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12/2/24 - $nu - Bot $12, load closer to $10 if/when (LONG)12/2/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NU Bot $12, load closer to $10 if/when - is one of the three stonks in latam that i've commented in the past is worth keeping a v close eye on b/c of the growth rates and tremendous product. the others are NASDAQ:MELI and NASDAQ:DLO (the latter of which worked out nicely and we made a good exit earlier this year from the lows, but it took a minute). - back to Nubank: 1/ brazil in earlier innings of economic funeral, but what's new this happens every so often and those battle tested growers tend to come out of these events eating massive share, Nu will be one of these 2/ timing is always the tricky thing. you want to take calculated risk, but unlike the US stonks, you have clear geo/ FX and therefore adverse flows risk to consider. invest in emerging mkts and you need to have a tolerance/ knowledge of currency risk, minimally. i'm not going to downplay that here, but only to flag this needs to be something you consider if/when considering a stake in $nu. the counter point is they're growing bananas outside of Brazil as well and likely take over pretty much over every other latam country similar to Meli. IMO, there's no competition for the growth engine they can export into latam. 3/ let's math and use two approaches... PE and ROE -> book value a1. PE: let's imagine the 62c next year (in USD) is 50c - only a 15% growth. the reason you'd look at this is b/c most investors r going to be focused here, so you stand the chance of risk-evaluating what others see and making a call (similar to support and resistance vs. some esoteric TA you've developed). in this vein, what would you pay for a 15% EPS grower (ignoring all other factors of what this biz is and only considering it's a bank in Latam)? maybe 10-12x? def sub 1x PEG. b/c it's brazil, brazil is currently fukt. so you put a "depressed multiple" on a depressed EPS. at call it 50c and 10x - you're at $5 bucks. sick downside from the $12 it closed at today. so that's probably *worst* case, from today's POV. let's call that -60%. diddy slip and slide party pain. a.2: PE: but this isn't some "new kid on the block". a lot of Nu investors are smart int'l types that are going to look beyond trough '25, even today, including papi warren B. so if we assume we pick up from 15% toward 20% the following year and go 50c -> 60c, you'd probably start to consider at that point at least a PEG of 1x given growth would extend to the following yrs as well. at 20x on 60c you're at $12 for year-end '26. and let's give it a 15% discount (Ke brazil finger in air - but likely in the ballpark) and you get to $10 and change for the 12M view e.g. YE25, which is the bogey we're all looking at today given we're already done w/ '24. so that's 20% downside. combining a.1 and a.2 above... i'd likely weight a.2 as being perhaps a 70% and a.1 as 30% given the logic described, investor base and this isn't some going concern issue. also i'm being mega conservative w/ my EPS estimates as well. if you haven't noticed, they keep ripping the cover off the ball on EPS. so combined that's -60%*30% + -20%*70% = 33% downside more or less or a $8 stonk. b: ROE thinking. 25% ROEs (probably expanding) and growing book at probably ~$1/shr for the next 2 yrs combined gets you to a book of $5. when you consider this likely continues to grow nearly 15-20% a year... and we could be conservative and say it's 10% a year (cut it more than in half)... at a 15% Ke you get: Price = BookVal * (ROE - g)/(Ke - g) then discount 2 yrs by 15%. this is Price = $5 * (25 - 10)/(15 - 10)/1.15/1.15 = $11+ today. tying this all together... fair value is probably between 10 and 11 today. so buying $12 is defn being a bit opportunistic and playing a reversion move on BRL related assets. i'd not be surprised to see this thing move back toward $13/14 into year end, and equally i'd not be surprised to see it test the big green dilly from Aug 5 this year that ripped thru $10. So, it's not an obvious trade for those who don't know this asset or haven't been following that closely. perhaps easier to wait for better entry even if that means some chop here/ there and you get a bit of fomo if first move is up. The way i'm personally playing it are $10 and $11 strike 2027 leaps. allows me to amp my exposure without necking out too hard on a notional cash-in basis. offers about 3-1 leverage, so a 1.5-2% options position gets me a gross effective of about 5-6%. that's comfy for now. i'd like to get this position closer to 10-15% if/when we hit the $10s area or below (and it will be one to manage b/c *WHY* we go there will matter a lot - not just a rote plan, these things always evolve and perhaps there are other better deals out there too esp in the US or my favs NASDAQ:NXT , NYSE:TSM , NASDAQ:META ). anyway. wanted to flag. should be on your radar. this is a quality LT compounder that's gotten cheap b/c of geography, but is a neo-bank virus to the existing dino's in latam. LMK what u think or esp if u see it differently. have a good week my friends V
NYSE:NULong
by VROCKSTAR
IREDA :High Voltage DramaIREDA Analysis (20th Dec 2024) The chart showcases a Bullish Flag Breakout , a golden retracement zone, and defined targets. Let’s analyze actionable insights and strategies. Current Structure: The stock has broken out from a bullish flag pattern, indicating a strong uptrend. Retracement to the green zone (191-204) is likely before continuing its rally. The first target zone is 243-248, with an extended target at 278. A stop-loss at 186 is set below the golden retracement zone. Action Plan: Buying Opportunity: Enter between 191-204 (retracement zone). This level aligns with Fibonacci retracement and prior resistance turned support. Targets: Partial profit booking near 243-248. Trail stop-loss to 220 for a move towards the extended target at 278. Stop Loss: Place below 186 to limit downside risk. Risk-Reward Ratio: Buying at 200 with targets at 243 and 278 offers a strong risk-reward of approximately 1:4. Key Educational Note: The breakout from a bullish flag pattern signifies continuation. Retracements are opportunities to enter the trend with limited risk. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always verify with a certified financial advisor. Like and share to support!
