Proshares Bitcoin ETF Truncated 5th Update
First leg down appears to be complete and terminated. Expecting a proregressive(upward) correction wave B to follow. In my humble opinion.
All the best!
BITO trade ideas
Bitcoin Truncated 5th UPDATE!First corrective leg down complete. In my humble opinion. That's it, nothing more & nothing less...........
BITO 15.40 and 13.20 When rising to the selling resistance line BITO 15.40 and 13.20 When rising to the selling resistance line position, there is a possibility of further collapse due to the absence of the lower support line
BITO Double Bottom / SharkBITO, the futures ETF for Bitcoin, is potentially putting in a double bottom here similar to how BTC is forming.
Whether you want to reference a wyckoff schematic, the Bullish Shark pattern with a type 2 in place, or the elliot wave structure on the corrective move from the peak, weve also got a few nice drives of Bullish divergence on the RSI as well as on the MACD here.
RSI is also moving above its average and above the 40 level
A common retracement here would be between 16 (382 fib) to 20$ at the 618 for a local target with a 618 retracement of the full ABC down, sitting at about 26$
This week will be important for all markets, as we could be getting a major move soon.
With the current macro picture in mind, its best to wait for confirmation, but in any case, keep your plan in mind and exercise risk management and proper position sizing.
Closed (Margin): BITO October 21st 11C/16P Short Strangle... for a 6.00 debit.
Comments: Collected a total of 5.01 for this. (See Post Below). Closing it out here as less of a loser (.99/$99) than it was previously.
Time to short Bitcoin againBito has hit the of the channel, negative delta volume and is pushing the weekly candle high
BTC options strategy on BITO (Upside with a Downside Cushion)Have you seen the outlook for BTC?
• Rising Wedge with Bearish sentiment
• Fractal with Bullish prediction
• Bullish on the 2-hour chart
• Bearish on the 8-hour chart
It can be profitable or devastating to make directional trades. Come what may, we can use options on BITO to capture upside with a downside cushion to quell concerns of volatility. There is a way to build custom options strategies that provide upside with a downside cushion. This particular strat can make up to up to 13% (47% annualized), and only start to lose if BITO falls by more than 33% to below $8.82 as of 12/16/2022.
Buy 1 $13 call
Sell 1 $14 call
Sell 1 $9 put
Exp 12/16/22
Limit Price $0.20
Rolling (Margin): BITO Sept 12C/17P to Oct 11C/16P... for a .63 credit.
Comments: Rolling out with 28 days to go, but adjusting strikes slightly to delta neutral, since there wasn't a ton of difference in credit between rolling out "as is" versus delta balancing. Total credits collected of 5.01 on a 5 wide inverted. The setup is currently marking at 6.46 relative to my cost basis of 5.01, so it's underwater by 1.45 ($145). Moreover, the max the setup can make is 5.01 minus the width of the inversion (5.00) (i.e., $1), so I'm just looking to cut that loss a smidge before calling it a day if I can, with price ideally staying between the short option strikes throughout the life of the setup.
Resulting delta/theta of -8.42/2.18.
Bitcoin is about to breakout The pattern shown here is a bullish triangle on the hourly timeframe. While the breakout can theoretically be in any direction, the bias is towards the upside. The first target would be the ~18 level (>20% higher).
TAKEAWAY: This kind of move should come on some news headline so let's see what the media feeds us over the next 3-4 days :)
Rolled (Margin): BITO August 19th 12C/17P to September 16th... for a .79 credit.
Comments: Not much I can do with this here besides roll out as is, reduce cost basis further. Total credits collected of 4.38 on a five-wide inverted.
Rolling: BITO August 19th 16 Call to 12... for a 1.13 credit.
Comments: Inverting my short strangle further ... . Total credits collected of 3.59 on a 5 wide inverted (12C/17P).
Rolling: BITO July 15th 16C/17P to August... for an .89 credit.
Comments: Just rolling "as is" here about half way through the cycle to reduce cost basis further. Total credits collected of 2.46 on a 1-wide inverted (i.e., I can invert a smidge further to a two-wide if I don't get a bounce).
BITCOIN - Short using BITO ETFTriangle consolidation setup. Main trend is down. A 5:1 reward/risk opportunity.
Take profits fast as sentiment is at extreme bearishness. The world is ending, inflation is out of control, war, interest rates etc etc..
Opened: BITO July 15th 16 Short Call... for a .64 credit.
Comments: The slippage sub-18 was somewhat rapid, so I'm probably got in here a little late to defend my July 15th 17 short put, but something is better than nothing. Total credits collected of 1.57 on a one-wide inverted.
Rolled: BITO June 17th 18 Short Put to July 15th 17... for a .45 credit.
