Market indices
MOVE INDEX BONDS SET TO HAVE CRISIS The chart of the move index aka BOND VIX is showing a high level of Complacency as the bonds are in sharp decline phases The worst is yet to come as the Panic in the debt markets has not been seen. Inflation and deep recession is in my model and forecast for the next 18 plus months .
SPX - H4 - keep going upMy analysis shows that the SPX may have a few days sideways but will shoot up to 6260 as the next resistance.
Focus Shifts to Greenback and the 10-year TreasuryThe Federal Reserve triggered violent drops in stocks yesterday and two key charts could be attempting important breakouts.
We first consider the U.S. Dollar Index with weekly candles. There’s a falling trendline along the peaks of October 2023 and late April. DXY rallied through that resistance and turned it into support earlier this month. That may be consistent with an uptrend.
Second, DXY has advanced in 11 of the last 12 weeks. That could also suggest direction is accelerating higher.
Third, some traders may now eye the October 2022 high around 114 as the next key level.
Next is the 10-year Treasury Yield with 3-day candles (to clearly display almost 2 years of history):
A falling channel began in late 2023 at the same time stocks began their latest rally, but TNX didn’t reach the lower end of the channel. That was the first sign that yields might still be rising.
TNX also failed to reach its March 2023 low and refused to stay below its December 2023 low.
The index dipped last month but held its mid-July low above 4 percent.
Next comes the historically important long-term peak of 4.34 percent from the start of the Global Financial Crisis. After that, TNX closed above its November daily high.
Each of those points additionally suggest that that yields are moving higher. They also shift attention to the next big level near 5 percent from October 2022.
Given the importance of DXY and TNX for risk appetite, some traders may find potentially useful intermarket signals on their charts.
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US30 Falls to 42200 and is now in buyers ZoneUS30 Falls yesterday causing much of the traders to lose their bullish trades. The market faked like it wanted to go bullish but slid over 250 points. Price is currently closer to support 42300 and is likely to continue to consolidate between here and 92900. This is a zone to take small intraday trades to make up for any losses sustained with yesterday's slide.
For bullish confirmation look for a retest above 42900.
Be careful by paying attention to look for higher highs and higher lows.
Be safe out there. Good trading.
SPX path from here 12/6/2024Refer to the chart for two potential scenarios in the SPX:
Bullish Scenario: A break and sustained hold above 6100 could confirm an upward move.
Bearish Scenario: The current level may act as resistance, leading to a gap fill at 6050, followed by a retest, offering a strong shorting opportunity targeting 5750-5850.
CAC 40 Drops Hard! Fed's New Tone Sparks Sharp DeclineCAC 40 (French Index) on a 1-hour timeframe initiated a short trade using the Risological Trading Indicator. The sharp decline aligns with fundamental market dynamics influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy stance.
Trade Highlights:
Entry : Short position initiated based on bearish sentiment.
Current Trend: Sharp downward movement observed.
Reasons for Decline:
At 8:15 AM, the December futures contract for the CAC 40 fell 110.5 points, settling at 7277.5 points, indicating a 1%+ decline at the open.
The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rates for the third time this year, reducing them to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a "new phase" of monetary policy, characterized by a slower pace of rate cuts, contrary to market expectations.
Updated projections show only two rate cuts next year, compared to the four previously anticipated by investors, fueling bearish momentum.
[Education] The Brutal Truth About Trading DisciplineHere's what nobody tells you about trading discipline. It's not about motivation or willpower. You can't just "try harder" to be disciplined. If it were that simple, everyone would be profitable by now.
Think about these scenarios. You see a setup forming but it's not quite perfect. You take the trade anyway because "close enough is good enough". Your stop loss is about to get hit, but you move it because you "feel" the market will reverse. You're down for the week and decide to risk 5% instead of your usual 1% to "recover losses".
Sound familiar? These aren't strategy problems. These are discipline problems.
Why Discipline Is Harder Than It Looks
When you're backtesting, everything seems easy. You can fast forward. Drawdowns can be recovered easily. You don't feel the emotional impact of losing trades. You're not watching your real money disappear.
But in live trading, every loss feels personal. It sucks when you miss an opportunity that could have given you a homerun trade. When a winning trade turns into a loss, you feel like pulling out your hair.
I remember one trade where I had a perfect setup. Everything aligned with my trading plan. I got greedy. I didn’t close my trade at 2R profit as planned. I held onto the trade. The market reversed. My winning trade turned into a loss.
That one moment of indiscipline cost me $500. But the real cost was much higher. It damaged my confidence and made me doubt my strategy.
