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Economy

S&P 500 market will open for the forth day todayThe S&P500 index yesterday closed at its highest trade line level in three days at 3,999.26 as investors turned to US stocks. Most of the gains in this week's pullback in US stock prices have been led by bank stocks as well as shares of some media companies, which were probably untapped by individuals and businesses. The S&P is now up 5.2% this week This is not a piece of financial advice. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
FRED:SP500
by CryptoSanders9563
CPI & Inflation Rate USHello everyone! Let's take a look on what happened yesterday on the US financial market and understand the impact of CPI and inflation rate. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation news from the United States can have a significant impact on financial markets and the value of the U.S. dollar. The CPI measures the change in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households, and inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising. When the CPI and inflation numbers are higher than expected , it can indicate that the economy is growing, which can boost stock prices, lead to higher interest rates, and appreciate the dollar. This is because as the economy grows, companies will see increased demand for their products and services, which can lead to higher profits and stock prices. Higher interest rates can also attract more investors to bonds, which can lead to higher bond prices. Additionally, a strong economy can lead to increased demand for U.S. goods and services, and increased foreign investment in the U.S. economy. As a result, the demand for dollars increases, which can lead to an increase in the value of the dollar. On the other hand, if the CPI and inflation numbers are lower than expected , it can indicate that the economy is slowing down , which can lead to lower stock prices, lower interest rates and depreciation of the dollar. This is because as the economy slows down, companies will see decreased demand for their products and services, which can lead to lower profits and stock prices. Lower interest rates can also lead to less investors in bonds, which can lead to lower bond prices. Additionally, a weak economy can lead to decreased demand for U.S. goods and services, and decreased foreign investment in the U.S. economy. As a result, the demand for dollars decreases, which can lead to a decrease in the value of the dollar. It's important to note that the Federal Reserve uses inflation as an indicator to change the monetary policy, as they use interest rates as a tool to control inflation. Typically if inflation is too high, the Fed will increase interest rates to slow down the economy and curb inflation, and if inflation is too low, the Fed will decrease interest rates to stimulate the economy. These monetary policy decisions can also have an impact on the value of the dollar, as when the Fed raises interest rates, it can make the U.S. a more attractive place to invest, which can lead to an appreciation of the dollar. Conversely, when the Fed lowers interest rates, it can make the U.S. a less attractive place to invest, which can lead to a depreciation of the dollar.
ECONOMICS:USCPIEducation
by m_maia14
A game of head and shoulders... Double top takes the throne The first head and shoulder hit exactly at its text book target before rebounding The now formed INVERSE head and shoulder target would be 4,600 and give the market a chance to form a double top , scoop up all the liquidity from retail jumping back in and then take us down to depths that so far only the most degenerate bears even speak about BTC should likely peak at around 29-33k during this rally before it begins a much harsher drop back to early 2020 price ranges
FRED:SP500
by thecardiak
2
230112- Relation (1) interest rate, (2) Treasury Yield, (3) oil U.S. INTEREST RATES vs TREASURY YIELD vs OIL PRICE Timeframe: 1 month. start: 1972 Blue line: interest rates (USINT) Orange area: 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (IRLTLT01USM156N) Green Line: oil (scale on the left) (A) WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE ABOVE BOND YIELD, (1) it sparks a financial crisis: 1990, 2000, 2008, 2019 (2) it is followed by a spike in oil price. (3) on smaller timescale, oil price rises and falls with increases and decreases in Treasury Yields. (B) OBSERVATIONS ON INTEREST RATE: (1) Interest Rates have been falling since 1980 (2) Treasury Yields have been declining since 1980 (3) It appears, the Federal Reserves strives for a 5% interest rate. It drops interest rates FAST when the market is too hot, and builds up slowly again, attempting to meat the 5% arbitrary target. (4) As time goes on the Federal Reserve is more cautious in raising interest rates. BUT MOST RECENT RAISES IN INTEREST RATE ARE ALL BUT SLOW. s3.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by UnknownUnicorn39208297
