iran's inflation rateit looks like a horizontal diametric diamond pattern is evolving
that is also a trend reversing pattern
Economy
Piles Of Doo-DooThe Biden Admin has single-handedly destroyed the Economy in record time. Core Inflation soars UP 400% in the first 12 month's. The only way that can happen is intentionally. Yet, there are no lockdowns, a "vaccine" has been released and there is no WW3. Plans backfired, now it looks like everyone is standing around trying to dig all the dog shit out of their shoes. Sorry, it's your shit and it belongs to you and nothing can save you now.
This chart does not even include soaring Gas & Food prices which actually makes Inflation much worse than it's being portrayed here.
Excess Savings: Indication For Exceptional Inflation Expansion!Hi,
Welcome to this analysis about the current and upcoming economical situation regarding the excess savings amassed in the corona crisis and the potential inflationary developments these can cause. There are also other factors that can accelerate inflation in the upcoming times especially with the ongoing central bank money press that shoot to astronomically high levels during the corona pandemic and the months after, still ongoing there is not an end in sight. Since the corona breakdown lows established the money stock increased more and more and caused an asset-price inflation in stocks, bonds and real estate as well. Taking the following factors into consideration the inflation can also increase seriously in consumer goods and real economy such as already seen in individual sectors such as the craft sector.
Accumulated Excess Savings During The Corona Pandemic Crisis:
As seen in the graphic the Excess Savings, the savings that households hold and do not spend immediately increased drastically during the corona pandemic as businesses shut down people hoarded the excess savings. According to Moody's Analytics, the Excess Savings in America grew to almost 2.6 Trillion US-Dollar, and around the world, people build up Excess Savings of 5.4 Trillion US-Dollar. These savings are waiting to be spent when the real economy shut-down-businesses widely open again. It is necessary to assume that these are historical high values never seen before which can cause similar inflation like in the 1940s or 1970s. Besides the high Excess Savings, the federal depth increased also substantially to similar levels like in the 1940s which served as one factor for the high inflation.
High Demand And Low Supply As Production Decreased:
As production during the corona pandemic crisis decreased and a vast majority of countries moved on to shut down businesses this caused a decrease in production and therefore in supply. On the other side the Excess Savings, as well as the printed central bank money, increased steeply. These developed conditions have a high tendency to lead to increased inflation as high demand meets the low supply moving the prices to the upside also shown through the output gap which experts expect to rose above the 2% level increasing the high-demand-to-low-supply dynamic. It is highly necessary to do not underestimate these dynamics and be prepared for such potential scenarios to do not get overwhelmed by circumstances when they happen.
In this manner thank you, everybody, for watching the analysis, will be great when you support it, and all the best!
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
Oil Reserves Plummet to 40-year LowThe Biden Administration is treading on dangerous ground as it continues to deplete the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to levels not seen in decades, as geopolitical tensions flare and as global crude prices remain high.
The chart above shows that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has declined to levels not seen since the early 1980s.
The SPR is a tool used to alleviate the market impacts of both domestic and international disruptions, caused by among other things: weather, natural disasters, labor strikes, technical failures/accidents, or geopolitical conflicts.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response. This image is in the public domain.
Since the start of 2023, the SPR has drained by another 6.5% or 24 million barrels.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response. This image is in the public domain.
The SPR is comprised of 60 caverns, each one of which can fit the Willis Tower, one of the world's tallest skyscrapers.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response. This image is in the public domain.
The decision to withdraw crude oil from the SPR in the event of an energy emergency is made by the President under the authority of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) and done through competitive sale.
Perhaps what is so remarkable is that over the past 2 years, the Biden Administration has released nearly 300 million barrels of crude oil from the SPR, concurrent with the Federal Reserve undertaking the most extreme pace of monetary tightening on record in its attempt to maintain price stability, and yet crude oil prices have barely subsided.
In fact, in recent months, crude oil prices have surged, as shown in the chart below.
The global crude benchmark, TVC:UKOIL has been on an upward trajectory in recent months, soaring nearly 30% since June.
