Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking FundInvesco DB Commodity Index Tracking FundInvesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund

Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund

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Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund forum

It looks like the Nasdaq 100 is now testing an important resistance level relative to commodities.

If this level rejects the Nasdaq 100 and commodities begin to outperform again, this could be a confirmation signal that we've entered into a new supercycle where commodities will outperform growth and tech stocks.

A rejection from this level also could mean commodity inflation is not over yet. If scarcities cause commodity inflation to remain persistent even as the global economy slows, this may indicate we've entered into stagflation.

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The Fed must pivot but cannot pivot. It must pivot to avoid a severe recession and liquidity crises, but it cannot pivot because commodity prices are bull flagging on higher timeframe charts (see DBC ). This stagflationary paradox is a central bank's worst nightmare because it is powerless to avoid economic decline. Thus, we are left with only one conclusion: the busts that characterize the cycle of boom and bust may be delayed, but cannot be avoided, by central bank monetary policy. Since the yield curve is inverted, it's likely that SPX and BTCUSD have not yet marked a major bear market bottom. VIX is on major support and the yield curve is inverted.
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