Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 1st WK DEC 2024Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 1st WK DEC 2024
> BULLISH 📈 HIT
Prior Week Closed Price: 598.79
This Week Target Price: 605
Strike Price: 606.26 on DEC 4, 2024
Upper Range: 612
Lower Range: 597
SPY trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-04: Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will run into resistance in early trading and roll downward at some point after reaching resistance.
I see the markets opening much higher this morning as the SPY/QQQ are both broadly rallying overnight.
This type of GAP UP opening often leads to the identification of price resistance and a rollover topping formation where price attempts to trail downward to fill the GAP.
The concept that my SPY Cycle Patterns new this was likely many months before today's price action happens is rather unique. And this is why I love my SPY Cycle Patterns.
The is no other place where you can attempt to clearly see into the future like using my SPY Cycle Patterns.
Gold and Silver are still struggling today - but should attempt to make a rally move higher over the next 5+ trading days. Until we break above the Flag High level, Gold and Silver are trapped in a sideways price range.
Bitcoin is also trapped in a sideways price range after reaching recent highs.
As I warn in this video - be prepared for very unusual price action and events over the next 30+ days. I believe we are about to see some very unusual political and economic events play out.
Keep a healthy CASH reserve and trade small quantities right now. Better to protect cash than to risk it on unknowns right now.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Spy Short 5% Correction On the HorizonI am still very short on Spy My target is as low as 570 but can range 585 giving me an idea if we see 570 or we continue the Christmas rally!! Good Luck Traders
SPY Analysis: Will the Uptrend Hold or Consolidate? Dec. 4, 20241. Weekly Chart (W1):
* Trend: The weekly chart shows a robust uptrend with SPY staying within a well-defined ascending channel.
* Key Levels:
* Resistance: 605–610 zone, which aligns with the upper channel boundary.
* Support: Around 578–580, aligning with the lower channel boundary and 20 EMA.
* Indicators:
* MACD is strong on the weekly, showing long-term bullish momentum.
* Volume is healthy, supporting the uptrend.
* Prediction: Long-term trend remains bullish. Tomorrow’s action may contribute to a continuation of the broader uptrend, though a minor intraday pullback wouldn’t disrupt the weekly bullish structure.
2. Daily Chart (D1):
* Trend: The daily chart shows SPY is in a steady uptrend, respecting a rising channel with higher highs and higher lows.
* Key Levels:
* Resistance: Around 605–607, which aligns with the upper trendline of the channel.
* Support: At 595 and the 20 EMA, which has been a consistent dynamic support.
* Indicators:
* MACD shows positive momentum but may be slightly overextended.
* Volume suggests moderate buying interest but not overly aggressive.
* Prediction: Likely to continue testing resistance. A breakout above 605 could lead to higher moves, while consolidation or minor retracement to 595 is possible.
3. Hourly Chart (H1):
* Trend: The hourly chart shows SPY forming tighter price action near resistance, with small-bodied candles indicating indecision.
* Key Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: 604.50–605.
* Immediate Support: 600–601.
* Indicators:
* MACD on the hourly chart is flattening, signaling potential consolidation or minor pullback before another leg up.
* Volume on smaller timeframes has been decreasing slightly, suggesting traders may be waiting for a catalyst.
* Prediction: Possible consolidation between 600 and 605 before a decisive move. A break above 605 could align with the broader daily trend.
Summary for Tomorrow: Dec. 4, 2024
* SPY is positioned near resistance across multiple timeframes. While the weekly and daily charts suggest the overall trend remains bullish, the hourly chart indicates potential consolidation before another breakout.
* Bullish Scenario: If SPY breaks above 605 with volume, it could target the 610 area.
* Bearish Scenario: A pullback to 600–601 support is possible before attempting to move higher.
* Strategy:
* Day traders: Watch for a breakout above 605 or a bounce near 600.
* Swing traders: Consider the broader uptrend for potential entries on pullbacks around support levels.
This multi-timeframe analysis highlights the importance of aligning your trade entries with the prevailing trend while being cautious around key resistance levels.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a professional before making any trading decisions.
Don’t short yet!!!Not surprised if we continue at least to 608… let’s see what happens tomorrow after Powell’s speech, for the most part of December is a foolish month and the switch turns off after January 2 or third
Spy Moving up or Down Based on price action safe to say spy will head to the down side today. Fair Value gaps forming on the sell side indicates bearish price.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-3: Gap ReversalToday's Gap Reversal pattern in a Counter-Trend mode suggests the SPY & QQQ will experience an opening price GAP - followed by a reversal of trend - possibly to the upside.
