Buy $MJ - NRPicks 14 JanThe index is concentrated in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and life sciences industry group. The fund will invest in the component stocks of the index and in ADRs and GDRs based on the component stocks of the index.
MJ trade ideas
Are pot stocks actually making money?One of the "themes" I have been watching for 2022 is the possible resurgence of pot stocks. Every year has its theme and "anything can happen."
Over the weekend I watched a short Vice documentary following the current state of legal (and illegal) weed in California. You can watch here:
www.youtube.com
We can chalk this up to "unintended consequences" where the new decriminalized regime lowers penalties for growing black market marijuana while the oppressive tax structure is prohibitive to legal marijuana business. I cannot say if this is a "because California" problem or if this the model that will play out state-by-state. Pot stocks, led by Tilray NASDAQ:TLRY , had a rally in 2021 following the election of Biden and Democratic Congress in the USA. Investors assumed this was bullish for the regulated weed industry but examples of what is playing out in California right now show the potential extraneous factors to running a legal marijuana business in the United States. The wheels of politics turn slowly and it could be a very long time before politicians and business owners get it right.
If we look at the largest company by revenue in the United States, Green Thumb Industries OTC:GTBIF , for the last 5 earnings they have made money but the Weekly chart is dangerously close to a full bearish trend. I'll continue watching these stocks and this sector but I'm not a buyer yet.
MJ Tri Fib Channel LevelsMJ Tri Fib Channel Levels. Some past trend lines parallel to the fib channel.
Trend Reversal after accumulation..It all points to being bottomed out - Just wait for it to cross the 50 MA and retest for confirmation. Rsi should give the game away with a drop into the Oversold before shooting up thru that 50. perhaps :)
MJ ETFMG Alt Harvest ETF primed for support bounce!I am finally back from vacation so I can start to post more TA again! I wanted to do some TA on a solid pot ETF I found a few weeks ago that appears to be loading up for a support bounce. MJ ETFMG Alt Harvest is a ETF made up of a bunch of high quality pot stocks. If you go to yahoo finance you can see everything in the holdings basket.
From a TA standpoint MJ has everything going for it to be on a uptrend reversal. Price has fallen for roughly a year now and if we look at previous lows $9 was the ATL. Current price is around $11 and its ATH got up to $45 in Sept 2018. Now while we may not see an ATH in the near future, but i certainly see price growth potential at least doubling from here within a year.
If we look at the MacD on the 10h we are primed for a climb. The total visible range shows us most investors understand an average price of $14. Now while we arent oversold completely on the RSI we dont necessarily need that in order to understand this might be a basic support bounce. With the economy raging into hyper inflation we could see a domino effect of harm to the economy that would increase MJs price naturally; depressed times shows a major increase in substance use. I will personally be going in on this and several other ETFs soon, I wanted to share this one with you guys because of the potential I see in it. I hope you all had a great holiday everyone! Let's make this coming year a profitable one! -DiMarco
Weed ETFFeels like there might gonna be another dip although there's rsi divergence and triple bottoms seen
So better just sit out rn, unless it breaks above the swing high (>12.3) then we'll reassess
Breakout Trendline In ETFMG ALTERNATIVE HARVEST ETFReally Is A Breakout In ETFMG ALTERNATIVE HARVEST ETF to go short ? What do you think ?
Rolling: MJ April 14th 16 Covered Calls to July... for a .27 credit.
Comments: Beginning to slightly hate this position, but it isn't exactly taking up a ton of buying power, so rolling out the April 14th 16's at >50% max to July to reduce cost basis further. Cost basis in my shares now 14.09.
MJ - Early signs of possible turn (up)Turns typically occur first on lower time frames. The 15min/60min charts shown here
highlight what may be an early attempt to turn for MJ. Moxie divergence on 15min is
showing strength building, and should move up in time frames assuming follow
through of price going forward.
This is a "heads up" for those watching MJ and related stocks.
Weed ETFWell i hope its coming to an end and we'll get a reversal soon bc I have a bag of TLRY that need to go 🤡
MJ Set To Apex Near Jan 31, 2022 - Get ReadyThis could be a big move in the Cannabis sector with a very broad Pennant/Flag formation setting up.
Great opportunity for another Reddit/Retail rally with the pending cannabis legislation being discussed and a strong technical price pattern confirming a potential breakout move.
Are you ready for another big rally in the cannabis sector?
Bought MJ for DOPE exposureBought MJ (small position)
Probably jumped in too soon, but wanted some DOPE exposure
Smoke rises ?Was waiting for MJ to (hopefully) reach the weekly rising TL (trendline)
to look for a spot to enter. Have been fortunate to see price move up
from the aligned trampoline setups (wkly,hrly).