Comments: Too many trades, not enough time ... . Rolled this out on Friday for a .45 credit. Total credits collected: .48 (See Post Below) plus the .45 here for a total of .93. The original setup was a spread with the long leg at the 11. It has gone no bid, so I'm leaving it behind as a lotto trade.
BITO Bearish FlowLots of puts being bought today 5/23/2022. Could be consolidating before another big move down.
$BITO Bullish DragonBullish divergence here on the 1.13 rejection giving us the second low that make up the "Feet".
The 1.13 rejection also gives us incite into possible retracement levels, as it could imply we will form the CD wave of the Bearish Shark next, giving us a .886 return.
The .382 would be your "Hump" and ultimately the door that takes you to the .886-1.13 extension
Trade Bitcoin Bounce with BITO - Lower Risk, Cheaper OptionsOn my BTCUSD weekly chart I had a support line drawn at 32,000, though there are wicks down to ~29,700. Shown here on 30min chart, price just crashed down to 31,000 and made a long hammer candle. Keep an eye on BITO, as RSI is under 15 and with price far from 20sma there should be a tradeable bounce soon. There may be a broad rally this week, crypto included, and if so then BITO calls (under 50cents, under $1.00) have a very nice reward/risk on a short term trade.
Bitcoin ETFWhen you see Bitcoin getting around that 7k area ... while I wont be buying that garbage, I will be buying this garbage. Heads up if you didnt know about this.... it has options to go with it too which I kind of dig.
BITO (Bitcoin Asset) as an alternative diversification assetFundamental Analysis
Bitcoin is highly correlated with Equity assets in the near-term. The asset would decouple from this positive correlation the way Gold did when it switched from a speculative commodity into a safety asset. In the short-term, there will be high volatility, but in the long-term this asset could decouple from the Equity market once regulations are increased on it.
BITO etf has had a huge sell-off and could be a good hedge for a portfolio in the long-term, with a potential for a huge spike once regulations favour this commodity as a viable risk asset.
From a portfolio approach, it helps with diversification in the long-term when the asset starts to trade more uncorrelated with the equity markets and trades more like the derivatives market.
This is still not a well-established risk asset and should be treated like currencies in the short-term.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin in the short-term is acting like an equity risk asset. Over the long-term, it should decouple and be a better risk instrument. However, it is still underpriced compared to gold and can be used as a risk hedge for a portfolio.
BTC Update: 9 MayBitcoin is experiencing a selloff and that is what we expected in our bearish scenario. In this video I explain an idea to capture the move with an Iron Condor. We are able to set it up because implied volatility is highest in an Elliott wave 3 of 3. This strategy will benefit from an immediate bounce with a volatility crush, or an exhaustion of the selloff in the target zone, or a collapse with a rebound that ends in the target zone upon expiration.
Opening: BITO June 17th 11/18 Short Put Vertical... for a .48/contract credit.
Comments: High IV with 30-day at 71%.
Unfortunately, I don't get any relief on margin for this particularly underlying, so am buying a cheap long put to bring in buying power effect from 17.46 for the naked 18 to 6.54 for the spread. Paying .07 for the long to bring buying power effect in by >60%.
ROC 7.3% at max as a function of buying power effect; 3.7% at 50% max.
Bitcoin etf trending sideways. GOOD SALE PRICE.With only a technical analysis and following the current state of economic conditions. Their is too much uncertainty in the market currently, a lot of companies have taken big hits. My goal is to redistribute funds in defensive stocks and other derivatives to protect and grow my money in this type of market. That mission started with bitcoin ETF, I had my eye on bitcoin ETF since it’s IPO. However the risk was what’s going to happen with cryptocurrency as a whole. They’re still in court so as an investor there is a high risk of uncertainty.
After setting a few trend lines and possible trend directions, I came to the conclusion that the worst of The Bitcoin ETF sell off is behind us, & indecision will be more in control for the most part. after the sell off that erased a little more than half of its stock price value, the Bitcoin ETF began to slightly edge in a bullish direction, Notice the arrows & how the Bollinger bands are sloping above the trend lines, pushing towards former highs however after falling from previous support levels the Bitcoin ETF seems to be struggling to breakthrough the resistance, it just resting right under. As long as the bitcoin ETF can hold it’s current support levels in this current economic state, a recovery is more than likely. However if it cannot break past it’s former support levels another sell off is likely as well. due to the uncertainty and high volatility I don’t see it as a defensive stock rather more a growth stock. I see Bitcoin ETF trending sideways for a while, between the crypto court cases and current economic conditions; redistributing funds into the ETF to protect my money might not be the best idea. However for someone with more risk tolerance, $25 and under is clearance prices in a long position.
