GOLD FUTURES : OUTLOOK This is the same idea. as previously posted but on the futures chart. It seems price is already at our entry on the futures contract chart.
"May fortune attend thee, and thy trade prosper." .......L2Earned
XAUTRY1! trade ideas
2024-07-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: In my weekly post I expected a pullback to the bull trend line and that bulls would buy it again. That happened and then some. Very strong buying and market is right under prev ath 2477.1. It’s strong enough to expect more upside and we can probably print 2500 tomorrow. Where are the bears? Gone and waiting for bulls to start profit taking. You will see consecutive big bear bars and know when they appear. Will be a decent tripple top to short.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300 - 2500
bull case: Bulls want a new ath and all the stops too close above it. 2500 would be a nice round number to reach. After that I don’t have anything for the bulls. It’s a trading range since April and such big trading ranges happen before the final flag and this one here is probably it. I would not bet on another strong bull trend above 2500.
Invalidation is below 2400.
bear case: Bears stepping aside enough and letting the higher high happen. They will probably wait for the bulls to begin the profit taking before shorting aggressively. Since the highest monthly close is from May and below 2350, I don’t have much arguments for the bulls until they close a month above that price.
Invalidation is above 2510.
short term: Bullish af. Don’t look for shorts. Go long on strong momentum and see how high this can go. 15m 20ema is my stop on any long as long as it holds.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long anything around the 1h 20ema.
Can the HOUSE SHORT GOLD from 4Hr Supply/78.5% Daily Fib. Level?COMEX:GC1!
"Excellence is not a singular act but a habit. You are what you do repeatedly." -Shaquille O'Neal
Top of the Morning Family! As we approach the start of a new trading week 2nd week in July, I have drawn out this Narrative to Possibly SHORT GOLD if we can get buyers to push price up into Higher Premium Pricing on the DAILY Fib... Below I will give a brief description into what I'll be looking for in order to go SHORT on this asset. I am expecting a bunch of Volatility in the markets this week as Donald TRUMP was so called shot at yesterday in a failed attempt at his presidential rally while speaking to the masses...
1) Price is caught on the HTF in between 70.5% - 62% Daily Fib. Levels... Buyers have created a huge 4Hr Bear indecision candle that I Believe will Hold to support more buyers into pushing price into HIGHER Premium Fib. Levels...
2) Now if we can get this 4Hr Demand zone to Hold at 62.0% Fib. Level. and Buyers push price Higher into Mitigating the 4Hr Supply Zone / 78.5% Killzone Fib. Level above, I will then drop down to the LTF'S and wait for a confirmed 15M CHoCh and then look to scale SHORT after the mitigation of these levels have been completed....
3) Now if we can get these sequence of events to take place I will enter off a confirmed 15m Bear CHoCh and look to target 62% Fib Level... Roughly around 250-290 Pts SHORT IN our favor... Also price needs to be trading underneath the RED Vwap on the 1Hr TF and below as a last min confirmation to enter the market SHORT ....
****Please remember we have to pay very very CLOSE attention to the US DOLLAR as they do trade against each other.... Whenever I am looking to trade GOLD I always pay attention to where the US DOLLAR could potentially be headed as well! NVR FORGET!!
4) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with...
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
Gold/Silver, the Missing PieceGold (August) / Silver (September)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2428.9, up 8.2
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 30.936, down 0.226
In recent days, Gold futures have shown significantly more buoyancy than Silver. In fact, Gold reached a high of 2448.5 this morning, shortly before stronger than expected Retail Sales data batted it back. This is about 1% from Gold’s record high of 2477, whereas Silver has struggled below $32 and more than a dollar (about 3%) from its 33.05 peak on May 21st, not to mention a level nearly 50% from Silver’s record high. The Gold/Silver ratio broke a critical area of support in the first half of May as Silver showed significant strength into $33 and since bottoming on May 29th it has consolidated (because Silver is the denominator, a lower ratio shows Silver outperforming). Over the last three sessions, Gold has diverged, and this brings the ratio near the upper-end of its range over the last two months and will prove to be a critical time for the precious metals. We are currently in a seasonally supportive time for metals and economic data has broadly trended softer, which has been supportive to the narrative Fed cuts and thus a tailwind to metals. In fact, the CME Group FedWatch Tool has shown nearly a 60% probability the Fed cuts three time this year. However, a failure of Silver to participate will certainly make it a difficult environment for metals to perform.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2445-2449.1***, 2455***, 2461.7***, 2471.3-2477****
Pivot: 2433
Support: 2428.9-2430.4***, 2415.7-2419.1***, 2406.1**, 2396.1-2401.5***
Silver (Sept)
Resistance: 31.23-31.28**, 31.45-31.53***, 31.69-31.80***, 31.98**
Pivot: 31.00
Support: 30.62-30.84***, 30.45-30.54***, 30.34**, 30.00-30.17****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Gold Day Trading analysisOn USD/JPY , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price 2388.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
GOLD Begins Downtrend Amid Fed Rate Cut SpeculationsGold prices have initiated a downside movement during the early European session on Monday. Market participants appear convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in September, which is seen as a potential tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Our analysis indicates that the price is currently within a supply area, showing a rebound on the daily timeframe.
