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SHORT MSTXSHORT MSTX - High-Probability Setup I'm sharing my analysis on MSTX with a short position in mind, leveraging a calculated risk/reward approach. Here's the breakdown of my thought process: Technical Overview Current Price: $101.53 Stop Loss: $118.14 (16.75% risk) Target Price: $62.28 (38.45% reward) Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.3 Key Indicators & Analysis Bollinger Bands: The price is showing volatility contraction, which often precedes significant price movement. Moving Averages: The red MA suggests bearish momentum aligning with a trend reversal. Volume Profile: A spike in volume near recent highs indicates selling pressure. Reasoning This trade is based on the hypothesis of a potential breakdown below the $100 psychological support. Given the steep climb followed by a pullback, there is a strong probability of further downside toward the $60-$62 zone, where previous support lies. The stop loss at $118 accounts for a potential false breakout, while the target ensures a favorable reward relative to the risk taken. Let me know your thoughts or if you see other opportunities in MSTX! Always open to feedback and discussion. Happy trading!
NASDAQ:MSTXShort
by StayoA1
Measured Moves: A Guide to Finding TargetsMeasured Moves: A Guide to Finding Targets Visualizing the boundaries of price movement helps anticipate potential swing points. The concept of measured moves offers a structured framework to estimate future price behavior, based on the observation that each swing move often mirrors the size of the previous one, assuming average price volatility remains consistent. While not exact, this approach provides a practical method to approximate the extension of a swing move. Background Determining profit targets across various methods and timeframes can be challenging. To address this, I reviewed the tactics of experienced traders and market research, noting key similarities and differences. Some traders relied more on discretion, while others used technical targets or predetermined risk-to-reward ratios. Levels of support and resistance (S/R) and the Fibonacci tool frequently appeared, though their application varied by trader. Based on current evidence, levels appear most relevant when tied to the highest and lowest swing points within the current price structure, for example in a range-bound market. In contrast, sporadic or subtle levels from historical movements seem no more significant than random points. The Fibonacci tool can provide value since measurements are based on actual price range; however, the related values have limited evidence to support them. To explore these ideas, I conducted measurements on over a thousand continuation setups to identify inherent or consistent patterns in swing moves. It’s important to emphasize that tools and indicators should never be used blindly. Trading requires self-leadership and critical thinking. The application of ideas without understanding their context or validity undermines the decision-making process and leads to inconsistent results. This concept formed the foundation for my analysis, ensuring that methods were tested rather than taken at face value. Definitions Trending price movement advances in steps, either upward or downward. This includes a stronger move followed by a weaker corrective move, also known as a retracement. When the corrective move is done and prices seem to resume the prevailing trend, we can use the prior move to estimate targets; this is known as a projection. For example, if a stock moves up by 10%, pauses, and subsequently makes another move, we can utilize that value to estimate the potential outcome. Well thats the idea.. Data Through manual measurements across various timeframes, price structures, and stock categories, I have gathered data on retracements and projections. However, this information should not be considered precise due to market randomness and inherent volatility. In fact, deviations—such as a notable failure to reach a target or overextensions—can indicate a potential structural change. As this study was conducted with a manual approach, there is a high risk of selection bias, which raises concerns about the methodology's reliability. However, it allows for a more discretionary perspective, enabling observations and discretion that might be overlooked in a purely automated analysis. To simplify the findings, the presented values below represent a combination of all the data. Retracement Tool In the context of price movements within a trend, specifically continuation setups, retracements typically fall between 20% and 50% of the prior move. While retracements beyond 50% are less common, this does not necessarily invalidate the setup. From my observations, two distinct patterns emerge. First, a shallow retracement where the stock consolidates within a narrow range, typically pulling back no more than 10% to 20% before continuing its trend. Second, a deeper retracement, often around 50%, followed by a nested move higher before a continuation. For those referencing commonly mentioned values (though not validated), levels such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 44.7%, and 50% align with this range. Additionally, 18% frequently appears as a notable breakout point. However, I strongly advise against relying on precise numbers with conviction due to the natural volatility and randomness inherent in the market. Instead, a more reliable approach is to maintain a broad perspective—for example, recognizing that retracements in the 20% to 50% range are common before a continuation. This approach allows flexibility and helps account for the variability in price action. Projection Tool When there is a swing move either upward or downward, we can utilize the preceding one of the same type for estimation. This approach can be used exclusively since it is applicable for retracements, projections, and range-bound markets as long as there has been a similar price event in recent time. In terms of projection, the most common range is between 60% and 120% of the prior move, with 70% to 100% being more prevalent. It is uncommon for a stock to exceed 130% of the preceding move. Frequently mentioned values in this context include 61.8% and 78.6% as one area, although these values are frequently surpassed. The