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$GBINTR -U.K Interest RatesECONOMICS:GBINTR (December/2024) source: Bank of England The Bank of England left the benchmark bank rate steady at 4.75% during its December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations, as CPI inflation, wage growth and some indicators of inflation expectations had risen, adding to the risk of inflation persistence. The central bank reinforced that a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate and that monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The central bank will continue to decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$JPINTR - Japan's Interest RateECONOMICS:JPINTR (Devember/2024) source: Bank of Japan -The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its final meeting of the year, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and meeting market consensus. The vote was split 8-1, with board member Naoki Tamura advocating for a 25bps increase. Thursday's decision came despite the US implementing its third rate cut this year, as the BoJ needed more time to assess certain risks, particularly US economic policies under Donald Trump and next year's wage outlook. The board adhered to its assessment that Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery, despite some areas of weakness. Private consumption continued its upward trend, aided by improving corporate profits and business spending. Meanwhile, exports and industrial output remained relatively flat. On inflation, the YoY figures have ranged between 2.0% and 2.5%, driven by higher service prices. Inflation expectations showed a moderate rise, and the underlying CPI is expected to add gradually.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$USINTR - Fed's Third Rate Cut (December/2024)ECONOMICS:USINTR (December/2024) source: Federal Reserve -The Fed announced another 25bps cut to the federal funds rate in December 2024, marking the third consecutive reduction this year and bringing borrowing costs to the 4.25%-4.5% range, in line with expectations. The so-called dot plot indicates that policymakers now anticipate just two rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 basis points, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter. The Fed also revised its GDP growth forecasts upward for 2024 (2.5% vs to 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs 2%). The same trend applies to core PCE inflation, with forecasts raised for 2024 (2.8% vs 2.6%), 2025 (2.5% vs 2.2%), and 2026 (2.2% vs 2%). On the other hand, unemployment is seen lower this year (4.2% vs 4.4%) and in 2025 (4.3% vs 4.4%) while the forecast was kept at 4.3% for 2026.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY (November/2024) source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK edged up for a second month to 2.6% in November 2024 from 2.3% in October, matching forecasts. It is the highest inflation rate in eight months, with prices rising at a faster pace for recreation and culture (3.6% vs 3% in October), mostly admission fees to live music events and theaters and computer games; housing and utilities (3% vs 2.9%), particularly actual rents for housing; and food and non-alcoholic beverages (2% vs 1.9%). In addition, transport prices fell much less (-0.9% vs -1.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars were partially offset by a downward effect from air fares. Meanwhile, services inflation was steady at 5%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.1%, less than 0.6% in October and matching forecasts. The core CPI rose 3.5% on the year from 3.3% in October but below forecasts of 3.6%. On the month, core prices stalled.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Monetary Policy, Technological Advancements: Insights for 2025The Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics The financial landscape is increasingly influenced by both economic policies and technological advancements. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to continue reducing interest rates throughout the year. According to Robert R. Johnson, CEO of Economic Index Associates, projections based on the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool suggest a nearly 60% likelihood of interest rate cuts totaling at least 75 basis points by the end of 2025. These lower rates are poised to create favorable conditions for equity markets by reducing borrowing costs and encouraging consumer spending. Historically, sectors like automotive, apparel, and retail have demonstrated strong performance in such low-rate environments. Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies: Emerging Trends Blockchain technology, which underpins cryptocurrencies, is set to play a transformative role in 2025. Beyond its foundational applications in finance , blockchain is being adopted across logistics, public administration, real estate, and other industries to enhance data security and operational efficiency. This expanding adoption is likely to benefit sectors such as chip manufacturing, cryptocurrency exchanges, and mining companies. As blockchain integration becomes more prominent, investors should monitor how this technology reshapes traditional economic processes and drives value creation across industries. AI and Automation: Catalysts for Transformation Artificial intelligence (AI) and automation continue to emerge as defining technological forces . In 2024 alone, major tech companies allocated $200 billion to AI initiatives. These investments are expected to democratize access to automation and machine learning, generating measurable business outcomes and reshaping industries. Arron Bennett, financial strategist and CFO of Bennett Financials, emphasizes that successful AI implementations will act as catalysts for operational and