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OIH trade ideas

OIH - Looking for a quick run to $20.00After suffering a long draw down, spot oil has recovered well but this services ETF is lagging. Going back to the beginning of the year, OIH has been in a range between $16 and $18. Fueled by spot oil pushing $60 along with a positive sentiment in the overall markets (S&P 500 broke out yesterday over 2815) there's no reason this shouldn't run to $20 soon. We bought some $20 calls going out to late summer to try and take advantage of the impending move.
AMEX:OIHLong
by FRTraders
OIH VS. XLE- They are "Twins" in long term. - In short term, since last high on MAY 17, 2018, OIH is weaker than XLE. - Lower lows and lower highs for OIH - OIH is on the supportive price formed by last two reversing points - XLE does not hit the lower, instead it has a higher low which looks like it has reversed the downtrend If XLE is the right, it means OIH has found or is close to its support too. Then the twins will climb up in the next weeks. If OIH is the right one, XLE will fall down from its supportive neck line which remains effective in the past 3 months. If this time is not typical, then who knows. Personally I prefer the former one, there is not much room for OIH to go down according to the historical low in JAN 2016.
AMEX:OIHLong
by tonyqs87
OPENING: OIH AUG 17TH 26 SHORT STRADDLE (LATE POST)... for a 2.36/contract credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 55% Max Profit: $236/contact Max Loss/Buying Power Effect On Margin: Undefined/$525/contract Break Evens: 23.64/28.36 Delta: -9.37 Theta: 2.1 Notes: Did this from my phone on Friday ... . Although I like to see >35% background implied volatility when pulling the trigger on these, at 30.3%, this isn't horrible. Will shoot for 25% max/roll at 24 DTE or on side approaching worthless.
AMEX:OIH
by NaughtyPines
TRADE IDEA: OIH JULY 20TH 19 LONG/APRIL 20TH 26 SHORT CALLThis is a Poor Man's Covered Call, with the 90 delta July long call standing in as your stock, and the April 20th 26 short call functioning as it would in a covered call situation. Your max loss is the difference between what you paid for the long (currently 6.28 at the mid) minus what you received for the short call (currently .69 at the mid). Consequently, you pay a debit for this setup: 6.28 minus .69 or 5.59/contract. 5.59 is the max you can lose if you (a) do nothing with the setup; and (b) both the short and longs go to worthless on a finish of the underlying below the long strike at 19. 5.59 is also your cost basis in the long option. Look to exit the trade at 10-20% of what you put it on for (i.e., for a $56-$112 profit). This will occur along a neutral to bullish spectrum if either (a) price doesn't move much from here such that the intrinsic value in the long does not change appreciably over time and the short call value dwindles to worthless to (b) price shooting up and through your short call, at which point further increases in value of the long are offset by further increases in the value of the short, thus capping out further gains in the same fashion as would occur with a covered call. On break of the short call, wait toward expiry for the most of the extrinsic to bleed out of the short and then exit the trade as opposed to attempting to roll out the short call and/or strike improve. If the setup still has a "good look," re-up with a totally new Poor Man's. Intratrade, generally roll the short call out for duration and "as is" or to a similarly delta'd strike as the original short call on significant decrease in value (ordinarily, at 50% max). In the unfortunate event that this is no longer productive because price has pulled away from the short call too much, consider rolling the short call down to a reasonably delta'd strike (i.e., between the 20 and 30) while keeping an eye on your cost basis in the long in an attempt to ensure that it is always less than its current value.
AMEX:OIHLong
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: OIH MARCH 16TH 24 SHORT PUTS... for a .97/contract credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 62% Max Profit: $97/contract Max Loss: $2303 Break Even: 23.03 * -- Assuming price goes to zero and you do no rolls or take other loss mitigation measures (e.g., sell short call verts against, etc.). Notes: With background implied volatility greater than 35% and with the recent sell-off in both oil and the broad market, I'm getting into this underlying at a price extreme, but will work it a little differently than I ordinary do. Here, the goal will be to reduce cost basis over time, with each roll taken being for a credit .... .
AMEX:OIH
by NaughtyPines
3
THE WEEK AHEAD: OIH AND XLV PLAYSAlthough earnings season continues to drag on here, a small financial media theme has emerged in this sell-off and that's that "Earnings don't matter" ... at least, at the moment. In keeping with that mini-theme, I'm looking at putting on plays in sector exchange-traded funds, and two of the ones that have been battered the most in this market have been OIH and XLV. My tendency with petro in the past is to play it directionally, although I have dabbled with nondirectional setups like iron flies, short straddles/strangles as well. Both types of setups could be productive here due to the underlying's high implied volatility metrics, which were above 45% as of Friday close. Here are two plays -- one directionally, one non- in OIH: OIH Synthetic Covered Call March 29th 26 short put Probability of Profit: 53% Max Profit: $271/contract Max Loss: Undefined Break Even: 23.29 Notes: Shoot for 50% max of the credit received. OIH Short Strangle March 29th 22/26 short strangle Probability of Profit: 64% Max Profit: $125/contract Max Loss: Undefined Break Evens: 20.75 put side/27.25 call Notes: Also go for 50% max of the credit received. The XLV Plays: March 29th 75/87 short strangle Probability of Profit: 57% Max Profit: $250/contract Max Loss: Undefined Break Evens: 72.50/89.50 Notes: Go for 50% of credit received. The spreads are showing wide after hours, so you'll have to run this setup to see if it's worthwhile during regular market hours. My guess: it won't pay 2.50 at market open ... . Synthetic Covered Call March 29th 86 short put Probability of Profit: 52% Max Profit: $505/contract Max Loss: Undefined Break Even: 80.95 Note: As with the short strangle, showing bid 2.81/mid 5.05/ask 7.30, so the metrics will change at open.
AMEX:OIH
by NaughtyPines