This is another example of utilizing Moxie on different timeframes
in order to tighten risk and increase potential reward. We'll see
how this plays out (or doesn't). :o)
MJ | Marijuana reform in the U.S. is on the horizonIn September 2021, the House Judiciary Committee advanced HR 3617 or (MORE) Act of 2021, a bill that repeals the long-standing federal prohibition of marijuana by removing it from the Controlled Substances Act. If passed would facilitate the expungement of low-level federal marijuana convictions, create pathways for ownership opportunities in the emerging regulated industry, and allow individuals to obtain medical cannabis among other things.
In addition, the U.S. House of Representatives approved a bill HR 3355 - SAFE Act of 2021 which would enable banks to do business with cannabis companies without fear of penalty. The bill still awaits a senate vote.
As of now, some 36 states now allow medical or recreational use of marijuana with more to come.
Cannabis stocks have been drifting lower since mid February 2021 greatly under performing the broader market and commodities as a whole. I think Marijuana reform in the U.S. is on the horizon and would lead to strong performance in 2022.
From a technical perspective, the trend is down and could continue lower, however, falling wedges typically conclude to the upside once broken, I'm watching for the short term trend 20DMA and 50DMA to flatten out and start slopping upward, a break and hold of 15.34 would provide confirmation for a sustained move higher.
P/T 1: 19.0
P/T 2: 25.0
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Rolling (IRA): MJ November 19th 16 Short Calls to January... for a .33/contract credit.
Comments: Rolling the short call aspect of my MJ 16 Covered Calls to January here. My cost basis is now 15.05/share minus .33 or 14.72/share, so I can conceivably contemplate rolling the short calls down to the 15 strike, since that would still be above my cost basis.
Is MJ about to get high?Marijuana stocks have been on the decline for a while, but things may soon start turning around.
Last month, the House Judiciary Committee advanced HR 3617 or (MORE) Act of 2021, a bill that repeals the long-standing federal prohibition of marijuana by removing it from the Controlled Substances Act — thereby ending the existing state/federal conflict in cannabis policies and providing state governments with greater authority to regulate marijuana-related activities, including retail sales.
What the MORE Act Does: The legislation’s provisions remove marijuana from the federal Controlled Substances Act — thereby eliminating the existing conflict between state and federal marijuana laws and providing states with the authority to be the primary arbiters of cannabis policy within their jurisdictions.
If passed HR 3617 would facilitate the expungement of low-level federal marijuana convictions, create pathways for ownership opportunities in the emerging regulated industry, and allow veterans to obtain medical cannabis among other things.
Source
I chose MJ to gain exposure to the global cannabis industry.
AUM: 1 Billion
TOP 10 FUND HOLDINGS (%)
Grow Generation Corp: 9.66
Tilray Inc: 9.43
Canopy Growth Corp: 7.80
Aurora Cannabis Inc: 6.61
Cronos Group Inc: 6.42
Hexo Corp: 4.76
Organigram Hldgs Inc: 4.20
Village Farms Intl Inc: 3.92
22nd Centy Group Inc: 3.46
Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc: 3.26
Prospectus
Fact Sheet
Holdings
Technicals
Price action and RSI diverging for the past three months with PA finding support at about $14.00 since the bill was advanced
RSI moving to potentially break above 50 and could correspond to a breakout of the descending wedge
Price holding at about the Fib Extension level of 61.8%, will watch these levels closely as PA advances or declines
The Trade
With confidence that there will be further potential bullish sentiment for the cannabis industry on the horizon, I will be preempting a breakout and taking a position at current levels.
Bull Case
TP1 set at about $17.50
TP2 set at about $25
Anticipate resistance at about $16-$17
Will be watching price action closely below the $17.50 region as a substantial pullback could fill out a possible right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern before retesting trend line and breaking low.
Bear Case
Price action rejection at resistance level at around $15.50 could push price down and make lower lows on the daily chart
If a price drop occurs, I will be watching for support at around the $13.50 region or Fib 50% level
Will look to exit position if weekly close is below $13.00 with RSI levels pushing down to or below 38.2
Approximate risk of loss on trade from current levels is about 12%-15%
MJ ETF Weed Stocks Possible BottomWeed stocks may have found a bottom according to this long term trend line that can be seen on the weekly chart for the MJ ETF.
A break below this line could be very bearish. When trading weed stocks, it's best to stick to ETFs in my opinion as many individual companies dilute their shares to raise money. Investing in an ETF for the most part will help you avoid surprises such as this.