Commercial traders remain bearish on gold, while retail traders are holding bullish positions. Despite not having all the confirmations, we anticipate a possible drop in gold prices towards the previous demand area. The prevailing market sentiment suggests a potential for gold to continue its downward trajectory.
Moreover, the markets are also factoring in the possibility that the Fed will lower borrowing costs again in December. This expectation is preventing the US Dollar (USD) from capitalizing on its modest recovery from a three-month low, adding another layer of support for the USD-denominated gold price. Typically, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thereby boosting its appeal.
As the Fed's monetary policy outlook continues to evolve, the anticipation of rate cuts is likely to influence gold prices further. The interplay between commercial and retail traders' positions, along with broader market dynamics, will play a crucial role in shaping the future price movements of gold.
In conclusion, with the early signs of a downtrend in gold prices and the market's conviction about impending Fed rate cuts, we are poised to see continued volatility. The current supply area and the bearish sentiment among commercial traders support the case for a potential decline towards the previous demand area. Investors should closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions in the gold market.
✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
mgc1My external Structure 15min Time Frame is Bullish (buys), my internal structure within my range was bearish (sells) as it was in the pulling back phase, we can now see that the pullback is over as we now have a CHOCH, (Change of Character), so now external and internal order flow is Bullish (buys) we can now look at LTF (Lower Time Frame) which will be the 1 minute for entry. However I want price to reach our AOI (Area of Interest) which is the Bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap) just below the LQ (Liquidity Sweep) once we get abit of fuel in our system we will then look to enter after confirmations.
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls got the breakout above and 2 good looking bull bars above the daily 20ema. Above 2407 we can expect bears to give up and a retest of 2460 or higher. Market is amazingly symmetrical. 3 tries to drop below 2300 and we are probably seeing the 3rd try at printing above 2477 over the next days. It’s a big trading range and I will long this above 2407 for 2460+ and will short this above 2460, once market turns around again. Maybe bulls can print a higher high or maybe they don’t, it does not matter since you wait for the clear reversal before shorting again.
comment: Bears tried to bring it below the daily 20ema and failed again. Bulls got another smaller higher high which was also a perfect breakout, retest and long again. So bulls are in full control but they are also not very strong or the market would not pull back each time after 1-2 good looking bull bars. Same reasoning as last week. Can bulls print a higher high or will this become a right shoulder? Probably the latter. Bulls are at 2 good resistance lines and buying above 2400 has not been profitable for more than 2 days in this market ever.
current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2407 is broken. If bulls break above, trading range is expanded again up to 2480
key levels: 2300 - 2480
bull case: Bulls keeping it inside the bull wedge and channel and as long as we stay in them, it’s bullish af. Bulls are mostly buying dips and not highs, otherwise market would print more consecutive bull bars. Targets for the bulls are obvious, retesting 2477 or making a higher high.
Invalidation is below 2370.
bear case: Bears only need 2 consecutive bear bars to reverse the market to below 2350 again. They are selling new highs inside the channel/wedge and so far it was profitable at least for scalps. They want this leg up to become the right shoulder and finally break the neckline on the next leg down and get below 2300.
Invalidation is above 2510.
outlook last week:
“short term: Neutral until break above 2407. Bullish above”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2397 and now we are at 2420. 23 points higher… I mean… That’s pretty neutral to me since we also traded 30 points lower during the week.
short term: Bearish for a pullback at least to the lower bull trend line again where I expect bulls to buy it again. No opinion after that.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged
current swing trade: Went long but cut it early. It’s not bullish enough to buy up here. Will only look for shorts once we break the bull trend line.
Chart update: Adjusted the bull wedge and added bull channel with last recent highs but just minor things. Trading range price action and patterns are weak at best.
Gold is forming a bullish flag. We are close to a break out in gold. Notice the bull flag pattern forming on the daily chart.
Where next for Gold?Gold is tricky at the moment because it's uncoupled from traditional influencers, it is a form of currency and I think central banks buying gold as a possible hedge against any pending currency crises that might ensue either debasing the US$ or the problems the Japanese are facing with their currency woes.
So I believe we push on higher but at a junction right now on whether we continue to correct a little more or continue the move higher, I have mapped out possible moves.
-3% Gold and -5% Silver....DOWN.....from today's high...in 2days-03.00% in Gold.....and -05.00% in Silver.....DOWN in 2 DAYS.....
Gold and Silver crashed.....IN 2DAYS......
Sell......Gold August Futures.....2430.30 range to 2357.00......before Friday's closing.....
Sell......Silver September Futures.....32.002 range to 30.400......before Friday's closing.....
End of a great weekLast week was hard but with this one my stats are better now, but the most important thing once again, I did it following my trading plan.
Gold rates about to hikeGoldM chart has witnessed triangle breakout recently. It may reach 74K in few days and may grow further after that depending upon global cues.
gold interday update near by powel speech edu pur.gold spot stya abv 2375 in mcx 72750 stya abv looks up side 2382--88 in mcx 72900-73100 near expect support find 2365 in mcx 72450
GC1: Spring effectOn GC1 as you can see on the chart we have a spring effect on vwap indicator and also on the support line so it's mean that we would have a hight probability to have an uptrend...
Gold and Silver CRASHED.....NEW LOW in next few minutes....Are you ready.....
Gold and Silver crashed in next few minutes.....
Sell Gold August Futures.....2393.20 range to 2360 2350 2340......
Sell Silver September Futures.....31.442 range to 30.800 30.600 30.200......
Strong buy signal for gold. Can now reach USD 10,000.Technical Analysis of the Gold Price
The gold price is in a long-term rising trend (cf. monthly chart), and a further strong development is signaled for the gold price in the coming years within this rising trend.
A new strong technical buy signal for gold has recently been triggered after a breakout from a very large right-angled triangle consolidation formation (period 2011 - 2024, cf. chart).
According to this long-term positive trend that the gold price is moving within, and has done since back to 2002, a further rise in the gold price is now being signaled in the years ahead.
There is now little technical resistance to a further rise in the gold price, and the potential is all the way up to around USD 10,000 for the gold price in the next 6-8 years (cf. chart).
Gold can therefore still prove to be a good investment in the coming years as well.
In the very short picture now, the gold price is consolidating within a rectangle consolidation formation, and between a technical support level around USD 2,270.00 and a resistance level around USD 2,440.00.
There is also significant technical support for the gold price now around the 50-day moving average, which is currently around USD 2,340.00.
A break up from this consolidation formation, and above the USD 2,440 level will trigger new positive technical signals for the gold price, and where there will then be little technical resistance further up.
In the event of a break down from the aforementioned consolidation formation, and below the short-term support level which is around USD 2,340, a test of the support level down towards the 200-day moving average, which is currently around USD 2,150, will be signalled.
BRIC(S) by BRIC(S) Supporting GoldGold (August) / Silver (September)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2365.5, down 34.2
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 30.913, down 0.776
Gold and Silver were bludgeoned to start the week. One could argue they went too high, too fast during a holiday week. Although volume in Silver was nothing to write home about, volume in Gold on Friday hit the highest since the June roll on May 28th. Unfortunately, yesterday’s sell volume nearly matched this feat. One could also argue news that China did not add to its Gold reserves for the second month in a row was a sell trigger. However, price action largely held in the hours after the news broke, and India added 9 tons to its Gold reserves, the most in two years, topping the nearly 2 tons China added in April and the 5 tons it added in March. You have to go back to February, when China added 12 tons of Gold to its reserves to top India's purchases. In 2023, China added 225 tons to its Gold reserves, an average of 18.75 tons per month. We do believe that China is not done adding to its reserves, but the likely scenario is the PBOC is attempting not to drive prices while allowing other BRICS nations to accumulate at a faster rate. India increased its 2024 purchases by 32% in June.
