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$EUIRYY -CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024) source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed. Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%. Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation slowed for services (4% vs 4.1%) while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly more (2.4% vs 2.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.8%. Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany (1.8% vs 2%), France (1.5% vs 2.2%), Italy (0.8% vs 1.2%), Spain (1.7% vs 2.4%). The ECB expects inflation to rise again in the latter part of 2024, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. Inflation should then decline towards 2% over the second half of 2025.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
NFP & Port Strikes: Why Jobs Matter This Week Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to rise by 140,000 in September, matching August's pace and pushing the three-month average job gains to the weakest level since mid-2019. The NFP data is due this Friday. At the same time, a major labor disruption is underway. Dockworkers at 14 key ports, handling roughly half of U.S. trade, have launched an indefinite strike. The walkout could disrupt trade and strain the economy ahead of the presidential election and the crucial holiday shopping season. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern that a prolonged strike could worsen supply chain bottlenecks, exacerbate inflation, and alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.
FRED:DFF
by BlackBull_Markets
Using Credit Spread chart for bull/bear market sentiment changesIt's known that credit spreads under 4 indicate a low risk on type market. (The black dotted line on the above chart indicates 4 so you can clearly see above/below) You can then use the RSI index to gauge whether or not the market might see a "change" in sentiment. A declining RSI means bull mode while a rising RSI means bear mode (could be just a market correction OR it could lead to a major bear). What to notice about the above chart: 1. RSI tops are usually very aggressive; V-Shaped type moves thus making market bottoms typically a little more challenging in the moment. 2. RSI bottoms usually give you a warning sign and are typically more gradual thus you can use more fundamental analysis to gauge whether or not it might just be the usual market correction or a possible major bear market (i.e. like the one between 2000-2009). You can see using the green circles how the RSI changes course from down to up with the important caveat that credit spreads should be below 4; which indicates complacency in the marketplace IMO. Going back in time...the chart below shows on SPX in real time when "caution" (yellow vertical line) was indicated; meaning the RSI was showing a possible double bottom to indicate a possible change in direction vs. "extreme caution" (red vertical line) was indicated; meaning the RSI created a clear higher high & higher low thereby definitely shifting RSI from down to up. As you can see sometimes the corrections happen immediately thereafter and sometimes the market continues upward for a bit (especially after yellow vertical line signals). HOWEVER, once the RSI change in direction does indeed occur either using the yellow or red vertical lines...the SPX has always eventually traded lower once you have a trigger date. This would allow those who do not hedge to re-evaluate their portfolios for a risk off type upcoming move. LASTLY but most importantly (Especially if you are currently really bearish on the overall US market)...look at the current RSI. We are in a downtrend (SPX bullish), we are below 4 (risk on) AND we are no where near a possible bottoming process on the RSI at the moment (the current green circle looks nothing like the past). We are certainly where one should be on high alert that a bottoming process on the RSI MIGHT begin to form however it needs to play out first and only then should you begin to start looking to short SPX.
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
by Vixtine
Why The Fed Lowered Rates - My Opinion Part IThere has been a lot of speculation as to why the Fed lowered interest rates by 50bp. My opinion is the Fed realized the pressure of a stronger US-Dollar and stronger US economy, headed into the POTUS election accompanied with new spending/policy related to a new POTUS, could put the global markets under extreme currency/economic pressures. So, in order to provide more breathing room for the global economies, the US Fed decreased rates, taking a bit of pressure off currency rate divergences and allowing global central banks a bit of room to manage their economies against the 900-lb Gorilla (which is the US economy/US-Dollar). In short, the US Fed needed to alleviate pressure put on the Global markets because of the 900-lb Gorilla US economy. Not to save the US economy from an internal crisis... But to save the world from a crisis of their own making. A Global Credit/Debt crisis has been brewing since before 2008. The US Fed "gave in" and decided they had to decrease rates to reduce the risk of a foreign market contagion event (currencies/debt). In my opinion, that is the only reason the Fed lowered rates. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
ECONOMICS:USGDPLong
by BradMatheny
$GBIRYY CPI (August/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY CPI Data (August/2024) 'UK Inflation Rate Steady at 2.2%' source: Office for National Statistics - Annual inflation rate ( ECONOMICS:GBIRYY ) in the UK steadied at 2.2% in August 2024, the same as in July, and in line with expectations. The largest upward contribution came from air fares while the biggest downward contributions came from prices for motor fuels, and restaurants and hotels. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.2% fall in July and also matching expectations.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
SPX direction after first and last FED rate cutsThis chart compares FED rate cuts to SPX chart. The last 3 times after the first rate cuts there was a slight upward rally of the SP500 of about 5-10%, before going on a bearish retrace of about -40%, -50% & -20%, and then bottoming out only AFTER the final rate cut. Based on this, if history repeats, there might be a year end upward movement in the stock market, perhaps followed by a retrace through 2025 until the final rate cut. And then massively up from there again. The last 3 times rate cuts did not mean sp500 starts going up immediately. There was a retrace instead. SP500 went up only AFTER the final rate cut.
