XLY trade ideas
Volatility in Consumer Discretionary driven by AMZN and TSLA.The heavy presence of AMZN and TSLA in Consumer Discretionary makes the sector more volatile. However, I don't see an issue with the trend. Buyers may view levels up to $192.55 as a buying opportunity, especially with AMZN’s high potential from its broad range of innovative ventures. Although TSLA raises some concerns, AMZN could act as a balancing force, or TSLA might follow AMZN’s lead. My price target for the fund is around $212.55, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci level, and AMZN could reach Wall Street's $220 target, which I find reasonable.
Bull markets with staples outperforming discretionaries?Well history says yes, as it has happened before
History also says that the times it happened it lasted for 10 to 16 months, and this time it has lasted for 11 months
The key here is that normally, when the $XLY/ AMEX:XLP ratio goes up then the SP:SPX goes up too, but this does not mean that the SP:SPX cannot continue its uptrend without the other going up
Sector rotation is the blood of bull market's heart.
XLY Weekly ChartIt's crazy how this sector hasn't fully recovered from its fall in 2021. Some of the laggards in the top 10 are TSLA, NKE, SBUX. The other 6 companies have have recovered pretty well from their 2021 drops in price, and some have gone past to make new all times highs. I'm bias about this sector simply because it makes a large percentage of my personal portfolio. If we looking at the chart it has recovered to its 61.8 fibonacci level. I believe the trend will continue to the upside.
XLY: Targets 220-230 by Year EndThe bullish pattern indicates a potential upward movement for XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund) towards the target zone of 220-230 by the year's end.
S&P500 Sector ReviewDiscussing all the sectors of the S&P500 sectors. Looking for capital rotation trades.
DJT
XLB
XLC
XLE
XLF
XLI
XLK
XLP
XLRE
XLU
XLV
XLY
XLY is ready to risePrice has been in a trading range for a year and has broke out and passed the throwback test and is ready to move up
The End of a Tesla Era! Tesla missed on earnings. Huge decline for this leading EV stock.
Tesla was already getting oversold on the daily chart, & now with this decline its a salavating opportunity for day traders.
I still think the true swing trade level is a bit lower from here. This weekly close will tell us more.
We have included an analysis of the XLY sector (Consumer Discretionary). We discuss 3 signals that have only ever happened over a 25 year period. The weekly Golden Cross.
Often this Weekly Golden cross is bullish long term but historically weak price follows in the short term.
XLY Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is not participating in the recent market rally. There was a failed breakout in December and prices have underperformed the SP-500. A break below the 171.13 area may find a lack of support until the high-volume area (159-162 area)
$XLY v $XLP: Discretionary may underperformLooking for consumer discretionary to underperform here at least in the near term, we may end up oscillating around this area.
XLY/XLPRatio breaking down at key level. Hard to be bullish stocks with staples outperforming discretionary imo.
XLY/XLPThis key ratio in determining bullishness (imo) is looking at a bearish divergence at a key resistance level. Bull run is over until this ratio resolves the rsi divergence and gets above that 2.38 level, imo.
XLY bullish Moving Average CrossoverThe last time the 7 daily MA & 20 Daily MA crossed over the XLY SECTOR went on a massive +20% run.
Will this happen again?
The sector does have bullish momentum to the upside.
XLY Technical BreakoutXLY has seen a daily chart breakout today with the strength in Tesla & Amazon.
Let the melt up begin!
XLYXLY
Sector - Consumer Discretionary
Top Stocks on Sector - AMZN, TSLA, HD, MCD, NKE (and more)
The sector started its decline already from the last peak, as we can see the market has started the correction that we have all been waiting for (already long past the start) and xly will see the first significant damage according to how it looks at the moment, the probability of further declines is higher than the continuation of the current bank increases, so I am short with Not an extreme goal.
Good luck - see you on the other side, let me know I'm Guy from StockBrothers Trading College and with us? We reach profitability!
Fractal analysisThis parallel channel can only be observed on the log scale. Here I overlaid the historical pattern in orange from the recovery after the Great Financial Crisis. There is good alignment at the moment.
XLY: Pullback to 100 Weekly Moving AverageA pullback to the 100 Weekly mA will likely be bought up since this chart has had a technical breakout of a larger pattern.
I expect momentum buyers to try and push this higher after dips.