I believe we need to watch how the GAP forms at the open to determine if we are likely to see an upward or downward price trend throughout the rest of the day.
My analysis suggests an upside price move is more likely than a downward price move today for the SPY/QQQ.
Gold and Silver appear ready for a liftoff. Silver appears to be attempting to break above the recent high price levels and Gold should follow along.
I believe any Gold and Silver are poised for a big rally phase - but that rally will come when the US Dollar advance stalls and pulls downard a bit.
Bitcoin is still trending in a Flagging formation - setting up the Phase #2 of a Bullish Excess Phase Peak. We need to watch for a breakdown in price - possibly sending BTCUSD down to $80k-$82k.
I urge traders to stay cautious (Still). This is not the time to be aggressive as I still believe the low liquidity in the markets will present a very real risk of a volatility event (the Anomaly Event I keep suggesting is likely).
Remember, if you can't take the lumps, stop and rethink what you are trying to trade.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY December 3, 2024AMEX:SPY December 3, 2024
15 Minutes.
No change in my view.
Oscillator divergence.
A pull back to 600 is what I am expecting by Thursday.
No Longs at the moment.
SPY Analysis: Strategic Playbook for Scalping and Swing for 12/3SPY continues to showcase strength as it nears key resistance zones. This comprehensive analysis outlines critical price action, support/resistance levels, and actionable trading strategies for both scalping and swing trading.
Technical Analysis and Price Action
1. Trend Overview:
SPY maintains a strong bullish trend, breaking out of a consolidation phase. Price action aligns with higher highs and higher lows, confirming bullish sentiment.
2. Key Support & Resistance Zones:
* Support Levels:
* Primary: $603.60 (current breakout level).
* Secondary: $600.89 (short-term support).
* Resistance Levels:
* Immediate: $604.32 (daily high).
* Strong Resistance: $606.00 (psychological barrier).
3. Liquidity Zones and Order Blocks:
* Buyers are concentrated around $600.89, indicating strong demand.
* Sellers dominate near $604.32, hinting at potential profit-taking zones.
Game Plan and Playbook
Scalping Strategy
* Entry:
* Long: Above $604.32 with confirmation of strong volume.
* Short: Below $603.60 if bearish pressure increases.
* Targets:
* Long Target: $606.00.
* Short Target: $602.00.
* Stop Loss:
* Long: $603.20 (below breakout level).
* Short: $604.00 (above breakdown level).
Swing Trading Strategy
* Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Retest of $600.89 with bullish candlestick confirmation.
* Target 1: $606.00.
* Target 2: $610.00 (extension target).
* Stop Loss: $599.00.
* Bearish Setup:
* Entry: Breakdown below $600.89 with increasing volume.
* Target 1: $597.29 (key support zone).
* Target 2: $595.00.
* Stop Loss: $601.50.
Projection: Where SPY Could Head Next
SPY is expected to test the $606.00 level if it sustains above $604.32. Failure to hold $603.60 could lead to a pullback toward $600.89 or lower. Volume will play a critical role in determining the direction.
Key Indicators to Watch
* MACD: Remains bullish, supporting upward momentum.
* RSI: Near overbought territory, suggesting caution at higher levels.
* Volume: Monitor for confirmation of breakout or breakdown.
My Thoughts and Suggestions
SPY’s bullish momentum is promising for intraday and swing trades. Scalpers should remain cautious near resistance levels, while swing traders can look for pullbacks to key support zones for entries. Patience and discipline will be crucial to avoid false breakouts.
Conclusion
SPY presents strong opportunities for traders with clear levels to monitor. Sticking to the game plan and managing risk effectively can lead to profitable trades.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately.
Opening (IRA): SPY Dec 20th 505 Covered Call... for a 501.71 debit.
Comments: Re-upping at a higher strike than the one I just took off, looking to capture an additional little increment of upmove that I missed out on.
If you wanted to be really anal about it, you could capture all of the up move over time (or capture the same increment more than once).
For example, say I just took off the November 15th 500 covered call at or near max (e.g., 499.80). I can then shop for a monied covered call to capture the next increment of movement from 499.80 up, so I'd want to get into a setup for 499.80 or less.
This would be the Jan 31st 506 covered call, currently trading for 499.72 and would ostensibly capture the move from 499.72 to 506 (assuming, naturally, a finish above 506).
In the next iteration, I would look to capture the move from 506 up, and so on, all the way until my short call was at-the-money or out-of-the-money, depending on what I was trying to do with the setup.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 - SPY Trendline TestYet another new ATH for SPY today. Still flat on the session. It's been some pretty brutal chop for the last few hours. It remains to be seen if SPY will be able to break above this trendline or not. If it can, I'll be looking for dips and retests for longs.
