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Cycle Roadmap for Bitcoin | Mendenmein Capital OCWhat a lovely Monday morning! In my years as an analyst, I really learned to enjoy Monday mornings, and I want to present you something special on this fabulous morning! In the past weeks I designed this new cycle model which should help investors understand the past cycles of bitcoin, how they function, and it allows me to make assumptions on how the future will play out. First, I want to point out that some counts may be confusing for traders who are used to logarithmic counts. As is stated in the past, I think that only focusing on logarithmic wave movements is foolish, because you always need to look at the waves from a “price” scale too. Remember how the famous “Stock to Flow” Model was partially wrong about the price goals of the last bull market, the praised rainbow chart needed to be redrawn because it FAILED and how famous investors Plan_Bitcoin was wrong about bitcoin hitting 100K this cycle? They all have something in common… They all focus solely on logarithmic scales and the more bitcoin extends on the price scale (not logarithmic!) the more these models will continue to fail! So, regarding the chart, I want to give you all some additional information. The last three Cycle Highs were labeled as “Cycle Top X” and the bottom of the bear markets were labeled as “Cycle Bottom X”. We were lucky to enjoy three separate cycles in bitcoin, however bitcoins history from mere cents to 20$ is not accounted for. In this time no halving occurred and the historic timeframe doesn’t allow me to conclude a whole cycle from it. The bull markets in all Cycles are summarized in two separate phases. The “Cycle Consolidation” (marked in orange) phase highlights the time when bitcoin finally bottomed out , but didn’t experienced the halving event yet. After the halving, the “Cycle Bullrun” starts in which bitcoin establishes a parabolic rally and finally tops at a certain point. The duration of these different phases are mostly the same in every cycle, but sometimes they go on longer or shorter than expected. The important thing for investors right now is, that we estimate that bitcoin found its final bottom at exactly the 22nd of November 2022. Since then, we gradually established higher high’s, therefore we expect that the orange phase of a “Price Consolidation” has started . We estimate that bitcoin will reach 35K or even 40k before the halving next year, currently this event is projected to happen on 24th of April 2024. The whole “Price Consolidation” is estimated to dominate the market for 518 days, and after that the “Cycle Bullrun” should account for 410 days. I remain very bullish on bitcoin’s future, and my price target range of at least 120’000$ to 180’000$ is still valid. However, we will have a long way to go until there, and bitcoin has a lot of work to do! Below can be seen our most recent Elliot wave count for bitcoin, currently we have reason to believe that the price is inside a wave (iii) which should push us above 35’000$ in the next weeks. I wrote many articles about this chart, so I won’t go into further detail here. If you should face problems with the scaling of this chart, the normal scaled chart can be seen below. Please note that we are already invested in Bitcoin since the 15th of June 2022, back then we announced our first positions here on tradingview. Long Bitcoin (BTCUSD) AVERAGE EXECUTION PRICE: 20’714.20$ STOP-LOSS: NONE LONGTERM TARET: +120’000$
BNC:BLXLong
by Mendenmein-Capital
Bitcoin price action (20W SMA/21W EMA support band)I’ve been playing around with my BLX chart to see if I can get all the useful information about BTC price action on one screen. This is all on the weekly timeframe. The green/red band you see is the 20W SMA/21W EMA support band. I know some people tend to focus on the 20W SMA exclusively however adding the 21W EMA gives a band that allows for those wicks down and it gives a little more psychological assurance (for me anyway). The yellow line is the 200W SMA. Notice the confluence in this last move between all three! The blue line at the bottom is BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) with a couple of dotted EMAS (21/100) to show whether Bitcoin is in a dominant streak or not. It is currently. This is why I’m not in alts yet. Anyway… stand back and let it hit you. I think it’s quite useful personally! Initial idea came from here:
BNC:BLX
by mikemindel
Unbelievable linear drop When wave 2 is about time wave 4 is about depth and vice versa, this is likely to happen Wave 2 corrected 38 percent of wave 1 and 50 percent of wave 3 is 370$, it is not my fault that this number is on the 0.5 level I got no road map and i just wait for development of waves, there is a long way to go ... I will be cautious about my indications when the price is on the 0.38 of the third wave The logic is simple but unbelievable If you know books about golden mean and elliot wave then introduce me Patience is virtue of kings
BNC:BLXLong
by UnknownUnicorn10828932
1