On the higher timeframe chart, we can see that crude oil prices show strong upward momentum. As soon as the Federal Reserve pivots back to monetary easing crude oil prices will likely resurge.
A log-linear regression channel is applied to the quarterly (3-month) chart of NYSE:OXY Petroleum, showing the current bull rally could just be the first leg of a multi-year upward trend. The red line in the middle represents the mean price and each gray line represents one standard deviation from the mean.
Perhaps the tendency of crude oil to rise in price over the coming years is why the Oracle of Omaha , Warren Buffet, began purchasing a large number of NYSE:OXY Petroleum shares in 2022, accumulating more than a 25% ownership stake in the company by mid-2023.
Some financial experts are sounding the alarm about the SPR depletion. The founder of The Bear Traps Report , Larry McDonald, has indicated that the drastic decline in U.S. oil stockpiles, a critical asset in times of conflict, undermines America's energy security.
McDonald is warning that diminishing domestic oil reserves heighten America's dependence on imports, potentially exposing the nation to severe supply disruptions and extreme price volatility in the international oil market. Each time the price of crude oil subsides, petroleum exporting countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, cut production to keep prices higher for longer.
To some, it may seem that these production cuts are a gray zone tactic meant to deplete an adversary of its strategic oil reserves before engaging them in a conflict.
There is also collateral damage occurring to the U.S. dollar. The petrodollar system, which emerged in the 1970s when the U.S. abandoned the last vestiges of its gold standard, was a series of agreements between the U.S. and petroleum exporting countries to use the U.S. dollar for cross-border oil transactions. Since almost every country needed to import or export some amount of petroleum, the petrodollar system was a means of ensuring a perpetual global demand for U.S. dollars despite the currency not being redeemable at the Federal Reserve for anything of value.
As crude oil prices continue to surge, despite the Federal Reserve tightening monetary conditions at the fastest pace on record, a crisis is unfolding for developing countries that lack access to dollars. These countries are on the precipice of hyperinflation. In essence, by tightening the supply of dollars the Federal Reserve is exporting inflation abroad, especially to those that lack easy access to dollars. Consequently, countries at the periphery of the dollar access hierarchy are being incentivized, now more than ever, to turn to alternative currencies, thereby accelerating de-dollarization.
As oil prices continue their relentless march upward, the scenario continues to exacerbate inflationary pressures in the U.S., and even more so, abroad. Higher prices could compel the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for much longer than anticipated, even in the face of deteriorating economic conditions and rising unemployment, resulting in stagflation. Exacerbating the situation further are global climate change policy objectives, which act as a disincentive for countries to increase domestic oil production.
If a major geopolitical conflict occurs when petroleum reserves are depleted and production is constrained, the outcome could result in severe stagflation, as prices spiral higher even though economic growth stagnates in the face of a fragmenting world.
* * *
Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
CPI All Items YoY : Update for AugustCPI All Items YoY : Update for August
CPI must stay under red line to stay under 3.7% YoY inflation rate.
The year ago values increase for the next two reports so the Fed gets a bit of breathing room.
Then they're back to playing on nightmare-mode for the Nov and Dec reports.
Starting in Jan report, it's smoother sailing for the next 7 months.
Yield Curve normalization and Stocks reaction $spy $tltAs long as the curve remains inverted stocks have a tail wind. It's the normalization that will crush stocks
Unemployment Rate at 54 yr low-Recession soon or not?A recession is not bullish for the overall market so studying how the civilian unemployment rate behaves before a recession hits should help tune out any and all noise from talking heads.
The red shaded areas in the above chart shows past recessions.
The red circles within this chart are times when the unemployment rate "flattened out" before either continuing downward or made an abrupt move upward.
The blue circles are "V shaped" type bottoms where there was just an abrupt jump in unemployment from one month to the next.
As you can see recessions always followed or were in the process once the abrupt move up in unemployment began.
The green dotted line shows the historical context of a 3.4% rate in unemployment.
