BLX trade ideas
Bitcoins Peculiar Elliot Waves! If this accurate, Bitcoin might have one of the peculiar Elliot waves cycles.
The cycles so far as we can see have been clearly lengthening, but will it continue? What I am proposing here goes against that narrative but is within cycle parameters and structure as shown with the labeled length in bars .
We are on the monthly chart here so every bar is one month.
This is not a prediction of any sort but a wave analysis and what would be fairly surprising for a lot of people yet not derailing and still falling within past cycles.
Looking at this, I really think this would catch a lot of people of guard at cycles end while correcting and preparing for the next wave most likely entering 2030. The correction would be devastating and destroy all belief in the asset. It would most likely obliterate most altcoins, only the truly good projects would survive.
Let me know what you think down below.
This is no means investment advice and should not be taken as such.
Remember, we the people are Satoshi!!
Thank you
WeAreSat0shi
Will Bitcoin ever break above it's old trend line? #2 Hey fellow traders and Bitcoin enthusiast,
A month a go I made chart labeled "will bitcoin ever break above it's old trend line?' It was met with overwhelming response from the community as it was my most popularity chart. The charts focus was a look into the indicator "BTC Log Rainbow" coded by BullRider802. I wanted to look even deeper into this chart and indicator and see if there is any confluence to it with any other indicator.... Well I have found one.
"HTF Log Curves Oscillator" coded by quantadelic is the one on the bottom and it's showing the same exact thing. So we have to different Indicators coded by two different coders literally telling us the same thing! As we can clearly see the HTF was in a clear trading channel bitcoins entire existence and then show's a breach in 2020 as the other did, price action then shows a quick recovery to the eventual lack of hitting the top of the channel and the ultimate break though the bottom.
What does this mean? To me, first off, It means the math and coding used is sound. Both indicators separate from each other are reacting in the same way, and we might need to pay attention.
Why do we need to pay attention? The age old saying in investing is why, what was previous support is future resistance. These could very well show us the next bitcoin top and or bottom.
The one thing that is for sure is they are both either showing a slow down in bitcoins parabola or a consolidation period. That still remains to be seen.
Follow along with me and let's find out together.
I would like to thank everyone who has recently followed me, liked the chart and the Tradingview team for recognizing my work and helping this view get out. Once again the support and response has truly been overwhelming.
Thank you.
Please feel free to comment your thoughts or questions down below.
Remember, WeAreSat0shi
Stay blessed!
The case for a BOTTOM ... and a 200K BTC MaximumThis is the BLX, the index showing all of BTC's price action since its inception.
Outside of a singular event in 2010 BTC has never moved outside of the 'territory' between the upper and lower dotted curves.
And, in all its phases of BULL and BEAR markets, Bitcoin has always retraced to the .382 FIB level of its previous move from BOTTOM to TOP.
In the beginning not reaching the .382 but along the way bottoming nearer to the .382
And now, in 2022 we retraced to just below the .382
If Bitcoin will continue to move between the upper and lower curves, we can conclude that this IS the bottom.
But also, that Bitcoin will NEVER go beyond around 200K, this being the upper limit of the upper dotted curve, if we extend it into the future...
Hmmmm, what are your thoughts?
Bitcoin time analysis cycle based on machine learningBitcoin cycle Analysis this Should Happen in the Coming Years i will update it every week until the cycle in black color end good luck .
BTC : Stay Cautious I hope at least this week, candle close above 42000 to stay positive.
But seeing the candles + overall mood looks like it's difficult .
So I'd like to say "stay "CAUTIOUS" , coz anything can happen...
Nothing rise + bullish forever
.
Even fear meter = 10 it doesn't mean that you are already at bottom -
(Google for overlay chart fear and greed compared to the Bitcoin price)
But it means "Yes this is a good time to "start" to buy.... and may be keep "DCA"
since we never know where is "bottom".
.
This chart is bit closer look of previous version.
I bet someone 5 THB for this to happen.. so don't take it seriously
Things may not turn into the worst scenario.
Whether it's up or down, With a good investing plan,
risk & money management . will always make you survive !
.
Feel free to feedback/comment
Thx
.
