There's A Setup For A BounceFor fun, no idea what I'm doing.
Same as all the last times really, just see how it goes tomorrow morning, right now futures are up a bit and will open up a bit if it remains like this. Will still be kind of okay looking though, around lower BB.
Depending on what happens tonight going into tomorrow it's setting up for a bounce as crazy as that looks and sounds.
The bottom graph has a line that suggests oversold. In my mind it is set up if the line remains below the dotted line Aug 6. If it goes up above then maybe toss the idea. I literally only post when this is set up and the last time was last week! The time before that was Oct 30 23, and I posted the weekend before.
Maybe down early in the first part of the day, then reverse up and hard for the next few days?
From the low of Aug 6 -
I usually say
5% chance of ~+10% by Aug 9 (top yellow circle)
40% chance of +5.5% by Aug 9 (lower yellow circle)
60% chance of +5.5% by Aug 20 (right yellow circle)
Really really really don't think we will get +10% with how things are set up as that's ATHs, but just saying it does happen sometimes (not when it's like this though). More like if we get a bounce, it goes down again like this it'll be that time.
Last week I wasn't very optimistic about it (and it didn't happen anyway). This time it's still pretty high, but QQQ is in sync with SPY which means both can go up together now which is a little something.
Green eclipse is things going according to the idea, above is a bonus, below is a fail. If it does bounce, no idea how long it'll last.
You might be asking 40%? 60%? so you're flipping a coin? could go up, could go down? Well it's 40-60% chance of +5.5%, nothing is guaranteed and that's why you have responsible stops in place.