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by strip
Yield Curve Reversion Trade 2024The yield curve reversion is when the US10Y Treasury Yield becomes greater than the US2Y Treasury Yield and has a track record for signalling recession. I've been tracking the reversion for the past two years for any hint of sense of whether the US FED would cut FEDFUNDS rates or if bond traders would drive yields/prices towards reversion. This time, the fed's narrative is driving the reaction here. To express this idea I've put on long CBOT_MINI:10Y1! and short CBOT_MINI:2YY1! via the futures market. I'll keep rolling the futures contracts until the yield curve starts to form a top, likely a spread value between 1.5-3.0.
FRED:T10Y2YLong
by pb0316
M2 supply seasonality - sell in may & go away until OctoberUsing this formula: (FRED:M2SL+ECONOMICS:EUM2+ECONOMICS:JPM2+ECONOMICS:CNM2+ECONOMICS:INM2+ECONOMICS:GBM2+ECONOMICS:CAM2)/100000000000000 This formula includes US, EU, GB, CAN, JP, In & CN M2 money supply. You can clearly see M2 money supply seasonality changes, rounding consolidation from June1st & going up starting from October. Every time - for the last 5 years very clearly. More global liquidity should drive the markets up.
FRED:M2SLLong
by strip
2
The 3-way of Economic Nightmares.I recently had a discussion on X, with regard to the Forecasting ability of High Yield Spreads. I was making the claim they do possess Leading Indicator qualities, while a gentleman took the other side of this debate. To illustrate my views, I've put together a chart of FedFunds Rate, Unemployment Rate, and said High Yield Spreads. This chart shows the last ~28yr of the above mentioned series, and how they "play" with one another. A) Shows the period leading into the "DotCom" Bubble. We see High Yield Spreads rise first - Leading the other two data series. In a Coincident fashion, FedFunds then rolls over, while Unemployment shoots higher. A successful "Forecast" by High Yield Spreads of the impending Downturn/Recession. A successful Leading Indicator. B) Shows the period leading into the "GFC". We once again see High Yield Spreads rise, this time SHARPLY, albeit with much less "lead time" than the previous example. As with example A), FedFunds and Unemployment then begin their inverse (to each other) dance. Once again showing High Yields Spread giving us that Advanced/Leading warning that things were getting fragile in the economy. A successful Leading Indicator - with admittedly less warning time. C) Shows us an outlier in this analysis, and for good reason. We see our 'significant' rise in High Yield Spreads, but what we do NOT see, is FedFunds and Unemployment doing their typical dance. Unemployment continues to head lower, while FedFunds begin to rise - the OPPOSITE of what they did in the prior 2 examples. D) Shows the period surrounding Covid. Once again High Yield Spreads shoot up in a dramatic fashion, warning bells should be going off in markets. Much like 2 of the previous 3 examples, FedFunds had also been in a "hiking" cycle. And right on cue, Unemployment skyrockets; completing our 3-way from Hell. We now find ourself in E). In the Oval we see our significant rise in High Yield Spreads, but this is accompanied by rising FedFunds, so we do not have our "danger" signal. Unemployment also remains low. We now however see High Yield Spreads beginning to turn up, with talks of Rate Cuts to FedFunds, as well as Unemployment rising. History may not repeat, but it does often rhyme. Are we starting to see warning signs flashing? Only time will tell, but as stated in previous posts... It's definitely not a time to be leveraged, or riding on large gains you haven't secured. TLDR; High Yield Spreads followed by Fallings FedFunds and Rising Unemployment = Market/Economic Stroke. As always, good luck, have fun, practice solid risk management. And thank you for your time.
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2
by mrjones2020
PIMCO Warning on Fed's First Cut in 4 Years next week The only event that matters next week is the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which could result in its first rate cut in over four years PIMCO analysts, in a fresh note, outlined what could be in store for the U.S. dollar as the Fed embarks on its rate-cutting cycle. Historically, the dollar has shown a tendency to weaken, at least briefly, following the Fed’s initial rate cuts since the 1990s. The Fed now faces a tight decision on whether to opt for a larger-than-expected half-point cut or stick with a quarter-point reduction. An aggressive half-point move could raise concerns that the central bank is concerned about the economic outlook for the US, potentially prompting markets to price in further, more drastic rate cuts beyond the Fed's current trajectory.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by BlackBull_Markets