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The Start of a RunCrypto has become mellow. Blowoff tops and massive V-shaped recoveries are not common anymore. Cycles are also much more tightly coupled with stonks since hedge funds and banks have crypto desks with quants smoothing out the market. You could say Bitcoin is whipped now. I decided to mark a breakdown from here to the low 20ks range because that's the most realistic things to expect. It may not be a full breakdown over the next week, but the reality is that further upside just doesn't fit the market structure. Charts tell a story and a pump does not follow. I believe that marking some support levels over the rest of the year is, in fact, the better alternative that assume BTC won't go to zero or stagnate. That would be a story told by dropping under 17k. Let's not forget that our lives still suck. Inflation is not quite going away, and the job market hasn't recovered across society. The Russian-Ukrainian War is still not resolved. Even if the Fed has skipped tomorrow's, at least two more hikes are coming later on. QE needs to be reversed for this charade to continue. Overall, this is how I see the story playing out. Prices are not just levels. I'm not super confident about this narrative this time around, but nothing else fits better!
BNC:BLX
by ENTITY_NOT_FOUND
Potential for a Pull-back as it Correlates with DXYIf you've seen my other posts about this - Bitcoin has clear negative correlation with DXY. You could pull up the Correlation Coefficient indicator and make an argument that it correlates positively just as often as it does negatively, but when you compare the charts with each other, nearly every peak corresponds with a valley vs. the other and vice versa. They are typically offset by some period of time if not at the same time. Also, try setting CC length to 35 and it provides a more clear picture of its long-term correlation. Presently, Bitcoin looks like an inverse head and shoulders re-testing its neckline. Meanwhile, DXY looks like a head and shoulders with a pullback that hasn't quite reached the highs of its right shoulder. Also, each shoulder and head of both head and shoulders have eventually corresponded with each other, in opposite directions, and Bitcoin has yet to have made a pullback. However, it may skip the pullback altogether should DXY continue down and move back below ~98-101. Or, DXY could instead move up above ~105-106 leading to pattern failure on both, and a strong uptrend on DXY / strong downtrend on BTC. Let's see what happens next! Please see my related posts below in the links to related ideas. Thanks for reading!
BNC:BLX
by dudebruhwhoa
3
The panpanXBT Bitcoin risk IndicatorHi Fellow Traders and Investors, Today, I want to look into this brand new hot off the presses indicator, THE BITCOIN RISK. The focus of this indicator is the risk levels of bitcoin in real time. It's color coded and fairly straight forward and simple. it's best use is for long term investors not so much for day trading. It can be coupled with other indicators to make confluence and confirmation. for example the RSI and this indicator are very powerful when coupled together from what I have seen. As we can see it is still very early in the bull run and still a very good time to be making purchases. How accurate this indicator will be going forward? Unfortunately, only time will tell, as I'm fairly sure it's been retro fit in some way to work. I have no affiliation with the creator and have no personal gain. I found this indicator, was granted use of it and found it useful, so, I am passing it along. If you are interested in it, you have to get a hold of the creator. Down below is an overview in the words of the creator. Here is a quick explanation from the creator himself... Here's a quick overview of what the model is based on and how it can provide value: "The panpanXBT Bitcoin Risk Metric is powered by regressing 'fair value' data. The errors are adjusted to account for diminishing returns using a fitted exponential curve. The result is a channel that Bitcoin price has historically bounced between. Users can quickly identify periods of extreme under and overvaluation, which could present great investing opportunities."