As you can see on the far right, the current rate of unemployment has flattened out over the last 12 months, ranging between 3.4-3.7.
If you are bullish equities, you have to ask yourself...what is the macro thesis for this chart to continue downward as it did in the other cases where a recession was NOT followed by a flattening of the unemployment rate?
If you are bearish equities just know that this chart can remain within this range/stay flattened for another 9-25 more months before it abruptly moves upwards (like it did in the 1950's & 1960's). Perhaps the flattening out period even extends beyond a 3 year period.
Needless to say...I am on extra high alert for signs of an equity reversal based upon the above however I'm not going to fight the bullish market sentiment either. Always be nimble.
USM2 and SPX, "Printer goes Brrr"This in the past five years has been a very strong topping signal, I'm not sure if there's much more to add. The platform wants me to add some blurb to meet it's guidelines but what can I tell? The chart speaks for itself. Hope you've found it useful, it's certainly one of many things I have included into my market model.
For an understanding of the future, look to the past?Soft landing?
📊 Analyzing the US economy through key indicators:
SP500 📉: Historically drops before a recession.
Unemployment Rate 📈: Tends to spike during/after the onset of a recession.
ISM PMI 🚫: Values <50 often signal a contracting economy.
Yield Curve 🔄: Inversions have preceded past recessions.
While these correlations are strong, it's important to remember: Just because a recession was predicted in the past based on these, doesn't guarantee one now. Markets & economies evolve. Stay informed, not alarmed. See attached chart for insights!
Relationship between CPI and Oil price A rise in oil prices may cause the consumer price index (CIP) and Producer Price Index (PPI) higher.
Today US CPI climbed to 3.7% from 3.2% as Oil price continues to raise high since June 2023. Rising oil prices increase the cost of transporting goods and services, as a result the inflation raises high.
WTI CRUDE 88.73
BRENT CRUDE 92.09
MURBAN CRUDE 94.38
Producer Price index (PPI)
Sep 14, 2023 (Aug) 0.4 %( expect) 0.3 %( Previous)
We can expect coming PPI to rise higher than expected (0.4%) as there is a stronger correlation between oil prices and producer prices more than the correlation between the oil price and CPI as the (PPI) measures the average selling price from domestic producers and It can be directly linked to inputs.
Bitcoin Vs Recessions. We need more data. (sept2023)Bitcoin Vs Recessions. We need more recession data, Bitcoin has never existed during an official recession before (time of writing sept 2023) but we can use this chart to see future trends.. lets see how it works out!!!
Soft Landing?A lot of market participants are falling for the Fed's illusion that a soft landing has been achieved. However, the charts are still warning that a recession is coming.
The chart below shows the extreme degree of inversion between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. The current inversion is the worst in over 40 years.
A yield curve inversion reduces bank lending for various reasons, one of which is the removal of the incentive for banks to borrow at lower short-term rates and lend at higher long-term rates. Since bank credit is how most money comes into creation, a yield curve inversion is, therefore, a sign that monetary conditions are deteriorating. Indeed, manipulating the interest rate is how the central bank controls the money supply and induces a recession.
The impact of rate hikes always occurs on a lagging basis. The lag can last anywhere from several quarters to several years. As the infographic below shows, an economic recession will likely begin in the U.S. between Q4 2023 and Q4 2024.
The warning signs of the coming liquidity crisis are everywhere.
In a prior post (shown below), @SquishTrade and I pointed out that a major disparity between the volatility of bond prices and the volatility of equity prices is occurring. This extreme disparity could be a warning that much greater volatility for equity markets has yet to come.
Even for stocks that have experienced a strong rally in 2023, the basis of their surge is largely unsupported by dollar liquidity levels. In the chart below, the price of NASDAQ:NVDA is compared against the dollar liquidity index.
This is further confirmed by the below chart, which shows how extreme the price of NASDAQ:NVDA as a ratio to the price of a risk-free 10-year Treasury bond has become. Never before have investors been willing to pay so high of a risk premium to hold Nvidia's stock.