financial transformation. Early adopters of AI, cloud computing providers, and developers of advanced software and hardware are particularly well-positioned to capitalize on these trends. A Unified Perspective for 2025 Investors in 2025 will face a complex interplay of macroeconomic policies, technological breakthroughs, and evolving regulatory environments. Federal Reserve actions, including potential interest rate reductions, will redefine the cost of capital and market liquidity. Simultaneously, advancements in blockchain and AI promise to create transformative opportunities, reshaping industries and fostering innovation. Key themes such as tariffs, tax policies, and deregulation will also influence corporate profitability and consumer behavior. By remaining vigilant and adaptable, market participants can navigate uncertainties and leverage emerging opportunities to enhance their portfolios. Success in 2025 will depend on a balanced approach that considers both traditional economic factors and groundbreaking technological changes. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL NYSE:AI
FRED:EFFRLong
by juliakhandoshko
$EUINTR -Europe's Interest Rates (December/2024)ECONOMICS:EUINTR (December/2024) source: European Central Bank The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to cut its key interest rates for the fourth time this year by 25 bps in December 2024, as expected. This move reflects a more favorable inflation outlook and improvements in monetary policy transmission. Inflation is expected to gradually decrease, with forecasts of 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is also expected to fall, with a target of 2% in the medium term. Despite easing financing conditions due to the rate cuts, borrowing costs remain tight due to previous hikes still affecting existing loans. Economic recovery is projected to be slower than before, with growth expected at 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, and 1.4% in 2026. The ECB remains focused on ensuring inflation returns to its 2% target and will adjust its policies based on incoming data, without committing to a fixed rate path.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
We have had the recession already; it's not yet to comeThis is an interesting chart. I don't think it is anything like charting stocks but there is a clear linear trend channel/line that M2 supply has been following. It is supposed to follow GDP growth to stabilise inflation but we all know the Fed doesn't always get it right and the two yoyo about the trendline. However, what is interesting is that we have had the largest drop in M2 in history over the last two years; there has barely ever even been a drop before; only a brief flat line. This makes it clear that we have been in recession for two years. The apparent stockmarket and crypto hype is not a result of excessive printing but rather a change in the way money in the economy is distributed; it is not being lent out for business but rather to buy assets instead. At the same time we have seen taxation and regulation that disincentivises entrepreneurs and favours existing conglomerates. I think this trend will accelerate as AI and robotics start to take on responsibility for producing goods and services and human beings simply trade assets with their money instead. Food for thought...
ECONOMICS:USM2
by cultureofwoods
Willshire5000 - the extended Buffett indicator - SPX 6084How to read the Char. In the main pan, there we find the ratio built by Willshire5000 divided by global Gross Domestic. As you know, the Buffett indicator is built by the ratio built by Willshire5000 divided by GDP USA. Meantime, together with the strong globalization, various experts thinking, that US companies make a lot of there revenues in foreign countries. And GDP US contains this not exactly. Example: an big company is contained in the willshire5000 as a price, but runrover etc. Is contained in a other country. Whatever: the extended Buffett Indicator is for sure and in a relatively sight in the amount better than the US GDP to measure a relative economic performance. Very impressive: This indicator shows only two times an extreme irrational Exuberation, as marked in the chart below and the marked losses in SPX. 100% for sure: we are very close to a third irrational exuberation. Big big troubles in US Market ahead. Dan, 12. dec. 24
FRED:WILL5000PRShort
by Flyerdan
Stoxx600 and M3 EUM3 contains more asset classes than M2. So, to find the signs to bubble, in a point of historical view, it might be better, to compare value of equities with M3. Therefore you see below, what it means. Market crisis/crashes are marked. The differences from 2007/08 to others: there we had an Interbanken problem: no one trusted each other and was not willing to overtake overnight credits. Second: the fed announced, to take several repo papera from the list, which means big problems for some primary dealers. All in all it was not a problem of to much money in the system, the problem was, that some money was on wrong places. Panic driven at the end. Whatever: actually, no doubt, we have to much money in the system.
FRED:WILL5000PRShort
by Flyerdan
Fed Funds Before CPICPI will be an important event tomorrow an hour before open. I believe the most important thing will be the reaction of the fed fund futures. Currently the target rate is sitting at 4.64 and the market is pricing in an 86% chance of that rate moving down to between 4.25-4.50. As long as this expectation remains, I think we'll have a bullish to flat end to the week. Downside would come if rate cut expectations changed due to an unexpected report. That would be a major shift right before the fed meeting so that seems unlikely, but it will be important to watch.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by AdvancedPlays