XLE reached the supportBullish move soon. It reached the support line. The previous historical resistance line.
XLE trade ideas
May Market Outlook, Sectors Rotation, Relative Strength AnalysisSince February, the commodities asset class has surged ahead, overshadowing the S&P 500's faltering performance. This notable shift in market dynamics underscores the resilience and strength exhibited by commodities during this period.
Of particular interest are the XLE and XLU sectors, which have emerged as frontrunners since early March. This transition coincided with the decline in momentum of previously dominant sectors like XLK and SMH (refer to Fig. 2). Notably, XLE and XLU, characterized as growth defensive sectors, have thrived amidst market downturns. Investing in commodities and energy/utility sectors during these phases could have yielded significant profits, with select energy stocks boasting returns exceeding 25%, while the S&P 500 experienced an approximate 10% decline.
Looking ahead to May, it's anticipated that XLE and XLU will maintain their market leadership, albeit with a slight loss in momentum. However, investors are advised to remain vigilant as these sectors may soon witness a change in dynamics. It's crucial to employ stop limit orders to safeguard profits in such volatile conditions.
Following the current trajectory, XLY, XLRE, and XLF are poised to emerge as significant players in the market cycle (refer to Fig. 3&4). However, it's important to note that these sectors are susceptible to rapid momentum shifts, particularly when XLK and XLC regain momentum.
Looking towards June, indications suggest that XLK and XLC will likely regain prominence in the market. For buy-and-hold investors, this presents an opportune moment to consider purchasing assets during market dips.
Considering these market dynamics, my top investment picks are (TSLA), (GOOG), (AAPL), (ORCL), and Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO). These companies demonstrate strong growth potential, especially when timed strategically to align with sector rotation leadership shifts.
XLE could be inverted Cup-Handle - Possible trapTemporary breakout may turn into inverted cup so careful.
Wait for clear breakouts, will keep you posted.
Possible temporary small break at 95.60
Possible consolidation at 97
Spy / Oil / Natural Gas - Market Analysis CPI comes in hotter than consensus.
IWM slaughtered / QQQ under pressure / SPY closes negative.
Yields & Dollar ripping.
Oil ripping / Natural Gas selloff.
Are we entering a new reflation trend?
Rotae out of Tech (XLK) into Oils (XLE) for longer term I'm very confident that for long term real money investors (or long time horizon long/short) a switch/rotation now from tech stonks into oils will pay off massively over the next 1 to 2 years (100% relative basis)
XLE Uptrend intact?XLE Uptrend intact? Energy ETF is showing a clear uptrend for the last few months. let's see how this trend evolves
XLE/SPY Relative ratio long termXLE/SPY Relative ratio long term, now at 2008 levels, still looks good on short term daily charts
XLE is a solid buy here and now!This chart looks very solid in my opinion...a buy in my book and shows that we should see a very strong move up over the next few months.
XLE - 5th wave starting?It's been a long correction for the energy sector but if we see a breakout here it might lend weight to my argument that XLE has indeed started a 5th wave according to EW theory.
XLE Monthly ChartI know this monthly candle stick isn't finished, so this will be an important week for the energy sector. This is crazy, so back in 2008 we made a high at 91.36 right. Then we had a false breakout in 2014. It failed to breakout in 2022, 2023, so is this the year for XLE to finally breakout from this level? We have an ascending triangle forming as well. What's y'all opinion on the XLE sector.
#energy $XLE follows through higher, potential 5% move in play#energy AMEX:XLE follows through higher, keeps reversing on the monthly, quarterly target 92.56 (4.8% higher) for the outside candle to complete.
#TheStrat
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Opened (IRA): XLE April 19th 88 Covered Call... for a 85.43 debit.
Comments: Looking to attempt to grab the March dividend, which has been averaging around .80 over the past four distributions.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 85.43
Max Profit: 2.57 ($257)
ROC at Max (ex. dividend): 3.01%
ROC at Max (w/dividend): 3.94% (assuming an .80 distribution)
ROC at 50% Max (ex. dividend): 1.50%
ROC at 50% Max (w/dividend): 2.44% (assuming an .80 distribution)
Energy will break all time highMomentum is extremely strong that has already broken above previous high in RSI. It will make an all time high. Seasonality also favors energy into June. Meanwhile, DXY is beginning its wave 3, which will make energy and metals fly.
