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EWZ trade ideas

THE WEEK AHEAD: PEP, COST EARNINGS; EWZ, CRON, NIO, IQ, MJPEP announces earnings on Tuesday before market open; COST, on Thursday, after. Neither presents a particularly compelling earnings announcement-related volatility contraction play, with PEP's rank/30-day implied coming in at 30/18, and COST's at 35/23. With Brazilian elections taking place a week from today (October 7th), it seems to me that an EWZ play is in order if you haven't already got something on: the November 16th 29/39 short strangle is paying 1.59 at the mid with break evens around one standard deevy -- 27.41/40.59. You can naturally go with an October setup, but implied was over 20% higher out in November (44.0% versus 53.2%) as of Friday close, so you're likely to get a little more juice if you go a touch farther out in time. On the exchange-traded fund side of things, EWZ comes in at the top of the board, with a rank/30-day implied at 79/50, followed by USO at 65/28, and GDX at 50/27. Non-earnings high implied: CRON: 71/124; NIO: ~/106; MJ: ~/68.0, and IQ: -/61.4.* Broad Market Majors Background 30-Day: QQQ: 17.2%; IWM: 15.0%; DIA: 13.6%; EFA: 13.3%; SPY: 11.8%. * -- Neither NIO, MJ, nor IQ have been around for 52-weeks, so they don't currently have a 52-week range to evaluate. I would note that the options liquidity for MJ isn't the greatest, but figured I would throw it in there since weed is hot, and not everyone enjoys paying the single name roller coaster. The MJ November 16th 40 short straddle is paying a whopping 7.45 at the mid, with break evens at 32.55 and 47.45 ... .
AMEX:EWZ
by NaughtyPines
EWZ: Likely bottomed or bottoming here...Brazil is extremely washed out, but it has held a long term support level so far. I think odds are the market turns up from here. I'm long $PBR in particular, since it is showing tremendous relative strength vs the brazilian market, and it has a long way to go to catch up to oil, closing the gigantic spread it now has. The situation with the CEO resigning caused further headwinds in the stock, but it has now stabilized and coiling against overhead supply...over time it will break above it following the earnings report most likely -as long as the fundamental story doesn't change and debt continues to be tackled effectively...-. As for the $EWZ chart, we have hit a monthly low volume support, and also the lowest point of the last time they almost impeach Temer, this was a huge capitulation day for many investors and it is where most stocks bottomed back then. I'd look into finding interesting brazilian companies rather than buying the index directly, but it gives us a good reference point here. Another interesting chart is $EEM, and the Chinese stock market, both of which are also affected by the rally in the dollar that we had so far. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:EWZLong
by IvanLabrie
6
OPENING: EWZ AUG 17TH 34 SHORT STRADDLE... for a 2.44/contract credit. Metrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/6.94 Max Profit: 2.44 Break Evens: 31.56/36.44 Theta: 3.89 Delta: -14.41 Notes: Going where the volatility is at (again) in exchange-traded funds to sell a little August cycle premium while I wait for the September monthly to be more in that 45 days until expiration sweet spot. Recently, I've been taking profit in these short straddles fairly quickly (10% max) and then reselling at-the-money, but doing that here (and probably after this point) admittedly presents a marginal trade (10% max of 2.44 is .24).
AMEX:EWZ
by NaughtyPines
2
OPENING: EWZ AUG 17TH 35 SHORT STRADDLE... for a 2.97/contract credit. Metrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/~$670/contract Max Profit: $297/contract Break Evens: 32.03/37.97 Theta: 3.15 Delta: 30.73 (Neutral to Bullish) Notes: Here, I'm looking to emulate the delta of a naked 30 delta short put (paying ~.70/contract currently), but bringing in the beefier credit and extrinsic value of a short straddle. Looking to take this off for the lesser of 10% of buying power effect (~.67) or 25% of max (~.74).
AMEX:EWZLong
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: EWZ SEPT 31ST 31 MONIED COVERED CALL... for a 29.39/debit per one lot. Metrics: Max Loss: 29.39 per contract on setup Max Profit: 1.61 per contract on setup (5.48% ROC) Break Even: 29.39 on setup Delta: 37.54 Theta: 1.40 Notes: Roll the short call out on significant loss of value,* to maintain the desired net delta of the position, and/or to defend the break even. I would note a couple of things: (1) The Max Loss metric assumes you do nothing (no rolls) and that the underlying goes to zero, which is theoretically possible, but unlikely, since it's an exchange-traded fund made up of multiple moving parts, as opposed to being a single name underlying. (2) Similarly, the Max Profit metric assumes you do nothing, and that the underlying finishes above the short call strike at expiry. Rolling out the short call for credit decreases your cost basis and break even, and therefore increases your profit potential. The basic point of the strategy -- regardless of whether you go monied or sell an out-of-the money call -- is to reduce cost basis in the underlying over time without necessarily having to rely on favorable movement. Consequently, you can make money over time if (a) the underlying doesn't move; (b) the underlying moves in a bullish manner; or (c) the underlying moves bearishly --- as long as you are able to collect a credit for a roll of the short call. The only situations in which rolling produces diminishing returns is where (1) the underlying rips up such that the short call you're attempting to sell does not have significant extrinsic value, in which case, your best option is to exit the trade at or near max and re-up if a play remains attractive; or (2) where the underlying has lost so much value that you can't get paid for a reasonably delta'd short call no matter how far out in time you go. Whether you go monied or out-of-the money is, in part, a risk tolerance choice. The trade-off you make in going deeper is that you potentially give up some profit potential on setup in exchange for a more forgiving break even. The primary reasons I go monied over out-of-the-money with these: (a) I'm just looking for a "trade," not an investment. If I was eyeing the setup as an "investment" and wanted to remain married to the shares, out-of-the-money would probably be the way to go; (b) I'm looking to preserve capital in the setup. This usually occurs where the stock I'm married to has had a huge up run and rewarded me hansomely, but I'm worried about this being the potential end of the ride -- I drive the short calls into the money to give me better downside protection; and/or (c) I lack conviction that the underlying will maintain its current level. * -- The most often cited metric is to roll the short call when it's lost 50% of its value. However, a lot of the decision-making process behind whether to roll has to do with how much time is left in the setup. If the short call is at 50% max with four days to go and price is well above my short call, well, I just might want to let it play out. If I'm three days into the play and the underlying has dropped significantly, rolling out at that point makes more sense than waiting, since the underlying may continue to move against me and waiting to roll may not be beneficial for credit collection if that occurs.
AMEX:EWZLong
by NaughtyPines
4