While anything is possible, the charts suggest that there isn't enough money in the economy to support the payment of debt at current yields. The below chart shows the price of long-term government Treasurys (adjusted for interest payments) as a ratio to the M2 money supply.
There is simply not enough money in the M2 money stock for market participants to be able to pay all newly issued debt at the current high rates. When the liquidity issues begin to mount, the Fed will quickly pivot back to new money creation, as it did in March 2023 when it abruptly created the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which is the latest of the many tools that the Fed uses to create new money.
However, when the economy begins to slow, this time around central banks will get trapped because of commodity price inflation. Although commodity prices are generally disinflating at the present time, this slow disinflation is merely forming a bull flag on the higher timeframes.
With unemployment also bull flagging on the higher timeframes, when commodity prices and unemployment concurrently break out, the result will definitionally be stagflation.
Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
Currency In Circulation Versus UraniumThis chart illustrates the way uranium miners are attracting more and more of the money supply. This is very bullish for uranium.
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Mastering Forex Trading Psychology for Consistent SuccessIntroduction:
Forex trading is not just about analyzing charts and economic data; it's also about understanding and managing the psychological aspects of trading. In this comprehensive guide, we will explore the crucial role psychology plays in forex trading and provide strategies to help you develop a disciplined and resilient trading mindset.
The Impact of Emotions in Forex Trading
* Emotion-Driven Decisions: Understand how emotions like fear, greed, and impatience can lead to impulsive and irrational trading decisions.
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* Revenge Trading: Avoid the urge to immediately recover losses with impulsive trades. Stick to your plan.
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* Market Education: Stay updated with forex market developments and continuously improve your trading skills.
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Conclusion:
Trading psychology is as critical as technical and fundamental analysis when it comes to achieving consistent success in forex trading. By understanding your emotions, developing emotional intelligence, and maintaining discipline, you can overcome psychological challenges and make more informed, rational trading decisions.
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$300 oil? Any time that we see oil increasing I feel like we see a few articles and posts predicting $200/barrel oil. Now we've got a Forbes article predicting $300/barrel oil. For fun, here are the peak searches for $200 and $300 oil over time vs WTI price.
QT into 2024 FED Balance sheet target 7.75 TRILLION Targeting FED Draw down towards 7.75 Trillion which equates to a 1.215 Trillion run off of the balance sheet. Coinciding well with the RREPO as the cushion
U.S. Unemployment crossing 20 month MA is usually very bearishHistorically, when unemployment crosses the 20 month moving average, a spike in unemployment follows in the next 12 months. These spikes in unemployment usually correspond with market downside in the S&P 500. The majority of the losses in the S&P usually happen early within the rise of unemployment. The recent rise of unemployment from 3.6 to 3.8 reported Friday September 1 2023 has put unemployment above the 20 month moving average.
This is an early warning sign for a possible recession in the next 12 months.
30-year mortgage rates are at 20+ year highsThis chart shows the 30-year mortgage rate. How important is this chart? Why does it matter? Well, to people like me, potential new home buyers, it's hard to overstate just how important this chart is.
I have to understand it.
If you already have a home at a low interest rate, congrats! Lucky you.
But for those searching the market, it's time to pay close attention, as it exerts a significant influence on various aspects of the housing market and individual financial decisions.
First and foremost, it directly impacts the price of houses. When mortgage rates are low, prospective homebuyers can afford larger loans, which drives up demand and, subsequently, home prices. Conversely, when rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive, which can cool down demand and put downward pressure on housing prices.
Furthermore, the 30-year mortgage rate plays a pivotal role in determining what individuals can afford. A higher interest rate translates to higher monthly mortgage payments, potentially limiting the purchasing power of potential buyers. This has ripple effects across the entire economy, even equity and crypto markets as now people have less and less to invest. The endless bid dries up a tad.
To get the point... I'm watching this chart closely. It's currently at 20+ year highs. And it could go even higher. Let's watch this closely.
Germany's Productivity is rekt since 2008Hello everyone,
I was curious today what the productivity of German labor is.
