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Collapse of the S&P! Can it hold? S&P 500 www.tradingview.com Drops to 6000 : Just as We Predicted The S&P 500 has hit the 6000 level, right in line with the scenario we discussed earlier. This critical support, reinforced by the 200-period moving average on the hourly chart, is proving to be a key battleground. If you’ve been following our previous idea, you’ll remember we anticipated this pullback to 6000, calling it a likely turning point for the index forming a head and shoulders pattern And here we are, watching the prediction unfold. A bounce here could break the head and shoulders. Now, the big question is whether 6000 will hold. If it does, we could see a rebound toward 6100 or beyond. If it breaks, 5900 or 5800 could be the next stops. Either way, this moment underscores how crucial strong analysis is for navigating markets like this one. Fed announcements may play a role in rhe direction we go. Let's see how it plays out.
SP:SPXShort
by StonkMarketParty
Nas fundamental idea, sell now 22033, target 21700Tomorrow we will have FOMC. So today US session can be pretty volatile, because of "repositioning". Be careful with opening new positions and especially with sizing. Personally Im expecting a pause in December and cut 0.25-0.50 in January. Contrary to market expecting 0.25 tomorrow. The reasons are two. Sticky inflation + Donald. Inflation is higher than in forecasts(also NFP, GDP are higher) and these alltogether giving FED "free hand" to get inflation under control by a pause. Second reason, Donald will push FED(however independent) to cut, cut, cut. So this is the last chance not to cut, because Joe really does not care nowadays. Donald wants american cars, products, tits not EU, CAD or Chinese. It means duty. Also wants lower taxes = higher consuption. All these steps are super inflatory. Sounds good for voters, bad for economy. These are the reasons Im expecting a pause. You can think about them but surely do your own plan to trade FOMC. This is mine.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Rendon1
NASDAK 1HTFShort-term outlook: Positive (bullish) scenario: In case of a clear break and stability above 22,050, the upward momentum may continue towards 22,400 and then 22,600 levels. Negative (bearish) scenario: In case the price fails to stabilize above 22,000, a decline may occur towards the support levels at 21,600. Recommendation: Scalpers: Follow the price closely around 22,000 levels, and enter with confirmation of resistance breakout or wait for a bounce from support. Investors: Maintain a positive outlook as long as the uptrend continues and higher highs and lows are formed
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by absiko
(GET READY) Expected move for FOMC today in SPXSince making all-time highs on December 6, SPX has been consolidating back to the 30 minute 200 moving average and check out the 35 EMA today. We’ve been chopping around that 35 EMA on our trip back to the 30 minute 200MA average and they are right at the same level today. We are at a very critical point. Do we bounce here? Or do we break this 30 minute 200 moving average. The top of the implied move is at 6095 just underneath that we have a resistance at 6085 when we fill that gap 6015 for tomorrow so 6095, 6115 could be a place to look if you’re looking to sell spreads today on the move And then underneath us 6005, 5995 those are the two levels at the bottom of the trading range and the one hour 200 average is also there
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
VIX inverse related to BTCUSD - with reference to my last postIn my last post I showed the inverse relationship of BTCUSD to the VIX. Looking on the current price trend of BTC and relate VIX/BTCUSD, we want "to make a shoe out of it". I related therefore the VIX to BTCUSD instead of BTCUSD to the VIX to put following question accross: - Given the fact that BTCUSD and VIX are inversely related - how deep do you think the VIX can fall from its present level? (focus as well on the rythmic cycle sequences of the VIX). - Can it go down below 12? Then of course BTC can go up to 120.000 US$ or higher! - What will it take for BTC to go to projected levels like 200.000 US$ or more of some optimistic fellows? VIX to high levels above 35 (and for BTCUSD to drop to say 85.000 US$) and then to rise sharply while VIX is coming down. Play with this kind of thoughts - it will help you to see light in the present jungle of wild BTC projections. Have fun.....
CBOE:VIX
by Woerle
S&P 500 - Forming a Bullish Flag or Pennant but not clear. Top?The S&P 500 appears to be moving very horizontal at the moment, possibly forming a bullish flag or pennant. However, the pattern is a little too horizontal to be clear, so its also possible this is a short term top of the market, possibly for end of the year profit taking and covering tax liabilities. A look back in the last 10 years of chart history does not show another example of the S&P 500 moving this clearly horizontal. The pattern has clear lower highs but the support line is razor sharp almost as if its artificial. Trade with caution.
