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Benford's Law Applied to BitcoinContinuing the series as we consider the validity of this approach, here are the midpoints across magnitudes for Bitcoin. For more information regarding the origin of this analysis please refer to previous posts linked below. Benford's Law, also known as the Law of Anomalous Numbers, describes the tendency of the leading digit of an unrestricted collection of data to conform to a power law distribution as seen below. This natural law is the underlying basis for using logarithmic price charts in order to view rate of change over time. By taking midpoints, I am simply adding gridlines to the chart, but have found it interesting how these and other midpoints act as support or resistance time and time again. The probability of leading digits: P(1) = 30.1% P(2) = 17.6% P(3) = 12.5% P(4) = 9.7% P(5) = 7.9% P(6) = 6.7% P(7) = 5.8% P(8) = 5.1% P(9) = 4.6% Legend: 1.33 light blue 1.78 purple 2.37 pink 3.16 red 4.21 orange 5.62 dark green 7.50 light green 10 dark blue Next order of midpoints in gray I couldn't keep the next order of midpoints for the entire price history since tradingview only allows so many lines of pinescript code. You should still notice how minor and major highs and lows occur at these midpoints shown and additional midpoints not shown. As we'll see when looking at other assets, I've become convinced that this approach of viewing price over time should be included when forecasting potential minor and major highs and lows.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
bitcoin is not going up to 1 million or anywhere close to thatIt's actually most likely in ABC retracement which if we just ended wave B, we should see a strong move down for wave C and no ETF bullshit will make it go to 200k or higher. However, there are always bullish and bearish counts. If we are really in a bullish uptrend we should see a strong move up sometime soon as this should be a 3rd wave impulse where we are now. I try to make things very simple so I marked everything in ABC, whereas a professional Elliot wave analyst would probably count it all somewhere different. To me, this is a big massive range with deviations marked above and below ranges. any support or resistance in between -the golden pockets .618 are to be bought or sold(.786 0n log scale in this photo). There are many support and resistance levels on the chart, which I'm planning to buy and sell, bet the main idea is here very clear, I want to see market structure broken on every support and then up for retest into golden pockets(linear). If we show bullish signs of resistance I will not short or sell my spot BTC and will be looking for higher. target to the bottom is around 6-7k and i don't care about ETF or any black swan shit, the only thing that bothers me is that when we reach below 10k I'm afraid that we might not be able to buy, because of something like coinbase going down, this actually is the thing that worries me the most. All the panic and bad news you would see at that price is a normal practice, just like you see all the bullish news here at the top at 48k
BNC:BLXShort
by Trader_Polo
2
BTC: Next 5-Week Candle is Critical and WhyHi Everyone! Simply wanted to point out how important the "closing" of the NEXT 5-Week candle is critical. Very critical... Why? Well, read the text inside the Blue Text Bubble; which states: Next 5-Week candle is critical. How so? Every time both Red and Blue Lines "close" above white/aqua level 80, the White Upper B-Band Holds Support. What do I mean by "holds support?" If we have a pullback, the candle will "close" at or above the White Upper B-Band. The White Upper B-Band is at $35,452.32 at this writing with 5-Days and 11-hours remaining in the current 5-Week candle. If you remember my previous chart publication regarding Garreth salloway's prediction of $32,000 to $30,000 by end of May, 2024, I mentioned the Bitfinex Hack of 2016 several times. Look at where the price fell down to in the 5-Week time frame during the Bitfinex Hack. It fell down to the White Upper B-Band. However, the Aqua Upper B-Band ended up holding support during the Bitfinex Hack due to the 5-Week "closing" above the Aqua Upper B-Band. So, the NEXT 5-Week candle is extremely important. In that we really want the Red and Blue Lines to "close" above level 80. If the Red and Blue Lines can "close" above level 80 the next 5-Week candle, this would mean two things: #1 - High Probability the Bull Cycle is officially in full swing. #2 - The White Upper B-Band has a high probability of "holding" support.