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
3
BTC 2023 Price Analysis, a Sideways Outlook, Consistent PatternsBITCOIN BNC:BLX BINANCE:BTCUSDT Hello Traders, Based on historical trends, #BTC is expected to experience a sideways market in 2023. Patterns from previous halving years and bear market capitulation highlight consistent characteristics. Notably, end-of-year prices consistently double from the beginning-of-year levels. This suggests #BTC will likely hover around the 30k price level throughout 2023, despite potential fluctuations of 20k or 40k. Halving Year Preceding Period: One year before the halving event, BTC exhibits price stability, indicating a consistent level in 2023. Bear Market Capitulation: Bear market capitulation historically occurs in December, marking a significant low point before potential reversals or consolidation. Sideways Years: Years 2015, 2019, and 2023 demonstrate sideways price movement, lacking significant upward or downward momentum. Similarities and Patterns: Bounced from Electricity Cost Level: BTC tends to bounce from the electricity cost level, indicating price rebound near mining costs. End-of-Year Price Level Doubling: End-of-year prices consistently double the beginning-of-year levels, reflecting a recurring trend of price appreciation. #BTC is expected to have a sideways year in 2023, with stability around the 30k price level. Consistent patterns of bear market capitulation, sideways years, and doubling end-of-year prices support this outlook. Traders should anticipate fluctuations but expect BTC to end the year near 30k. At the time to charting this, #BITCOIN was trading 27124 will #BITCOIN make it or break it ? Lets see how Time and Price Action unfolds Patters, Always DYOR ✔️ Stay Focused, Calm and Composed, It is a journey that requires dedication and perseverance, managing emotions, and staying adaptable. Trade well my friends, Stay SAFU, and Let that Sink in 😉
BNC:BLX
by Jova-A
Bitcoin Halving AnalysisBitcoin Halving is the supply reduction event which occurs every 210,000 Blocks until all 21 Million coins are mined. At genesis, there were 50 Bitcoins minted each block. Each block takes 10 minutes hence it would take approximately 4 years to mine 210,000 blocks. First Halving occurred on November 28, 2012, at block height of 210,000. Afterward Block reward changed to 25 BTC. On this day the price was $12.24. On November 25, 2013 price reached $1177.19 which became the highest price point before the next halving. So this reflects a price change of 9120% for a period of one year. Second Halving occurred on July 9, 2016, at block height of 420,000. Afterward Block reward changed to 12.5 BTC. On this day the price was $649.22. On December 17, 2017 price reached $19,764.51 which became the highest price point before the next halving. So this reflects a price change of 2944% for a period of one and half years. Third Halving occurred on May 11, 2020, at block height of 630,000. Afterward Block reward changed to 6.25 BTC. On this day the price was $8580.84. On November 10, 2021 price reached $68,944.62 which became the highest price point before the next halving. So this reflects a price change of 702% for a period of one and half years Fourth Halving will occur in April or May, 2024, at block height of 840,000. Afterward Block reward will change to 3.125 BTC. If the current pattern continues, the next highest price point will occur in the 2025 4th Quarter.
BNC:BLXLong
by cryptochi1986
Bitcoin's roadmap to $300,000 | 2023 to 2025Once the $40,000 ceiling is breached in Q4 2023, it will be a straight road to $100,000 within 6 to 10 months. The bitcoin halving of April 2024 will come and go. A major correction will only be after a top of $100K to $150K around mid-to late 2024. This will be followed by a mini-bear market / correction to the previous ATH of $60Ks. This correction won't last longer than a year, ending with a push into the high $200,000s or even touching $333,333.33 by the end of 2025. Disclaimer: Keep in mind that market predictions are about as reliable as a weather forecast in outer space. Use this analysis as a conversation starter, not as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, so do your homework and make informed decisions. Remember, no crystal balls here—just a pinch of insight and a dash of caution
BNC:BLXLong
by Sikbh
The secrete trend line no one will show you and the buy signalsJust a quick look here. Another trend line that the BTC price broke through with that big candle in March. BTC first broke through MA Pi bottom resistance kin January then held it as support. Look at when it happened... Literally right after it crossed!!! It is now playing with the top of WHITE trend line. I believe it will continue to do so for a period of time. This is a similar trend line BTC formed in 2015 of of it's lows back then. Pi Cycle bottom being held as support. BUY The MZ BTC Oscillator is dark green making confluence for the BUY. Steve's NVT HV. This one is 100% accurate. When the RED AND WHITE LINE (volatility) goes below the YELLOW line and comes back up and is RED a move is to follow in the upward direction. If it's WHITE then it will correct. The color before entering is insignificant to the confirmation signal. NVT coming up RED Confirms the BUY! There is a move brewing and it smells like a pump. Kind Regards WeAreSat0shi
BNC:BLXLong
by WeAreSat0shi
5
Elliot wave nearing 4/5Obviously the debt ceiling was going to be expanded since the Americans will not give up their "credibility" and the world reserve currency Expect weekly to close around $27.250 Wednesday - French, Italian, and German inflation YOY - Japanese Consumer confidence Thursday - Inflation and unemployment rate eurozone YOY - US ISM manufacturing PMI Friday - US Unemploymentrate and non-farm payrolls Looks reasonable to retest the former range when taking the Elliot Wave into account, $25.200 range top June 2022 – March 2023 has a lot of liquidity. However I am bullish from here Target for June would be approximately around $35
BNC:BLXLong
by SIWMIS