SP:SPX
by swineninety9
NIFTY 50 19th DECEMBER 2024 Yellow Zone (24,285.45 - 24,259.40): This is a neutral or consolidation zone. If the price breaks above this zone with volume, it might move towards the Red Zone (Resistance levels). Red Zone (24,488.20 - 24,367.50): This acts as a resistance area. If the price reaches this zone, watch for rejection or a breakout above it for further upside. Green Zones (Support levels): 24,086.40 - 24,049.00 (Upper green zone): Immediate support area; a break below this may push the price lower. 23,915.80 - 23,872.85 (Lower green zone): Stronger support, indicating a potential reversal zone.
NSE:NIFTY
by trade_geeks
BANKNIFTY : Levels, prediction and Plan for 19-Dec-2024Intro: Previous Day's Plan vs Actual In yesterday's trading plan, BankNifty tested the Wave C Support Zone near 51,903 - 52,068 as highlighted in yesterday's trading plan, showing indecision within the sideways range (Yellow Trend). As expected, the index respected the completion zone for Wave C and stayed above the support area for most of the session. However, no clear breakout or breakdown occurred. Now, for 19-Dec-2024, we will plan for three potential opening scenarios: Gap Up, Flat, and Gap Down, considering a gap opening of 200+ points. The key levels and actionable strategies are explained below. Trading Scenarios for 19-Dec-2024 Gap Up Opening (200+ points): If Bank Nifty opens above the Resistance for Sideways Trade at 52,647, it indicates bullish sentiment. - Monitor the first 30 minutes for a sustained breakout above this level. If the price holds above 52,647, the next target will be the Last Intraday Resistance at 53,039. - However, failure to sustain above 52,647 may lead to a retracement back to the Opening Resistance at 52,381. - Action Plan: - Initiate long positions only if an hourly candle closes above **52,647**, with targets at **53,039**. - If price fails to sustain and shows weakness, wait for retracement back to **52,381** for possible re-entry opportunities. Flat Opening: If Bank Nifty opens near the Opening Resistance at 52,381, it signals indecision, and price may move sideways (Yellow Trend) before providing direction. - A breakout above 52,381 can trigger a move toward the Resistance for Sideways Trade (52,647), while a breakdown below 52,205 (previous close) could drag prices back toward the Wave C Completion Zone at 52,068 - 51,903. - Action Plan: - Avoid trading immediately after the open. Let price break above **52,381** for bullish trades, targeting **52,647**. - A breakdown below **52,205** could signal short opportunities with targets at **52,068** and **51,903**. - Manage risk by placing stops based on an hourly candle close above/below these levels. Gap Down Opening (200+ points): If Bank Nifty opens near or below the Wave C Completion Zone (52,068 - 51,903), it signals bearish momentum. - Look for signs of support formation in this zone, as prices could take a reversal from here (Green Trend). - Failure to hold 51,903 could lead to further downside towards the critical support at 51,418 (red trend). - Action Plan: - Look for long opportunities if Bank Nifty holds above **51,903** with confirmation (hourly close), targeting a bounce back to **52,205** and then **52,381**. - If price decisively breaks below **51,903**, consider short trades toward **51,418**, with a strict stop loss above **52,068**. Risk Management Tips for Options Traders : Use spreads like Bull Call Spreads for bullish moves or Bear Put Spreads for downside moves to limit risks in volatile openings. Avoid trading during the first 15-30 minutes if opening is erratic or near key levels like the Wave C zone. Let the price stabilize. Always place stop losses on an hourly candle close basis for better risk management. Avoid over-leveraging; focus on maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio (minimum 1:2). Summary and Conclusion: Bank Nifty remains at a crucial juncture near the Wave C Completion Zone. Key Levels to Watch: Upside: 52,381, 52,647, 53,039 Downside: 52,205, 52,068, 51,903, and 51,418 Yellow Trend reflects sideways price action, Green Trend signals bullish reversals, and Red Trend highlights bearish continuation. Focus on price action near key levels, and avoid trading in uncertain zones. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only. Traders should conduct their analysis or consult a financial advisor before making decisions.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by LiveTradingBox