XLY ETF - Strong Bullish Pattern - Price Target $320XLY is one of the best consumer discretionary ETF (holdings include – Amazon, Tesla, Nike, etc.) you can buy. The ETF is showing a significant accumulation and will move higher. The price target is $320 by 2025.
$XLE bottomed and looking to move higherAMEX:XLE discretionary ETF showing bottoming and reversal after a few months of decline. Positive = bullish.
XLY WCA - Inv H&SSector: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund
Ticker: XLY
Exchange: NYSE Arca
Industry: Exchange-Traded Fund
Introduction:
Welcome to our weekly technical analysis. Today, we're looking at the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY), listed on the NYSE Arca exchange. The weekly chart is currently exhibiting an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, suggesting a potential bullish reversal.
Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern:
An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is typically seen during periods of market consolidation following a downtrend. It signals a potential reversal, characterized by three troughs, with the central one (the head) being the deepest, and the two on the sides (the shoulders) being shallower and roughly equal in depth.
Analysis:
Previously, the XLY sector was in a clear downward trend, as represented by the blue diagonal resistance. However, the emergence of an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern during the consolidation phase suggests a potential bullish reversal. Impressively, the right shoulder is higher than the left shoulder, adding to the bullish sentiment.
Furthermore, the price has broken above the 200 EMA and the horizontal resistance at 153.40, reinforcing the bullish environment. The current consolidation at this previous resistance level, indicated by a dragonfly doji, may solidify the breakout. However, confirmation will only come with the closure of the current candle.
Should the breakout hold, the price target is set at $177, indicating a potential upside of approximately 16.7%.
Conclusion:
The weekly chart of the XLY sector reveals an intriguing setup in the form of an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. This may signal profitable trading opportunities in stocks within this sector over the coming weeks.
As always, this analysis should be used as part of your overall market research and risk management strategy, and not as direct trading advice. Remember, trading carries risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
If you found this analysis helpful, please consider liking, sharing, and following for more insights. Wishing you profitable trading!
Best regards,
Karim Subhieh
$XLY 4H timeframe (uptrend)AMEX:XLY
4H timeframe
Uptrend channel (retracing 28th December 2022 lows & 2d February highs)
valid as long as it can hold 143.85$, loss of 146.46 is a big warning.
In order to spot the potential next targets, I retraced 1st December 2022 highs to 28th December 2022 lows and generated Fibonacci extensions (same principle as for channels). this is the logical retracement I decided to rely on and this is the next logical path: 0>1>1.272 or 1.618> 1.272 or 1 bounce on any of these ones is the confirmation for more upside.
valid as long as it can hold 147.32$ or reclaim it really quick (one or max 2 sessions)
$XLY Consumer Discretionary AMEX:XLY
Top 10 holdings:
Amazon.com, Inc.24.65%
Tesla, Inc.13.65%
Home Depot, Inc.8.97%
McDonald's Corporation4.71%
NIKE, Inc. Class B4.55%
Starbucks Corporation3.91%
Lowe's Companies, Inc.3.88%
Booking Holdings Inc.3.27%
TJX Companies Inc2.92%
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.1.88%
Top 10 Sectors
Retail Trade49.52%
Consumer Services21.77%
Consumer Durables20.56%
Consumer Non-Durables4.93%
Producer Manufacturing1.25%
Distribution Services1.18%
Electronic Technology0.51%
Non-Energy Minerals0.16%
ETF/Mutual Fund or Others0.12%
2021 ATH Anchored VWAP (orange)
2022 August highs Anchored VWAP (green)
Currently trading above: 50DMA, 100DMA, 200DMA
2021-2022 Downtrend channel broke (0 resistance line), breach of 0 trendline (resistance) tends to push the price to -0.272 or -0.618 for more extended move before bouncing back and retest 0 trendline. It did it perfectly: broke 0, hit -0.272, bounced back to 0, before climbing toward -0.618. Each breached channel turns into resistance (Principle of Polarity).
XLY set to decline
* Failed 2u on quarterly; still time to go outside quarter
* Failed 2u on monthly; out of time to go outside, but negative momentum
* Clear rejection of bearish trendline on weekly chart. No real support until it falls to 127 (currently 143.66)
* Daily chart shows bulls mounted one more challenge to the trendline but that failed even harder. “If markets try to do something twice, it usually then tries the opposite” (I think this is an Al Brooks quote)
I am STRONG BEARISH on this