Inflation Report: 11 Jan 2023Finally there is a sense of relief. The US inflation is just on a some-what downward spiral. It's almost as if we peaked at a whopping 9.1% and now dropping to around 6%. And let's not forget all our friends abroad, like Germany where it's dropped from 10. 4 in October down to 8.6%, UK dropping from 11.1% slightly down to 10.7%, Canada's 8.1 dropped to 6.8%, France's steady 6.2%, and China's decent1.6%. And let's not forget our lekker country, South Africa where inflation has also dropped from 7.8% down to 7.4%. It's just too bad all these numbers are due to supply chain issues, war, and food shortages. But it looks like we have potentially seen the end of The Great Inflation - and now things should start to settle. Your thoughts? Trade well, live free Timon (Trader since 2003)
ECONOMICS:USCCPIEducation
by Timonrosso
OUTSTANDING DEBT as % OF GDP: Annual 2023 Re-cap, forecastThe United States Government Debt is estimated to have reached 137.20 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2021. source: Office of Management and Budget, The White House Outstanding Sovereign Debt in the United States as a Percentage of GDP is a measure of a country's national debt in relation to its economic production. The significance of the United States' outstanding sovereign debt as a percentage of GDP in the global geo-economy is considerable, since the United States has one of the world's largest and most prominent economies. The stability and creditworthiness of the United States government has a direct influence on global financial markets and can affect other countries' capacity to acquire financing. Furthermore, the quantity of US sovereign debt can affect the value of the US dollar, which is the key reserve currency used by central banks worldwide. It is computed by dividing the total outstanding sovereign debt by the GDP of the country. This statistic is frequently used to examine a country's debt burden's sustainability, as a greater ratio might signal a higher chance of default. In the case of the United States, outstanding sovereign debt is the entire amount of money owed to creditors by the federal government, which includes both domestic and international holders of U.S. Treasury bonds. As of 2021, the outstanding sovereign debt in the United States was roughly $22 trillion, or nearly 105% of GDP. This signifies that the federal government of the United States owes more money than the entire worth of goods and services produced in a particular year. The significance of the United States' outstanding sovereign debt as a percentage of GDP in the global geo-economy is considerable, since the United States has one of the world's largest and most prominent economies. The stability and creditworthiness of the United States government has a direct influence on global financial markets and can affect other countries' capacity to acquire financing. Furthermore, the quantity of US sovereign debt can affect the value of the US dollar , which is the key reserve currency used by central banks worldwide. Overall, US outstanding sovereign debt as a proportion of GDP is an important economic statistic that measures the US government's capacity to satisfy its financial obligations while maintaining worldwide trust.
FRED:GFDEGDQ188S
by TayFx
1
US PMI : The one chart that says it ALLIt seems nearly all of the pieces to the puzzle is falling into place. The ISM is the most important LEADING indicator and now ALL is in contraction. Even those who display certain optimism about the state of the economy should now be in doubt. The sudden drop of the Non-Manufacturing PMI from 56.5 (November) to 49.6 (December) is certainly an indication of what is to come. This is certainly worrisome as 70% of the US economy is Services related. Outside of the US, most major countries are already reporting the same contraction. The FINAL piece to the jigsaw will be the one LAGGING indicator - the JOBS market. But there should be no doubt now that unemployment will soon rise. And with inflation continue to fall, we shall soon see the Fed change course. Good luck. P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
ECONOMICS:USNMPMI
by i_am_siew
1
Is it the bottom?The graph shows the fall in wage income relative to the rise in prices. We see a rapid decline in the income of citizens. Perhaps this is the effect of the January holidays, because. salaries haven’t yet arrived at the bank and therefore the 3rd week of January is the most depressing. This trend was observed in the period 1979-1981, and it was the bottom of social sentiment. There is one difference - in the past it coincided with the bottom in the stock markets, now, in our opinion, we haven’t reached it. What conclusion can be drawn from these statistics?
