$TLTThis is the monthly chart of TLT dating back to inception. That blue channel predates the GFC and in my mind is an area of value for obtaining a return on risk through the monthly dividend. Nothing fancy, just a decent return using a liquid ETF.
ETF market
$TLT WaitingI like NASDAQ:TLT down here. I'm looking for lower prices to add to my position from the Blue channel. This could end up being my largest position. Not yet though.
SPY 24hr chart with potterboxes and a rangeSPY is trading in this range right now and could break either way anytime. stay patient and positive.
ABCD Move in IBBWith the tech decay started already, the next will be bio-tech. In the long term it pays to be long biotech, but in the short term there is a valuable trade to be made here.
Qqq idea Macd looks bearish qqq did a double top on the weekly now looks very bad . I expect this to hit 450 in the coming weeks . Specially elections coming up the market tends to get volatility on the day .
SMCI LEVERED FOR THE TRUE REBEL SMCX 2 X SMCI FOR THE TRUE REBEL SMCX 2 X SMCI
This one is the 2x Long Etf tracking SMCI
As you know SMCI has been chewed and masticated super hard buy the scary short seller the Hindenburg Report
Well here you have the financials for SMCI and a long read about the Nathan Adreson the creator of the FUD... and the research associated with it for you to make up your mind.
"linkedin.com/pulse/smci-cash-reserves-17-billion-dfc-2024-10666-current-dcf-s-sc-n-e9aye/?trackingId=YS3R4IZ2ST+uWToO3IX1Og=="
bear call spread on QQQThis is obviously over the election.
I THINK ELECTION RESULTS "drag out" and we don't really "know" who wins until 11/15? or something?
Now.. I'll start bumping up my GO TO CASH price anyway. This is essentially a market hedge that IF we trade sideways or have any more down movements, this trade works. IF we DO continue to go higher, I'll be profiting on my general portfolios and positions but I will go to cash around $505.05. BUT we need to hit that # in before 11/5. Otherwise, I'll begin increasing it.
The overall trend is bullish. Bull put spreads DEF make the most sense. This certainly is more of a 'hedging' style trade for me. Not too large of risk.
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 65 Covered Call... for a 62.41 break even.
Comments: High IVR/IV (79/51) plus weakness. Adding a rung to my USO position out in December at break evens better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 62.41
Max Profit: 2.59
ROC at Max: 4.15%
50% Max: 1.30
ROC at 50% Max: 2.07%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; look to roll out the short call on test.
QQQ bull put spreadIf AMZN or AAPL gap down, with both being bear candles today, I believe they would fade.
SAME for the QQQ. REALLY nice move down, but the 100 sma will be a small support and I think NASDAQ:AMZN & NASDAQ:AAPL will have "good earnings". IF AAPL OR AMZN Gap up (and they could) they would both be REALLY solid gaps...
normal election volatilityim buying the election outcome for either candidate. heres my reasoning. both are proposing fiscal spending. both are campaigning on tax cuts. both candidates are contributing to a loosening monetary policy and impact on competition to us ai or agi and semiconductors. big tech runs on venture capital and both candidates are leveraging some form of trade war.
here im looking at svxy for clues about how recession proof the s&p500 is to large cap volatility. based on the recency of the top in svxy i dont think were going to begin a broader market stock recession near all time highs without setting a lower quarterly high that fails to bring us a new weekly uptrend. this looks like selling in the leadup to the election which should be bought whenever the index sets a clear rebound level weekly.
Market Status: I will be stepping aside from the Markets because my "dot" indicator (RSI2) is now RED and we are under the 50sma line. Once my 'dot' indicator go back to yellow, then I will consider looking for new setup. On the RSI5, we are also in overbought zone. Which is good because once we start rebounding we can also to go long. Got to be patient for now. :- )
$QQQ - trendline channel break to the downside. QQQ- ETF below trendline channel with support at $482. ETF failed to hold $500 again after breaking out. if breaks below $482 we can see $470 and $460. ETF is weak on indicator as well and looking to pull lower.
$SPY November 1, 2024AMEX:SPY November 1, 2024
15 Minutes.
Gap down did not allow to initiate any short which were closed earlier around 579 levels.
575 supports did not hold and AMEX:SPY continued to make lows.
For the large rise 539.95 to 586.12 4SPY retraced to 38.2 % levels and also 50-day average in daily.
If this is not supported, we can expect 558-=562 levels which is 100 averages.
If we see the daily chart 565 is important to hold.
If this is broken, we have a history where AMEX:SPY went back to 539-540 levels twice from that number.
No trade day today.
How ever for the fall 583.32 to 568.44 a retracement to 578 levels will give a chance to short. Depending on moving averages. At the moment SL is 580 being 200 averages in 15 minutes.
We are having an oscillator divergence at lows near close. So, i expect a retracement.
Spy idea I think it gaps down tomorrow morning and then retrace after touching the 566 area support . RSI in the one hour looks really bad bulls would be buying this Deep and I will buy some calls at this level
SPY Technical Analysis for Nov. 1, 2024Resistance Levels:
$578.35: Immediate overhead resistance where recent selling pressure has been observed. This level could act as a barrier, especially in the early trading session.