BNC:BLX
by WyckoffMode
13
The chart no one wants to see or believe!There is more than one way to skin a snake. Not only price can hurt you... Time can hurt you too! How about some up and down action for 3 to 5 years that goes no where? Like shacking the Jar and angering the ants so that they loose faith and confidence, so when the rally really actually starts they won't believe it! Maybe it got to easy to buy and hold for 2 to 3 years and sell? If you are a hodler for long term, then this should not affect you and you should just keep buying. It actually should be viewed as a gift as prices will come back to low prices for stacking. In this chart I'm hitting two birds with one stone as I Have added Silver, Gold, S&P500, Nasdaq and the Dow Jones. Why? so we can see how Bitcoin has interacted with these 5 other markets. By taking a glance at them, It is very clear to see that all of these markets have had affect on Bitcoin in one way or another. This is not to be taken as written in stone and non of the prices or moves are literal and just examples. The point is a long term zig zag pattern and staying range bound to shake out the greed and impatient or weak hands. How about life happening and being forced to sell although you have no intent too? The more that time passes in bad times the likely you'll be forced to sell to stay a float. Nothing has changed in bitcoin network, in fact it keeps getting stronger and healthier but a pause in price could be healthy in the bigger picture. So what happens from here? We just stack for 5 years and watch it bounce in between the Nasdaq and Dow? Well, yes and no. There could be other altcoins that run fairly hard during this time period. For example, Ethereum and Ethereum based tokens. Gold and Silver could go on a run. Also narratives could change on a dime. Truth is... no one knows, you just have to keep and ear to the street and pay attention. Don't get caught 1 step behind. Without a doubt, it's a great time to stack!! No one can argue that. Thanks for viewing WeAreSat0shi Have a blessed new year!
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
4
Is something wrong? The halving come early?We are looking at a chart of bitcoins entire history against the stock to flow. The stock to flow is the orange line that price action tends to follow. The green line on the lower part of the chart with the what looks like speed bumps in is the deviation of the stock to flow. Well, the deviation in the past has made moves higher almost precisely the halving. Yet here we are over a year away from the halving and it's signaling something. What is it saying? or could it possible be broken? or is there another underlying issue? Let's take a look. First off the stock to flow is sitting right at 52.6k and right now and the price of bitcoin is at roughly 16k. This is the biggest deviation from the stock to flow it has ever had in a bear market. The price now is so detached from the S2F that it could be literally telling us that bitcoin could be as cheap to by right now as it is right before a halving. This is all backed up by the RSI indicator on the bottom that is showing us bitcoin has never been this over sold on the monthly ever before. OK, BUT WHY? why is it so cheap right now? Good old fashioned fear could be the answer. Or is there something else wrong? Is it something nefarious? Only time will really tell the answer to that. From what I see , I think we are waaay over sold, so much that the S2F has deviated more than ever and the RSI says the same thing. So does this mean the bottom is in and we won' t go lower ? No, we actually can go lower, What it could mean is that this a very rare anomaly that might just might never happen again. It could be the norm in bitcoins future as it grows. Or it could be the buy of a lifetime and could explode higher in the weeks. One this for sure... it's a damn good time to buy. Legend S2F Model Value S2F Bands Deviation RSI let me know what you think in the comments below Thanks for looking WeAreSat0shi Stay Blessed! The RSI is also the most oversold
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
10
Monthly on btcusd.January ended with a Doji candle, a symbol of uncertainty and often when seen on the tops a prelude to reversals. But for a reversal of the trend, confirmation will be needed and we know that the underlying trend is bullish, so in this context we can use the doji candle to understand whether it will make a retracement or not, using the highs and lows of the candle. For the February or March candles, a closing below the minimum should be seen as a retracement signal because to reverse the underlying trend, in addition to confirmation, time is also needed and on this we have seen that the trend has been bullish for more than a year . A close above the doji's high, however, would be a very strong bullish signal, consolidating a trend that for now seems to catch its breath in the short term and that's all.
