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DAILY ANALYSIS - XAUUSD (THURS, 19th DECEMBER 2024)Bias: No Bias USD News: -Final GDP q/q -Unemployment Claims Analysis: -Ratecut on FOMC & indications of only 2 rate cut on 2025 -looking for price to retest the bearish structure -Looking for BUY/SELL if there's confirmation on lower timeframe -Pivot point: - Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by HM_fxtrading
GOLD → The FED Rate Decision Ahead: What Should You Do?Dear Traders, Gold (XAUUSD) has made a notable move, successfully testing the strong support level at 2633 before traders shifted into buying mode. As a result, the price broke above 2643, sparking new optimism as upcoming discussions around potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (FED) take center stage. Currently, there is a 93% probability that the FED will cut rates by 25 basis points. However, the overarching theme is the FED's stance for the future. Hawkish hints regarding 2025 could influence the rate-cutting trajectory, an aspect the market has only partially priced in. This means any indication of a smaller rate cut could fuel strength for the U.S. dollar. Conversely, a deeper cut could act as a bullish catalyst for gold. The spotlight is firmly on FED Chair Jerome Powell's comments, as they will provide crucial insights into the economic outlook for 2024 amidst the backdrop of Trump-era policies that continue to play a pivotal role. That said, downside risks for gold remain elevated, particularly if the FED maintains a hawkish stance in the current climate. Technical Analysis: At the moment, gold prices are consolidating within the range of 2658 - 2633, with a breakout in either direction likely to bring about a strong momentum-driven move. The market is complex and highly volatile right now, which is why traders are advised to hold off on entering positions before the event. Waiting for volatility to subside can offer better clarity on market direction and safer opportunities. Final Advice: Patience is key in such turbulent times. Avoid getting swayed by short-term noise and focus on acting only after a clear trend emerges following the major event.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
Nasdaq Bounce or Break? 21340 Becomes the BattlegroundNasdaq futures may have seen an ugly decline following the Fed’s rate decision but it’s noteworthy the price remained respectful of technical levels, bouncing off 21340.75 at the height of the carnage. It’s far too early to call a bottom, especially with momentum indicators mixed: MACD has crossed over from above, generating a bearish signal, but the long-running uptrend in RSI (14) remains intact. Therefore, rather than trying to anticipate directional risks based on thin volumes going through in Asian trade, I’d much rather see how the price action evolves into Europe and US. If the price tests and holds again 21340.75, longs could be established above the level with a stop beneath for protection. Apart from a minor level at 21608, there’s little visual resistance until the record highs. Alternatively, if the price breaks 21340.75 and cannot reverse back higher, you could flip the setup around, selling beneath the level with a stop above for protection. 20984 and important 50-day moving average are nearby levels of note, with a break of the latter opening the possibility of a deeper flush towards 20400. More broadly, for the carnage witnessed following the Fed, its updated rate projections were not significantly different to what traders were anticipating before the event. And when you step back and look at where markets see the funds rate bottoming this cycle, it’s around 70bps higher than where the Fed’s dot plot indicated. What the Fed signalled was a slower pace of cuts, not a large reduction in cuts. One 25bps move was removed from the profile by the end of 2027. That’s it. Based on the market reaction, you’d think multiple cuts were removed! That makes me think the move was more about market positioning rather than a truly monumental hawkish shift, making me question how long the rout can be sustained when that reality sets in.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by FOREXcom
Price still mitigating the July FOMC as I suspectedPrice is still on its way to mitigate the July FOMC level as I suspected a while back. I just got caught up in the short term and forgot about that prior post I made as a likely target. I was wondering why the July FOMC level hasn't been retested lately as the September FOMC level bounced off. It seems to be repeating the December 23 FOMC level where it makes a suspension above the level before coming back down. Now, I will be closing watching the July FOMC level and if price will come to the tick to it before another rally. The arrows marks every time the market dumps down to a previous FOMC level only to halt mere ticks from it without breaching. If the July FOMC level is to not be breached, then it too should dump down into it by mere ticks. I am still bullish on the Dow and am not going to fall for the manipulation. I will expect that low to be taken and articles mentioning extreme bearishness and another crash. This will be about the time the market forms the low and rallies back up to 46,000