$583.29 to $584.50: Stronger resistance range. If SPY pushes above this, it could signal potential for further upside, but watch for rejection around this range if volume decreases.
Support Levels:
$569.40: Immediate support where buyers may step in. This level aligns with recent price action, showing buying interest.
$568.44: Lower support level that has seen demand in the past. A breakdown here could lead to more downside pressure.
Price Action and Trend:
The chart shows a recent downtrend with a slight rebound today. If momentum carries into tomorrow, we may see a test of the $578.35 resistance.
The MACD indicator shows a potential shift in momentum, suggesting a possible short-term recovery if it crosses upward.
Entry/Exit Suggestions:
Bullish Entry: Consider entering above $578.35 with volume confirmation. Target the $583.29 to $584.50 resistance zone for a short-term exit. Place a stop below $578.35 to manage risk.
Bearish Entry: If SPY fails to break above $578.35 and shows weakness, consider a short entry with a target around $569.40. Stop loss should be set just above $578.35 to limit losses.
Volume Analysis:
Volume on this pullback suggests a strong interest level around current support zones. An increase in volume at resistance or support could indicate strength in the next price direction.
"Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Please conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any trading decisions."
DIA is going up in October ...I suspect the DIA will start to go up in October. The 4 hour, 5 hour and 6 hour indicators have already indicated a move up. So the 7 hour and daily indicators will follow shortly. If you look at the 7 hour Directional Movement Indicator, you can see that the +DI is just turning and it is looking like a move up.
I just started to use the Heikin-Ashi candlesticks as I find they show more of a definite direction on the chart itself. But I am still learning about this. :-) But you can see on the chart how you can see a definite direction on the chart itself. The Heikin-Ashi candlesticks are fascinating. I am trying to learn more about them.
I use the MacD, DMI and the Stochastic RSI as my indicators, currently.
I am using the fibonacci tool to give me a general idea for a target. But I am not using it correctly.
The DIA has typically been moving between 25 - 30 points per move up so I am anticipating a move to 438. I anticipate it will move up until Oct. 20th - 22nd, then trade sideways before the election. After the election, regardless of who wins we will see the market go up.
We are also in the 5th wave of the Elliot wave, so it's not surprising we will move up.
I realize this is similar to my post about the SPY but I just thought I would try the DIA. I may expand my horizons looking at a different symbol!
Happy Trading Everyone!
SPY adjusted in July for the election ...In July, the market adjusted slightly to prepare for the upcoming election on Nov. 5th, 2024. The SPY was usually topping out around the 22nd of the month, and started to go back up around the beginning of each month. But in July the downward movement lasted a little longer. (I circled the area where it started to adjust) and it started to go back up around August 6th.
I suspect the market will start to go up tomorrow as the 4 hour, 5 hour indicators started to show a move upward. I believe it will gap up tomorrow and continue to go up. I should have entered today but missed my chance.
I just started to use the Heikin-Ashi candlesticks as I find they show more of a definite direction on the chart itself. But I am still learning about this. :-) But you can see on the chart how you can see a definite direction on the chart itself.
I use the MacD, DMI and the Stochastic RSI as my indicators.
The SPY will move between 32 to 40 pts this month before a brief retracement prior to the election. This was the average movement in the past few months.
I use the fib tool to get a general approximation of the target. I'm not exact on how to use the tool so my targets are a little off.
I suspect the target will be around 598 (3.618 fib) to 604 (4.236 fib)
It should hit this target around Oct 22 -25th before trading sideways or going slightly lower prior to the US election.
After the election, the market will go back up.
Happy trading, everyone!!
Slowly starting to scale in on OILThe fundamental outlook for oil is looking bullish. Despite seasonality favoring lower crude oil prices towards the end of the year, the conflicts in the Middle East are pushing prices higher.
Technically, the downward move that has been in place since the beginning of July could now experience a correction. Therefore, I’ll begin slowly scaling into oil at the 61.8% retracement level, keeping in mind that prices could drop further before the end of the year.
According to seasonality, we could see the high in oil prices around May 2025.
Let’s see how it plays out.
XIT longWell Tech just keeps going, at the Canadian markets are out preforming the US so are the ETF's reflecting them. This is now my preferred ETF vs XQQ and TEC.
XIC LongSimple TSX tracking ETF trending up. Entry here as US is uncertain, US has been performing better but stalled. SL several weeks behind but will move to BE soon.
SPY Prediction 10/31/2024 SPY might hit the support level on the chart and fill the Gap. If not we are looking for the support level below
#TECL - FVG & Orderblock overlapThe yellow box is the FVG that overlaps with the green box #Order_Block (#supply_area); the overlap (~$72-$73 ) could be the potential #smart_money activity zone.
$SPY tough spot right now, but there's still a glimmer of hope!On the daily chart, there are three bearish signals without even considering indicators:
1. Price is below the EMAs.
2. With a gap down.
3. From a coil spring.
On the weekly chart, the trend remains intact. However, if we drop below the fast EMA, a significant test will be the slow EMA.
The key level to watch is the low of the daily channel line at $554, which aligns with the weekly slow EMA at approximately $551. For me, that represents the definitive line in the sand for SPY.