Mil
Bitcoin and what to look for.A break and close above the top line has a good chance to lead to parabolic rally to 150k. A break and close of the bottom line (Specifically bellow 29k) could lead to a a 19k to 14k correction.
As of right now Bitcoin the macd turning up and we are waiting for a cross up on it to make it official.
The Stochastic has a buy signal with momentum up.
On the RSI we have a very interesting hidden bullish divergence that has formed. This signal carries to the two week and the monthly as well.
You now where to buy and where to sell. This is not financial advice.
Bitcoioncumulation zone
high volume and support
its good time to BUY for long term
if the price will go above MA100 keep position until fall down again below (in few months time)
Bitcoin - a story of diminishing returns and reduced volatilityConverging Log Growth Curves and decreasing amplitude of Bollinger Band Widths over the cyclical lifetime of Bitcoin indicate a story of diminishing returns and reduced volatility as a nascent currency matures
Bitcoin Scheme XXII Interference pattern
Added fib channel from top of 5th wave tuned to the fractal which completes perception of 2 different points.
Bitcoin PnF ChartI think this chart goes some way to explain the bearish sentiment in some quarters, but if we are on a "Bull Run" it is also not hard to expect $48/48.5K as a realistic target in the near term!
*PnF = Point and Figure
school.stockcharts.com
BTC at $185k in Sept 2023Is a MELT UP bull run in the cards for the near future?
I believe it's very possible!
Then MEGA 2.5 years crash.
Bitcoin to $235,000Price projection based mainly on two indicators: Pi Cycle Hi Low and LMACD, 10 day chart. The peak of the next top is predicted by the value of the LMACD when it reaches the downtrend resistance line, and the percentage gain off of the lows price will have reached based on previous bull cycle percentage changes when LMACD is at that value. Timing is indicated by Pi Cycle and it looks like this blow off could happen quickly!
Bitcoin and Elliot playing in the waves of time!This chart by no means is a price prediction. It's a look into a possible future for bitcoin in the coming years based on Elliot wave theory. In this chart I am are assuming that Bitcoins next move is the start of wave 5 in Elliot wave theory. When ever it ends the theory states that a massive ABC correction will follow, which would kill the mania and be bitcoins first true BIG bear market. This correction ( crash ) would not only be devastating by price but also by time, as it would most likely last multiple years and be the longest bear market to date. It would physiologically kill the market, and it's this this bear market that would likely kill all the shit coins and show which projects will last for years to come. It's only a devastating crash like that would cleans the market of scams, that would then catapult all the survivors to the next level in the eventual impulse wave 3!
Time frame
My time frame for this to start is 2026 to 2029. It all depends on how long it takes for the first impulse wave of wave 5 takes.
How long will the bear market crash last?
The question that everyone would answered is the one question that no one can answer. It could be that some or most people might not see new highs for the rest of their natural lives... So 10 to 30 years... But I would say most likely 10 to 15 years would be in the cards.
What about adoption?
I believe that in this bear market is when the true adoption and the realization of the use and necessity of Bitcoin/blockchain/defi to the masses. This is where Bitcoin gains critical mass in my opinion, but it will take a long time. This is all hypothetical of course providing we haven't lost technology through war or any other interruptions.
This is my outlook for the next decade or so, but I might be getting ahead of my self.
Let me know what you think in the comment section down below.
Thanks for looking
*The only certainty is, that there is no certainty *
A possible Bearish Bitcoin ScenarioThis is my bearish scenario for Bitcoin in the short to medium term (Long-term, I remain bullish ).
In my opinion, it looks like BTC has been forming a descending triangle since the June 18th low.
Even though it looks as though BTC has broken out to the upside, I believe there is a possibility that this could be a false breakout.
If this is a false breakout and the price of BTC falls back into the triangle and breaks below support, I believe the price will eventually bottom down near $12k.
Although I believe this is possible, I would put the probability of it happening at 30% to 40%.
With all of the macroeconomic turmoil we have been seeing lately, Bitcoin has actually held up pretty well.
But my belief is that we have not seen the worst of it yet. I feel there is a chance that the stock market has not yet bottomed, and we could see another leg lower.
If this is true, it most likely would pull BTC down with it.
