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VNQ trade ideas

Complete annihilation of the United States: Housing & Free Stuff"Defund the police" millions say. "Defund the government" 3 and a half people say. Free stuff for everybody! A republican congress might veto the budget but it will still end up huge, just not as huge. A family or a business, when they are broke or out of money, they will reduce spending, they will only buy essentials. The government does the opposite. The harsher the times, the more it spends. If the government was a family which house just burned down and lost their jobs, and had nothing left, this is what they would do: - Take 6 digits loans to buy a new car, and a second one. - Go on vacations - Hire a private tutor for their kids - Eat at expensive restaurants and waste - Go on shooping sprees out of boredom, buy useless stuff that will end up in the trash can Not even exagerating. The reason people don't all lose their minds is because it is slightly abstract, just enough for them to not see what's going on. Marxist students fight this battle to get more money spent on "learnding". Did you know the USA have 1 of the highest spending per student? Only Switzerland spends slightly more (less than 10%), Norway used to spend more but now spends significantly less, and the only country to really spend more is Luxembourg which spends around 60% more. USA GDP per capita: $63,000 Norway GDP per capita: $82,000 Switzerland GDP per capita: $83,000 Luxembourg GDP per capita: $117,000 (2018 numbers) Switzerland spends slightly more per student or the same and it has a 32% bigger GDP per person. Luxembourg spends ~60% more but it has twice the GDP per person! Oh and fun fact, more people go to university in the USA than in those countries, Norway too. "Super socialist" Norway sends less people to university, and spends something like 30% less than the USA, all while having a much higher GDP per capita, and let's not talk about a higher surplus lmao biggest wealth fund in the world while the USA have a gigantic black hole in their finances. They're really running the country in the worse way possible. Another fun fact, did you know that "poor kids" that went to university used to pay for it by taking summer jobs? And then government stepped in to get votes, guarenteed loans, spent massive amounts, and all this did was cause people to require a diploma to flip burgers, and of course university said "great, we can afford this we wanted and that and this" price went way up. All this pointless crap they are learning, apart from lawyers doctors some engineers, it's useless. It is a bad investment. If it was not it would reflect in the economy, for example there would be less inequality not more. And their voters of course, they ask for more of the stupid stuff that does not work! "We want more of these things that caused problems"! Ye I bet their universities don't teach them that, no conflict of interest here. "You must protest to get more money to pay us". In particular the student age group - which happens to be the age group that falls the most for phishing scams by far, pure coincidence - they are fighting with all they have to get more money for universities, so professors can buy diamond teeth. The next president, no matter who he is, will continue those disastrous policies, and run the country to the ground. Housing bubble, student loan bubble, spending & bond bubble, stock market bubble. The only hope is deflation. But they want to fight that no matter what "infinity QE". Big brains. There is a report on government budget, for 20 or 30 years they have been copy pasting the same block of text, it's so funny, in which they say that the current policies are unsustainable xd The top 0.01 percent, 16,000 families, had annual income of say $30 million, and wealth of maybe $400 million. So the total is 500 billion a year in earnings pre tax, and a total wealth of $6 trillion. Can't really tax that wealth thought, how would they do it, confiscate their stocks and make a sale to foreign nations to get 20% out over 5 years? (since selling crashes the market). In 2018, the total personal income earned in the United States was $17.6 trillion. Federal tax revenues are around 3.5 trillion for the past few years with income making almost $2T. State taxes amount to $1T. How can they get out of this university scam? They send half of the population to university, and they get brainwashed by universities that want more money. How to break the cycle? There might be more riots in the next 2 years, I noted some Minneapolis property prices to compare with later on. Can't short sell afaik sadly. The country is just going to implode in the next few years. West Europe that isn't in the same situation at all will be influenced because of the country big octopus arms, and probably have lots of demands to officials, and protests, and riots, regardless of a totally different situation, due to sheep mentality and low IQ. In the 30s all of Europe