NIFTY : Prediction levels and plan for 19-Dec-2024 Intro: Previous Day's Plan vs Actual In yesterday's chart, we observed Nifty approaching a deep retracement zone (113% level at 24,098) and tested the must-try zone for Wave C completion as highlighted. Price remained within the "No Trade Zone" for a considerable period, indicating indecision and sideways movement. The sideways yellow trend was respected, with no significant breakout. Now, for 19-Dec-2024, we will plan the opening scenarios considering a gap opening of 100+ points in either direction, or a flat opening, using key levels for action. Trading Scenarios for 19-Dec-2024 Gap Up Opening (100+ points): If Nifty opens above the Opening Resistance for Retracement at 24,359, this signals initial strength. - Monitor the first 30 minutes for price action confirmation. If Nifty sustains above 24,359, we may see a move towards the Last Intraday Resistance at 24,488 (red level). - Aggressive traders can look for long opportunities with a stop loss placed at 24,227 (blue level) on an hourly candle-close basis. - However, failure to sustain above 24,359 can lead to a retracement back towards the No Trade Zone (24,169). - Action Plan: - If the price closes an hourly candle above **24,359**, initiate longs with **targets** at **24,488**. - If it fails to hold above, avoid fresh trades and wait for price to return to the retracement zone. Flat Opening: If Nifty opens near the No Trade Zone (24,169 - 24,227), caution is required. A sideways price action is likely within this range. - Price needs to break out from this "No Trade Zone" to give clear direction. - Upside breakout above 24,227 could lead to a retracement test towards 24,359. - Downside breakdown below 24,169 can trigger a test of the Wave C correction zone at 24,098 - 24,029. - Action Plan: - Avoid trading in the "No Trade Zone" to minimize risk. - For longs, wait for a confirmed breakout above **24,227**. - For shorts, wait for a breakdown below **24,169**, targeting **24,098** first and then **24,029**. Gap Down Opening (100+ points): If Nifty opens near or below the Must Try Zone at Wave C completion (24,098 - 24,029), it signals a bearish start. - Watch for signs of support formation in this range. A strong bounce can lead to a reversal back toward 24,169. - However, if Nifty fails to hold this zone and breaks 24,029, further downside towards 23,600 could unfold (red trend). - Action Plan: - Look for buying opportunities if price holds above **24,029** with confirmation on the hourly chart. - If **24,029** breaks decisively, initiate short positions targeting **23,600**, with a stop loss above **24,098**. Risk Management Tips for Options Traders : Always use stop losses based on an hourly candle close to manage risks. Avoid trading in uncertain zones (e.g., "No Trade Zone") where the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable. For options, consider deploying spreads (e.g., Bull Call Spread or Bear Put Spread) to limit risk during gap openings. Avoid chasing trades in case of a sharp gap-up or gap-down; let the price stabilize for 30 minutes. Summary and Conclusion: Nifty remains at a critical juncture near the Wave C correction completion zone. Key Levels to Watch: Upside: 24,227, 24,359, 24,488 Downside: 24,169, 24,098, 24,029, and 23,600 Focus on breakouts or breakdowns for actionable trades, avoiding sideways moves. The yellow trend reflects sideways movement, green indicates a bullish reversal, and red shows bearish continuation. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only. Traders should conduct their analysis or consult a financial advisor before making decisions.
NSE:NIFTY
by LiveTradingBox
How to Trade Lower Liquidity Festive MarketsWith the festive season upon us, there tends to be a natural decline in trading activity as many market participants step away to enjoy the holidays. This change in rhythm creates unique market dynamics, offering traders an opportunity to observe and adapt to a different set of conditions. Liquidity often decreases during this time, which can influence price behaviour, spreads, and volatility. Understanding these shifts can help you approach the markets with greater awareness and flexibility, whether you decide to trade actively or simply observe from the sidelines. What Happens in Lower Liquidity Markets? Lower liquidity means there are fewer buyers and sellers actively participating in the market. As a result, price movements can become less predictable. Even a relatively small order can cause larger-than-expected moves, creating the potential for heightened volatility. Spreads—particularly in less-traded instruments—may also widen, increasing transaction costs. This is something to keep an eye on, especially if you trade in smaller-cap stocks, emerging market currencies, or commodities with seasonal demand swings. However, it’s not all about increased volatility and wider spreads. Lower liquidity can also bring periods of calm to typically active markets, especially in the absence of major news or data releases. Adapting to the Festive Markets The key to navigating festive markets is adaptability. Here are some practical tips to help you stay on top of your trading this Christmas: 1. Focus on Major Markets and Instruments During periods of reduced liquidity, larger markets like major currency pairs or blue-chip stocks tend to remain more stable than smaller, niche instruments. Staying with these higher-liquidity markets can reduce the risk of unexpected price swings. 