As I said, I remain bullish long-term but don't expect the next bull market to begin until sometime in 2024.
short btc down to 1000this looks like when compared to the bvol indicator that we could see a rejection off the parralell channel and drop like a stone to 10k over the next few months shrting all the way
Very long term BTC viewAfter this crash, we can finally admit that the 4 year cycle theory is still valid !
The lengthening cycle theory was actually bullshit.
Diminishing return and diminishing losses are also playing out pretty well.
I'm going to save this chart for future reference,
let me know what you think !
PS: obviously I think the bottom is already in now !
Long Term Trend Analysis With Pivot PointsJust doodling. Trying to work out wen bear market is over and where moon is.
Vertical purple dots = halving
$170,000 in 2025? Moar adjusted with inflation?
BTC RoadmapNow we have the 200 EMA on the 2 weeks' time frame companied with the lower support line of the channel that make very strong support level, and with the current world economic circumstances the movement to upside will be very slow.
We have to touch the heavy resistance of the 20 EMA and 50 EMA first then will back test the 200 EMA again then break the 50 EMA at 30k and holding there for a while upto 50k.
The real movement will start with the beginning of March 2024 which will start our bull market and this will take around 550 days to reach the target between 320-440k at first of september 2025.
Let's hope this will go like the above scenario without any upcoming world war :D :D
BTCUSD Fibonacci Time zonesI have drawn a Fibonacci time zone for each cycle from the top to the point the bottom is reached. After this, the Fibonacci sequence begins to count.
I am starting at the top of 2011 to the bottom at the end of 2011, and these time zones count in vertical black lines.
After this, I drew another Fibonacci time zone from the top of 2014 to the bottom in 2015, and here again, a new count starts and is visible in dashed lines.
Finally, from the top of 2017 to the bottom of 2018, I once again drew a Fibonacci timezone, which is visible in the dotted line. Based on the Elliot Wave principle, in which waves 1, 5, 21, and 89 are cycle peaks, and waves 2, 8, 34, and 144 are complete market cycles.
When I apply this principle to the drawn fib time zone tool described above, I conclude that it gives pretty accurate insight into when possible tops and bottoms are set; each number of each illustrated fib tool is in a different subdivision and grade.
For example, the 3 indicates when the price will reach an all-time high for the first time after a bear market; I marked this in orange.
Red indicates a top of a bull market, and ditto for 13 and 21.
Number 8 shows the bottom of the bear market.
We are again at point 8, where a bottom would be set. In my view, Bitcoin is getting ready for another first impulsive wave of a new trend.
In my Elliott Wave count, in 2019 to 14k wave 1, ABC correction with wave C completed in March 2020. This was followed by an impulsive wave 3 ending in early 2021 and then a truncated fifth in November 2021.
Bitcoin's Probable Wavemap: $113K to $5KWhile Bitcoin's fate is unwritten, considering its historical, all-time price action there are certain signals that we should be able to gather, based solely on its continuous price action. Over the last few months, the wave count for BTC has been a bit muddy at best but should we be where I think we are, the Digital King will be soon on its way towards a new all-time high precisely in the range of $113K (based on BTC's all-inclusive wavemapping).
Though this hypothetical pending pump will be euphoric for many of us retail traders, from where I sit, the unorthodox ATH will amount to nothing more than a sucker's rally. The days of enormous Bitcoin growth are on ice until the current corrective phase finishes. Bitcoin enthusiasts across the world are happy that the downward-swing is signaling the end of the #CryptoWinter. I definitely look forward to the #CryptoSpring as well, but I am not very optimistic that that the mid-term (3-5 years) forecast will result in the bulls favor!
We could see seasonal swings of winter > spring > fall ...
#CryptoWinter = 2021-2022
#CryptoSpring = 2022-2024
#CryptoFall = 2024-2027?
Traders that have numbly relied on the Halvening to be the catalyst for Bitcoin's new growth cycle will likely be in for a rude awakening during the #CryptoFall. If/when Bitcoin Bulls are unable to maintain its current 5 year trend line, its heavy RSI divergence (since February 2021) should/could force a deep, healthy correction. Before Bitcoin is able to achieve more high-rate growth, it must first withstand a very probable, mind-blowing 93% correction from the likely ranges of $113K to $5K.