FRED:LES1252881600Q
by Financial_Wave
Money Supply Bull Flag ???Maybe this is a massive money supply flag. We have support on the ribbon. Stochastic RSI confirms it. I don't know if this even makes sense, since CURRCIR is a subset of M2SL. On the other hand, who would have thought that in 1990s currency in circulation would increase by 50% in less than a decade. Or is there a ceiling prohibiting more increase? Also look at the ratio between Europe's money supply and US. And my favorite, the most accurate retracement ever. Total "purchasing power" of Europe vs US. Just recently we have reached a perfect golden ratio. 1 in 10.000 accuracy. Maybe this is a harmonic pattern. Feel free to guide me as to what this might be. And how price might continue in the following months/years. A closeup view. Maybe Europe will print so much money that it diminishes its currency. This chart suggests that EURUSD is in reality much weaker than it seems. A lot of Euro is printed compared to Dollars. Maybe they get more hawkish than the US and increase rates to >5%. I am not sure... Prepare for unforeseen consequences I guess? - G-Man, Half-Life 2
FRED:CURRCIR
by akikostas
Leading Indicators - PPI (PPIACO) vs. Unemployment (UNRATE) I wanted to highlight how the peak (downward move) in the Producer Price Index (PPIACO) typically corresponds with the trough (upward move) in the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) (inverse correlation), as a period of Recession takes hold on the economy, & the financial markets. I also wanted to compare the above correlation with cycle tops in WTI Crude Oil (WTISPLC) , & also with respect to the OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM) — as this helps to pinpoint some of the historic baseline(s) for predicting the peak &/or trough in the business vs. market (financial) cycles. Here is the key for the attached chart(s): Top Chart Black Line (Unemployment Rate - UNRATE): *Black Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Trough Blue Line (Producer Price Index - PPIACO): *Blue Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Peak Orange Line (WTI Spot Crude - WTISPLC): *Orange Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Peak Red Shaded Areas (Recession): Indicator via @chrism665 Bottom Chart OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): *Black Dashed Line* = Pre-Recession Indicator Peak Green Horizontal Dotted Line = Expansion Baseline (100) Orange Horizontal Dotted Line = Current Reading (98.62) Red Horizontal Dotted Line = Danger Zone (<97) Red Shaded Areas (Recession): Indicator via @chrism665 Looking at the larger picture of both charts, you can see that typically in previous periods of Recession you would see this flow of the signals (first to peak/trough, last to peak/trough): Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM) Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) *Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO)* *Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC)* *Note* - As you can see PPIACO & WTISPLC are very closely correlated as demand peaks out, you then see a shift downward in WTISPLC as this is a signal of the topping of economic growth. Now let's dive close-up into each time period of recession, as we can see some linkages/similarities in the 1991, 2001, & 2009 recessions vs. the what is (likely) a 23' recession, depending how the economic , markets , & financial data plays out this upcoming year — potentially into 24'. 1991 Recession Timeline Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): July 1987 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Mar. 1989 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): Oct. 1990 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): Nov. 1990 2001 Recession Timeline Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Jan. 2000 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Apr. 2000 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): Nov. 2000 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): Jan. 2001 2009 Recession Timeline Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): May 2007 Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): June 2007 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): June 2008 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): July 2008 2023(24) Recession Estimated? Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): May 2021 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): June 2022 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): June 2022 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Sept. 2022 What do you think about this macro analysis? Have we potentially been in a recession in 22' — or are we moving closer to higher unemployment (UNRATE) in 23' as the macro/market conditions worsen, & the Federal Reserve's tighter monetary conditions (liquidity & credit) take their toll on the economy? Let me know what you think in the comments below! 👇🏼
FRED:UNRATEShort
by kylemusserco
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE vs SPXSo as you see - what comes down, must go up - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE is at record lows right now and when it did that - after some consolidation - it sttarted to grow - each time this happened, SPX entered a bear market. Calculating the amount of days since the breakout of the UNRATE trend - it is a range of ~ 100 to 400 days before starting the decline on SPX - right now it looks like UNRATE has broken the trend for more than 300 days already. So the decline isn't far. We haven't seen the worst yet.
FRED:UNRATE
by TheSecretsOfTrading