Fib levels confirm next Bitcoin cycle top in mid-2025Focusing on the Fib wedge here, it can be seen that each Fibonacci level has marked Bitcoin's top so far. 1. The zero point of the fib wedge is exactly where BLX price starts from at around $0.05 in 2010 2. The first fib level 0.236 marked the top around $30 in 2011 3. The second fib level 0.382 marked the top around $1100 in 2014 4. The third fib level 0.618 marked the top around $20,000 in 2017 5. The fourth fib level 0.786 marked the top around $66,000 in 2021 These are FIVE points of reference with pin-point accuracy. Not "by chance" or "coincidence". Therefore, it is only fair to assume that the 6th one, which also completes this fib wedge being the final level of 1.0 on the fib wedge, is going to mark the next cycle top as well. A highly conservative top would be around $150,000 while a more realistic target seems to be around $200,000 to $250,000 . On the other hand, a highly optimistic target is around $300,000. Also inferring from the chart an approximate time-point can be seen of mid-2025 for the next BTCUSD cycle top. A mid-cucle top of $120,000 to $150,000 in mid 2024 is also possible. The important thing to remember is fib level 1.0 around mid-2025. How the price gets there is anyone's guess. === Sidenote: The series of 5 side-by-side fib retracements each are set as follows: - 0 marks the top of each cycle - 1 is aligned with the bottom of the cycle immediately preceding it The resulting congruence among the retracements and their harmony with each other is astounding. === Disclaimer: Keep in mind that market predictions are about as reliable as a weather forecast in outer space. Use this analysis as a conversation starter, not as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, so do your homework and make informed decisions. Remember, no crystal balls here—just a pinch of insight and a dash of caution
BNC:BLXLong
by Sikbh
1
The history of the Flash Crashes in BTC, how to make money on itI'll start this post with what I've earned on the covid flash crash myself. This success was repeated in May 2021 but in other token. That's why I know a little about it. At the end I wrote why next flash crash is possible Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies often experience flash crashes when there are sharp and significant price declines for a short period of time. These events can be triggered by a variety of factors, including market panics, big selling, news, or regulatory changes. Here are a few known instances of flash crashes in bitcoin history : The flash crash On June 19, 2011, the price of bitcoin dropped from about $17.50 to just $0.01 on the low-volume Mt.Gox exchange. The reason for this flash crash was a huge sales order to sell 2,000 bitcoins at the market price. Flash Crash On April 10, 2013, the price of bitcoin plummeted from about $260 to $45 in a short period of time. This followed a series of crashes on the Mt.Gox exchange and a number of other factors that caused panic among traders. Flash crash On June 21, 2017, the price of bitcoin on some exchanges dropped from about $2,800 to $0.10 in just a few seconds. This was caused by a technical malfunction on the GDAX exchange that led to the execution of a bitcoin sell order at a low price. Flash Crash On September 17, 2019, the price of bitcoin on the Bitstamp exchange plummeted from about $10,000 to $8,100 in a short period of time. The reason for this flash crash was a large sale order for 5,000 bitcoins on the exchange. Flash crash in 2020: On March 12, 2020, the price of bitcoin dropped by about 50% in a few hours, falling from about $8,000 to $4,000. This flush crash was caused by market panic related to the global COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on financial markets. Flash crash in 2020: On May 10, 2020, the price of bitcoin dropped more than 10% in just a few minutes. This happened after bitcoin sales orders worth about $30 million were executed on the BitMEX exchange. Causes of Flash Crashes -Flash crashes, or sharp and brief drops in asset prices in financial markets, can be caused by a variety of reasons. Some of the main causes of flash crashes include: -Automated trading systems: The use of computer programs and algorithms to perform a large number of trades can lead to a situation where these systems start selling assets automatically in response to certain market conditions. This may lead to a spike in sales and a sharp drop in prices, resulting in a flash crash. - Market Liquidity: Lack of liquidity in the market, that is, the inability to quickly buy or sell assets without a significant change in their price, can contribute to the occurrence of flash crashes. When large numbers of investors are trying to sell assets at the same time and there are not enough buyers, prices may decline sharply. - Systemic Failures: Technical failures and errors in trading platforms or settlement systems may cause flash cracks. Incorrect orders or execution of trades, delays in transmitting information, or problems with transaction processing may create volatility in the market and provoke sharp drops in prices. - Market Emotions and Panic: Heightened nervousness, emotional reactions, and panic among investors can also contribute to flash crashes. If a significant number of investors start selling assets en masse due to fear and anxiety, it can cause a spike in sales and a sharp drop in prices. What were some inefficiencies in the market that could be exploited in the financial markets There are several instances in the financial markets where inefficiencies could be detected and exploited for profit. Some of these cases include: -Arbitrage between different markets: If assets are traded on different markets or exchanges at different prices, one could buy an asset at a lower price in one market and sell it at a higher price in another market, profiting from the difference in prices. This is known as arbitrage. -Mispricing Companies: Sometimes investors may mispriced companies' stocks, creating opportunities to buy undervalued stocks or sell overvalued stocks. Such valuation mismatches can create opportunities for profits. -Temporary Price Mismatches: Sometimes there are temporary asset price mismatches in financial markets caused by panic, emotion or unforeseen events. If an investor is able to identify such mismatches and take appropriate action, he or she may profit from their correction. Explore the last