next two commonly mentioned values are 88.6% and 100%, which are the most frequent and can be used effectively on their own. These values represent a complete measured move, as they closely mimic the magnitude of the prior move with some buffer. The last value, 127%, is also notable, but exceeding this level is less common. Application The simplest application of this information is to input the range of 80% to 100% into the projection tool. Then, measure a similar prior move to estimate the subsequent one. This is known as the measured move. There are no strict rules to follow—it’s more of an art. The key is to measure the most similar move in recent times. If the levels appear unclear or overly complicated, they likely are. The process should remain simple and combined with a discretionary perspective. Interestingly, using parallel channels follows the same principle, as they measure the range per swing and project average volatility. This can provide an alternative yet similar way to estimate price movement based on historical swings. The advantage of this method is its universal and adaptable nature for setting estimates. However, it requires a prior swing move and is most effective in continuation setups. Challenges arise when applying it to the start of a new move, exhaustion points, or structural changes, as these can distort short-term price action. For instance, referencing a prior uptrend to project a downtrend is unlikely to be effective due to the opposing asymmetry in swing moves. In some cases, measured moves from earlier periods can be referenced if the current range is similar. Additionally, higher timeframes take precedence over lower ones when determining projections. This is nothing more than a tool and should be used with a discretionary perspective, as with all indicators and drawing tools. The true edge lies elsewhere. Example Use 1. Structure: Identify an established trend or range and measure a clear swing move. 2. Measured Move: Apply the measurement to the subsequent move by duplicating the line to the next point or using a trend-based Fibonacci extension tool set to 100% of the prior swing. The first two points define the swing move. The third point is placed at the deepest part of the subsequent pullback or at the start of the new move. 3. Interpretation: While this is a simple tool, its effective use and contextual application require experience and practice. Remember, this process relies on approximation and discretionary judgment.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Trader-Shah
12
SPY The Target Is DOWN! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for SPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 602.45 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 588.60 My Stop Loss - 609.83 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
10
QQQ A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for QQQ below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 505.79 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 502.68 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AnabelSignals
1
End of Year Palladium Bull Run \o/From the current notation, I see this leveraged ETF on Palladium rising approximately 45% until the end of the year. The reasons are as follows: Fundamental Factors : With increasing sanctions on Russia, one of the main exporters of palladium, global supply may become constrained. Furthermore, inflationary pressures might drive commodity prices higher. Technical Indicators : The Palladium chart has recently formed a higher high, and a higher low appears to be developing. The price has crossed above the 200-day SMA, and now the 30-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs are bullishly aligned. Seasonality: The seasonal strength in OANDA:XPDUSD is expected to begin the week after next. So, we could get ready for rising prices in Palladium!
LSE:2PALLong
by p4917
BITO's Elliot Waves on 1DTwo resistance nodes were found on $28.44 and $33.67 on the daily TF. Based on the MCB indicator, there is no sign of bearish divergence on both lower and higher TF. Daily RSI is at the overbought area, and two nodes on the VWAP show two possible prices at (0.618/0.768). Hoping for a healthy pull-back to $21.5 to pick up more shares. No plan to shrink my holding until the $40+ area. I think it will take us at least 6 months to reach the $40 area, and on MCB, I will expect to see both MF/VWAP trending out with a ton of bearish divergences.
AMEX:BITOLong
by Tri-EET
2
Opening (IRA): TQQQ January 17th 65 Covered Call... for a 61.79 debit. Comments: Adding a "rung" at a break even better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.79/share Max Profit: 3.21 ($321) ROC at Max: 5.20% 50% Max: 1.62 ($162) ROC at 50% Max: 2.60% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit test (which is at 63.40).
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
UNG ETF for NATURAL GAS - READ THE NOTES IMPORTANTNow Nat Gas is trading for $2.3 per BTU In Europe it sells much higher between $70 and $100 per BTU The Biden Administration over regulated the Nat Gas industry in the USA, and many users of the commodity switched to other fuels like Coal for example and Solar and Wind. Ineficient. NAT GAS coupled with Scrubbing Technology is litterally 99.9% clean. Dipnts makes great scrubbers. Now Nat Gas moves in four year cycles, well as you can see when Biden took office it was operating normally at $130 for the UNG. Finnaly everyone realized that NAT GAs from America is the way to go. One Liquified Gas Tanker per month keeps the lights on in London. Gas then is obviously the way to go, not wind nor solar. EEUU had been supplied by Iran through QATAR, this is theoretical but super likely. Trump will reopen our energy industry, but the damage the Biden White House made is expensive. We could be facing shortages, as gas storage deposit have been partially depleted. and Production costs are indeed $7 per BTU at $7 UNG should trade at the conversion near $130 more or less. please do your own work and be diligent. User of nat gas are looking at the situation and will use likely UNG as a hedge. I bought some and maybe you should too. This is not financial advise, as you all understand we post to participate together in addressing capital allocation and solving future needs. In this case hedging against volatility.