BNC:BLX
by Melupira89
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Lucas Daily, Weekly, & Monthly EMAs)Closing in on the completion of the series on moving averages, I have overlaid the EMAs using Lucas Numbers to determine the number of periods to measure for daily, weekly, and monthly closes. 2 black 1 orange 3 red 4 pink 7 purple 11 dark blue 18 light blue 29 light green 47 black 76 orange 123 red 199 pink 322 purple 521 dark blue 843 light blue 1364 light green 2207 black 3571 orange By now I have presented a sufficient number of moving averages to compare. Hopefully perspective has been given to the shortcomings of rigidness. I do not intend to push the importance of one over another. The purpose of these posts on moving averages is to clarify the immanence of short and long term rates of change. Measuring previous rates of change can only aid in the identification of future changes in rates of change. Future posts will show my preferred metrics. How else can we play with this data? Over time, I will explore the deviations of means both from each other and from the current price. We will also consider how significant moving average crossings are. We'll note moving averages as being more significant when they are parallel or align with channels since different participants looking at different metrics arrive at the same conclusion, the rate of change.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Lucas Daily, Weekly, & Monthly SMAs)Continuing the series, Lucas Numbers are ultimately derived from phi, the golden ratio. I consider them Fibonacci Multiples because I discovered them by taking the ratio of nonsequential numbers along the Fibonacci Sequence. Using daily, weekly, and monthly closes, I have overlaid the SMAs using Lucas Numbers to determine the number of periods to measure. 2 black 1 orange 3 red 4 pink 7 purple 11 dark blue 18 light blue 29 light green 47 black 76 orange 123 red 199 pink 322 purple 521 dark blue 843 light blue 1364 light green 2207 black 3571 orange It shouldn't be surprising to see Lucas Numbers behave similarly to Fibonacci Sequence moving averages.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoins Moving Averages (Fibonacci Daily, Weekly, Monthly EMAs)We know what to expect, but we might as well show the chart with Exponential Moving Averages. I begin to wonder if the deviations between close moving averages have any significance. Using daily, weekly, and monthly closes, I have overlaid the EMAs using the Fibonacci Sequence to determine the number of periods to measure. Starting with the 5th number of the Fibonacci Sequence: 5 black 8 orange 13 red 21 pink 34 purple 55 dark blue 89 light blue 144 light green 233 black 377 orange 610 red 987 pink 1597 purple 2584 dark blue 4181 light blue We really don't need to consider multiple time frames, but should remain cognizant that using a shorter period to measure the sets will result in more precision given sequential numbers approach phi, the golden ratio.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoins Moving Averages (Fibonacci Daily, Weekly, Monthly SMAs)We have taken a look at Daily, Weekly, & Monthly Moving Averages for commonly used numbers given our base 10 system, and discussed the reason for the discrepancies across time frames. Now we take a look at how moving averages change using the Fibonacci Sequence across multiple time frames. Using daily, weekly, and monthly closes, I have overlaid the SMAs using the Fibonacci Sequence to determine the number of periods to measure. Starting with the 5th number of the Fibonacci Sequence: 5 black 8 orange 13 red 21 pink 34 purple 55 dark blue 89 light blue 144 light green 233 black 377 orange 610 red 987 pink 1597 purple 2584 dark blue 4181 light blue Understanding that the next number in the sequence is related to the previous by a factor of phi, the golden ratio, is it really a surprise that these moving averages trend so closely despite changing the time frame?
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Common Daily, Weekly, & Monthly SMAs)This is a comparison of Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) for commonly viewed periods using closing data for difference periods. I have overlaid the SMAs for the following sets of periods using Daily, Weekly, and Monthly closes. 10 black 20 orange 50 red 100 pink 200 purple 500 dark blue 1000 light blue 1500 light green 2000 black 2500 orange 3000 red 3500 pink 4000 purple 4500 dark blue ... Is there any significance between the relationship between the 100 day, 100 week, and 100 month SMAs? Are you surprised that the 1500 day and 50 month trend so closely? Can one or a group be more useful than others? A necessary consideration when determining the usefulness of multiple moving averages is how they relate to each other. The relationship of these moving averages are baked into the fact that we use numbers in base 10 for the selected set, where as, the periods used have changed based on our accepted grouping of days and divisions of a solar year.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Fibonacci, Weekly)Continuing this series on moving averages, here they are using the Fibonacci Sequence. We have already done this for daily closes and other periods. Using weekly closes, I have overlaid the SMAs and EMAs of commonly used sets. The same color represents the same set of periods while the brighter color is the EMA and the duller color is the SMA. Starting with the 5th number of the Fibonacci Sequence: 5 black 8 orange 13 red 21 pink 34 purple 55 dark blue 89 light blue 144 light green 233 black 377 orange ...
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Lucas, Weekly)Moving right along, here are the averages using Lucas Numbers. Refer to past posts for a look at daily closes and other sequences. Using weekly closes, I have overlaid the SMAs and EMAs of commonly used sets. The same color represents the same set of periods while the brighter color is the EMA and the duller color is the SMA. 2 black 1 orange 3 red 4 pink 7 purple 11 dark blue 18 light blue 29 light green 47 black 76 orange 123 red 199 pink 322 purple 521 dark blue ...
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Common, Weekly)In a previous post, I introduced moving averages and common periods measured using daily closes. Now we look at the same number of periods measured but each period is one week instead of one day. Using weekly closes, I have overlaid the SMAs and EMAs of commonly used sets. The same color represents the same set of periods while the brighter color is the EMA and the duller color is the SMA. 10 black 20 orange 50 red 100 pink 200 purple 500 dark blue (not yet shown) 1000 light blue 1500 light green 2000 black ... Next we will look at the other sets of periods previously using weekly data instead of daily.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles