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Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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AUDUSD trade ideas

AU:Will Positive Aussie Labor Data Hold as US Retail Sales Loom?The Australian Dollar (AUD) found support on Thursday following the release of positive labor market data. Australia's Employment Change rose by 64.1K in September, bringing total employment to a record-high 14.52 million. This strong labor data has provided a temporary boost to the AUD, despite broader market uncertainties. However, traders remain cautious ahead of the anticipated US Retail Sales data, which is expected to show a 0.3% increase for September, up from 0.1% in the previous month. Technical Analysis and Market Positioning From a technical perspective, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows a clear divergence in market sentiment. Retail traders appear to be strongly bullish on the AUD/USD, while smart money (institutional investors) has taken a bearish stance. This discrepancy often signals the potential for market reversals, as institutional players are generally more adept at positioning ahead of key market moves. Additionally, when looking at seasonality trends from the Forecaster and considering key Supply and Demand areas, there’s a possibility that the AUD/USD could experience a new drop. However, this is likely to occur after a brief retracement, as the market digests both the Australian labor data and the upcoming US economic figures. Outlook and Strategy For now, we are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Given the mixed signals from the COT report and the seasonal factors at play, we prefer to remain on the sidelines until the situation becomes clearer. The upcoming US Retail Sales data, along with other market-moving news, will likely provide further direction for the AUD/USD in the days ahead. Once the market reacts to these key events, we will reassess and consider potential trade setups accordingly. Patience is key, as the next few days could bring more clarity after the news impacts play out. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
AUDUSD / SHORT / M15AUDUSD Potential Downside from the Bearish Order Block Bearish Order Block: 0.65762 - 0.65708 Based on my analysis using Smart Money Concepts (SMC), AUDUSD has formed a bearish order block around 0.65762 to 0.65708. Price action is showing signs of a potential reversal within this block, suggesting that sellers might step in at this level, leading to a downward move. I'll be watching how AUDUSD reacts in this range, with a high probability of this trade ending in profits if the order block holds strong as resistance. Trade Details: Position: Short Lot Size: 0.2 Entry Price: 0.65708 Take Profit: 0.65531 Stop Loss: 0.65885 This setup aligns with institutional movement patterns, and I’ll be monitoring for confirmation of bearish momentum. Let’s see how the market reacts!
Short
by PraveenTrader1
AUDUSD - In search of stronger support? Just an Idea...20SMA - Blue 200SMA - Pink Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines Your interest motivates me: If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service. How I see it: Can this pair fall deeper for stronger support? My green zone indicates my personal (FIB) highest probability of support. KEYNOTE: This is NFP DAY!!, make sure you check your calendar before each session always! I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
by ANROC
Bearish Momentum Continues: AUD/USD Heading South – Are You In?Based on the AUD/USD charts, let's dive into a quick technical breakdown to see where the opportunities lie. Daily: We’re seeing AUD/USD in a strong downtrend, pressing into the lower levels near daily support at 0.6557. The daily candles are riding below both the 21 EMA and 8 EMA, which is further confirming bearish momentum. If sellers continue to drive price lower, our next solid support level to watch is down around 0.6481 and, eventually, 0.6445, a key weekly level. Given that prices have respected the weekly resistance level around 0.6677 previously, it’s clear that the sellers are holding control right now. Intraday Setup: The 4-hour and 2-hour charts both reveal a bearish bias as well, with price rejecting from the 8 EMA and dipping below minor support levels. On the 4-hour, any retracement back to around 0.6600 (which would be near the 8 EMA) could provide an ideal entry for those looking to join the downtrend. A break below 0.6557 with bearish volume could trigger further momentum to the downside. For a potential trade setup, I’m watching for price to retest around 0.6600-0.6610 for an optimal short entry, with targets down at 0.6557 and 0.6481. Keeping a tight stop above 0.6632 should provide a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Let’s see if price respects these zones as we approach the end of the week!
Short
by SheenaL
Lingrid | AUDUSD Possible CHANNEL Breakout: Buying OPPORTUNITY FX:AUDUSD showed bullish momentum after bouncing off the support level, following a bullish divergence at that point. The market's recent move upward, particularly after taking liquidity below the 0.65500 level, suggests a short-term shift in sentiment. I expect that the market may be forming an ABC pattern heading toward the resistance zone, which could lead to a breakout of the channel. Additionally, the TVC:DXY has formed a bearish long-tailed bar at its resistance zone and is currently showing signs of moving down. This development is likely to support further bullish movement in the AUDUSD market. My goal is resistance zone around 0.66100 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Long
by Lingrid
13
AUD/ USD ! 10/31 ! Support H4 and recoveryAUD/USD trend forecast October 31, 2024 The Australian Dollar (AUD) dipped slightly after mixed economic data from Australia and China’s PMI release on Thursday. However, hawkish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook helped support the AUD/USD pair and limited its downside. In September, Australian Retail Sales rose by 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.3% forecast and down from 0.7% in August. Quarterly, Retail Sales grew by 0.5% in Q3, recovering from a 0.3% drop in the previous quarter. in the large frame - gold price will continue to fall back to strong support and have a larger recovery. In the context of not much AUD news at the end of the year, mainly important USD data /// BUY AUD/USD : zone 0.64800 - 0.64500 SL: 0.64000 TP: 60 - 300 - 500 pips (0.69500) Safe and profitable trading
Long
by Moon-ForexAcademy
1
AUD/USDAUD/USD Analysis Technical Analysis : The AUD/USD is in a clear downtrend, with price trading below the 50 and 200 EMAs. Key support is at 0.6550, and resistance is around 0.6600. The Squeeze Momentum (SQZMOM) indicator shows red bars, signaling continued selling pressure, aligning with the overall bearish sentiment. Fundamental Analysis : Strong U.S. GDP growth of 2.8% contrasts with weaker Australian fundamentals impacted by reduced Chinese demand, adding pressure on the AUD. Trade Plan: • Entry: Short near 0.6580-0.6590 • Stop-Loss: 0.6610 • Target: 0.6500
Short
by azizy73
2
Trade Recaps: USDJPY-LONG, AUDUSD-SHORT, 30/10/2024UJ Bias Analysis: Price corrected deeper into the 1H range discount, entering a 1H OB and confluent 1-sded FVG. The deeper retracement protracted lower at London open, sweeping Tuesday's low as it mitigated the KI areas before entry confirmation was received. Grade: High Quality Valid AU Bias Analysis: Price distributed higher aggressively at London open. This distribution was misinterpreted as a protraction which was sweeping 1H TBL, where it was actually shifting structure to the upside. Price traded higher into a 4H OB, where entry confirmation was received and a short position was executed. This was an invalid trade as the shift of structure to the upside violated my trade parameters which require the entry to be in alignment with the 1H range. Grade: Invalid What I did well or could've done better: - Executed aggressively on the setups during my forecasting session despite a shorter day at work. Focus was good. - Managed the trades according to the plan. - Misread the distribution AU as a protraction, when it actually shifted 1H structure long which did not align with my trade parameters - Took a trade that violated my plan as the UJ loss closed out today, which meant I only had 1 trade I could execute on instead of 2. - I did not identify what would've lead me to be risk off on a setup and was only focusing on execution characteristics. - I had a strong bias towards Dollar strength today, which led to marrying my bias and resulted in an invalid trade.
Short
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
Looks Like Someone's Prepping for a Rocket Launch in AUD!Alright, alright, it seems like someone has seriously geared up for a rocket launch in the Australian dollar, and it’s happening in the next few days. Looks like we might get some news dropped right after everything goes down, or maybe I’m just out of the loop. A super aggressive portfolio, a Call Spread, popped up yesterday, and it looks like they’re still pouring in options today. Targets for the futures are set at 0.68-0.6825. It’s like a rocket ready to go...))
Long
by ClashChartsTeam
1
AUDUSD Buy Setup [15m]Today, we will analyze AUDUSD Specific explanations are provided for each zone and movement on the chart. If you have any opinions, feel free to share them in the comments section. Please note that this analysis is not intended as financial advice. Each individual should assume responsibility for their own trades. The purpose of this post is to provide ideas and inspiration, encouraging readers to view the chart from different perspectives. Always conduct your own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.
Long
by Biaxar