Fed Chair Powell visits Congress for his first of a two-day testimony at 9:00 am CT, before July CPI data is due Thursday. There is additional comments around that time from the Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Barr and Treasury Secretary Yellen, but most interesting is Fed Governor Bowman due at 12:30 pm CT. She is known as the most hawkish voice at the Fed and it begs the question, is she planned to balance a more dovish Fed Chair Powell? Certainly, we would believe comments from Powell hold more weight.
While price action finds itself on the backfoot this week, traders can lean into strong seasonality in the month of July, and that price action has so far had a constructive response to Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll whipsaw low. This aligns to create rare major four-star support in Gold at 2353.1-2358.3 and a series of major three-star supports in Silver detailed below. Still, we must reduce our more Bullish Bias given that overnight price action failed at yesterday’s scene of the crime.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2374.8**, 2379.2-2381.8***, 2397.7-2401.5***
Pivot: 2371
Support: 2362.2-2365.5**, 2353.1-2358.3****, 2341.6-2343.7***
Silver (Sept)
Resistance: 31.37-31.53***, 31.69-31.80***, 31.98**
Pivot: 31.20-31.25
Support: 30.91-30.99***, 30.68-30.84***, 30.45-30.54***, 30.34**, 30.00-30.17****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GC Long on Pullback to 2385Gold had a very nice couple of days last week to break out of the descending wedge. It has rejected off of the 2400 level twice now, but I see no change in news or market conditions that would affect it dramatically in the next 24 hours (though, you know, famous last words...)
Gold loves to eat liquidity and then bounce. Currently there are large orders sitting at or just below 2385. I'm going to play a bounce off of this level to continue the pullback. Taking profit at 2394 (3:1 RR) because I'm not sure what it will do at the 2400 level again.
XAU HTF Analysis Price action analysis. Gold and dollar will continue to range for the next couple of months.
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futures Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Strong consecutive bull bars in a trading range but still a lower high. Once bulls break above 2406, market is free to go back above 2440 but I wait for confirmation. Bears not having good arguments here for reversing this. Only a strong 1h close below the 1h 20ema would raise the odds for the bears.
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls keeping it above support but can not print consecutive daily closes above the daily 20ema. Will probably see a breakout over the next 1-2 weeks.
comment: Bulls got the breakout above and 2 good looking bull bars above the daily 20ema. Above 2407 we can expect bears to give up and a retest of 2460 or higher. Market is amazingly symmetrical. 3 tries to drop below 2300 and we are probably seeing the 3rd try at printing above 2477 over the next days. It’s a big trading range and I will long this above 2407 for 2460+ and will short this above 2460, once market turns around again. Maybe bulls can print a higher high or maybe they don’t, it does not matter since you wait for the clear reversal before shorting again.
On the weekly and monthly tf market is having huge tails above the bars and market has not closed a monthly bar above 2350. After this retest of 2460/2500, I expect a deeper pullback to the low of this current bull wedge/channel 2250 and likely even deeper over the next 6-12 months down to the big bull trend line starting 2018, which would be around 2000.
current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2407 is broken. If bulls break above, trading range is expanded again up to 2480
key levels: 2300 - 2480
bull case: Bulls are right below the previous high at 2406 and the move up is strong enough to give the odds here to the bulls. Market tried repeatedly to break below 2300 and could not do it, so bears giving up here and want to short higher for better value. Measured move from Thu/Fri would bring us exactly to 2465. Another reason for this up move is the weekly 20ema which is at 2310 and we missed it by a couple of points.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Bears failed 3 times at 2300 over the past 4 weeks and now want higher prices for better shorts, which means they are mostly giving up. They know that we are in a trading range for 3 months and the r:r for shorts above 2460 is much better than for the bulls. Bears need to keep the monthly closes below 2350 or risk attracting more bulls buying high.
Invalidation is above 2510.
outlook last week:
“short term: Neutral. Play the triangle.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2339 and now we are at 2397. Perfect outlook.
short term: Neutral until break above 2407. Bullish above
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged
current swing trade: Will go long above 2407 and look for shorts above 2460.
Chart update: Removed bear trend lines.