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
$XAGUSD 1H Chart: Bullish Shark Pattern with Target at $31.22PEPPERSTONE:XAGUSD Silver has formed the bullish shark pattern previously anticipated at $30.41. The pattern is now complete, and we saw a pullback below this level to $30.13, establishing a new support. The bullish shark pattern formed at $30.40 has a default target at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which is projected at $31.22. Bullish shark pattern formed at $30.41. Price pulled back to $30.13, establishing new support. Target level for the pattern: $31.22.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by Andre_Cardoso
NQ1 Futures: Targeting Liquidity Zones After FVG FillIdea Overview: The market has completed a Fair Value Gap (FVG) fill on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential opportunity to go long, aligned with the primary bullish trend on the daily timeframe. Our strategy focuses on targeting the previous resistance level as the initial objective, followed by a slightly higher zone where future liquidity may reside before a potential trend reversal. Strategy Details: Primary Trend: The daily timeframe confirms a bullish trend, supporting long positions. Fair Value Gap (FVG): The 4-hour FVG provides an optimal entry zone, pending momentum confirmation. Initial Target: The nearest prior resistance level is identified as the first take-profit area. Extended Target: A liquidity-rich zone slightly above the resistance, anticipating price action to absorb liquidity before any significant reversal. Key Notes: Momentum Confirmation: Wait for clear momentum signals before entering. Risk Management: Place stop-losses strategically below the FVG zone or recent swing lows. Confluence: Monitor volume and market sentiment for additional validation. Let’s discuss this idea and refine it further together—share your insights below!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Lordemerson
Crude Oil is looking to clear it's nearest inefficient rangeKeeping it simple we can view this as a lower high > lower low sequence as the high we approached a few days ago was never broken. Clear inefficiency below should be the only range that will hold price up but my eyes are on the lowest daily orderblock at the extreme range retracement. Hourly view shows more detail with support levels being extremely disrespected denoting how sellers have been lurking in the wind. Volume profile also shows super bearish volume in these levels with a small support node below the range.
FX:USOILShort
by HollywooodTrades
Gold - Prepare For A Devastating Drop!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) will create a massive correction: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Gold rallied more than +70% over the past couple of months, basically without showing any real correction. Therefore it is no surprise that after retesting the channel resistance, Gold is now showing some weakness. It is quite likely that this is just the beginning of a significant drop. Levels to watch: $2.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:GOLDShort
by basictradingtv
8
GOLDThe gold price dropped today due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish cut, which sent investors seeking safety into the US Dollar, outpacing demand for gold. As a result, gold fell towards $2,600 and below.. This move was anticipated, as the market had priced in a hawkish cut, and the focus is now on the Fed's expectations for 2025, which suggest fewer interest rate cuts. The drop in gold price is also attributed to the strengthening US Dollar, which is trading near its weekly highs against most major rivals. Additionally, the technical indicators are neutral-to-bearish, developing around their midlines and failing to provide clear directional clues. On dxy rally AUDUSD,USDJPY,EURUSD,USDCAD,GBPUSD will have a change in directional clues
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Shavyfxhub
Bitcoin Futures Confirming 3 Drives of Bearish Divergence In the recent analysis of futures on the daily timeframe, a technical pattern known as the "3 Drives of Divergence" has been confirmed, signaling a potential trend reversal. This pattern, often associated with strong bearish momentum, has been observed with a divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), further supporting the bearish outlook. RSI Divergence: The RSI, a momentum oscillator, shows a bearish divergence where the price makes higher highs, but the RSI makes lower highs. This is a classic sign of weakening upward momentum, often preceding a price decline. Key Levels: Reversal Pivot: If the price closes below 97K on a daily timeframe. This pivot is critical as it is the last resistance before a potential downtrend. Target Futures Gap Fill: Historical price action suggests a gap in the futures market that might get filled. This target zone, marked on the chart, could act as a price magnet for Bitcoin if bearish pressures continue.
