OIH trade ideas
3 of 3 in progress for OIH(iii) wave target's around $26,46 for a 1,618 of (i)
(iv) waves would correct the bullish no under $24,26, should be less if goes to the 0.381 fibbos retracement of (iii) wave
(v) will go to $29,13 again for a 1.618 of (i) that matches the 2.618 fibbo of i (circle wave) what really makes sense...
will see...
Now below $21.56 invalids the analysis.
Oil Services ETF -OIH -Daily Downtrend Projects 34.3, 36.7 lastUsing Time@Mode Analysis:
When OIH peaked in May just shy of $40. Since the peak you can see that it has been a slow-grind to the downside with price action indicating a steady stream of selling pressure.
When you watch the number of days keep building up at lower and lower levels and the price slowly grinds down, you can make projections to even lower levels still. The current price of 36.68 could fall to 34.33 to balance out the current wave of selling. We use use a stop that is as close as 1 point to target a move of 3 points.
You can see on the left hand side of the chart that OIH has moved consistently with the power of the Time@Mode analysis.
Tim 4:22PM EST, June 9, 2015
OIH - Oil Services ETF - Daily TIME AT MODE I want to show you another example of the power of TIME AT MODE in the previous uptrend and downtrend.
I have analyzed the last two trends (one up, one down) in OIH since January.
The 8-day mode that failed in the uptrend is most interesting because the market was poised to explode higher, but it failed, and the market then went all the way back down to where the uptrend started to attempt to rebuild.
I analyzed the downtrend that ensued also.
The current uptrend started as of today since there has been no new low for 5-days.
Analysis is on the chart.
Tim 33.30 last, March 23, 2015 4:33PM EST
Oil Services ETF - OIH - Daily - Lightning Bolt Pattern Lightning Bolt Pattern -
1. Starts off with a BLAST of volume and price movement
2. Continues on less volume and moves less than the first move.
3. Another decline on even less volume.
3 Waves of selling
Each wave has less volume
Each time the price breaks down
and makes the chart look bad.
This means we could be VERY CLOSE TO A BOTTOM
I guess I am beating on a dead horse here with oil bottoming, so disregard if you are tired of my "buy" signals.
You can wait for 5 days without a new low to buy and you can also wait until the price climbs over a previous day's high. Your risk will be defined by one range and you might have excellent upside potential. Somehow it makes me wonder how much pain that OPEC can handle now that they are depleting their savings in order to keep up their market share. At least inflation won't be a problem for a long time, which oddly enough inflation is more driven by the internet and capacity buildup than the price of oil. But for now, just be glad you don't own bonds that were used to finance high cost oil wells. There seems to be close to zero likelihood those will turn out very well.
32.72 last +0.14 = Risk 2% to make 10% ALSO - keep in mind the other entry techniques above - waiting for 5 days' without a new low and waiting for the price to move over a previous day's high.
Tim
OIL Services - Bullish divergence at valueHere is the weekly chart As you can see price stands at value, the wave does a great job.
Going to the daily chart, we have a class A bullish divergence, and a bullish candle.
The price stands at a very important resistance area on the weekly chart, and it is very important how OIH will act at 55.20$. If there we will see strong rejection, I will close most of the position. If it does go over 55.20, expect it to go at least till 58$, at least!!
Long at 52.22, stop at 51.70$
Oil Services Stocks - OIH - Daily - Cover shorts from last week8/4/2014
53.95 last, down 2.5 pts.
Exit. Close enough and
fast enough to target.
Chance to re-short up
at 55-55.50
Tim 1:31PM EST
OIL SERVICE INDEX - OIH - DAILY - DOUBLE TOP, TARGET DOWN 6%The oil index has had a solid rally this year from the lows in February around the 45 level and has rallied 30% to the 58 level where there now is a double-top pattern. The trendline is a bit steep, but it is broken and I'm looking at two trendlines that move up at between 50% speed and 38.2% speed from the low and provide support down around the 53 level, a mere 6% drop seems imminent for the OIH over the ensuing 3 months.
Earlier this year, in the spring, I was looking for relative outperformance of the OIH to the S&P500, so now that it has outperformed and provided a decent return over the past 3-4 months, it would seem logical to reduce holdings or at least sell calls (at the money) against long term positions.
Note the other charts I have published on OIH.
Regards,
Tim 12:09PM EST 7/28/2014 56.34 -0.51 last
GLD oversold relative to OIH - shorter term versionMy last chart showed how GLD was so far ahead of OIH when it was peaking and over the past few years the price of GLD has come down and oil-related investments have been purchased. This makes sense in hindsight, especially.
However, now GLD has been sold down quite a bit and OIH (oil services stocks) have been purchased up to levels that seem unsustainable in the short term.
The light blue line at the bottom is the ratio of the two and it shows it is turning from a low level and a level that has been a bottom many times in the past. So, this appears to be a low-risk trade. If it is wrong, then the risk is low, which is a bonus.
GOLD GLD IS LOW RELATIVE TO OIH - Oil Service StocksThe ratio (in light blue) between GLD and OIH is at the bottom end of the past 5 year's trading range and is turning up a little here. It could be the start of something and if it isn't, the risk is small.
Look for GLD to outperform OIH (Oil Service Stocks) for the next 3-6 months by 10-15%.
Tim
3:30PM EST Wednesday, May 14, 2014
PAIRS TRADE - BUY OIL SERVICES ETF OIH - SELL SPYThe spread between the performance of OIH and SPY has been extreme for a couple of years now. OIH has gone nowhere now for 8 years, since 2006 and the SPY is up 48%.
The catalyst for this trade to unwind is simply the movement of funds away from the big-cap S&P500 stocks that have been lately making us all wonder how the market is staying up despite the big hits to technology and internet-related names. The generals are leading the army as the IWM Russell 2000 index is far from its highs. I think this is a time when it makes sense to be long the basic industries and short the overall index.
Keep in mind though, that I have a weekly buy signal on the SPY with a 184 stop. Pairs trading these positions in a portfolio would mean letting go of the SPY long position or cutting it down in size.
Risk tolerance - roughly 5% - potential return roughly 20% over 3-6 months.
OIH Breakout Weekly Oil Services has broken out on the weekly. Price is now above the
alley-gator blue line and the Awesome Oscillator is now showing a
green bar.with momentum now shifting.
My entry point would be 2 ticks above this past weeks high
or a retest of the Alley-gator blue line. Halliburton and Schulberge are also strong.
As the summer driving season approaches the oil patch normally shows strength.
OIHThe PRZ on this is tight, so I would think target would hit. Perhaps a pull back before the final push