countries (or most maybe) nationalised big companies, and it stayed like this with the exception of the NAZI (that were planning to nationalise more), they privatized, it seemed to work for them since they conquered all of Europe. There is not a ton of info on this, of course every one is drooling and studying Hitler or the war, but there is nearly no interest for NAZI policies, or the conditions that led to their elections or to the war... Either president will continue the same disastrous policies as I said, spend spend spend, bail out and/or nationalise, the only 2 outcomes I see will be either go communist and broke and default and become Argentina (Venezuela to be fair), or go full NAZI and deport. In 1930 to 1932 Germany zentrum chancellor Heinrich Brüning which was a financial expert made deflationary policies, with big tax hikes and reducing spending, probably was too violent (they always go extreme about everything) and came too late. He had no majority but Hindenburg used emergency powers to make him chancellor. Germany was in trouble before the depression, in particular thanks to the galaxy brain versailles treaty. He tried to pass a bill to make a necessary reform of the Reich finances, which was rejected by the SPD & KPD & some NSDAP members. Other Europe countries ponzi'd germany, they abandonned gold and devalued their currency while germany did not (and so got scammed). Brüning had no majority and was no able to do what he wanted. So he tried to dissolve the Reichtag. 1930, early one, before Brüning was able to pass his bills, the NAZI party gained 18% seats which was huge, and SPD and KPD had broken up around that time, with later on the KPD Antifa arm fighting the SPD which they now called traitors and hated. Brüning knew deflation would temporarly worsen the economy but then fix it. It was the cure with a short term negative effect. Problem was, it came too late, and germans were already pissed. Before he started the program the NSDAP had alreayd gotten big (from less than 3% to 18.25%). And with deflation, debt gets worse. What countries want to do is inflate the debt away. In 1932 Brüning resigned because his policies of giving land for free to unemployed workers made Hidenburg & prussian landlords angry, so the president stopped signing emergency decrees for him. To fight the NAZI he tried to restore monarchy, and had a majority but Hinderburg would only accept if Emperor Wilhelm II was called back from exile, but foreign nations & socdems went "no not him". After Brüning, Franz von Papen (independant centre/conservative) lifted the ban on the NAZI SA which had been placed in early 1932 because of riots (hmmmm), can't find more about the riots, history forgot... After the ban was lifted thought there were plenty of violent riots involving antifa (hmmmmm), the police (oooooooh), the SS & SA (interesting). Oh, did I mention the SA & Antifa considered themselves revolutionary (Germany had just dropped its monarchy)? Well anyway, Hinderburg died, and then Hitler became Reich Cancellor and Reich president. Hitler, to improve the economy, privatized, placed more tariffs on imports (previous chancellors had started it he continued), looted jews gold, bullied private companies to give more jobs & raise wages, suspended the gold standard, brought parental planning, free healthcare, education standards, gave generous subsidies for agriculture and small businesses, enforced capital controls, controlled commodity prices, decided what the interest rates would be, well basically from what history books say he ran the country like "capitalist" countries run their countries today. Most of the recovery if not all, came from looting jews & giving their stuff to "germans", and also just the economy healing itself over time. And then he went to war, and ran bigger and bigger deficits, and raised taxes on everyone, and lost. Germany adopted a free market approach (em west germany of course) in 1948, abolishing price controls, to cut it short undoing Hitler economics. Consumer goods reappeared literally overnight on the open market. People went back to work since what they would get paid would actually be worth something. "By the mid-1950s, West Germany had risen from the ashes to become Western Europe’s economic powerhouse. The contrast with Britain, which moved in a socialist direction after the war and didn’t abolish rationing until 1954, was stark." Germany progressively & slowly went back towards more of a control economy since then. This depression has the potential to be the greatest, rivalled only by the great depression of the late middle ages, which was spiced by the black death, you know the thing that decimated half of Europe population. "We have to save lives". Idiots. The industrial era will end like the middle ages ended back then. I wonder what caused the giga depression of the 14th century? Oh right, decline of the church, big state control, massive spending, huge taxes in particular on the rich, and currency debasement. Sigh.