NSE:IREDALong
by LiveTradingBox
ACHR Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown with Key Level!The **30-minute chart** for **ACHR** highlights a **symmetrical triangle breakdown**, indicating bearish momentum. - **Entry**: $8.32 (yellow line - breakdown level) - **Stop Loss (SL)**: $7.75 (white line - key support) - **Target 1 (T1)**: $9.30 (red line - immediate resistance) - **Target 2 (T2)**: $10.55 (green line - major resistance level) The price is breaking below key support levels with strong volume, suggesting potential for further downside. Watch for price action near $8.32 to confirm the trend. #ACHR #TradingSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #NYSE #StockMarket #BearishTrend
NYSE:ACHRLong
by Xeeshan79
Cup and Handle Breakout in PETRONETPETRONET has formed a classic Cup and Handle pattern on the hourly chart, signaling a potential bullish breakout. Pattern Breakdown: Cup Formation: A smooth rounding bottom from ₹310 to ₹337, indicating strong accumulation. Handle Formation: A slight retracement near ₹330, forming a consolidation zone before the breakout. Indicators: RSI: Currently above 70, showing bullish momentum. Volume: Increased significantly, confirming buying pressure. Key Levels: Breakout Level: ₹337 The price has broken above this resistance, confirming the breakout. Targets: Target 1: ₹350 Target 2: ₹360 Stop-Loss: Below ₹330 (handle low). 💡 Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes and not financial advice. Please perform your due diligence before entering any trade.
NSE:PETRONETLong
by jeet20
BBAI: The Next Big AI StockThe AI industry has captured alot of interest from many investors and traders alike. After the most recent massive rally on Sounhound , for a whopping 400% , we may potentially see a rotation into other AI players such as Big Bear. BigBear.ai is a technology and analytics company specializing in artificial intelligence (AI) solutions for decision support and predictive analytics. The company focuses on providing AI-driven tools and insights to support data-driven decision-making, particularly in complex and high-stakes environments. BigBear.ai serves industries such as defense, healthcare, manufacturing, and logistics, offering services that include: Predictive Analytics: Helping organizations anticipate future scenarios by analyzing patterns and trends. Data Integration: Combining data from multiple sources for a unified and actionable perspective. AI-Driven Decision Support: Leveraging machine learning and advanced algorithms to guide strategic planning. Simulation and Modeling: Creating virtual scenarios to test outcomes and optimize decision-making. The company's solutions are designed to enhance operational efficiency, improve situational awareness, and enable smarter, faster decisions. At the moment, we have several indicators pointing to potentially higher prices including the anchored vwap of the low, as well as a value area breakout and massive triangle breakout. Lets see how it plays out
NYSE:BBAILong
by afurs1
2
AMD - good DCA candidateAMD has dropped close to 50% from it's all time high, during the height of the AI exuberance. It's now in a speakerphone pattern and has entered the Golden Pocket Fibonacci retracement level. I believe this is a good opportunity to start a position, using a DCA approach, in the hope it drops more for further accumulation. It could well drop another 20-30% from here, where I would add more for a long term hold. If you're bullish on AI and if we are indeed in the early innings of a new industrial revolution, AMD presents an excellent opportunity to get in on the longer term growth of this cyclical trend. It's true AMD is no Nvidia but the upside potential for Nvidia is far less that AMD. Looking back at the price action, you will notice similar patterns have played out before a strong push to the upside. This is not financial advise, do what's best for you.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by NoFOMO_
PLTR: Technical Analysis (TA) and GEX for December 20Market Overview for December 19, 2024 Today’s market showed consolidation across major indices, with limited directional movement and investor caution following recent Federal Reserve policy updates. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experienced marginal declines, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat. Treasury yields exhibited mixed movements, reflecting a blend of economic resilience and sector-specific challenges. Key highlights: * Sector Movers: Darden Restaurants surged nearly 15% on strong results, while Lamb Weston and Micron Technology saw sharp declines. * Sentiment: Caution persisted due to mixed economic data and limited clarity on 2025 rate cuts. ---------------------- Technical Analysis (TA) and GEX for PLTR 1. Key Levels (Based on Charts) * Support: * $72.00 (2nd Put Wall) * $70.27 (Bearish channel support) * $68.00 (3rd Put Wall) * Resistance: * $75.50 - Immediate resistance from today’s price action. * $77.61 - Key GEX level. * $80.00 - Highest positive NET GEX. 2. Price Action Insights * PLTR’s price action suggests consolidation within a bearish descending channel on the hourly chart. * Recent rejection near $75.50 indicates sellers defending this level. * Intraday low volume suggests weaker momentum, aligning with a sideways trend. 