Prince Harry chooses platinum!Possible Wolfe Wave on watch.
Bottom fishing and trend fight for this high risk but possible high reward pattern.
Confirmation needed.
XPTUSD1! trade ideas
Platinum Set to Bottom - Time to position LongThis week the COT report for Platinum has a interesting story to tell. Please click here. www.screencast.com
This is a 4 month view of Commercial activity in Platinum Futures. Factoring in a weighting and volatility component, we measure participant positioning and activity and then score this on a 18 month and 5yr basis. This is reflected as a Relative Strength Score from 0-100%.
Notable points here:
1 - Commercial Net Position scores a 91% on a 18m basis.2 - Commercial Longs @ 19,708, score 100% on a 18m basis.3 - Commercial Shorts of (33,473) score a 84% on a 18 month basis.4 - We see that this accumulation has occurred on a continuous basis over the past 4 months, as price has dropped from over 1,000 to below 900.
We now measure price dispersion for every instance where Commercial net position scored 90%+ on a 18 month basis. www.screencast.com
What we see is that on a 20 day forward interval, 70% of the time price advances $27.50 vs declines of only (16) for odds of 7:4 in the bulls camp. The baseline 70% movement of Platinum going back to 2004 is $24 up vs (20) down, so we see distinct out-performance as odds have improved from 6:5 to now 7:4.
Further adding to the favorable odds is that we are approaching the seasonally strong period. Going back to 2000, the months of July + Aug have seen a 61% winning percentage with the average combined price advance of 8% over that period.
The next point we want to highlight is how Platinum has traded during the past 18 months. Please click here: www.screencast.com
We can see that Platinum has been range bound over the prior 18 months. What is interesting to note is how it behaves at the bottom of it's price cycle. What we see is that declines end on sharp down trading weeks with significant increases in volume. Standard Technical Analysis theory will flag this as a confirmation of trend continuing, and encourage more shorting here, which is exactly what trend following algos are doing. However, we can clearly see that this type of price action has been marking bottoms like a clock.
As a final note, with 70% of PGM production coming from South Africa, there is large geo-political risk to future production. Currently there are threats of government takeover of mining assets, upcoming wage negotiations with labor unions, as well as a silent genocide of South African farmers taking place. This is not the backdrop we'd want to be short of the platinum metals group.
Conclusion
As technicals are all extremely bearish, and we don't want to fade this strength, wait for some indication of price reversal before entry. A close above 893, the May 2 low, will give first indication of a bear trap, as all of those shorting the breakdown from 2 weeks back will be hit with quick losses. www.screencast.com
Unfortunately there is not a liquid options market to hedge here, so we would use smaller position size and wide stops as a strategy. Go long at 893, using 860 as a stop. Unfortunately there is not a liquid options market to hedge here, so we would use smaller position size and wide stops as a strategy. Go long at 893, using 860 as a stop. Look to ride the position higher throughout the summer for $90 or better, giving you 3-1 R/R.
Alchymist
Do you know the odds of each bet you make in the futures market? You can. www.3ptcap.com
PlatinumChart looks good. Heaviest Volume profile is sitting in the range where it is being traded rn. BB bands are looking towards a squeeze. I'm in.
Platinum Trade ideaPlatinum bounced couple times of 900 resistance, to stop in 950's regions. To ultimately reach 1000's
This is just an idea
Breakout from 5yr down channelPretty clear weekly close here above the falling trendline for the last 5years.
King of the MetalsI have published previously on the silver/gold ratio. Silver is bound to outperform gold over time. The question is whether platinum will outperform silver and gold, or underperform both metals. Watch the dotted line for a breakout. If anyone has interesting research on platinum please post in comments below or pm me (fundamental or historical is preferred).
954 is technical resistance in platinum. Watch current level.
Bottom fishingThe prices are bouncing from a pretty relevant dynamic support.
These levels could be good enough to check for a major trend change.
Pattern on watch
Everyone is buying cryptos, while PL looks "precious"Pun intended. All I hear from the post office guy or my friend's aunt or whomever wants to talk about finance is, what's going on with these cryptos. There's decent coin to be made on the precious metals here. Let me quarterback this out.
Initial Margin in PL: $1925
A 25 handle move = $50/handle x 25 = $1250 profit, less commissions.
ROI = 65%
For any investor/trader to make 65% on a crypto from here would mean. Now if I go on bitmex and trade a perpetual inverse swap, now we're talking!
BTC from 7800 to 12,870
ETH from 330 to 544.50
I love trading all assets and don't have biases toward any particular one. Important factors remain the same: liquidity, volatility, slippage, flow and hours and feel for it watching the tape. One isn't better than the other. It's the one that suits your trading style, personality, risk tolerance, sleep-like-a-rock-ness, and obviously, profit potential. Point being trade it all, learn it all. Try it all. Then figure out which one you can get really really good at and focus on that.
Betting that Platinum will start an uptrend from hereMainly based on it touching a very old trendline which I hope will hold.
1H with Median Line and dailyBottom fishing aficionados: catching the 1H long while watching the daily.
Platinum On daily chart:
We are trading in oversold area of RSI with a possoible positive cross on MACD below zero line in next few days .
I am expecting a move up to wave B in yellow area after this falling down .
Still bearish and waiting for any positive signals . I need the price to go out the down channel 1st .
Platinum Futures. Watching and Waiting to go LongPlatinum, along with gold and silver, have been in a decline for the past month (20 bars) with no reprieve in sight. We will be looking at previous S/R zone of 890-900 for entry points. Bottoming is usually a process and we never look to "pick the bottom". We've learned over the decades that that's a losing game with a negative ROI. We are merely examining which spots give us the highest probability and then use prudent risk/reward management to entry and exit trades with predefined stops and targets. Let's keep it simple.
PLATINUM BEAR FANEven if platinum has shown strength recently I still believe that the bear trend will resume soon. The 1000.00 psychological number is a good opportunity to test.
Platinum finished a healthy correctionThe chart shows a perfect example of a healthy fibonacci retracement. Price dipped below the 1H 100 EMA and started to recover. 980 remains solid support. To those looking for long positions: this might just be the moment you were waiting for.
Platinum UptrendOctober Platinum using 20 day moving average as support as it continues to move up building out a bullish Cypher. Next upside target 996.4 for a double top.
Platinum Bearish Cypher SetupOctober Platinum is coming to the end of a Bearish Cypher. Overbought condition and the ceiling of R3 should send Platinum down. Downside target is 948.5. Historically, Platinum rarely exceeds R3, so a better potential for short term downward pressure. Watching to see if it can eclipse 973.5 as it could take one more run up before coming down.
BreakoutBroken the near-term downward trend and on the daily chart has broken and is trading above then200DMA. Looking for this to now out in a higher, high - something over 976 and enter the long trade looking for at least 1005 which is the 50% Fib of the most recent low/high phase and a key pivot level.