AMEX:UNGLong
by imcnf5c4ff
Risk Appetite at a Crossroads: SPY vs. TLT Nears Key ResistanceIntroduction: A classic market indicator for gauging risk appetite is the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . The premise is simple yet powerful: when stocks outperform bonds, the market is in a "risk-on" environment, favoring equities. Conversely, when bonds outperform stocks, it signals a "risk-off" environment, favoring safety. For years, this ratio has trended upward within an ascending price channel, reflecting the dominance of equities over bonds in delivering superior returns. However, the ratio is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, a critical juncture for assessing the next phase of market dynamics. Analysis: Risk-On vs. Risk-Off: The SPY-to-TLT ratio provides a clear view of market sentiment. A rising ratio reflects confidence in equities, while a declining ratio indicates a shift toward safety in bonds. Long-Term Uptrend: The ratio has been in a well-defined uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows. This trend underscores the market's preference for stocks over bonds in recent years. Current Situation: As the ratio nears the upper boundary of its price channel, the potential for a slowdown or reversal increases. While the long-term uptrend remains intact, a pullback could signal a temporary period where bonds (TLT) outperform stocks (SPY). Interest Rate Outlook: With interest rates potentially declining next year, bonds could see increased demand. However, as long as the ratio remains within its channel and continues to rise, the "risk-on" environment remains dominant. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is nearing a pivotal level that could influence market sentiment in the coming months. While the "risk-on" trend remains intact for now, a shift in dynamics could occur if the ratio fails to break through its resistance. Traders and investors should monitor this ratio closely to navigate potential shifts between equity and bond performance. What’s your outlook on this key indicator? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key resistance and support levels) Tags: #RiskAppetite #Stocks #Bonds #SPY #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
SPY Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart). Nov. 29, 2024Market Overview: SPY is showing a mix of consolidation and minor recovery from recent selling pressure, with price action testing key levels. The overall structure remains in an upward trend on larger timeframes but appears to be encountering short-term resistance. Key Observations: 1. Trend Line: * A rising trend line was recently broken, indicating potential weakness. The price is now consolidating below this level, showing a retest scenario. * If SPY reclaims the trend line with strong momentum, it could suggest renewed bullishness. 2. Support & Resistance: * Support Levels: * $595.24: A strong intraday support, acting as a pivot point. * $590: The next significant support zone to watch if selling accelerates. * Resistance Levels: * $601.33-$602.13: Immediate resistance; a break above could attract buyers. * $605: A psychological resistance level. 3. MACD: * The MACD is in a bearish crossover but is starting to flatten, indicating a potential slowdown in selling pressure. * Look for a bullish crossover as a signal for upward momentum. 4. Volume: * Volume has decreased, reflecting the holiday week. Light volume could lead to exaggerated price moves, so caution is warranted. Trading Plan: Scalping: * Bullish Setup: * Entry: Above $601.33. * Target: $603.50-$605. * Stop-Loss: Below $599. * Bearish Setup: * Entry: Below $595. * Target: $590-$592. * Stop-Loss: Above $597. Swing Trade: * Bullish Swing: * Entry: On a daily close above $602. * Target: $610. * Stop-Loss: Below $599. * Bearish Swing: * Entry: Below $590 with confirmation. * Target: $585. * Stop-Loss: Above $592. My Thoughts: * SPY’s ability to reclaim and hold above the broken trend line will dictate the next move. A failure to reclaim could result in a continued pullback. * Watch the $601-$602 zone closely for signs of a breakout or rejection. * Given the low-volume environment due to the shortened trading week, consider smaller position sizes to manage risk. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own due diligence and use proper risk management when trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
ETFMG Alternative Harvest | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # ETFMG Alternative Harvest - Double Formation | VWAP 1&2 Aligned To Formation Bias On Hold - Retracement | Short Set Up At 0.382 - 012345 | Invalid Target | Wave 3 Underway Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Neutral
AMEX:MJ
by TradePolitics
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed Awakening. Series IIIt's gone 3 weeks or so, since Mr. Trump has secured a win over his Democrat-rival Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as it declared by the Associated Press. Since that, a lot of stocks soared in a meme-style mode, while Bitcoin almost cleared $100,000 and Dogecoin soared amid Trump-fueled crypto rally. However macro data still stoke fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too slow with cutting interest rates. Non-farm payroll added just 12K new places last month. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.5%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. Fresh ISM release is scheduled on Dec 02, 2024 (47.5 points forecasted), and labor market data is on the radars on Friday, Dec 06 (+183K non-farm payroll forecasted). The main technical graph is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format, and it indicates on Reversed Head-and-Shoulders technical structure in development, as it's been discussed in earlier published ideas. Moreover, huge 200-Week SMA breakthrough is on the investments radars also. What does it mean for Bond Market?.. Potentially "Good", to jump to all-time high. ... and for Stock Market?.. Potentially "Also Good", until it reach the fever pitch.
AMEX:AGG
by Pandorra