3. Indicators Analysis * 9 EMA and 21 EMA: * Both EMAs are flattening, indicating a lack of strong momentum. * MACD: * Nearing a bearish crossover on lower timeframes, signaling potential downside pressure. * Options Oscillator: * Call activity dominates, with 83.9% calls indicating bullish sentiment, though it remains unconfirmed by price action. 4. GEX Analysis * Key Gamma Levels: * $75: 73% (2nd Call Wall) - Acts as a pivot level for tomorrow. * $77: 52.26% (3rd Call Wall) - Bullish breakout above this level signals momentum. * $72: 13.55% (-Put Wall) - First downside support. * $70: Critical put support for bearish scenarios. Trading Outlook for Tomorrow Bullish Scenario: * A break above $75.50 with strong volume can lead to $77.61 (GEX resistance) and potentially $80. Bearish Scenario: * Failure to hold $74 could result in a decline to $72 (Put Wall), with further downside to $70 in a bearish continuation. Neutral/Range-Bound Scenario: * Consolidation between $74 and $75.50, consistent with today’s activity, remains likely if volume stays muted. Actionable Suggestions * Entry: * Bullish: Above $75.50 with targets at $77 and $80. * Bearish: Below $74 with targets at $72 and $70. * Stop-Loss: * Long: Below $74. * Short: Above $75.50. * Scalping Opportunity: * Monitor breakouts from the $74–$75.50 range for quick trades. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately before trading.
NASDAQ:PLTR
by BullBearInsights
Beyond Basic Candlestick Pattern AnalysisLearning to Recognize Who Is Controlling the Stock Price There is a plethora of training on Candlestick Pattern Analysis and interpretation, and yet this remains one of the most problematic areas for Technical Traders who want to trade at the expert level. Once the basics of Japanese Candlestick Patterns are understood, it is time to move up to the next tier of analysis. That is being able to recognize not only where a pattern is, but also who forms that pattern, why they are capable of creating that pattern, what automated orders generate that pattern, and which Market Participant Groups react or chase that pattern. Nowadays it has become critical to include Volume with Candlestick Analysis, because this provides the basis for recognizing which Market Participant Group created that candle pattern. Candlestick Pattern Analysis at the expert level involves more than just one to three candles. Instead it includes a larger group of candles in the near term. This is what I call "Relational Analysis." This is especially useful for Swing Traders, Momentum Traders, Velocity Traders, Swing Options Traders, and Day Traders using Swing Style Intraday action. The NYSE:RAMP chart is an excellent example of a Candlestick Pattern for Swing Style Trading. See where High Frequency Traders (HFTs) took control of price, and gapped the stock down for one day on extreme volume. Selling did not continue the following two days, and Volume was above the Moving Average, but much lower than the High Frequency Traders' spiking Volume pattern. This was the first accumulation level for this stock. Dark Pools started buying the stock even though High Frequency Traders were selling, since they typically miss this initial buy mode of the giant Institutions. High Frequency Traders typically create the final gap down to the low which, if it reverses quickly, indicates a Buy Zone area for the Dark Pools. These patterns are what I call "Shifts of Sentiment." They happen in bottom formations where buying is generally dominated by the Largest Institutions' quiet accumulation. The next phase will be when Professional Traders and then High Frequency Traders discover the Dark Pool accumulation. The bottom is not complete, but it shifts sideways if more Dark Pools decide to buy.
NYSE:RAMPEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Tesla (TSLA): Profits Taken, Pullback AnticipatedWhat a rise by NASDAQ:TSLA ! The stock has now reached the targeted wave 3 zone, and we might see some asset rotation out of Tesla into underperforming stocks that could attract renewed attention and capital inflows. Many traders have booked significant profits on NASDAQ:TSLA , and larger players are likely to do the same in the coming sessions. As usual, our focus remains on building a new position during a pullback. We are targeting the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement levels, which should provide sufficient support for another push higher, potentially toward $585 or more. A key level to watch is the old all-time high. Should bulls defend it effectively, waiting for an entry at $371.35 might leave us sidelined. However, we see no reason to force or rush an entry into NASDAQ:TSLA at the moment. Patience remains critical as we wait for the market to come to us.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by freeguy_by_wmc