CME:BTC1!Short
by RSI_Trading_Concepts
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 - ES Bull FlagI'm beginning to get more bearish for the short term but for now ES continues to hold support around 6,113, which was a previous ATH from the post election rally. It's bullish until it breaks. My best guess is that it will break and will potentially provide a good short opportunity for a move down to demand and a previous swing low near 5,950. Next downside target from there would be 5,800. If it holds I'd expect a move back up to the top end of the range and would be looking for longs on a break and retest or any good dips. This is an interesting spot and seems like a good spot to long, but it could just as easily be a quick flush. It's probably best to wait and see what happens after FOMC before putting on too much risk. There will be a chance to get on board after it chooses a direction. IV is rising, best to wait for it to come down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AdvancedPlays
4
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #4 - VX BreakoutLooks like the market is preparing for some volatility heading into FOMC, which is not something not we've been seeing as of late. We could be due for a sharp correction if this continues, but of course it could also just be some hedging and might not amount to anything. Pretty good looking chart, nice bounce off the low at 15.80, but for now it is still in the range from 15.80 - 16.80. Given the inverse H&S + channel break and bounce at 15.80 I'd expect more upside in the short term, but it has to clear 16.80 first. If it does and keeps going, look out below on ES.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
Silver XAG/USD Bearish FlagThe XAG/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 30.11 2nd Support – 29.86 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
9
XAUUSD - sells in play?Here is our in-depth view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair updated from the previous one. Last time, we took a step back and took a look at XAUUSD from a bigger perspective (H4 time-frame). We are still using H4 to show you the sells we have in play. XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2670s . If you remember our previous long-term view on OANDA:XAUUSD you should remember that after hitting the top of the area at around 2714 (a bit higher) we were automatically looking for sells. We are currently holding a few sell positions at 2680s as the price failed to break higher. Personal opinion: The direction for now is bearish in our opinion. We are looking for sells and we do believe gold could see some massive sell-offs in December before the year of 2024 ends. KEY NOTES - XAUUSD completed the predicted long-term move to the upside. - XAUUSD sells were called at the top of the area (2714). - XAUUSD failed to break higher and is following the long-term analysis. Happy trading! FxPocket
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FxPocket
3
Trading is a Game of Probability------For SMC TradersFocus on Risk Management and High-Probability Setups Trading is fundamentally a game of probabilities, which means you should take risks that align with your capital and personal risk tolerance. There is no "holy grail" strategy in trading. Instead, you need to think from both sides of the equation: start by assessing the risk you’re taking on in a trade rather than focusing on potential profits. When you prioritize managing risk, profits will follow naturally. One of the most common mistakes traders make is to focus solely on profits. They imagine the rewards but fail to account for the risks involved. Trading success comes from understanding and managing the probabilities on both sides—risk and reward. The Foundation of Trading: Risk Management 1.Control Risk Per Trade Self-Funded Accounts: Limit risk to 1%-2% of your account balance per trade. Funded Accounts: Limit risk to 0.25%-1% of your account balance per trade. 2. Adjust Stop Loss Dynamically to Protect Capital When the trade moves in your favor, focus first on securing your stop loss. Once the market breaks a recent high or low, move your stop loss to breakeven. Avoid chasing extreme risk-reward ratios like 1:30 or 1:50, which are often overhyped on social media. In reality, a 1:5 to 1:10 risk-reward ratio is excellent and more realistic. Rather than aiming for exaggerated profits, concentrate on protecting your capital and waiting for high-probability entries. Discipline and Patience: The Keys to Consistent Success Avoid Emotional Trading Emotional trading is a major obstacle to profitability. To succeed, you must remain emotionless and stick to your plan. Only take trades at high-probability Points of Interest (POI) and avoid impulsive entries. Be Patient and Wait for the Right Setup Patience is a vital part of trading. The market doesn’t always offer high-quality opportunities, so it’s crucial to wait for everything to align with your trading plan before entering a trade. Key Takeaways Risk per trade for self-funded accounts: 1%-2% Risk per trade for funded accounts: 0.25%-1% Focus on high-probability trading setups and always protect your capital by adjusting your stop loss. Aim for realistic risk-reward ratios (e.g., 1:5 to 1:10) rather than chasing extreme and impractical goals. Discipline and patience are the foundations of long-term trading success. Remember, trading is a long-term game of probabilities. Protect your capital, trade rationally, and patiently wait for high-probability opportunities to achieve consistent profitability.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Smart-Trader-KIMMM
Trade Idea Setting Up Into Support Santa Rally I am positioning myself to take part in the year-end rally and the December 18th FOMC. I can smell another 8% rally coming. I will see how price gets into the support zone and when it starts holding, I will get in. The stacked highs are the target. The triple top over 45,000. I have a feeling the market will close 2024 over the 45,000 level for headlines. The two biggest clues for this trade Idea is the peak formation low and the creeping trend. Creeping trends are used as order flow for the reversal back up. Once all the shorts start covering, a squeeze happens. What I am looking for is the creeping trend's capitulation into support. There is probably 2000 ticks of upside potential here.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
7