XBI falling wedgeNice walling wedge, already broken out. Looks overall constructive with the RSI and MACD. Coming off 50WMA
XBI trade ideas
XBI rebound breakoutXBI had been in a bear market for months. It tested support at 127.50 multiple times. It finally broke out of it's descending trendline yesterday and back tested it today and found support.
It should pullback a little from the 20SMA on the daily then head higher. Good opportunity to buy on the pullback.
Should hit some resistance around 139.50 which is where the 50SMA on the daily should be.
If it can break those MAs then the next resistance level should be 149.
XBI - Rise of Biotech looks to be comingXBI - the biotech ETF, looks to have completed a large W2 pullback and is now basing for the W3 run. If correct, this looks to be making run for 191 within about 4 months (duration of the W1)
Hourly positive MACD divergenceShowing bull divergence with stochastic at bottom of range turning up
Opening (IRA): XBI May 21st 120 Short Put... for a 2.17/contract credit.
Notes: 30-day at >35% at 40.1%. Selling the 16 delta here. 1.84% ROC at max as a function of notional risk. As usual, will take profit on approaching worthless or, if in the money at expiry, take assignment and sell call against.
OPENING (IRA): XBI MARCH 19TH 135 SHORT PUT... for a 2.11/contract credit.
Notes: With 30-day at 37.5% and expiry-specific at 38.3%, selling a 16 delta in the March cycle (52 days). 1.59% ROC at max as a function of notional risk.
XBI High Conviction ReversalThe Biotech is oversold and is looking to revert back to mean. It is currently at its 180 SMA and ended Friday green forming a hammer candle pointing to an upwards move.
Trade Ideas:
Shares long between 136-140 to 145, 150, 160+ price targets. Bullish.
Short Put at 115 expiring 4/16 for $1.15 Credit. $1150 BPE is a little pricy, but still a decent max ROC of 10% but has a 90% POP. Neutral to Bullish.
Short Strangle 115-160 expiring 4/16 for $2.3 Credit. $1400 BPE, 20 max ROC and 78% POP.
XBI Channel Trend AnalysisJust for fun Biotech trending with channels relative to XBI. Should normally continue Current 1Yr Channel (white) and entering Channel 'B' after been solidly rejected at top of it.
XBI Support on daily, may decide next few weeks (ichimoku)We experienced a very large pull back the past few days and it is reaching the previous high. This may serve as a support on the daily chart.
Looking at the ichimoku, there have been two points recently that the chikou span struggled to cross through the price to signal a bearish sentiment. If this pushes through it may be possible that we are more in the bearish territory and looking for entries on shorts would be best.
Projecting the trend to the cloud, we can also see that the price has been decreasing faster than the projected forecast of the cloud. This may signal a very strong bearish sentiment.
If the chikou span crosses the price and the price crosses the support, I would look into short entries.
If the support holds, I am expecting to go back to the recent highs for atleast a 10% return.
XBI - BTD after 10% PB .786 FIB Target 152-156We've just had a 10% correction and biotech is about to explode with all of the MRNA applications that will expand after the COVID vaccine research (see also AGTC with new vision therapies).
I bought today and will add if we dip in the $152-156 range looking for a bounce on the 50 Day MA and a move higher shortly thereafter.
Sold XBI near the top after a 25% gain, reentered today.
*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR*
XBI - Biotech may be running out of fuelIn January 2021, you a quick selloff in XBI caused RSI to dip below 20 while directional selling volume also spiked over 50 (yellow rings). This "oversold" condition led to a quick sharp up move (yellow arrow, RSI crossed up over red line), then consolidation before a prolonged move higher.
Now I am looking at a peak in RSI and a spike in directional buying volume (pink rings). I like swing puts here, and there are two trades you can plan. If I buy swing puts now (2/19 strike) I would close them on a drop as RSI crosses below the green line - IV should increase and improve my return. Then I will look for another swing put trade setup if XBI indicates a greater move lower on daily/60m timeframes.
OPENING (IRA): XBI FEBRUARY 19TH 125 SHORT PUT... for a 2.07 credit.
Notes: With 30-day at 39.2% and expiry-specific at 38.7%, selling a little bit of premium in biotech. Will run to approaching worthless/take assignment, sell call against if assigned. 1.68% ROC as a function of notional risk.
Biotech etf year in review: O$92.76 H$152.70 L$62.94 C <=> $144Biotech etf year in review:
O $92.76
H $152.70
L $62.94
C <=> $144
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Small incremental steps work : If you double a penny a day for a month it = $5,368,709. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, risk management
Beware of analysts motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
www.tradingview.com
Ultimate LONG - The Biotech Bubble Bubbles are natural & good until everybody talks about it.
Didn't hear of anyone talking about it, so its a good time to make call - THE NEXT BUBBLE WILL BE IN BIOTECH (if we IGNORE EV and SPAC's ofcourse)
My bet is:
1. small cap bios could double-tripple from here.
2. heavy names could get +50%
Too much money, to few shares & good companies.
OPENING (IRA): XBI NOV/DEC/JAN 87/90/93 SHORT PUT LADDER... for a 5.91 credit in total.
Notes: Going where the volatility is ... . 30-day greater than 35% (39.8%) with the November at-the-money short straddle paying 13.1% of where the stock is currently trading.
This isn't usually an IRA play I go for, since you won't get paid to wait if you get assigned shares (the yield is absolutely paltry at .10%). However, I'm pretty much in all the plays or in a closely correlated play at the top of the exchange-traded-fund board: XOP (56.2%) (play on in XLE); GDXJ (51.1%) (plays on in SLV and GLD); SLV (47.7%); EWZ (47.5%); GDX (42.9%) (plays on in SLV/GLD); XLE (42.6%), and SMH (39.6%) (no play on).