Otherwise, downside target is $600 and then $596 if it keeps going. Hard to pick an upside target with blue skies like this so will be looking to take profits when I get them. Getting a long near $600 seems ideal.
Trump Trade 2016 vs 2024 - SPYLooking at Trump 2016 election compared to 2024 via SPY
I think this dip gets bought and we go higher until Thanksgiving.
Can see the possibility of making another new high in December and then sorta trend there until Inauguration Day.
SPY on the Verge: Scalping and Swing Strategies for Dec 2SPY has been showing a strong recovery trend, climbing steadily within a well-defined ascending channel on the hourly chart. This analysis aims to provide actionable insights for scalpers and swing traders, focusing on critical levels, potential liquidity zones, and price action patterns to watch for the week ahead.
Technical Analysis Overview:
* Trend: The SPY is currently trading within an ascending channel, indicating bullish momentum with potential pullbacks.
* Support Levels:
* Immediate support at $601.33, aligned with the EMA and a key pivot zone.
* Stronger support at $597.29, marking the lower boundary of the channel.
* Resistance Levels:
* Immediate resistance at $603.35, a key liquidity zone.
* Next major resistance at $606, near the top of the channel.
* Liquidity Zones:
* Watch for liquidity absorption between $602.70–$603.35 as this is a high-traffic area for short-term traders.
* A break above $603.35 could trigger momentum buying toward $606.
* Indicators:
* MACD is showing bullish crossover momentum.
* Volume is steady but needs an uptick for confirmation on breakouts.
Game Plan for Scalpers:
1. Entry:
* Look for long entries near $601.33, targeting $603.35 with tight stop-loss at $600.50.
* A breakout above $603.35 provides a scalp opportunity up to $606.
2. Exit:
* Close partial positions at resistance zones for safety and trail stop-loss.
Game Plan for Swing Traders:
1. Bullish Scenario:
* Enter on pullbacks to $597–$598 if the level holds with strong buying pressure.
* Target $606, with a stop-loss below $596.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* If SPY breaks below $597, consider shorting toward $593 as the next support level.
* Stop-loss for short trades above $599.50.
My Thoughts:
The SPY’s momentum suggests a bullish bias, but the upper channel boundary near $606 could act as resistance in the short term. For scalpers, it’s all about quick reactions around the pivot zones, while swing traders need to watch for pullbacks to confirm support levels. Overall, patience and volume confirmation are key to avoiding false breakouts.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and trade responsibly.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-2: Tmp Bottom PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to move a bit higher after finding support in early trading.
The one BIG event over the past 5+ trading days is the SPY rallying above the Ultimate High level - breaking into a confirmed Bullish price trend.
This is part of what I'm trying to teach you: the patterns, techniques, thinking, and logic behind my decisions are based on mechanical price structures/processes. Once you understand the structures and price patterns, it is simple to try to understand.
Fibonacci Price Theory teaches you to follow price as the ultimate indicator - measuring and marking ultimate, unique, and standout highs/lows as trigger points.
AnchorBar theory teaches us to watch for breakaway or breakdown bars as precise indications of price trend direction/momentum.
The Excess Phase Peak patterns represent a more nuanced price pattern that can assist us in determining the current "phase" of the markets and how we can expect prices to react to that phase.
If you understand these three concepts, I believe you, as a trader, can unlock any price action and determine what type of trend we are currently in for any symbol/interval and where your opportunity lies for potential trades.
I will continue to delve further into trading and teaching techniques to reinforce these techniques in the future.
Stay cautious as the markets are still struggling to find a post-election trend.
The Anomaly Event is still likely, but the probability of such an event has fallen to about 30-40% overall.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P: Weekly Recap and OutlookLast week, the market opened with a gap up that was quickly filled, after which price hovered near the previous all-time high. Bolstered by new economic data, which delivered no negative surprises, bulls pushed the price out of the trading range, establishing a new all-time high.
While this is undoubtedly a positive development that reinforces the bullish thesis, a few warning signs warrant closer attention:
1. Low Breakout Volume: The breakout occurred on significantly low volume. While volume is less critical in indices and ETFs compared to individual stocks, observing below-average volume during such an important event raises concerns about the breakout’s sustainability.
2. Relative Weakness in the Tech Sector (XLK): This deviation signals hesitancy among growth investors, which could potentially ripple through to other market participants.
Additionally, concerns highlighted in my previous review remain unresolved and continue to be relevant.
At this stage, there is no concrete evidence of a sentiment shift or technical signals pointing to a broad trend reversal. However, there is a growing impression that the rally may be nearing temporary exhaustion, which could lead to a significant pullback.