Andrews' Pitchforks are FunHere's an example of a pitchfork drawn on the 2 weekly BNC:BLX chart, measured from the March 2020 low to the Nov 2021 high and completed at the Nov 2022 low, and then extended in direction and levels (up to 9 levels can be added). The chart above makes for a solid example of how pitchforks can be used to derive a trend or channel and find solid support and resistance levels within it. They are also just fun to work with! There are several types of pitchforks which can be tested until you've found one that works best for your chart. They are called Andrews' Pitchforks because they were originally developed by Alan Andrews, with several derivatives created by modifying calculation for the placement of the pitchfork's handle (the slope of its median line): Normal Pitchfork - Andrews' original pitchfork tool. Schiff Pitchfork - moves start of the handle line halfway to the base of the channel. Modified Schiff Pitchfork - handle start is adjusted by a distance equal to half the difference between price values of its first two points (first low and high, or first high and low) of three. Inside Pitchfork - handle adjusted to half of the vertical & half of the horizontal distance between the first two points of three. In the example above, I chose a Modified Schiff Pitchfork , and then identified 3 points of consecutive highs and lows. In this case: low -> high -> low. You can choose to do the opposite of this and start from high -> low -> high, typically your first point should represent the beginning of a new trend. Play around with trying this in different timeframes, and also try editing / adding / removing levels. You can try basic levels at increments of 25% or by utilizing classic Fibonacci levels (or both, as shown above). Pitchforks are a type of Fibonacci tool, so I like using classic Fib levels. You could just use the Fibonacci Channel tool and get a similar result. But, the nice thing about utilizing a pitchfork is that it can help you identify a channel that may not be immediately obvious. Here is another example of using a Modified Schiff Pitchfork to derive trends on a popular altcoin, BINANCE:HBARUSD : Thanks for reading, I hope this was helpful to you. I learned more about pitchforks myself while working on this, and encourage others to do the same!
BNC:BLXEducation
by dudebruhwhoa
BTC Comparing Last Cycle with Current cycle.Everything has to come to and end, sometime. We have been bullish for god knows how long; weeks, months. Ever since the start of the year we've seen nothing but small dips and continued uptrend, the hated rally. Which brings out the question, how long can this continue? Currently, we're at the 7th month mark and we've erased majority of the down moves that have come about due to unfortunate FUD/ events. There is still 10 more months before the halving happens, meaning there's plenty of time for the price to go up and down and up and down. NB! for this chart we consider the FEB 2020 crash as a black swan event, that doesn't/won't affect the chart. The similarities of '18 and '21 are astounding, the respect for certain S/R levels are present. Bringing us to the dreaded question, can we use Last cycles moves to "predict" current cycles future moves. I'm not going to go in to too much detail, as the chart speaks for itself. Take note that every move has its own reasoning and is either exacerbated to the upside and/or the downside. E.g. The First top in 2021, was prime for a pullback for a continuation, but the effects of Covid exacerbated the dump and forced the market to enter a period of consolidation, before the next move up, which on it's own was also fueled by the strengthening of the economy pushing it to a new and a final high. To sum up: I don't think we are done yet with the pump on the High Time frame. and we are going to take out the previous high around the ~32.4k to trap late longers, people expecting the continuation of the bull to get some liquidity and then push downwards to create a macro low of 2023 and then we will set our eyes for the new bull cycle. Extras: 1. CRYPTOCAP:BTC and CRYPTOCAP:ETH markets are very illiquid and Alts even more so. Meaning while BTC might not make a new low, I expect many of the alts to do so. I am looking for a handful of ALTS ( UPCOM:FTM , CRYPTOCAP:SOL ,etc) have expectations new lows in 2023. At worst case scenario, I expect them to at the least test their previous low. 2. There is a possibility of Capitulation event to clear out all of the levered longs sub 22.5k. I do not know how deep the wick would go here, but I wouldn't put ~20k out of the question before we push upwards Always remember ( I certainly sometimes forget): The market is a place of PVP, for someone to make money, someone has to lose. This brings me to my last point. 3. ETF's, The large funds that are filing for their BTC ETF's are not stupid and they didn't make their money from blind luck (unlike most cryptobro funds that are now busted). Even after the approval of the ETF's the funds will make certain to not enter a directional risk and make certain they are Delta Neutral (buy spot, short perps), which on it's own should have little to no effect on the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price, the pump will come from everyone buying the news of the approval all the while Funds that just got approved will start opening new Shorts marking the local top. These funds need people to buy their product to make maximum gains.
