulation.
And there isn't a clear indication of a bearish divergence either.
Heck, it's not even oversold (RSI) territories yet.
So I'm inclined to see a few more rallies before market sentiment truly shifts to doom and gloom.
Again, cautious optimism, because there are still curveballs on the horizon -- a meaty concoction of geopolitical tensions with US politics and financial policies to fully iron out.
We could just be approaching the calm before the storm.
BTC The bull marketHello, everyone!
Lately, the crypto world has been buzzing with events, and you've probably heard about the latest news from dozens of Telegram channels. Against this backdrop, I've decided to refresh my idea regarding cycles based on the Bitcoin halving principle.
In my opinion, we've completed the distribution phase and are entering a new phase that everyone has been eagerly awaiting - the bull market phase. I'd like to delve deeper into this phase.
The bull market phase is the time when cryptocurrencies show the most significant growth, including Bitcoin itself. According to statistics, this phase lasts on average from 350 to 500 days. Based on my calculations, we can expect this phase to conclude around the end of 2025.
Therefore, with this timeframe in mind, we have a great opportunity to make the most of this period. Let's forget about shorting and focus on maximizing our portfolios. It's also worth remembering that various corrections are possible during this period, so even if the price reaches $40,000, it's wise to continue working towards long positions and consider different opportunities to increase our assets.
I look forward to hearing your thoughts and discussions on this new market phase and the opportunities it presents.
BitcoinAn argument for continued consolidation to liquidate longs and shorts. Confusion of sentiment is how banks win. Blackrock is the bully for now
Bitcoin distance from BMS 👀 #Bitcoin distance from Bull Market Support Band
As I said all last month, the mark of 74k was our local peak, you can even tell a mid-cycle peak.
📝The geopolitical upheaval was just the last drop of what was supposed to happen. Taking into account the other earlier mentioned facts soon, I do not expect new maximums to be taken, I think it will happen in a few months.
💡Against this background, there are now quite a lot of good opportunities with altcoins, many projects we just recorded tenfold profits and now there will be an opportunity again to get new projects that are currently attractive for investment in the green zone.🚀
BTC: $100K and Then What?Considering Bitcoin's macro wavemap, there's a very unlikely chance that it is in a true impulsive wave. Manual wave analysis and the speed of its advancement in price action compliment each other as indicators of an big, upside, corrective wave being in motion.
Similar to the time I suggested that Luna would drop from $80 to $1, Bitcoin now sits in a variation of the same wave form.
Posting this idea just to document my expectations of a return to $5 in the years between 2025 and 2030. Fib and form suggest that this target will be realized in due time.
Possible Bitcoin Tops(45% probability) Bitcoin is following a path of slowly decreasing volatility which leads me to believe a top around 66,000 is likely (RED).
(45% probabiity) However, the market environment is very bullish and that is also adding to bullishness in bitcoin (e.g. Musk/Tesla buying bitcoin) this leads me to also accept the possibility that a more bullish target around 100,000 is also possible which would lead it just below that long term trend line it also failed at once already.
(10% probability) Now... Lets say things get little more extreme. The government has been implementing record breaking stimulus right as the economy is finally starting to open up. This is leading to massive supply shortages and excess money supply as everyone is trying to ramp back up at the same time with tons of money on the books. Bitcoin still has a relatively small market cap at about a half of apple and a tenth of golds MC. In this environment 400,000-600,000 would be my most bullish target as that aligns with the past movements in bitcoins past which ranged around 2000% to 3000% above the previous all time highs,
harmonizing fundamental analysis and technical analysis By harmonizing the waves of market psychology with the fundamentals of economic reality,we can unlock the rhythm of the market.. riding the waves of opportunity while navigating the currents of uncertainty... so elliot gives u insight into market psychology in a booming market and deep understanding of economic realities keeps u well grounded. harmonizing both of these can make u exceptional trader with excellent win : loss , profit :risk and sharpeys ratio.
always rwemember this trading idea is never really a chart based idea... the idea u generate for trade starts from worldview > sectoral view > security analysis (stock analysis) > chart.
so chart is only for execution of the generated idea. its not really a tool for trading idea generation. Most makes this mistake and lose the money.
or in better words executing a fundamental idea on chart using an adjusted technical personalized wave method.
Please remove spaces to see charts and see effectiveness of it.
https:// www. tradingview. com/x/dzZHgmoc/
https:// www .tradingview. com/x/AVyakcD1/
https:// www. tradingview. com/x/wQydBzIZ/
https:// www. tradingview. com/x/NO0hNFbX/
https:// ibb .co/9bYQYyr link of a chart image hosted online
Bitcoin RoadMap 2024/2025The thesis I will present today will go over the idea that Bitcoin will repeat its first cycle over a longer length of time. There are a lot of theories on where Bitcoin is going next, and it's been interesting seeing so many different perspectives.
Every 4 years, Bitcoin follows through with its cycle, and we are now in the 4th cycle. So, what if it repeats the first cycle?
The first cycle is a interesting one , we had two tops, one big move followed by a 75% correction and after 231days we put in a higher high.
Last cycle nearly every single logarithmic model I was using broke expect the one you see in the main chart above, I know every model breaks eventually but until then we will base are projections around it.
The fact is there is not much room left from here , if Bitcoin repeats the same move and time then we looking at July at around 113k for a major 2024 top , for over 500 days now Bitcoin has been moving 100% every 120-140 days with the last move only taking 50days.
What is interesting is it took 1200days from Pi cycle cross to cross , if it repeats the next cross is in July and a my projected cross which will most likely not be very accurate since moving averages will move a lot depending on price but late October 2024 would be the cross.
Monthly RSI is the lowest its ever been in history coming back into all time high.
2Week RSI putting in nearly perfect lower highs since the start.
Bitcoin all time high consolidation pattern looking like it did last cycle in 2020 when it was back at 20k.
Looking over at my time cycles , it takes 1400days from cycle top to top this would put a cycle high in September 2025 from November 2021. It also lines up with my time fib in September 2025.
Elliott wave indicator is flashing a wave 5 both of NAS100 and Bitcoin , as you can see by going back in time its not 100% perfect and calling the top but pretty close most of the time , as you can see last cycle it was off by 3 weekly candles.
We are making lower highs on the Weekly and higher highs in price so bearish divergence could be forming here.
stochastic RSI pointing down and MACD histogram printing two lighter colours but as you can see stochastic last bullrun we were going down the entire time Bitcoin was going up.
Conclusion
There are some warning signs but there weak compared to the bullish signs , candle structure is still making lower highs from 4hour upwards and we forming same pattern as we did last cycle before massive run.
This is how I think it plays out , last phase of the first run is coming until end of July then massive correction into end of year and continuation of the bull run till cycle top September 2025.