The Hidden Cost of Lack of Discipline
Let's talk numbers. A strategy with 40% win rate and 1:2 RRR is profitable. However, if you cut winners early, that same strategy becomes a losing one. Instead of closing at 1:2 RRR, you closed at 1:1 RRR. With an average of 1:1 RRR, you need at least a 50% win rate to be breakeven. Things will get worse if you increase risk. If you increase your risk and lose, that one bad trade can wipe out a month of profits.
The Framework That Changed Everything
After blowing multiple accounts, I developed this simple framework that transformed my trading:
Pre-Trade Checklist
Write down entry, stop loss, and target BEFORE entering
Calculate position size based on 1% risk
Take a screenshot of your analysis
Compare setup with your trading plan
During Trade Management
No looking at charts if you're set-and-forget
No moving stop losses unless to breakeven
No adding to losing positions
No checking P&L constantly
Post-Trade Review
Journal every trade, win or lose
Score yourself on discipline, not profits
Review weekly to identify patterns
Celebrate when you follow rules, regardless of outcome
The Psychology Behind Discipline
Here’s something interesting. When I trade funded accounts, my discipline improves dramatically. Why? Because it's not my money. I treat it like a business. It’s capital I would lose if I am not disciplined with my trades.
This taught me something crucial. To be disciplined, you need to trade like a business, not a gambler. You have to focus on the process, and not the outcomes. You won’t be able to predict the outcome anyway. Accept that losses are part of trading. They are your business expenses. Once you’ve accepted that losing is inevitable, you will be able to keep your emotions out of trading.
Taking Action: Your Next Steps
Here’s what you should do next after learning from my framework. First, start small. Use a demo account to practice following rules. If you want to trade live, then trade minimal size while you build your discipline in trading. Only scale up when you can follow your plan for 20 trades straight. If you break your rules for 1 trade, restart the whole process. Next, create accountability for yourself. Share your trades with a mentor or trading buddy. Post your analysis online before entering trades. Review your trades at the end of the week. See if you have broken any of your trading rules this week. Lastly, build better habits. Set up your trading environment for success by removing distractions during trading hours. Keep your phones and social media away from you. Create a pre-trade ritual. That can be meditating, or simply just close your eyes. Remember to also reward yourself for following rules, not for profits.
The Transformation You Can Expect
When you are disciplined, your equity curve becomes smoother. You will not see a big drop in your equity curve due to excessive loss taken on 1 trade. Your stress levels decrease and confidence increases. You aren’t afraid of being wrong and being FOMO’d into entering earlier. As such, your results become consistent.
Remember, every successful trader you admire has gone through this same journey. The difference between them and the 95% who fail isn't their strategy. It's their discipline.
I'm now managing multiple six-figure funded accounts, not because I found a better strategy, but because I finally learned to follow my rules.
The question isn't whether you know what to do. It's whether you can do what you know you should do.
Nifty | Pre-Market Report | 23 Dec ~ 27 Dec 2024Nifty has been massacred by the brutal selling last week!
If we look at the weekly chart, the weekly candle close has wiped out the last one month of Buying in a single blow!
This clearly has signalled that we are in a Bear Market Grip.
For the upcoming week, Nifty seems likely to trade between 24,400 & 23,155.
The sentiment would be Sideways to Bearish.
Option sellers could benefit from Straddles on a Weekly Expiry basis.
Option buyers should look for reversals at boundaries for best risk reward opportunities.
Presently Nifty is at the crucial Neck line on the Weekly Charting basis which is also the 50 Week Moving Average zone.
Looking at the intensity of previous week's crash, this upcoming week could be a pause and then we could have a further downside crash towards 22,600 which is the 50% zone of the long term Weekly charting trend.
If 22,600 doesn't hold then we will ultimately find good support around 22,000 level which is also the 100 Week Moving Average.
NAS100 DEC 23 -27 MARKET BREAKDOWNAnalysis Based on the Chart:
1. Bullish Context:
The overall trend is bullish, and the market has recently pulled back to a key support zone:
• The 50% Fibonacci retracement level aligns with both historical support and a daily bullish order block (OB).
• Price action respecting this level suggests a potential continuation to the upside.
2. Daily Break of Structure (BOS):
The BOS on the daily timeframe confirms a shift to bullish momentum, indicating that higher highs could be the next target.
3. Liquidity Sweep:
The sharp pullback appears to have cleared out liquidity (stop-loss clusters from retail traders) below the recent swing low. This is a common pattern before a bullish push.
4. Confluences for Entry:
• The pullback to the Fibonacci 50% level gives a high-probability entry point.
• The price has respected both dynamic support (trendline) and horizontal support at the bullish OB.