XLE coming out of year-long baseXLE and oil stocks have been consolidating since 2022 and has finished the 3-wave correction and is moving out of this long term base. Oil futures also has bottomed. Another confirmation is that all these instruments are holding above the moving averages.
XLE idea update. Bullish stillVery confident in this idea. Liquidity was hit, nice pattern on the weekly, bought at support with confirmation. I would wish for nothing more on a setup other than what XLE has provided me with
LONG XLE AGAIN AND AGAINIf you look at my profile I have been steadily predicting XLE. This is another idea that I am posting publicly for you guys to profit from. It should be taken into consideration how the Markets will open on Monday. If they open normally without a crazy gap this trade should be executed, otherwise my idea is canceled. Anyway, I will update this idea on Monday for more clarity.
Enjoy the weekend!
Energy sector coming backLooks like energy stocks that are coming back. Just in time when technology stocks are about to correct. I just opened positions on SLB and XOM, but there are others like CVX, EOG or XLE index that works the same way. These stocks are correlated with oil price that also appears to start turning around.
XLE Put credit spread exp Feb 23, 2024XLE came down into, touched and wicked the weekly close
of the week 12/04/2023 yesterday.
I did not have an alert set so I missed the first opportunity.
It wicked it on the daily chart.
So this morning around 10 I saw it was near the lows of yesterday again.
and the 2 weekly levels around 81 also held price in mid Dec 2023.
I sold the 80 Put strike at 3 wide down to 77.
The chart has some 5min FVGs inside the 81 range in Pink bands
And the Daily levels in Blue with a final weekly level at 77.
So yes, price could reenter below 81, but that May-July 2023 price
action looks like a balanced price range from 77-81 to me.
Which is why I sold 80.
#### Sell to Open
Symbol XLE
Open Date 1/9/2024
Put or Call Put
Expiry Date 2/23/2024
Short Strike 80
Long Strike 77
Price to Open 0.62
Min Width Multiple 6
Risk Ratio 3.84
Return on Risk 26.1%
Opening DTE 45
1 Day ROI% 0.58%
Max Annual ROI % 211.3%
Buyback to Close
Open to Roll
Closing % Cost on Opening Credit
Net Roll % on Opening Credit
Closing Date
Closing Price
Closed Margin ROI %
Closed Annual ROI %
Energy SectorNot all breakout lines are created equal!
A chart trader must understand the implications of details such as its length and angle.
Time frame needs to also be weighed in.
A scientific process where proper odds can be established on the anticipated possible outcomes.
#energy
#XLE broken above resistance and major volume shelf - more to goXLE ETF has broken above both a major resistance level (horizontal and channel) as well as a major volume shelf. In addition it's come off a divergent low which has propelled it higher. I think energy names have some legs here..
XLE Bull Put spread at intraday pullback after-1 sig testSymbol XLE
Open Date 11/6/2023
Bear Call or Bull Put Put
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 80
Long Strike 78
Price to Open 0.30
Min Width Multiple 4
Risk Ratio 5.67
Return on Risk 17.6%
Opening DTE 46
1 Day ROI% 0.38%
Max Annual ROI % 140.0%
Longer term is bullish on XLE. Has engaged -1 sig Buying Oct 5 which would have been the best time and place to sell puts.
Engaged again 10/26 through 10/30 and pushed away.
And it pushed up to the VWAP of the bullish model.
I would strictly say that the -1 sig has been engaged 6 days already, but the fact that it pushed up to the VWAP and sold off tells me that the buying algo is still in play.
Sold Puts at the 80 strike below -2 sig on the bullish model.
Overall, I do think XLE goes higher into the Bearish +1 sig near 89 and gives time for the 80 puts 46 DTE to die.
Decent entry at .30 but the high trade of the day was .34.
This was just above the 15 min chart -1 sig low which held the session beautifully.
I don't expect that I could've gotten .34, but perhaps .32 was possible AT the 15min chart -1 sig low.
If XLE pushes in the next few days down past 84 I will roll further out, and maybe 1 or 2 down.
If XLE eats time and rallies up to 89 I will do nothing.
If XLE gets a break above 89 and attacks 89.25 I will consider selling Calls at the 94 strike.
SPY is steady today and sustaining it's hard Bull rally from last week, so XLE is not in sync with it.