$MJ Let's try some weed...Been watching and waiting on consolidation and a bottom for week stocks, targeting the VWAP around $16.75. Next week $15 or $15.50 calls
Light one "up"Combination of Gann TL and horiz support area suggests
MJ may be making the turn. Watch for completion
of weekly candle to assess at that point.
Rolling (Small Account): MJ January 21st 16 Covered Call... to April 14th 16 Covered Call for a .40 credit.
Comments: My cost basis in shares was 14.76 (See Post Below). Now it's 14.76 - .40 or 14.36. At the time of fill, the short call aspect of this setup was worth .97, so will look at the setup again when that approaches 50% max. I naturally don't generally like rolling out this far in time, but wanted to stay patient and mechanical.
Weed Sector Capitulation and Accumulation (MJ) What's going on with weed stocks?? There are justifiable claims that some of these companies could still be overvalued. However, despite declining price, On-Balance Volume remains relatively high compared to what we saw during the last major downward swing between March 2019 and March 2020. This could signal accumulation. Additionally, the UO (ultimate oscillator - red) shows a bullish divergence on the daily chart.
People who own weed stocks know they need to be patient. The more capital and wealth one has, the easier it is to be patient. This drives accumulation by wealthy entities. I've noticed signs of emotional capitulation by retail weed stock owners. Sentiment is truly awful. Meanwhile, price is just barely sitting on a major horizontal support level.
Interestingly, MJ didn't start to truly bounce from the 2020 lows until Bitcoin started to make its rally towards all-time high last fall. Does the weed sector follow once more?
Below here, and the next support isn't really until around $10, so I see this as a pretty fearful moment in this sector. If it gets down to those lower levels, perhaps I'll purchase more. I'm not really in any hurry. Even in a financial crisis, weed will not lose demand. In fact, as mental health issues increase, so do coping strategies such as smoking/using weed. The weed industry also involves the stable price of a good. Goods and services won't go anywhere in a financial crisis. Weed is a particular kind of resource, so I think it will trade differently. This is part of my reasoning behind my own accumulation.
I guess we'll see! If MJ can bounce hard from these levels, I think it can complete a longer term accumulation process and begin to exit the trading range.
This is not financial advice. This is purely for speculative and entertainment purposes.
-Victor Cobra
ETF Picks For The Next 5 YearsI don't post about stocks or ETF's very often. I got into investing via crypto - and my intention wasn't necessarily to make money either. I had lost faith in the current model of our banking system, and became inspired by what I saw as an alternative. That alternative also ended up being a good financial decision. Ironically (I say this because most investors and traders own a smaller percentage in crypto), my stocks only make up around 2-3% of my portfolio.
There are two reasons I've begun investing a little into the stock market (mostly via ETF's) since I pulled my inital risk from crypto:
1) I'm testing to see if my strategy for crypto (buying into fear, dollar-cost-avergaing, and being extremely patient) will work with regard to the stock market, and perhaps benefit me financially.
2) I genuinely support the marijuana industry and the clean energy industry. Yes, nuclear is considered to be "clean" energy. I picked nuclear because it's flying under the radar, at least in terms of what's "hot" right now.
Looking at the weed industry
Weed is currently a $60 Billion industry. That's actually larger than Tobacco. So, is it still undervalued? I think yes, since tobacco has significantly fewer uses. But let's look at something that's more widespread AND less healthy: Alcohol. The global alcohol industry is worth around $1.4 TRILLION. With that in mind, I think it's fair to assume weed can eventually become at least half as big. It won't be consumed in such large quantities, but I think the uses and applications for it will be quite widespread. What does this mean? It means the value of the Weed sector can grow at least 10x, and it can happen over the next decade. The $170 target is shown on the chart. However, MJ is not in a bull market yet. Despite this, I have been adding slowly. My trendlines show that this could be a decent place to buy. Horizontal supports are also outlined.
Looking at Nuclear
The safety of nuclear power facilities has dramatically increased. Interestingly, URA had been in a severe slump since the Fukushima incident. URA ultimately found a bottom, and is now in a bullish trend, with a golden cross on the weekly. I'm targeting all-time highs. The first big pullback is underway, after the recent incident at the Chinese nuclear facility. My first entry was near $15, but I am slowly buying dips. I also added a small URNM position, which comprises companies that hold physical Uranium. It may perform slightly better.
Of course, I may be wrong. This is why I'm buying slowly and cautiously, rather than piling in all at once. That seems to work with the slow-moving stock market.
I also have invested a little into some other clean energy sectors: solar, hydro, and wind.
Let's see what happens! Certainly not much fervor surrounding these ETF's at the moment, but it's always best to prepare, rather than react emotionally. Definitely learned that from crypto.
This is not financial advice. This is for my personal record, speculation, and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