Monday banknifty signals Monday 🚀🫶🏻
Nifty Bank Trade Setup:
🔹 Entry: Take entry only if the price sustains above 50,872.45 (wait for a 45-min candle close above this level).
🔹 Stop Loss (SL): Place SL below 50,622.35.
🔹 Target 1 (T1): 51,558.65
🔹 Target 2 (T2): 52,790.25
📌 Note: Enter the trade only after proper confirmation and strong volume. If the price goes below the SL level, cancel the trade. Always follow risk management!
Monday , bank nifty signal Monday 🚀🫶🏻
Nifty Bank Trade Setup:
🔹 Entry: Take entry only if the price sustains above 50,872.45 (wait for a 45-min candle close above this level).
🔹 Stop Loss (SL): Place SL below 50,622.35.
🔹 Target 1 (T1): 51,558.65
🔹 Target 2 (T2): 52,790.25
📌 Note: Enter the trade only after proper confirmation and strong volume. If the price goes below the SL level, cancel the trade. Always follow risk management!
USD$ is set to rise. On Monday I said the opposite: Falling
I stand corrected on what I published last Monday right before the Asia session, I think a rushed analysis and when you see what you want to see in a chart to support an idea, it can all go wrong. Or did the USD$ have such a bullish week to turn the charts around in such a short space of time.
I don't know but both the Daily and Weekly chart of the USDX have a very bullish W/Bottom. For those who don't know these patterns, they are basically a double/bottom or bottom1 & a bottom 2 and a W is formed as price is written up to a Neckline which is the yellow lines on the daily and weekly charts here.
I initially thought and stated that the USD$ may run up to 1.11 /1.12 and from a technical standpoint of these W/bottoms that is exactly where price may end up. But lots can happen in the meantime.
Briefly on Gold and Silver:
The Gold price has turned around bullishly after turning down in a Double/Top for many days. This turnaround also coincides with the bottom trend-line which is also the bottom line of a Triangle formation on the daily. Next trading day I would expect Gold to continue to climb for a couple of sessions before turning back down to the trend line and bottom of Daily-triangle which is all but complete and price would then either breakdown or breakout from triangle. I think that despite the USD$ continuing to climb, the Gold price will do the same thing and climb but probably won't go to an ATH just yet.
Silver has a bearish Head n Shoulders on the Daily. Price will retest the sell area next session on the daily which means the Silver price will get a false Long rally and selling will resume into the daily H n S pattern. The Silver price is right on the daily 200ema and back in January and February 2024 price got a little below the 200ema and then took off on a Long rally. Same thing expected, the HnS will play out and price will fall back a little more and then a buying spree and rally upwards will commence in Silver, possible just before the New Year.
nifty next move white line support red line to sell price nifty will dance accordingly plz be carefully n trade safely with proper risk reward
nifty next move white line support red line to sell price
BANKNIFTYValid till Dec 2024 Expiry
Possible of retesting zone upwards and then probably going further down
Time for dnside can be extended further
NQ-NASDAQ Levels week commencing 23/12/24I hope this chart provides clear simple levels to trade or fade
Urgent Dji correction incoming We will see some pain very soon
We are going to see a ABC correction on the s/p 500 as well.
Nasdaq price is hovering around trendline support.Nasdaq price is hovering around trendline support. It may retrace from here
BANKEX S/R for 23/12/24Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline.
Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down.
Breakouts:
Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold.
Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying.
MA Ribbon (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200) :
Above EMA: If the stock price is above the EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum.
Below EMA: If the stock price is below the EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum.
Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set.
Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward.
Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SENSEX S/R for 23/12/24Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline.
Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down.
Breakouts:
Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold.
Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying.
MA Ribbon (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200) :
Above EMA: If the stock price is above the EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum.
Below EMA: If the stock price is below the EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum.
Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set.
Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward.
Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
MIDCAP NIFTY S/R for 23/12/24Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline.
Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down.
Breakouts:
Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold.
Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying.
MA Ribbon (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200) :
Above EMA: If the stock price is above the EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum.
Below EMA: If the stock price is below the EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum.
Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set.
Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward.
Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
FINNIFTY S/R for 23/12/24Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline.
Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down.
Breakouts:
Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold.
Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying.
MA Ribbon (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200) :
Above EMA: If the stock price is above the EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum.
Below EMA: If the stock price is below the EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum.
Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set.
Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward.
Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
BANK NIFTY S/R for 23/12/24Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline.
Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down.
Breakouts:
Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold.
Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying.
MA Ribbon (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200) :
Above EMA: If the stock price is above the EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum.
Below EMA: If the stock price is below the EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum.
Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set.
Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward.
Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