2. Be Selective with Trades The festive season isn’t the time to chase every opportunity. Instead, focus on high-quality setups and avoid overtrading. Patience can be your biggest asset when market conditions are unpredictable. 3. Adjust Your Risk Management Lower liquidity markets can lead to greater volatility, which means a single price move might reach your stop-loss or take-profit levels more quickly than expected. Consider adjusting your position sizes or widening your stop-loss levels to account for this. That said, any changes to your risk management approach should align with your overall trading strategy. 4. Keep an Eye on Key Levels In quieter markets, price tends to gravitate towards well-defined support and resistance levels. These levels often become even more significant, as fewer participants can break through them. 5. Pay Attention to News Events Even during the festive season, economic data releases and news events can spark movement. With fewer participants, the impact of these events may be amplified, so it’s worth staying informed. Useful Indicators for Festive Markets Using technical indicators can provide added clarity in lower liquidity conditions. Here are some tools to consider: • ATR (Average True Range): ATR can help you gauge market volatility. During low-liquidity periods, rising ATR values may signal increased volatility, while falling ATR values might indicate a quieter market. • Volume: Monitoring volume is crucial to understand the strength of price moves. During the festive period, lower volume is expected, but an unusual spike can indicate genuine interest in a breakout or trend. • Anchored VWAP: Anchored VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) is a helpful tool for identifying key levels where trading volume has concentrated. Anchoring the VWAP to significant events, such as the start of the festive trading period, can provide dynamic support or resistance levels. • Keltner Channels: These are particularly useful for managing trades. Setting Keltner Channels to 2.5 ATR around a 20-day exponential moving average (standard settings) can help identify overextended moves. For instance, if the price breaks above the upper channel in a long trade, it may be a good signal to take profits into strength. Example: S&P 500 On the S&P 500, we can observe some classic festive market behaviour. While daily volume has remained steady, ATR has been declining since Thanksgiving, dropping to levels not seen since the summer. This suggests the market is consolidating near broken resistance—a key level—aligned with the Keltner Channel’s basis. Just below this area lies the VWAP anchored to the November swing low, creating a zone of confluent support that could attract higher levels of liquidity. S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Summary: The festive season introduces a unique set of market conditions that can challenge even experienced traders. Whether you choose to trade actively or observe from the sidelines, understanding how reduced liquidity affects price behaviour is key to navigating these quieter markets. By focusing on major instruments, refining your risk management, and leveraging key technical indicators like ATR, volume, Anchored VWAP, and Keltner Channels, you can adapt to the rhythm of the season and make the most of what the markets offer during this period. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Capitalcom
KSE 100 is ready for a short CorrectionHow's the Josh Pakistani Traders !! This folk from India is Analyzing your Stock market, I hope you will Like IT!! HERE WE GO WITH THE DETAIL As we can clearly see that market has Completed its Wave 3 (Wave 3 is an impulse wave of Elliot wave structure) and Wave 3 is Extended Wave to 3.618 % of Wave 1. So Wave 4 would be 0.382 % of Wave 3 ( Wave 4 is Corrective wave in Elliot wave theory). SO HERE IS THE TRADE SELL KSE100 @ 118,000-120,000 TARGET @ 87000 SL @ 123,000 NOTE : THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY PLEASE REFER TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE HAVE A GOOD DAY TRADERS
PSX:KSE100Short
by Trading_Bulls0000
NIFTY 50 18th DECEMBER 2024Key Levels Support Levels (Green Lines): 24,222.50: A support area where the price bounced. 24,181.10: Another critical support level and Stop Loss (SL). 24,179.15: Very close to SL, showing the bottom of the current range. Resistance Levels (Red Lines): 24,367.45: Immediate resistance where price previously rejected. 24,481.10: A significant resistance above, marking a key level of rejection earlier. 24,508.05: The upper resistance zone. Current Price Movement 24,292.30: Price is currently at this level, slightly recovering from the low. Price is trading within a box range (highlighted blue/green zone) between 24,181.10 (SL) and 24,367.45 (Resistance). Trade Setup Entry: Likely triggered at 24,222.50 (support bounce). Stop Loss: Around 24,181.10. Target: Immediate target resistance at 24,367.45. This setup appears to have a Risk-to-Reward ratio greater than 1:2, which is favorable.
NSE:NIFTY
by trade_geeks