It crashed hard in 2008 and hasn't been able to improve much ever since.
Thanks to German politics, there is not enough investments being made that could increase workers productivity.
It's been in a range for long - I wonder how much longer it will take until German productivity sees new highs.
What do you think?
Job Openings, Unemployment Rate, and S&P CorrelationsHere is a graph showing the correlations between the leading indicators of the economy, Job Openings, Unemployment Rate, and the S&P.
It can be seen from the charts that the Job Openings (.a) historically begin to decline before there is any change in the unemployment rate. A simple explanation for this could be, less jobs, more people unemployed.
Once the unemployment rate begins to creep up (.b); historically this has led to a sell off in the S&P.
Higher for LongerUS inflation data in July 2023 provided mixed signals. While Consumer Price Index (CPI) is moving in the right direction, producer price inflation suggest pipeline pressures are picking up. Core CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, rose only 0.2% for a second month in a row . However, US producer prices picked up in July, owing to increases in certain service categories. This likely buys more time for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliberate on the future path of monetary policy.
The flows into bond exchange traded funds (ETFs) have been volatile. Over the past year, investors were starting to embrace duration. Investors were positioned for recession, inflation crash, and Fed cuts - evident from $31.7bn inflows to Treasury bond ETFs on pace for a record year2. However, investors are starting to pull out of the biggest bond ETFs devoted to Treasuries. More than $1.8 billion came out of the $39 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF last week, the most since March 20203. Sentiment toward long-dated Treasuries has soured over the past month amid growing conviction that the Fed will keep interest rates at elevated levels for an extended period. We expect rates to remain higher for longer and are unlikely to see the Fed cut rates until the Q1 of next year amidst a stronger US economy.
Don’t celebrate on disinflation just yet
Overall, the US economy continues to show extraordinary resilience despite monetary constraints and credit tightening. While inflation has shown encouraging signs of decline, we caution that the level remains high. Strong July retail sales raise the risk of a re-acceleration in inflation. The four biggest categories of the ex-auto’s component saw outsized gains: non-store retailers, restaurants & bars, groceries, and general merchandise. Amidst a tight US labour market, with unemployment at historic lows and wages continuing to rise, the downward pricing momentum in the service sector is likely to be at a slower rate. Commodity prices are also beginning to rebound from the weakness seen in Q2 2023. Energy prices have been rising on the back of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) production cuts. If commodity prices extend their recent momentum, it could pose upside risks to inflation.
Fed Officials remain divided
Messaging on a somewhat mixed inflation outlook from the Fed Officials remains a mixed bag. One faction remains of the view that rates hikes over the past year and a half has done its job while another group contends that pausing too soon could risk inflation re-accelerating. Fed governor’s Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller remain in the hawkish camp, hinting at more rate increases being needed to get inflation on a path down to the 2% target.
Futures markets are assigning about a 11% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike when the Fed next meets on 19 and 20 September4. Additionally, rate cuts have now been completely taken off the table until perhaps later in the Q1 2024. The latest Fed minutes reveal commentary from officials, including the hawks, such as Neel Kashkari, suggest a willingness to pause again in September, but to leave the door open for further hikes at the upcoming meetings5.
Opportunity for a yield seeking investor
It’s been an impressive turnaround since the pandemic when negative real yields became the norm. TINA- ‘There Is No Alternative’ to equities, is over now that evidence of the shift to a 5% world appears stronger than ever. Today investors have the opportunity to lock in one of the highest yields in decades, with US two-year yields paying close to 5% exceeding the yields at longer maturities without the volatility witnessed in the 10-year sector. A resilient US economy is likely to keep interest rates and bond yields higher for longer.
Sources
1 Bureau of Labour Statistics as of 10 July 2023
2 BofA ETF Research, Bloomberg as of 9 August 2022 - 9 August 2023
3 Bloomberg as of 14 August 2023
4 Bloomberg as of 17 August 2023
5 federalreserve.gov as of 16 August 2023
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