Key Focus for the Upcoming Week
Investors will be closely watching the employment data, which has already hinted at labor market weakness. If new data further support this trend, it could heighten bearish sentiment.
Price action this week will likely provide important clues:
• Bullish Confirmation: If the breakout is followed by a swift continuation, this will confirm buyers’ conviction and overall market strength.
• Bearish Signals: Conversely, if the price pulls back below 600 or oscillates indecisively around this level, it may signal uncertainty among buyers, creating an opportunity for short sellers to capitalize.
Aiming for SPY: Targeting Continued Upside Next Week- Recent Performance: The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) has demonstrated impressive
performance lately, achieving multiple all-time highs and closing above
critical levels. Currently priced at $602.55, SPY remains significantly
positioned above major moving averages, reflecting strong bullish momentum
and resilience despite market fluctuations. The index recently held above
the support level of $601, reinforcing positive market sentiment across the
board.
- Key Insights: Traders should approach SPY with a bullish bias in the near-term
outlook. The strength in macroeconomic indicators and strong earnings from
major corporations suggests potential for continued gains. Monitoring key
support and resistance levels will be critical for determining potential
entry points and assessing risk as the market evolves.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts project that SPY's bullish trend is likely to
persist, supported by prevailing investor confidence and encouraging
economic signals. A consensus among experts recommends vigilance around key
price levels, enabling traders to capitalize on upward movements while
managing risks effectively. Market sentiment remains robust, bolstered by
positive narratives surrounding recovery and growth in various sectors.
- Price Targets:
- Next week targets:
- T1: $605.00
- T2: $610.48
- Stop levels:
- S1: $601.00
- S2: $594.62
- News Impact: The ongoing positive sentiment for SPY can be attributed to
recent macroeconomic reports and favorable earnings from leading companies,
particularly in the tech sector. As SPY continues on its upward trajectory,
market events and external factors will play a pivotal role in shaping
trading strategies. Investors should remain informed about economic updates
and corporate performance that can influence price dynamics in the near
future.
$SPY BACK TO 387387 has acted as a huge support.
i believe we have head and shoulder formation incoming.
we should see a leg down soon.
$SPY Current StructureAn important area for markets.
Expect further downtrend continuation after short rally.
$SPY UNDER 340 BY END OF YEAR?Currently sitting in upper range.
Expect further downside as rates continue to increase.
NFA
$SPY December 2, 2024AMEX:SPY December 2, 2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY is tired. 603 targets achieved. But no strength.
The move from low 595.20 to 603.35 is not smooth.
Soe the last rise fro, 587.43 to 603.35 $ SPY need to hold 598 levels being 38.2% retracement.
For the last rise 597.28 to603.35 599 must hold.
I expect AMEX:SPY to be 598.5 to 603 levels today and tomorrow so the moving averages can up as 200 moving average is around 596 levels.
Holding 598-599 my first target is 605 levels.
#TheStrat Weekly/Monthly Setups For DecemberSPY - Closed previous D/W/M close to HOD after making new ATH, so the D/W/M all finished bright green. No evidence of sellers anywhere since every TF above the 60 is currently green. 60 closed slight green, but this can easily be justified as eod corrective activity since all 60 min candles before the last one of the day were green, and every TF above the 60 is green. Going into the new week and month, we can expect buying to continue until we see a lower low on the D, but the real sign of buyers vanishing / sellers gaining control for me will be a Lower Low on the weekly.
Main Monthly Setups To Watch:
Bullish :
DKNG - 1-2-2 Q revstrat in force, 1-3 M, 2-1 W
PM - Hammer 3-1 M
BA - Counter Hammer Failed 2D M
MRK - Hammer M at Downside Exhaustion Level
Bearish:
MU - Shooter 1-3 M, Failed 2U W
ZIM - Rev Strat M at Upside Exhaustion
Main Weekly Setups To Watch:
Bullish:
RTX - 3-1-1 W
PLTR - MoMo Hammer W, Inside D
GOOG - RevStrat Hammer D, Inside W
Bearish:
GAP - 3-1 at Exhaustion
COIN - 2-1 W, Failed 2U D
PINS - Shooter RevStrat Week, Shooter Inside D
RDDT - Inside W (11 Consecutive Weekly HLs)
SQ - Red Inside D/W at Q Exhaustion
SPY 24hr Potterboxes,watch the candles and it will probly trade in range until a breakout to the downside. $5.84 to the top of the big box but the market always goes up just not horizontal. also the law of the threes. Tomorrow should be green.