BNC:BLX
by MashaH2
#Bitcoin - Which path will it take?I looked back at the past two bull cycles for Bitcoin and noticed that it took about 1096 days for price to breach the previous 2M closing cycle high, and then about 365 days from then to reach the next top. If it follows this same timing, then we would expect price to breach $70k sometime around November of 2024, and then make a new cycle top toward the end of 2025. If you were around during the last bull run, everyone kept talking about a Bitcoin ETF and how it was about to happen, which helped fuel the last bull run. But then it didn't, which could have been part of the reason why the last bull run fell short of may peoples expectations. If a spot ETF does get approved, I wouldn't be surprised to see it fuel a speculative bubble only to mark the top near the launch date. The timing also lines up with the average time it takes for an ETF to get approved which is 221 days. Blackrock filed on June 15, 2023 so adding 221 days puts us at January 22, 2024. We should find out shortly (over the next couple of weeks) whether Bitcoin price calms down, consolidates more around $30k, and takes the longer more gradual bull run path, but if we see it mark up to around FWB:36K soon, then I will assume it is taking the shorter path to a new top sometime end of 2023, early 2024. We will see!
BNC:BLX
by theeverythingbubble
#Bitcoin Roadmap 2023-2025Hello all, some very influential analysts saying that we will reach an all time high in 2023. Others saying we will see a massive dump to new lows under $15.5k. Who will be right? Time will tell. But looking back at previous bull runs we see something interesting... Bitcoin tends to run off the lows to the 2M closing price, in this case that is just over $61k, and then consolidate until after the halving, and then blows its top in a speculative bubble. I think that is what is likely to happen this time around as well. Run to $60k region getting everyone bullish, many will buy in with the hype, and then it dumps with a long correction/consolidation until it has refueled and is ready for the final blow of top. We will see I guess!
BNC:BLX
by theeverythingbubble
Crypto fear and greed & the bull market support!Hi fellow traders and investors. If your still on the fence about the market, I'm not sure why, but, I'm about to show we are in a full fledged bull market even if it doesn't feel so to you. This is the crypto markets fear and greed indicator. It came out in early 2018 and in my opinion is very accurate. It's based on human psychology and the emotions fear and greed. The MOST important levels on this chart is the 45 to 50 level and even more specifically , the 47-48 area. This 47-48 area is the support and resistance level for crypto since this indicators inception. When crypto is in a bull market it will sit above and it will serve a s resistance in the bear market like we see in the in the chart before the crypto crash of 2022. We can notice, before the ultimate fall in June of 22 that it broke above this level ever so slightly but, could not hold. During the bear market greed only reached this level once and was faced with a stiff rejection. However as we can see after this rejection the greed stayed higher even in the FTX fear of November. Although prices fell lower and there was fear everywhere the story was a little different, smart money got greedy. This lead to the initial thrust in January, it then retested the uptrend in the mid March dip before bursting through out of the bear market. Now, I'm also looking into time frames as well, although nothing is confirmed yet. 55 days cycles of movement or push before a change in pattern, but, it's too early to tell. Although, I think it could be worth looking into. The important thing here is the 47-48 area, I do believe going forward this area will hold while we are in a bull market. A substantial break especially if not followed by a quick recovery like in mid March could be a spell for disaster. Eventually it will get to extreme greed, this is where you would want to take profits. However it can stay at extreme greed for weeks at a time. Once it gets there we will have another look at it and asses it further. If you find this informative or interesting, please and follow for future content. Kind regards WeAreSat0shi
BNC:BLXLong
by WeAreSat0shi
6
Observing Bitcoin's UptrendsEach time Bitcoin has entered an uptrend, it eventually reaches a new ATH and then loses the uptrend about a year or so later, and the begins a new and weaker uptrend. Its first uptrend was lost about 2-3 months following its ATH, and the 2nd and 3rd ATH failed to re-test the bottom of that trend. When the 2nd uptrend was lost, the next ATH perfectly re-tested the bottom of that trend before dropping and ultimately losing it. *** This time is not like the others *** Within approx 5 months of losing the red uptrend shown above (its 3rd uptrend), Bitcoin reclaimed it for another 5 months or so. Then it lost it a second time; eventually testing the bottom of the current or 4th uptrend during the March 2020 black-swan event and briefly wicking below it. Following the black-swan, Bitcoin moved up to reclaim the red uptrend a second time; in a little under a year. Again, remaining above it for a little over 4 months. After two attempts to reclaim the 3rd uptrend, it fell back below, re-testing the bottom of it, and then moving back down to our present uptrend. What is also different this time, is that it has held the current uptrend twice after having attempted to reclaim the previous one. It ha also held the current uptrend for longer than any previous - for a little over 4.5 years. The previous two were held for a little over 3 years. Will we see one last weaker push towards the bottom of the red trendline before finally losing the current one?