AMEX:VNQ
by MrRenev
5
SHORT VNQ, GET OUT WHILE YOU CANI have been tracking this ETF for a long period of time. We just broke one-year resistance and clear evidence on the fib retracement (specifically level 0.5) shows that the price was weakening. Technicals aside, there is no reason as to why this should move upwards. This pandemic has taken out firms with high leverage, left more than 25 million Americans jobless, and monetary policy hasn't been as effective because people haven't been going out. Not only that, but the government will also now have to think twice about their spending, as our debt has dramatically increased this year accompanied by a significant drop in tax revenue. Consumers have less income and are looking towards their savings to live through this pandemic. As we move to reopen, firms will look to deleverage and cut spending. This means that unemployment will most certainly not go back to its previous levels anytime soon and the average American will be in no position to take in debt in the form of a mortgage. I'd even argue to some extent that many will look to sell their homes. So how does this relate to VNQ? Home prices haven't adjusted because a decrease in supply helped remedy the decrease in demand. If you analyze active listing for the months of April, you will see that in almost every market, there has been a significantly smaller number of homes being listed. Hence, there have been fewer homes being sold at the price pre-virus. These price levels were already thought to be reaching a bubble, but with this sudden change in demand, these prices will correct most certainly. As we look to reopen, people will look to sell their houses. Realtors will push people to sell their homes. This increase in supply accompanied by the withstanding lack of demand will drive housing prices all the way down. I expect we will see these prices fall in areas with typically less demand than others first. Looking at listings in suburban areas, we are already seeing sellers change listings and drop their price, with still no buyer. It is still early to get out as prices haven't adjusted and many cities haven't reopened. Now, residential real estate accounts for 14.53% of VNQ. The problem lies in commercial real estate, 40.48% of VNQ. As said before, firms will want to deleverage and cut spending. Not only that, but offices will be dead anytime soon as many companies will want to remain online for the next quarter or two. The only downside will have to do with hospitals and clinics, but as we flatten the curve, the need for hospitals will not be any larger than the need for them a month or two ago. Regarding specialized REITs, there are going to be numbers of people that will not be able to pay rent or will find the price of rent too high in comparison to their income. All in all, all we can see is red! Hopefully, this doesn't truly occur because many will be hurt by this crash, but it is hard not to warn against the inevitable.
AMEX:VNQShort
by FrancescoChiappe
VNQ - Short1. Year - outside and down, coming back into previous years range 2. Month - inside month,, potential rev strat month to the downside. Well see if they can take it green on the week back into previous range or continue lower 3. Weekly -inside, inside week down, 2 up previous week, wasn't strong enought to stay above highs of previous week. shooter counters hammer. in force under 4. Day -rev strat day 5. 60 - 2 up, 2 down, where's the next 2? 4. Full Time Frame Continuity: Y,M, look to take the week back down, in force under 72.75 x 74.39 (would take the month up)
AMEX:VNQShort
by ArtPeirce
VNQ - Short1. Year - outside and down, coming back into previous years range 2. Month - inside month,, potential rev strat month to the downside. Well see if they can take it green on the week back into previous range or continue lower 3. Weekly -inside, inside week down, 2 up previous week, wasn't strong enought to stay above highs of previous week. shooter counters hammer. in force under 4. Day -rev strat day 5. 60 - 2 up, 2 down, where's the next 2? 4. Full Time Frame Continuity: Y,M, look to take the week back down, in force under 72.75 x 74.39 (would take the month up)
AMEX:VNQShort
by ArtPeirce
VNQ - Iron CondorThis is a study I wanted to do on strikes with abnormally high open interest and if it affects underlying price movement. VNQ has pulled back from its ATH to inside the ATB neutral zone. It also closed with a bearish engulfing candle signaling high probability of sideways to downward trend in next 30-45 days. Testing a horizontal Iron Condor strategy based on strikes with Highest Open Interest on Monthly Expirations of Dec and Jan 2020. Option Profit Calculator: opcalc.com buy 20th Dec $86.00 Put $0.43 $-43.00 (99% of Total OI) sell 20th Dec $90.00 Put $1.53 $153.00 (99% of Total OI) sell 17th Jan $90.00 Call $2.08 $208.00 (99% of Total OI) buy 17th Jan $95.00 Call $0.22 $-22.00 (95% of Total OI) Credit: $296.00 Collateral: $500.00 Maximum risk: $204 at a price of $101.67 on 20th Dec 2019 Maximum return: $187 at a price of $90 at expiry Break-evens at expiry: $92.97, $87.27 VNQ needs to stay inside the red bars for profit. Green line indicates max profit line on a daily basis until expiration.
AMEX:VNQ
by imzeeshan