point Temporary price mismatches in financial markets occur when asset prices deviate from their fundamental value for a short period of time. This can be caused by various factors such as panic, traders' emotional reactions, unexpected news or errors in trading algorithms. Temporary price mismatches present opportunities for traders or investors to capitalize on the difference between the current price and the fundamental value of an asset. Some examples of timing mismatches in prices include: Inefficiency of crypto exchanges: There can be differences in asset prices on different trading platforms, especially during volatile market conditions. Traders can exploit these differences to buy an asset at a lower price on one platform and sell it at a higher price on another platform, making arbitrage profits. Use of Algorithmic Trading: Algorithmic trading systems can cause timing mismatches in prices. For example, if an algorithmic system triggers a large number of sell orders in a short period of time, it may cause the price of an asset to go down. Traders may try to take advantage of such situations to profit by entering buy positions when prices decrease due to algorithmic selling. This is due to the fact that players who want to make money on Funding/Countdown and their ideal market is a flat and when the market moves, they simply leave the market and wait for a less volatile market. This is why there is a liquidity crisis on some exchanges and there is a price overshoot. All signs of a flash crash, signaling as much as I can: 1.The exchanges also believed in the latest surge in trading volumes and are now going full steam ahead. 2.The crowd is sitting in coinlist and seals with potential profits. 3.The crowd is playing or holding memcoins. 4.Crowd sits in altcoins, which is "still cheap" and already near December lowes 5.No new steibles are released - no one from the outside is interested in crypto, those who wanted have already bought it 6. Bankfallls 7.FEDnow release 8.The subcycle in the global cycle I mentioned in other posts That's why I recommend to register at different exchanges, to study and test different trading terminals Best regards EXCAVO
BNC:BLXShort
by EXCAVO
23
AW Bitcoin Analysis - Head And Shoulders Above The Rest...In this video, we build upon the previous Bitcoin post, diving deeper into the count and potential correction unfolding. I share my thoughts on the possibilities of how the current wave could form, starting with an understanding of corrective pattern formation. Using the previous waves as a guide, we explore the general observed patterns, leveraging the concepts allowed by AriasWave. When dealing with variables, there is no preferred count. Instead, we focus on the factors afforded by the thought process driven by the methodology. In support of this idea, we discuss the $168 retracement, which aligns with a similar length measure down from the neckline. This analysis suggests that the price won't reach zero, as that outcome appears less likely. However, if the price approaches this level, it will indicate extreme market psychology driven by the prevailing narrative at that time. As always, it's important to remember that these predictions are not exact, but rather a form of envisioning made possible by understanding the concepts embedded within AriasWave. By exploring different scenarios and factors, we gain insights into potential outcomes and the psychological dynamics at play in the markets. Join me in this video as we delve into the intricacies of the current wave formation, examining the patterns and narrative shaping Bitcoin's journey. Through the lens of AriasWave, we gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics and the possibilities that lie ahead. Disclaimer: All predictions are subject to change as new information emerges, and individual analysis should be conducted alongside this discussion.
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
5
AW Bitcoin Analysis - Your Account Will Hold You Accountable...Join us on this video journey as we explore the significance of AriasWave in delivering the best wave analysis. By understanding the count for Bitcoin, we uncover the intriguing nature of corrections, which can be either lengthy or deep, showcasing the concept of alternation emphasized by Elliott. However, AriasWave takes wave analysis to new heights. Critics who hold a negative opinion of AriasWave analysis must recognize that they are potentially opposing the successful side of the trade. Our methodology is the result of eight years of meticulous backtesting, thoughtful analysis, and a comprehensive collection of all counts presented on this channel. The multitude of variations seen over the past two years is a testament to the preparation for AriasWave's entrance into the mainstream. Today, we stand at the pinnacle of our journey, armed with deep counts that shape the future of AriasWave methodology. The same clarity and depth I bring when speaking is mirrored in my analytical posts, contributing to the growth and success of AriasWave. Moving forward, our analysis will be based on the preferred counts before March 2023, marking the completion of extensive testing. This grants us a range of options to proceed, while ensuring that we consistently provide you with the real count based on AriasWave and our final determinations. Any count adjustments will be minimal, mostly occurring at small degrees. Join us as we navigate the fascinating world of wave analysis, driven by AriasWave's proven methodology and unwavering commitment to delivering accurate and insightful analyses.
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
1
BTC Possible highs lows - my independent thesis This is my BTC thesis using simple metrics - not taking into consideration the BTC halving event I have taken each BTC bull and bear cycles from start to finish to find an average bull and bear cycle beginning and end Also using a simple metric to guesstimate a 2 possible market highs for BTC this time around. I cannot add variables such as black swan events - or possible unforeseen / planned attacks to the BTC network These are my own thoughts only and should not be perceived as financial advice. please feel fee to critique
BNC:BLXLong
by YoShiva