BNC:BLX
by dudebruhwhoa
Good or bad? Bitcoin ETF BlackRock While the crypto market is all green, amid the news about the BlackRock ETF, I decided to write a post about it. On December 15, two, the largest US company CME Group launched Bitcoin futures. CME is the only one who provides the opportunity to trade bitcoin futures in the United States and they are the first to enter the area of derivatives instrument for the cryptocurrency market. A week ago, BlackRock applied for approval of the Bitcoin ETF. BlackRock is an American international investment company headquartered in New York. One of the largest investment companies in the world and the largest in the world in terms of assets under management. As of the end of 2022, assets under management were $8.59 trillion. The probability of this application being approved by Blackrock is quite high Relying on historical data on SEC decisions regarding Blackrock's various ETF applications. BlackRock has an astounding success rate: 575 applications approved versus just one rejected. However, not everyone shares such a quick optimism. The fact is that in addition to the positive statistics on the SEC's approval of applications for various ETFs by Blackrock, there are also negative statistics on how many other applications just for bitcoin-ETFs the SEC rejected. The first attempts to register a Bitcoin ETF were made back in 2014 by the Winklevoss twin brothers. Since then, there have been more than 30 attempts to create a spot exchange-traded fund for bitcoin, but all applications have faced opposition from regulators, who cited market problems and a lack of investor protection. Among those rejected : Vaneck, one of the world's leading asset management companies. In March of this year, the company received its third consecutive rejection from the SEC to launch a spot ETF on bitcoin. SEC refusals to launch such investment products always report that there is no regulated cryptocurrency market, which means companies, including VanEck, simply "do not have joint oversight agreements with a regulated spot market of significant size for bitcoin trading." ARK is the investment firm of well-known investor Katie Wood. In April of this year, Ark Invest, along with Swiss company 21Shares, again attempted to coordinate a spot exchange-traded bitcoin fund with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. They already have two failed attempts under their belt. Grayscale, a company that manages cryptocurrency trusts and other investment products. The company is suing the SEC over its refusal to convert its own fund, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). GBTC is now the best-known solution for buying bitcoin. However, shares of this fund are not allowed to trade on the first-tier stock exchanges, with Grayscale charging a management fee of about 2% per year, while traditional ETFs have a fee of 0.5%. Last year, the SEC approved a cryptocurrency ETF, but only for futures markets. It's a much more complex and expensive product for investors. "Another theory is that BlackRock may be aware that the SEC may lose the Grayscale case, and is going to play ahead to be prepared for the case to be lost and then suddenly open the way for a bitcoin ETF." Assuming the answer is yes, what happens afterwards? I interpret this news positively in the long run, because new big money will come to the cryptocurrency industry, and a lot of new things await us. BUT I think like last time, there will be another good entry point into the market formed for the big players. Thereby we may see the very corrective movement till September, November, and in these dates there will be already dispersed information about future halving, etc. and then there will be a real bull run first of all for Bitcoin. Read about where I expect the bottom of the correction in this post Best regards EXCAVO
BNC:BLX
by EXCAVO
24
The Bitcoin Halving Cycle 2024The occurrence of a Bitcoin halving event refers to a significant reduction, usually every four years, in the reward granted to Bitcoin miners. Historical data and the Bitcoin price chart reveal distinct patterns of how the halving event impacts the value of Bitcoin, leading to the formation of what is known as the Bitcoin halving cycle. The Bitcoin Halving Cycle is visually represented in the chart above, which showcases a log-scale weekly candlestick chart depicting the price of Bitcoin. This chart highlights the consistent pattern of the three distinct phases, namely the bull market, bear market, stagnation/recovery period or range and accumulation phase, that occur within each cycle. Within the depicted chart, different coloured boxes symbolise specific market phases. The light green box signifies the bull market, while the red box represents the bear market. The yellow box indicates the recovery phase. Inside the yellow box, three additional boxes are displayed. The blue box represents the initial accumulation stage following the bear market. The lime green box signifies a period of expansion, and the orange box represents a subsequent ranging period, which can be viewed as a second stage of accumulation. Analysing the Bitcoin price chart, we can observe that a typical Bitcoin halving cycle on average unfolds as follows: a one and half year bull market, followed by a one-year bear market, and finally a one and half year period of stagnation (range and accumulation). Bitcoin is currently in its fourth halving cycle, and can be considered in the ranging and accumulation cycle. During these stages of the cycle in Bitcoin's history, price has reached its 0.786 fibonacci retracement at least once when measuring this from the peak of the bull market stage to the trough of the Bear cycle. (blue horizontal line) If history rhymes, Bitcoins's price has the potential to reach $52,000 USD from now or until the next halving date.
BNC:BLXLong
by Kinoko_zoku
3